Winter Challenge Stakes (Entries)

[Man o Taz]

Hi Curtis. See what I mean about speed figures? Chrome was given a 104 Beyer for the Winter Challenge even though he ran fast and won by 12. Those who have a lot of faith in such numbers would say Chrome regressed by 15 points from the Breeders Cup Classic, but that's obviously nonsense. I'm glad I predicted it would be a low number instead of waiting until after it was published to comment. The Winter Challenge was an ungraded stakes on a track not among the tops in the sport, and against lower class horses. No way in heck it would receive a big Beyer even if Chrome sprouted wings and won in 30 seconds.

Some people also say the BCC was Chrome's best race because he was assigned his highest Beyer of 119, but the BCC was not his best race. The Dubai World Cup was by far his best race. He won in track record time with his saddle slipped over his hips. But, of course, the DWC was not rated by Beyer, so there's no artificial ratings number for it. I wanted to add this photo (courtesy Taylor Made Stallions) of Chrome winning the DWC as a reminder of just what an amazing performance that was by both Chrome and Victor:

While I have had misgivings about BSFs in the past, I have to agree with peeptoad that they do serve an important purpose. But they do not tell the whole story. And they are not intended to.

Do you expect a horse that has peaked with a BSF to run similar BSFs every subsequent outing?

The fact is that Chrome's top BSF was 113 for the 2014 BC Classic. His next race he ran in the San Antonio against Shared Belief...SB received a 106..so Chrome probably got a 103-104 finishing a length and a half in back of SB. Did Chrome regress 10 points? Or was his performance in the BC Classic an anomaly performance?

Folks here know I am as big a fan of California Chrome as anyone and no big fan of BSFs. But the fact is that Arrogate ran two 120 BSFs and Chrome ran a career best 119 and while he had run top BSFs of 113, 112, and 111 this year his numbers were not off the charts like Arrogate's.

And while I think Chrome's Dubai World Cup performance was strong, I actually think his career best performance before the 2016 BC Classic was his performance in the Pacific Classic, and not in the Dubai World Cup. Post-BC Classic I think that his career best performance is the 2016 BC Classic. And this will remain his career best performance in my mind no matter what happens in the Pegasus, simply because I find it unlikely the the field for the Pegasus will rival that of the BC Classic no matter what the speed figure, final time, etc. 

Now, could Chrome run a 120 plus BSF winning the Pegasus Stakes beating Arrogate? I think so. I think he has that capability. That level of talent. But loping home in he Winter Challenge was not that performance.

[peeptoad]

To be fair, I think CA Chrome is more worried about Chromie's Wikipedia page than how speed figures are derived.😉  For the record, I guessed that Chromie ran a 106 on Saturday, so I don't think 104 is that out of line and with no pace to set him up, it figures Point Piper would have regressed. The track was hard as a rock. The Baffert broke his maiden in 8 and change and didn't Dorf have a CA bred 2yo go 35 and change for a mile?  It's not like Chromie's fast race was an aberration.  Also, California Chrome ran a far better race in the BCC. He was chased early by top horses and trounced all but one.  Saturday's race was akin to a future HOF MLB player hitting a tape measure HR while on a rehab assignment in Single A. Fun to watch but......  I know I'm preaching to the choir Peep.

Yes, you are probably right about the Wiki page, however I cringe when people won't even take the time to learn about the stuff that they complain about. I might be guilty of this as well for all I know...  And, yes, you are preaching to the choir.   
Maybe I came off too harsh in my last post, and Chrome is an excellent horse who just trounced a bad field without even taking a deep breath, so no one should be shocked that the number came back like it did. But, they are, after all, animals whose speed figs (and relative performances) wax and wane over time, not machines that progressively get faster and faster until the sound barrier is broken.

..and now I'm the one doing the preaching. So I go now. Lunch break is almost over anyhow.
:chickendance:

[stark]

Sorry I brought up the BSF's in the first place, I forget we're not all about gambling, handicapping, comparisons and history here.

But now I have a question about the morning line maker who is obviously a gelding.  If ever a horse deserved to be 1/9, this had to be it with a $50,000 minus pool that the house had to pay out. 

What was he thinking, 1/5 

Do you recall any G1 type horses that were 1/9 on the morning line??
Just curious, thanks.

[OaklawnCapper]

Sorry I brought up the BSF's in the first place, I forget we're not all about gambling, handicapping, comparisons and history here.

But now I have a question about the morning line maker who is obviously a gelding.  If ever a horse deserved to be 1/9, this had to be it with a $50,000 minus pool that the house had to pay out. 

What was he thinking, 1/5 

Do you recall any G1 type horses that were 1/9 on the morning line??
Just curious, thanks.

Stark I will go through my old programs when I get home, but it seems like I recall seeing a 1/9 ML on a HoF horse.  Ive got one in my office I just got and Seattle Slew was 1/5 ML when he made his debut in 1978 in an Allowance race at Aqueduct.

[curtis]

Sorry I brought up the BSF's in the first place, I forget we're not all about gambling, handicapping, comparisons and history here.

But now I have a question about the morning line maker who is obviously a gelding.  If ever a horse deserved to be 1/9, this had to be it with a $50,000 minus pool that the house had to pay out. 

What was he thinking, 1/5 

Do you recall any G1 type horses that were 1/9 on the morning line??
Just curious, thanks.

I think 1/5 is as low as I've ever seen a m/l maker go. In Chromie's case, 1/9 would have been an overlay. Conversely, 50-1 is as high as you usually see.  It was laughable to think that many of those horses would go off at as low as 50-1.

[CA_Chrome]

Everyone...please understand that I never intend disrespect to other posters when commenting on this (or any) forum. My opinion regarding speed figures is just that, an opinion. I think there are more people who find value in them than those, like me, who don't, and this is borne out by the fact that Taylor Made is using Chrome's several triple digit Beyers in their stallion advertising. Yet even though mine is a minority opinion, I am not and never will be a fan of speed figures, because they are totally subjective in my view.

Regarding Chrome's best race, I am by no means alone in saying his win in the Dubai World Cup was his best race. Matt and Christina on TVG's Morning Line show before the Winter Challenge rated Chrome's top 10 races. They also picked the DWC as his best race. Here's a link where you can find parts 1 and 2 of their review (scroll down about mid page): https://twitter.com/tvgjoaquin However, the DWC does not have a speed figure attached to it, so people who do respect speed figures will insist that the BCC was his best race. But that's ok. In the long run, it isn't important. What's done is done and we can only look ahead. Looking back is pointless.

[CA_Chrome]

Sorry I brought up the BSF's in the first place,

Stark, please don't be sorry for bringing up the BSF's (or any topic). From my point of view, this has been a good and pleasant discussion. 

[Man o Taz]

Chrome's top 12 races...IMHO
1. 2016 Breeders Cup Classic
2. 2016 Pacific Classic
3. 2016 Dubai World Cup
4. 2014 Breeders Cup Classic
5. 2016 San Diego Handicap
6. 2016 Awesome Again Stakes
7. 2014 San Felipe
8. 2014 Kentucky Derby
9.  2016 Winter Challenge 
10. 2014 Santa Anita Derby
11. 2014 Preakness Stakes
12. 2014 Hollywood Derby 

Regarding speed figures, I think that many people try and use them as representations of things that they are not. Myself, I do not totally understand them which is why I often take them with a grain of salt.

[peeptoad]

Chrome's top 12 races...IMHO
1. 2016 Breeders Cup Classic
2. 2016 Pacific Classic
3. 2016 Dubai World Cup

I agree these are his best 3, regardless of speed figs. I actually think the Classic was his best career race, despite the loss. I also thought Zenyatta's loss to Blame was probably her best career race as well, given the quality of the competition and her furious late rally.

[stark]

Regarding speed figures, I think that many people try and use them as representations of things that they are not. Myself, I do not totally understand them which is why I often take them with a grain of salt.

Just curious, what sort of quantifiable measurable statistic do you use to compare horses performances?

Seems like everybody produces a speed figure, Equibase, Brisnet, Ragozin, Thorograph to name a few.  The formula, about as secret as CocaCola, differs for each as some emphasize weight carried and ground lost while racing wide while others will include wind resistance.  But the fact is that there is a unit of measure for comparison's sake, which ever speed figure you choose to use.

Seems to me to be a basic requirement, athletes can always quote you their fastest marathon time but do they take into consideration the hills and valleys in mile 23 and make adjustments to their raw final time?  What do you use if not a speed figure of some sort??
thanks.

[stark]

[CA_Chrome]

Seems to me to be a basic requirement, athletes can always quote you their fastest marathon time but do they take into consideration the hills and valleys in mile 23 and make adjustments to their raw final time?  What do you use if not a speed figure of some sort??
thanks.

If you type "speed figures" into a Google search, you'll see that only horse racing comes up. To the best of my knowledge, no form of human racing uses speed figures. They only use final times in foot racing, bike racing, car racing, etc. In horse racing, speed figures are seen as a handicapping tool. Are they effective for that purpose? I'm sure it depends on who is answering that question and what experience they have had using figs. Here's is an interesting article from TwinSpires.com by Derek Simon, March 6, 2015 -- Are Speed Figures Still Important? http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2015/3/6/are-speed-figures-still-important -- The article contains some solid research and might help answer some of your questions.

[stark]

If you type "speed figures" into a Google search, you'll see that only horse racing comes up. To the best of my knowledge, no form of human racing uses speed figures. They only use final times in foot racing, bike racing, car racing, etc. In horse racing, speed figures are seen as a handicapping tool. Are they effective for that purpose? I'm sure it depends on who is answering that question and what experience they have had using figs. Here's is an interesting article from TwinSpires.com by Derek Simon, March 6, 2015 -- Are Speed Figures Still Important? http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2015/3/6/are-speed-figures-still-important -- The article contains some solid research and might help answer some of your questions.

For the life of me I can't figure out the importance of any analysis in horse racing that only looks at the the single last race in a horse's past performances.  All that number crunching for what?  Are we to believe that people use that system and thus wound up with a negative ROI?  Shame on them!

And if we could bet on humans in the Boston Marathon you can bet there'd be some speed figures as well as a shoe board for the handicappers.

[CA_Chrome]

Stark, my strong suit most definitely is not math, lol, so possibly that's one element in my skepticism of speed figures. What I do have is a lifetime of watching horses race going back to my childhood in the 1959/1960 period. Who knows how many races I've seen in that half-century. Certainly thousands. So I rely on what I see rather than on numbers on paper. For example, people who rely on speed figures will assume that Chrome regressed from the BCC to the Winter Challenge because his Beyer dropped 15 points, but I know without any doubt that isn't so because of Chrome's behavior and body language before, during and after the Winter Challenge.

What I would like to see leading up to and during the Pegasus for Chrome are the following:

No changes in his workout pattern (prior to BCC his pattern was changed due to weather).
No media or others not on Team Chrome hanging around his stall for hours prior to the race so the horse has a chance to rest and relax.
Chrome drawing outside or nearly outside.
Before the race, Chrome behaving as full of himself as he did before the Winter Challenge.
Victor riding the kind of smart race he's capable of running (as in the DWC).
And, of course, a clean, safe trip.

[peeptoad]

For example, people who rely on speed figures will assume that Chrome regressed from the BCC to the Winter Challenge because his Beyer dropped 15 points...

The vast majority of people I know who use figs do not believe this, so I have to ask how you came to this conclusion?
Honest question...