Quote from: Raven on July 25, 2018, 02:14:23 PM
All the others did what they were told to do to.
I dont blame the horse or the owners or the trainer, they had a nice run with him,  they put him on the self because we was nowhere close to a world beater that other TC winners were!

And your proof of this is?  Before the TC started, the prevailing consensus was what a strong, deep crop this was so now one horse proved to be the best and because of simple, present day economics, he can't possibly compare to twelve other horses through history, eleven of which raced in completely incomparable eras?  Sometimes, after reading some of these boards, I think the real money isn't in betting on these horses it's in designing a stylish tinfoil hat, the kind you could wear on Derby Day, to Saratoga or to Del Mar Opening Day.

Quote from: stark on July 25, 2018, 02:25:19 PM
Blame the owners for cowardice?

Shirley, you jest.

The insurance annual premium to keep running was about $4,200,000. 

On what planet does it make sense to keep running for another trophy for the mantle?

As we all know, being the good handicappers that we are, handicapping any given race is difficult enough to review the 10 horses facing each other in the 7th race.......yet for some unknown reason, those same otherwise bright individuals find it necessary to handicap horses that ran in 2018 with 1979 and 1973 and beyond while trying to determine who is best.....an impossible endeavor.

I do think Curtis was on the right path for whatever its worth.....NONE, NADA, ZERO of the others in the conversations could have done what Justify did. 

Might as well settle a few other discussions first......Ford or Chevy, Maryann or Ginger to name a couple without getting political

You know when I was living in so. CA near Hollywood, I preferred Ginger, but now that I've bought a farm.......

Quote from: BaroqueAgain1 on July 25, 2018, 12:22:57 PM
   Even though Justify did win the Triple Crown, I feel like we never really got a real idea of how good he was...or wasn't. Only ran six times, never faced older. It's a flimsy race record, even for modern times.
   His record pales when compared to other TC winners. Even Count Fleet, who was injured in his Belmont win and never raced again, ran (if I remember Watchmaker's article correctly) 18 times.
   American Pharoah was retired promptly after his Classic win, but at least he ran three times after the TC and beat older.
   I'm not saying Justify wasn't brilliant in his six races, but IMHO, racing historians are going to spend a fair amount of time asking; 'What was Justify, really?'

You're never going to know what a horse is in 6 starts. I was talking to my wife about Justify the other day and said if the Ghost of Classics Future, came to me in mid-January and said, "There's going to be a horse who'll make its' first start in February 18 and when he wins your jaw will drop, he'll go through a condition, he'll win the SA Derby and then the TC." I wouldn't have asked, "How will he compare?" I wouldn't have been able to wrap my head around it. He was pretty special and one of thirteen, whether he could beat Assault or Citation or American Pharoah isn't relevant. Could they do what he did?

The only thing they really could have done was give him 90 days and then maybe you could go in the Malibu and the Pegasus. That wouldn't have increased his value a dime though, so what's the point?  I was against the idea of running him in the Derby in the first place—I understand why they did it, but it wasn't the best move in terms of longevity. Of course once the Derby was won it was in for a penny, in for a pound. I was glad when he won the Preakness because then I knew we'd see him in the Belmont. Win, lose or draw I figured the Belmont would be it.

At one point, I heard that Good Magic and Vino Rosso we're pointing to the Travers via the Jim Dandy. Haven't heard about anyone else.

Quote from: peeptoad on July 11, 2018, 06:12:24 AM
agree on the distance limitations for Firenze Fire (and I'll redboard a bit because I hammered him in the Dwyer for that very reason)... getting back to one turn and especially getting back to BEL helped him. I'm undecided on whether he just likes BEL or whether he's better at a one turn 7-8f (probably a bit of both).
I wonder if Core Beliefs gets a chance in the Travers... maybe Romans sends King Zachary to try and upset?

Looks like Justify prob won't go since he's now got some problem with an ankle. So, Catholic Boy would have an easier task, given some uncertainties.

So you're the reason he went from 6-1 to 5/2!😉 I wasn't going to take anything under 4-1 on him. I would have been tempted at 7/2. We all have our limits.

I would imagine Core Beliefs would either go in the Haskell or the Travers. Seems I heard Bolt d'Oro is laid up and Solomini is seeing a shrink. McKinzie still hasn't recorded a work. This super crop is thinning out.

Quote from: Raven on July 11, 2018, 03:22:45 AM
Thanks Curtis!  I stand corrected

I didn't mean to correct you. I was just giving my opinion as to whether Firenze Fire would stretch out.

Quote from: Raven on July 10, 2018, 05:50:40 PM
To paraphrase a trainer that said that his horse can go a distance,but can he do it fast enough

That's my point. Towards the end of his career, Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons put a horse in the JCGC—2 miles at the time—that was coming out of a 7f race and in fact the horse had never won past 7f. Fitz was asked, "Can he go this far?"  The response was,"Sure....they can all go that far, the question is how fast?"

Quote from: Raven on July 10, 2018, 02:10:41 PM
Peeptoad
Good Maging  is a favored of mine.  I haven't heard  anything about  where his next race will be.
Do you know that  he is going ton the Travers?

Curtis
Firenze  Fire has won a GR 1 on the dirt (one turn mile) @ Aqueduct  and Saratogas is  almost the same surface as Aqueduct

I'm pretty sure I heard Good Magic was going the Jim Dandy/Travers route.  I know Firenze Fire is a Gr 1 winner--The Champagne at Belmont, if memory serves--but in my opinion he's not a 10f horse.  After the Dwyer, Servis said he's inclined to point him to the Jerkens (7f) unless the owners overruled him and insisted on the Haskell.  I think Servis is right, 7-8f is Firenze Fire's wheelhouse and I don't see a reason to mess with that.

Quote from: Raven on July 09, 2018, 04:45:02 PM
in the  Travers he has to face Firenze Fire.

I don't think Firenze Fire will go any where near the Travers other than the 7f G1 they run that same day. I'd take a shot with Catholic Boy in there. Outside of Justify, I think he'd be competitive and Justify may not even go in there. If it doesn't work, go back to the turf.

Quote from: Senator L on May 29, 2018, 07:21:20 PM
I'm sure out of 11 one of them will go with Justify. It's not the horse
but the jockey that control the pace. For all the talk about his work
Bravazo basically had the same time. i haven't bet him yet (justify) not
going to start now. I hope he does well though  :chickendance:

I'm as much a believer in how a horse runs fast as opposed to simply how fast they run. Bravazo looked like he was going that fast where Justify didn't. Lukas himself said visually he thought Justify could have went the 1/2 mile in 50 when in reality it was 46 and change. Bolt—who is training for the Met Mile—had a work that was somewhere in between, visually. As to someone going with Justify, he's not a need to lead type and I haven't seen him get rank. It would have to be a quality horse willing to throw down with him for the long haul like Rock Hard Ten and Eddington with Smarty Jones—who was rank—or Frosted with Pharoah in the Travers. I don't see a lesser type throwing a 1/2 or 3/4 Mile at him having much effect. Whatever the ultimate opinion is on Good Magic, most would have to agree he's a really nice horse and he couldn't run Justify into submission. I will say we haven't seen Tenfold's best yet, I haven't seen evidence as to how he's training up to the race but I wouldn't sleep on him.

To beat Justify, you have to hope he won't run his race. It's really pretty simple. I thought Always Dreaming was a huge bet against in the Preakness last year. Until Pletcher shows me he can prepare a horse for the Derby and then have it come back two weeks later with another big race, I'll look elsewhere. Nyquist hated slop and was always vulnerable because no one ever knows if your going to get Super or Stuper Mario. In the Preakness, Nyquist had to contend with both the latter and slop.

I was at Turf Paradise last week and bet a horse that was 8-1 standing in the gate. The horse was full of run all the way around, pulled the jock to the front straightening in to the stretch, ran on the wrong lead all the way to the wire, won for fun and paid 4-1. I don't need those kind of technological advancements.

Quote from: peeptoad on February 16, 2018, 03:36:56 AM
It seems that distaff turf races are in Paved's future and the El Camino Real is a means to that end. There is a nice article on Bloodhorse daily about her, and the connections say the La provedencia in April is next. Theyre trying to get foundation into her for the bigger turf races in CA, NY, KY later in the year.
So, it seems like a win here is not necessarily a requirement and I'm glad to see they do not have designs on the Derby. The plan instead is to bring her along more slowly to have her at her best later on.

At short odds she's a play against here with all the hurdles she needs to overcome,  bit if she runs back to her last she's in with a real shot.

Now it sounds like the connections are coming down with Oaks Fever. Paved is being considered for the Santa Anita Oaks. Not sure if she's nominated for the Oaks, Bourbon Style but it will be interesting to see if she likes dirt. She sure looked good against those C+ level colts on synthetic.

In the Pegasus, all week long prior to the draw, my pick has been West Coast as long as he didn't draw one of the three outside posts. I don't love the two post for him but if I can get at least half his ML, I'm all in on him. For an exotic or two:

Tri:
West Coast
Gunnevera
Collected, Gun Runner, Seeking the Soul

For a Super, it's the same structure with Toast of New York in the fourth spot along with the three horses mentioned in the third spot. Good luck!