Doug O'Neill @DougONeill1
Nyquist worked one mile this morning at San Luis Rey. He went in 1:38 1/5. Next stop, PARX
Wondering how much of a nightmare the crowd will be with Songbird also in the house? Was planning on going-only an hour where I am at the Jersey Shore. Never been to Parx.
Missed SB at the Spa, and saw Nyquist (and rooted strongly for him) at the Haskell.
Quote from: honneerider on September 17, 2016, 05:48:24 PM
Wondering how much of a nightmare the crowd will be with Songbird also in the house? Was planning on going-only an hour where I am at the Jersey Shore. Never been to Parx.
Missed SB at the Spa, and saw Nyquist (and rooted strongly for him) at the Haskell.
You have but one chance to enjoy.
Otherwise, it's I coulda,shoulda woulda, wished I'd done that.
Treat yourself and go a watch Songbird live. Saw her at Saratoga and she is quite the horse. How many times can you see a horse who is 10 for 10. On top of that she is a beauty.
As of Friday, a field of nine was in the making for the Derby. The field was expected to include three-time Grade 2 winner Cupid, Travers third-place finisher Gun Runner, and Awesome Slew, the runaway winner of the recent Grade 3 Smarty Jones at Parx.
The other probable starters are Hit It Once More, who enters off two impressive stakes wins over New York-breds, Summer Revolution, Sunny Ridge, and Wild About Deb.
You are correct! Always wished I had seen Z. Only a direct hour from here-was at the Devon Fall Classic yesterday, and took forever to get there but did not leave from home.
What forum members will I see there?
AWESOME SLEW E. Plesa, Jr.
EXAGGERATOR J. Desormeaux
SUMMER REVOLUTION R. Rodriguez
CONNECT C. Brown
CUPID B. Baffert
WILD ABOUT DEB P. D'Amato
GUN RUNNER S. Asmussen
MY MAN SAM C. Brown
NYQUIST D. O'Neill
SUNNY RIDGE J. Servis
DISCREET LOVER
HIT IT ONCE MORE
11 Discreet Lover
12 Hit It Once More
Quote from: honneerider on September 17, 2016, 05:48:24 PM
Wondering how much of a nightmare the crowd will be with Songbird also in the house? Was planning on going-only an hour where I am at the Jersey Shore. Never been to Parx.
Missed SB at the Spa, and saw Nyquist (and rooted strongly for him) at the Haskell.
Unfortunately, if it was not an issue two years ago for Chrome it will not be an issue for Songbird.
I wish I was wrong.
The Morning Line....
1 Awesome Slew (FL) 3/C L P Lopez 122 E Plesa, Jr. 10/1
2 Exaggerator (KY) 3/C L K J Desormeaux 124 J K Desormeaux 9/2
3 Summer Revolution (KY) 3/C L M E Smith 117 R R Rodriguez 8/1
4 Connect (KY) 3/C L J Castellano 119 C C Brown 12/1
5 Cupid (KY) 3/C L R Bejarano 122 B Baffert 5/1
6 Wild About Deb (KY) 3/C L T J Pereira 117 R Preciado 20/1
7 Gun Runner (KY) 3/C L F Geroux 122 S M Asmussen 6/1
8 My Man Sam (KY) 3/C L J R Leparoux 117 C C Brown 20/1
9 Nyquist (KY) 3/C L M Gutierrez 124 D F O'Neill 5/2
10 Sunny Ridge (NJ) 3/G L J Bravo 122 J Servis 12/1
11 Discreet Lover (FL) 3/C L J L Flores 117 U St. Lewis 30/1
12 Hit It Once More (NY) 3/C L K Carmouche 119 G Sciacca 20/1
Change of tactics for Nyquist :
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/215179/running-style-change-planned-for-nyquist (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/215179/running-style-change-planned-for-nyquist)
Unless it rains, Nyquist all the way.
Classic & Dirt Mile implications for Pennsylvania Derby
By: James Scully on September 21, 2016
Before they step up to face California Chrome in the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic, Exaggerator and Nyquist will be seeking a measure of redemption in Saturday's $1.25 million Pennsylvania Derby (G2).
Preakness winner Exaggerator exits an 11th-place effort, beaten 33 length in the Travers (G1). Kentucky Derby victor Nyquist has dropped two straight since capturing his first eight starts, finishing off the board most recently in the Haskell Invitational (G1). Both colts will either proceed on to the Breeders' Cup Classic or skip the event entirely.
Circumstances are different for rivals Cupid, Gun Runner and Summer Revolution, with the Pennsylvania Derby serving as a stepping stone toward a potential Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) bid.
Inaugurated in 2007, the $1 million Dirt Mile filled a niche that was seen by many as a consolation prize. Undistinguished early winners like Furthest Land and Dakota Phone did little to prop the event up, but fortunes have certainly changed in recent years with top-class performers Goldencents (2013-14) and Liam's Map capturing the last three runnings.
And a dynamite field could be assembled on November 4 at Santa Anita, with sprint champion Runhappy targeting the Dirt Mile for his second start back this season and top older horses Dortmund and Frosted both under serious consideration given possible distance limitations for the 1 ¼-mile Classic.
Ten furlongs is too far for multiple graded winners Cupid and Gun Runner, and the up-and-coming Summer Revolution has never been two turns.
Cupid will enter the Pennsylvania Derby on a roll, posting a hard-fought victory in the Indiana Derby (G2) before a four-length domination of the West Virginia Derby (G2), and the son of Tapit brings plenty of early speed to any engagement. Bob Baffert already has Arrogate, and possibly a couple of others, lining up for the Classic and the Hall of Fame conditioner likely recognizes that Cupid is more of a middle-distance specialist at this stage in his career.
Gun Runner has proven effective up to 1 1/8 miles, capturing the Louisiana Derby (G2), but was found wanting in the latter stages of the Kentucky Derby, weaving in and out in deep stretch as he saved third by a head. The Candy Ride colt also had little left for the final furlongs when third in the Travers, but he's unbeaten from four starts on a fast track at a mile or 1 1/16 miles.
Summer Revolution opened his racing career with a pair of smashing wins, registering a 104 BRIS Speed rating when capturing an entry-level allowance in early August, but he was hurt by a bad break in his stakes debut, the King's Bishop (G1). The chestnut son of Summer Bird still performed admirably, finishing less than a length back of runner-up Economic Model in a fourth-place effort, and is eligible to improve upon the experience for Rudy Rodriguez. Tough to envision him winning on Saturday but Summer Revolution can earn a trip out west with a solid showing.
With divisional honors still at stake, the Pennsylvania Derby is as an important race for Exaggerator and Nyquist. And the 1 1/8-mile test also promises to serve as a Dirt Mile prep.
Stark,
Because of copyright, it's a good idea to just supply a link, even though it takes the reader off site ;) .
Thanks for the great summary of the Pennsylvania Derby!
Not quite done looking at this one yet, but either Nyquist or Gun Runner seem like the most likely winner to me.
For exact/trifecta purposes I may also use Awesome Slew and Wild About Deb. The latter may provide value underneath in exotics and the former might be one of my top picks if not for the post.
I have so much "California Money" saved up from these big races across the country this year I just don't see any reason to change plans now, box em up and wait in the cashiers line :celebrate:
Exaggerator still must prove to critics he's more than a horse that needs a sloppy track to run his best race, and no less an authority than Keith Desormeaux isn't eager to dispute that, although the trainer of the Santa Anita Derby and Preakness winner isn't about to alter his thoughts on the colt's achievements.
Exaggerator takes on Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist and 10 others in Saturday's $1.25 million Pennsylvania Derby, scheduled to be run on a fast track at 1 1/8 miles. A son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, Exaggerator was purchased for $110,000 and to date has won $3,571,120.
"The numbers say he's just as good on a fast track," Desormeaux said. "He ran a great race in the San Vicente, he ran a great race in the Delta Jackpot and he ran a great race in the Saratoga Special. Those were dry tracks. (The Delta Jackpot was actually on a muddy track).
"But his major wins have all come on wet tracks, so it (the criticism) is not BS. Until I prove different, the naysayers can have their day. It doesn't bother me. It doesn't diminish what he's accomplished, it doesn't reflect on how much money he's won. He's a superstar.
"We don't look at the Pennsylvania Derby any differently. The type of surface he runs on doesn't change his style. It's up to Kent (Desormeaux) to get him in a nice, rhythmic gallop behind the pace and run them down. Nothing changes."
I'm going with Nyquist I thought his last race was much
better than it looked. I really thought he struggled with the
sloppy track. Taking him over Summer Revolution
good luck
:chickendance:
103 Beyer for Connect in the PA Derby
Wish I would have put a show bet on Wild About Deb... I talk em up and them don't bet em. Useless. :chickendance:
I am at a total loss to understand this race.
Nyquist.
Exaggerator.
I had my doubts about Cupid so that was no surprise.
Good for Awesome Slew...
At least Gun Runner managed to place. But the rest of them were no shows. And the worst thing about these performances is that there are not many excuses.
OK, so Gun Runner went wide and would have won had he had the run Connect had, but then we would have had to wade through the field like Connect did.
It looks like this class of three year olds has fallen by the way side and is showing no late season form. At least on the colt side.
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 26, 2016, 12:20:07 PM
I am at a total loss to understand this race.
Nyquist.
It looks like this class of three year olds has fallen by the way side and is showing no late season form. At least on the colt side.
Got to be willing to cut this guy some slack.
Been in serious training since June of his 2YO season, criss-crossed the country several times while facing the starter 11 times. Even the connections recognized he needed a little downtime before going to Pennsylvania so they shipped him to SanLuisReyDowns for some R&R rather than the hustle 'n bustle of SantaAnita and what did he do during the month......four 1-mile workouts while he was there, some vacation!
Hopefully he just takes the rest of the year off and comes back as a happy, healthy 4YO. One thing is for certain, NOBODY accomplished as much as he did while keeping up the same schedule for the past 15 months.
IMO Nyquist was precocious and peaked early and the rest have caught up and/or some new talent is emerging from tell crop. I doubt we see him as a 4yo but if he runs I suspect his calling would be a race like the Met or the other dirt mile races.
I agree. I think Darley may give him a shot in the Malibu and then retire him.
The rest have caught up with him.
My only issue with his training are these mile gallops. I will grant that they managed to get and keep him fit for the Florida and Kentucky Derby, but that is not to say the normal 4-5-and 6 furlong outings would not have accomplished the same thing.
I think his connections tried to be too gimmicky with their sprint, route Triple Crown plan and these long gallops.
It got Nyquist the Derby win, but I do not know that they have worked to condition him past that. I think they need to start training him in normal routines and see if he can fire. Maybe his talent allowed him to overcome the bizarre campaign schedule and training regimen and now he needs every advantage that comes with a normal regimen since the others have caught up.
It is really sad because I believe he is a talented colt. But this generation until Arrogate came along was not known for speed so maybe that is the real lesson. If you have a class that does not show speed, once it comes along you are not going to be able to step up to compete.
Wasn't sure where to put this, but Connect is more likely for the Cigar Mile and will probably skip the BC:
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/connect-likely-skip-breeders-cup-point-cigar-mile/ (http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/connect-likely-skip-breeders-cup-point-cigar-mile/)
Hmm. Good place for him. Hopefully he does well and is around next year. If he shows he can stretch out as he matures maybe they try the BC Classic at Del Mar.