Started by CA_Chrome, December 15, 2016, 04:08:47 AM
Previous topic - Next topicQuote from: curtis on December 19, 2016, 08:10:29 AM
To be fair, I think CA Chrome is more worried about Chromie's Wikipedia page than how speed figures are derived.😉 For the record, I guessed that Chromie ran a 106 on Saturday, so I don't think 104 is that out of line and with no pace to set him up, it figures Point Piper would have regressed. The track was hard as a rock. The Baffert broke his maiden in 8 and change and didn't Dorf have a CA bred 2yo go 35 and change for a mile? It's not like Chromie's fast race was an aberration. Also, California Chrome ran a far better race in the BCC. He was chased early by top horses and trounced all but one. Saturday's race was akin to a future HOF MLB player hitting a tape measure HR while on a rehab assignment in Single A. Fun to watch but...... I know I'm preaching to the choir Peep.
Quote from: stark on December 19, 2016, 10:05:29 AM
Sorry I brought up the BSF's in the first place, I forget we're not all about gambling, handicapping, comparisons and history here.
But now I have a question about the morning line maker who is obviously a gelding. If ever a horse deserved to be 1/9, this had to be it with a $50,000 minus pool that the house had to pay out.
What was he thinking, 1/5
Do you recall any G1 type horses that were 1/9 on the morning line??
Just curious, thanks.
Quote from: stark on December 19, 2016, 10:05:29 AMI think 1/5 is as low as I've ever seen a m/l maker go. In Chromie's case, 1/9 would have been an overlay. Conversely, 50-1 is as high as you usually see. It was laughable to think that many of those horses would go off at as low as 50-1.
Sorry I brought up the BSF's in the first place, I forget we're not all about gambling, handicapping, comparisons and history here.
But now I have a question about the morning line maker who is obviously a gelding. If ever a horse deserved to be 1/9, this had to be it with a $50,000 minus pool that the house had to pay out.
What was he thinking, 1/5
Do you recall any G1 type horses that were 1/9 on the morning line??
Just curious, thanks.
Quote from: stark on December 19, 2016, 10:05:29 AM
Sorry I brought up the BSF's in the first place,
Quote from: Man o Taz on December 20, 2016, 06:35:39 AM
Chrome's top 12 races...IMHO
1. 2016 Breeders Cup Classic
2. 2016 Pacific Classic
3. 2016 Dubai World Cup
Quote from: Man o Taz on December 20, 2016, 06:35:39 AM
Regarding speed figures, I think that many people try and use them as representations of things that they are not. Myself, I do not totally understand them which is why I often take them with a grain of salt.
Quote from: stark on December 20, 2016, 09:52:11 AMSeems to me to be a basic requirement, athletes can always quote you their fastest marathon time but do they take into consideration the hills and valleys in mile 23 and make adjustments to their raw final time? What do you use if not a speed figure of some sort??
thanks.
Quote from: CA_Chrome on December 20, 2016, 05:29:55 PM
If you type "speed figures" into a Google search, you'll see that only horse racing comes up. To the best of my knowledge, no form of human racing uses speed figures. They only use final times in foot racing, bike racing, car racing, etc. In horse racing, speed figures are seen as a handicapping tool. Are they effective for that purpose? I'm sure it depends on who is answering that question and what experience they have had using figs. Here's is an interesting article from TwinSpires.com by Derek Simon, March 6, 2015 -- Are Speed Figures Still Important? http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2015/3/6/are-speed-figures-still-important -- The article contains some solid research and might help answer some of your questions.
Quote from: CA_Chrome on December 20, 2016, 06:48:49 PM
For example, people who rely on speed figures will assume that Chrome regressed from the BCC to the Winter Challenge because his Beyer dropped 15 points...