I have a big problem with the Hollywood Futurity at Hollywood Park and Royal Lodge from Newmarket races being nixed from the Kentucky Derby points schedule...in 2013 while they were there in 2012.
If anything last year's race schedule showed you needed more races added not less with some derby entrants making it with single digit point numbers.
No inclusion of the Illinois Derby again.
2012-2013
Kentucky Derby Prep Season Schedule
Date Race 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
9/29/12 Royal Lodge 10 4 2 1
9/29/12 FrontRunner 10 4 2 1
10/6/12 Breeders' Futurity 10 4 2 1
10/6/12 Champagne Stakes 10 4 2 1
10/7/12 Grey Stakes 10 4 2 1
11/3/12 Breeders' Cup Juvenile 10 4 2 1
11/17/12 Delta Downs Jackpot 10 4 2 1
11/24/12 Remsen Stakes 10 4 2 1
11/24/12 Kentucky Jockey Club 10 4 2 1
12/15/12 CashCall Futurity 10 4 2 1
1/5/13 Sham Stakes 10 4 2 1
1/19/13 Lecomte 10 4 2 1
1/21/13 Smarty Jones 10 4 2 1
1/26/13 Holy Bull 10 4 2 1
2/2/13 Robert B. Lewis 10 4 2 1
2/2/13 Sam F. Davis 10 4 2 1
2/2/13 Withers 10 4 2 1
2/16/13 El Camino Real Derby 10 4 2 1
2/18/13 Southwest Stakes 10 4 2 1
Kentucky Derby Championship Series
First Leg
Date Race 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
2/23/13 Risen Star Stakes 50 20 10 5
2/23/13 Fountain of Youth Stakes 50 20 10 5
3/2/13 Gotham Stakes 50 20 10 5
3/9/13 Tampa Bay Derby 50 20 10 5
3/9/13 San Felipe Stakes 50 20 10 5
3/16/13 Rebel Stakes 50 20 10 5
3/23/13 Spiral Stakes 50 20 10 5
3/24/13 Sunland Derby 50 20 10 5
Second Leg
Date Race 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
3/30/13 Florida Derby 100 40 20 10
3/30/13 UAE Derby 100 40 20 10
3/30/13 Louisiana Derby 100 40 20 10
4/6/13 Wood Memorial 100 40 20 10
4/6/13 Santa Anita Derby 100 40 20 10
4/13/13 Arkansas Derby 100 40 20 10
4/13/13 Blue Grass Stakes 100 40 20 10
Wild Card
Date Race 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
4/20/13 Lexington Stakes 20 8 4 2
4/27/13 Derby Trial 20 8 4 2
2013-2014
Kentucky Derby Prep Season Schedule
Date Race 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
9/7/13 Iroquois Stakes 10 4 2 1
9/28/13 FrontRunner 10 4 2 1
10/5/13 Breeders' Futurity 10 4 2 1
10/5/13 Champagne Stakes 10 4 2 1
10/6/13 Grey Stakes 10 4 2 1
11/2/13 Breeders' Cup Juvenile 10 4 2 1
11/16/13 Delta Downs Jackpot 10 4 2 1
11/30/13 Remsen Stakes 10 4 2 1
11/30/13 Kentucky Jockey Club 10 4 2 1
1/4/14 Jerome Stakes 10 4 2 1
1/4/14 Sham Stakes 10 4 2 1
1/18/14 Lecomte 10 4 2 1
1/20/14 Smarty Jones 10 4 2 1
1/25/14 Holy Bull 10 4 2 1
2/1/14 Robert B. Lewis 10 4 2 1
2/1/14 Withers 10 4 2 1
2/15/14 El Camino Real Derby 10 4 2 1
2/17/14 Southwest Stakes 10 4 2 1
Kentucky Derby Championship Series
Date Race 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
2/22/14 Risen Star Stakes 50 20 10 5
2/22/14 Fountain of Youth Stakes 50 20 10 5
3/1/14 Gotham Stakes 50 20 10 5
3/8/14 Tampa Bay Derby 50 20 10 5
3/8/14 San Felipe Stakes 50 20 10 5
3/15/14 Rebel Stakes 50 20 10 5
3/22/14 Spiral Stakes 50 20 10 5
3/23/14 Sunland Derby 50 20 10 5
3/29/14 Florida Derby 100 40 20 10
3/29/14 UAE Derby 100 40 20 10
3/29/14 Louisiana Derby 100 40 20 10
4/5/14 Wood Memorial 100 40 20 10
4/5/14 Santa Anita Derby 100 40 20 10
4/12/14 Arkansas Derby 100 40 20 10
4/12/14 Blue Grass Stakes 100 40 20 10
4/19/14 Lexington Stakes 10 4 2 1
In 2014, the Sam. F. Davis stakes will no longer receive points either.
My feeling is that if a race is designated a Grade I race of 8.5 furlongs or more, then Churchill Downs should have to include it as a venue receiving points in order to have any credibility.
Thus, the Hollywood Futurity which will likely become a different name race next year deserves to be among the races allotting points for the Derby.
Agree with all your points. Discarding the Hollywood (CashCall) Futurity seemed especially unkind, adding insult to injury for the last Hollywood Park meet.
Stillhave not included the Illinois derby either
Quote from: Senator L on January 03, 2014, 08:57:05 PM
Stillhave not included the Illinois derby either
This is a continuation of CDI's attempt to destroy Hawthorne, pure and simple.
The Illinois Racing Board should delay the start of Arlington's season until AFTER the Ky. Derby in response, and give that lucrative weekend to Hawthorne.
Nearing the finish where it will only be cdi, nyra
And Stronach
Its sad.
The notion that contraction is better for the sport is silly IMHO when with more races as a part of the points schedule they managed to have Giant Finish with 10 points and Golden Soul with 14.
Granted Golden Soul finished second in the derby - but the notion that you can have a range of entries between 150 points (Orb) and 10 points to me demonstrates that the system is flawed.
You can get 10 points from a 4th place finish in a top tier race or from 2 second place finishes and a third place finish in two year old races.
Thus, the benefits of a point system which I thought would encourage horses to race more and mean that only the best horses were in the Derby field - is a fallacy.
I know that Churchill Downs has control over who enters the Kentucky Derby, but one would think that the integrity of the sport imposes upon them a certain degree of responsibility to be more inclusive.
If Shared Belief doesn't make the gate because of those points, I will personally call CDI and raise hell. I'm sure Hollendorfer will want to do the following to them:
:slap: or better yet... :mallet:
What was their rationale for removing the Hollywood Futurity? When I saw the points list I thought it was a mistake. Ugh.
They made it seem that because Hollywood Park was closing the race was no longer a factor in their press release:
"While Churchill Downs has added the Iroquois, it dropped its Derby Trial, which has been staged one week in advance of the Derby since 1982, as a "Wild Card" race. A trio of Prep Season races also was removed from the schedule: the Royal Lodge, Europe's lone juvenile race on turf; the Cash Call Futurity at soon-to-be-closed Betfair Hollywood Park, and South Florida's Sam F. Davis."
Frankly, it eliminates California's premiere two year old event while leaving all of the events out East.
Its provincial and dumb in my thinking and one of the key factors why I believe Mr. Hollendorfer is entering SB in the Sham, rather than waiting for the Robert Lewis.
Another problem with the Churchill Downs point totals is that ignores the threat of injury.
New Year's Day has been retired already with 10 points - he would have been tied for 5th in the standings at this point.
And, unfortunately, there are likely to be more injuries.
Thus, by reducing the number of races which qualify for points you are diminishing the quality of horses who may qualify for the Derby.
War Emblem would have been excluded from the Derby and there are likely others.
Mine That Bird would only have had 10 points from his Grey Cup win as a two year old.
Examine the results at the close of 2012.
There were horses 33 with points:
Shanghai Bobby -20
Goldencents - 14
Violence - 10
Overanalyze - 10
Uncaptured-10
Power Broker-10
Steeler-10
River Seven-10
Tesseron - 5
He's Had Enough-4
Know More -4
Bern Identity - 4
Capo Bastone - 4
Fury Kapcori - 4
Dynamic Sky - 4
Normandy Invasion - 4
Frac Daddy - 4
Artigiano - 4
Den's Legacy - 3
Java's War - 2
Mylute - 2
Al Waab - 2
Indiano Jones - 2
Delhomme - 2
Dewey Square - 2
Hightale - 1
Carving - 1
Pataky Kid - 1
Oxbow - 1
Five Iron - 1
Birdman - 1
Archwarrior - 1
Quinzieme Monarque - 1
Of which, 8 made the starting gate.
There were 28 horses at the end of 2013 who had points.
Had the Cashcall Futurity been counted there would have been 30 horses since Tamarando and Bond Holder had points.
It does not seem to be an oppressive number of horses particularly given that only 8 of 33 made the starting gate in 2013.
Quote from: Man o Taz on January 06, 2014, 07:26:37 AM
Its sad.
The notion that contraction is better for the sport is silly IMHO when with more races as a part of the points schedule they managed to have Giant Finish with 10 points and Golden Soul with 14.
Granted Golden Soul finished second in the derby - but the notion that you can have a range of entries between 150 points (Orb) and 10 points to me demonstrates that the system is flawed.
You can get 10 points from a 4th place finish in a top tier race or from 2 second place finishes and a third place finish in two year old races.
Thus, the benefits of a point system which I thought would encourage horses to race more and mean that only the best horses were in the Derby field - is a fallacy.
I know that Churchill Downs has control over who enters the Kentucky Derby, but one would think that the integrity of the sport imposes upon them a certain degree of responsibility to be more inclusive.
One would think but apparanty NOT - WHY excluse The Cash Call Futurity??? Makes no sense and no basis for doing so - Shame on Churchill
If they are hoping for a spot in the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby, then the trainer should know which races have points and which do not. They announced what the point races for the 2014 Kentucky Derby were a long time ago. If all Shared Belief can muster is a win in the CashCall Futurity, then he really shouldn't be in the starting gate anyway.
Don't get me wrong though, I don't care for the current point system. I'm not exactly sure what would be better though.
Quote from: Flanders on January 10, 2014, 08:19:30 PM
If they are hoping for a spot in the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby, then the trainer should know which races have points and which do not. They announced what the point races for the 2014 Kentucky Derby were a long time ago. If all Shared Belief can muster is a win in the CashCall Futurity, then he really shouldn't be in the starting gate anyway.
Don't get me wrong though, I don't care for the current point system. I'm not exactly sure what would be better though.
That said, I'm amazed there were any horses at all in the gate for that race. I believe Hollendorfer felt he was good enough to gather plenty of points in the future, regardless of the Cash Call being a Derby throw out race.
Quote from: Zenyatta on January 10, 2014, 08:49:18 PM
That said, I'm amazed there were any horses at all in the gate for that race. I believe Hollendorfer felt he was good enough to gather plenty of points in the future, regardless of the Cash Call being a Derby throw out race.
I'm confused. Why are you amazed there were horses in the gate? It was a $750,000 Grade 1.
Quote from: Flanders on January 10, 2014, 08:19:30 PM
If they are hoping for a spot in the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby, then the trainer should know which races have points and which do not. They announced what the point races for the 2014 Kentucky Derby were a long time ago. If all Shared Belief can muster is a win in the CashCall Futurity, then he really shouldn't be in the starting gate anyway.
Don't get me wrong though, I don't care for the current point system. I'm not exactly sure what would be better though.
I think Mr. Hollendorfer was well aware that the Hollywood Futurity did not come with Derby points. That is not the issue - the issue is whether the contraction of a G1 8.5 furlong race which had previously received points was appropriate.
Remember, while Shared Belief was coming off a graded stakes win prior to the HF, Mr. Hollendorfer likely wanted to see just how good he was - and also given his wins were over the cushion track surface he likely wanted to notch a G1 win - and he is also running a business - so a nice return is useful as well.
However, this was a quality field - and the HF usually secures a quality field year in and year out - and past participants have fared well in TC races - thus - with all these factors at issue - it seems small of Churchill Downs to eliminate this race from its derby preps which receive points.
I think the real justice would be if SB wins the Eclipse...and then the Kentucky Derby...providing further evidence that this race should receive derby points.
I think Zenyatta's point was sarcastic in nature - suggesting why should anyone run in a race that did not have derby points in it after your statement regarding the connections...but she can speak for herself.
Taz ... I confirmed with Dan The Man yesterday that ...
Shared Belief IS going the Robert B. Lewis and Santa Anita Derby route ... and Tamarando's next race is The California Cup Derby on January 25th.
I asked about Fury Kapcori's name and he said ... "Hmmmm ... it IS an interesting name ... But I don't know how they came up with it" ... sorry Taz ... :(
Quote from: Man o Taz on January 13, 2014, 08:08:25 AM
I think the real justice would be if SB wins the Eclipse...and then the Kentucky Derby...providing further evidence that this race should receive derby points.
I think there's an outstanding chance he will do both.
I certainly haven't seen anything even remotely as impressive thus far on either coast.
Dan is ultra-impressed with Shared Belief's intelligence(Among other things, of course). Says he is so smart that he always puts himself in the right place and all you have to do is shake the reigns and he's gone!
Quote from: Flanders on January 10, 2014, 08:19:30 PM
If they are hoping for a spot in the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby, then the trainer should know which races have points and which do not. They announced what the point races for the 2014 Kentucky Derby were a long time ago. If all Shared Belief can muster is a win in the CashCall Futurity, then he really shouldn't be in the starting gate anyway.
Don't get me wrong though, I don't care for the current point system. I'm not exactly sure what would be better though.
What would be better is nothing. A system limiting the field to 20 was instituted after 23 horses ran in the 1974 centennial running. The system was challenged in court in 1981--resulting in a horse being officially scratched from the Twin Spires Purse on the same card and entered in the Derby. Two horses were allowed in because of the court siding with the connections. Another unrelated horse was scratched bringing the final field to 21. Since then, regulations to limit the field to 20 have been in place, I'm assuming sans any loopholes--first graded earnings and then the current point system, which has already been tweaked. Churchill Downs wanted to limit the field because they feared that the race may need to be split. I have always believed that the limit was an overreaction. The field of 23 in 1974 was both due to owners and breeders wanting to have the winner of the 100th Derby and the fact that the crop of 1971 was one of the most mediocre in a long time. Besides if you are limiting because of safety, the field should be limited to 14 or 16. Since fewer horses are being bred now, I doubt that the field size would reach even the 1974 level and if it did it would be a rare occurrence.
Quote from: The Tin Man on January 13, 2014, 08:20:25 AM
Taz ... I confirmed with Dan The Man yesterday that ...
Shared Belief IS going the Robert B. Lewis and Santa Anita Derby route ... and Tamarando's next race is The California Cup Derby on January 25th.
I asked about Fury Kapcori's name and he said ... "Hmmmm ... it IS an interesting name ... But I don't know how they came up with it" ... sorry Taz ... :(
Thanks TTM.
Quote from: curtis on January 13, 2014, 10:48:05 AM
What would be better is nothing. A system limiting the field to 20 was instituted after 23 horses ran in the 1974 centennial running. The system was challenged in court in 1981--resulting in a horse being officially scratched from the Twin Spires Purse on the same card and entered in the Derby. Two horses were allowed in because of the court siding with the connections. Another unrelated horse was scratched bringing the final field to 21. Since then, regulations to limit the field to 20 have been in place, I'm assuming sans any loopholes--first graded earnings and then the current point system, which has already been tweaked. Churchill Downs wanted to limit the field because they feared that the race may need to be split. I have always believed that the limit was an overreaction. The field of 23 in 1974 was both due to owners and breeders wanting to have the winner of the 100th Derby and the fact that the crop of 1971 was one of the most mediocre in a long time. Besides if you are limiting because of safety, the field should be limited to 14 or 16. Since fewer horses are being bred now, I doubt that the field size would reach even the 1974 level and if it did it would be a rare occurrence.
Thanks for the insights.
However, while I sympathize with Churchill wanting to deal with the over-subscription issue, I do not know how the point system is any better than graded earnings for determining which horses are best qualified to enter the derby.
It seems that the races chosen by Churchill for the Derby Points are in many respects arbitrary.
And as I noted elsewhere - War Emblem and perhaps other Kentucky Derby winners would have been excluded if the current point system were in effect when they were racing.
I think there should actually be many more races which provide points so that you can have the best of the best competing in the Kentucky Derby. I do not believe that that was the case last year.
Now, one result of the Derby point system should be that the Derby points schedule races should be oversubscribed themselves, but this is happening rarely.
Kentucky Derby Prep Season Schedule
9/7/13 Iroquois Stakes 10
9/28/13 FrontRunner 10
10/5/13 Breeders' Futurity 12
10/5/13 Champagne Stakes 9
10/6/13 Grey Stakes 4
11/2/13 Breeders' Cup Juvenile 13
11/16/13 Delta Downs Jackpot 10
11/30/13 Remsen Stakes 8
11/30/13 Kentucky Jockey Club 9
1/4/14 Jerome Stakes 8
1/4/14 Sham Stakes 4
The Cash Call Futurity on the other hand had 12 horses in it.
It seems like for the most part there are good size fields. We'll see if that continues as the points rewards get more lucrative.
an interesting article from Richard Eng on the subject:
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/eng-i-am-a-convert-on-derby-points-system/
Quote from: Man o Taz on January 13, 2014, 11:24:56 AM
Thanks for the insights.
However, while I sympathize with Churchill wanting to deal with the over-subscription issue, I do not know how the point system is any better than graded earnings for determining which horses are best qualified to enter the derby.
It seems that the races chosen by Churchill for the Derby Points are in many respects arbitrary.
And as I noted elsewhere - War Emblem and perhaps other Kentucky Derby winners would have been excluded if the current point system were in effect when they were racing.
I think there should actually be many more races which provide points so that you can have the best of the best competing in the Kentucky Derby. I do not believe that that was the case last year.
Now, one result of the Derby point system should be that the Derby points schedule races should be oversubscribed themselves, but this is happening rarely.
Kentucky Derby Prep Season Schedule
9/7/13 Iroquois Stakes 10
9/28/13 FrontRunner 10
10/5/13 Breeders' Futurity 12
10/5/13 Champagne Stakes 9
10/6/13 Grey Stakes 4
11/2/13 Breeders' Cup Juvenile 13
11/16/13 Delta Downs Jackpot 10
11/30/13 Remsen Stakes 8
11/30/13 Kentucky Jockey Club 9
1/4/14 Jerome Stakes 8
1/4/14 Sham Stakes 4
The Cash Call Futurity on the other hand had 12 horses in it.
It seems like for the most part there are good size fields. We'll see if that continues as the points rewards get more lucrative.
That is my point. When I said what would be better is nothing--I mean just that, I would do nothing to restrict the field size. Both the graded earnings and point system were and are flawed. At least the graded earnings didn't reek of any agenda. Do you think that the Illinois Derby would be considered if it were run at Arlington as opposed to Hawthorne?
Over the past 15 - 20 years, the meaning of the Kentucky Derby has changed. Everyone wants to own a Derby winner. Most owners would say its because of the historic factor but I would venture to say this is because of the vast amounts of money made by selling a Kentucky Derby winning colt to stud. Of course the geldings and fillies don't fit into this category.
The problem with having no requirements is, you will have fields of 20+ horses nearly, if not every, year. Horses that have no right to be in the field, will be there because their owner or trainer just wants to make the walk over or they have stars in their eyes.
I found the field size of the Derby from 1991 (the first year I could find info on without looking to hard) through 2013. Keeping in mind that there wasn't an also eligible list until 2013, I have included the fields that would have been 20 horse fields, but weren't because of scratches, in the 20 horse field count. Out of the past 23 runnings, 14 have had 20 horse fields. The last 10 have had 20 horse fields and 12 out of the last 14(only 2001 and 2003 weren't 20 horse fields). The 90s had 2 (1996 and 1999).
I personally don't want to see more than 20 horses in the starting gate. I would be happier with a field less than 20, 14 or 16 is enough. IMO, there does need to be some sort of qualification to make sure the right horses make the gate. They current point system isn't right though and the graded stakes earnings was flawed too. If they want to go with a point system, they shouldn't just pick and choose this race and that. They need to have all the graded stakes, on dirt/all weather, be worth something, even minimal points or points only to the winners of certain races. It would be a step in the right direction. The thing I do like about the current point system is that 2yos races don't hold as much significance as they did when it was graded stakes earnings. Obviously a good 2yo should be able to make the Derby based on the current point system but with the graded earnings, they were always near the top of the list.
Quote from: curtis on January 13, 2014, 01:56:34 PM
That is my point. When I said what would be better is nothing--I mean just that, I would do nothing to restrict the field size. Both the graded earnings and point system were and are flawed. At least the graded earnings didn't reek of any agenda. Do you think that the Illinois Derby would be considered if it were run at Arlington as opposed to Hawthorne?
I understand your point regarding a flawed system for determining the derby entrants and there is no doubt if the Illinois Derby were contested at Arlington it would be one of the races (and agree with them), but I am uncertain what the selection process has to do with the field size...
Certainly you are not suggesting that a field of more than 20 horses be allowed to enter the gate because safety-wise the current number of 20 is more than the more reasonable number of 14 so if we are not going to go with the safest method of holding the race entry wise - why have any safety parameters at all regarding field size?
Quote from: Flanders on January 14, 2014, 02:40:10 AM
Over the past 15 - 20 years, the meaning of the Kentucky Derby has changed. Everyone wants to own a Derby winner. Most owners would say its because of the historic factor but I would venture to say this is because of the vast amounts of money made by selling a Kentucky Derby winning colt to stud. Of course the geldings and fillies don't fit into this category.
The problem with having no requirements is, you will have fields of 20+ horses nearly, if not every, year. Horses that have no right to be in the field, will be there because their owner or trainer just wants to make the walk over or they have stars in their eyes.
I found the field size of the Derby from 1991 (the first year I could find info on without looking to hard) through 2013. Keeping in mind that there wasn't an also eligible list until 2013, I have included the fields that would have been 20 horse fields, but weren't because of scratches, in the 20 horse field count. Out of the past 23 runnings, 14 have had 20 horse fields. The last 10 have had 20 horse fields and 12 out of the last 14(only 2001 and 2003 weren't 20 horse fields). The 90s had 2 (1996 and 1999).
I personally don't want to see more than 20 horses in the starting gate. I would be happier with a field less than 20, 14 or 16 is enough. IMO, there does need to be some sort of qualification to make sure the right horses make the gate. They current point system isn't right though and the graded stakes earnings was flawed too. If they want to go with a point system, they shouldn't just pick and choose this race and that. They need to have all the graded stakes, on dirt/all weather, be worth something, even minimal points or points only to the winners of certain races. It would be a step in the right direction. The thing I do like about the current point system is that 2yos races don't hold as much significance as they did when it was graded stakes earnings. Obviously a good 2yo should be able to make the Derby based on the current point system but with the graded earnings, they were always near the top of the list.
Fair points.
I agree. I would like a smaller field size as well. No more than 16 as you suggest. I would also like only 12 selected by a point system and the last 4 selected by an independent committee of retired Hall of Fame jockeys and trainers. However, is an "independent" commission a possibility?
This would allow the commission to substitute out the last four places if there happens to be a filly, or other horses that appear to be more deserving.
I always want the Derby to feature the best horses. As you and curtis aptly note, the present systems are both flawed. The independent commission would be a step toward eliminating those flaws.
Quote from: Flanders on January 14, 2014, 02:40:10 AM
Over the past 15 - 20 years, the meaning of the Kentucky Derby has changed. Everyone wants to own a Derby winner. Most owners would say its because of the historic factor but I would venture to say this is because of the vast amounts of money made by selling a Kentucky Derby winning colt to stud. Of course the geldings and fillies don't fit into this category.
The problem with having no requirements is, you will have fields of 20+ horses nearly, if not every, year. Horses that have no right to be in the field, will be there because their owner or trainer just wants to make the walk over or they have stars in their eyes.
I found the field size of the Derby from 1991 (the first year I could find info on without looking to hard) through 2013. Keeping in mind that there wasn't an also eligible list until 2013, I have included the fields that would have been 20 horse fields, but weren't because of scratches, in the 20 horse field count. Out of the past 23 runnings, 14 have had 20 horse fields. The last 10 have had 20 horse fields and 12 out of the last 14(only 2001 and 2003 weren't 20 horse fields). The 90s had 2 (1996 and 1999).
I personally don't want to see more than 20 horses in the starting gate. I would be happier with a field less than 20, 14 or 16 is enough. IMO, there does need to be some sort of qualification to make sure the right horses make the gate. They current point system isn't right though and the graded stakes earnings was flawed too. If they want to go with a point system, they shouldn't just pick and choose this race and that. They need to have all the graded stakes, on dirt/all weather, be worth something, even minimal points or points only to the winners of certain races. It would be a step in the right direction. The thing I do like about the current point system is that 2yos races don't hold as much significance as they did when it was graded stakes earnings. Obviously a good 2yo should be able to make the Derby based on the current point system but with the graded earnings, they were always near the top of the list.
The Derby has always been the biggest race in the country and any owner--who for many years were breeders as well--wanted to win it. I don't agree that it has changed that drastically over the last 15-20 years. As I stated earlier, that was illustrated in 1974 when 23 entered and ran hoping that they would be the owner of the winner of the 100th running. One of the entrants that year was named Triple Crown. If you look at history usually the field size is determined by the competition, as it is in any big race. When the Derby had what looked like a standout, the field size would shrink. I am a liberal Democrat who believes in big government but in this case I believe that less is more--as in regulations. I'd also like you define what the right horses are. Do you mean horses like Canonero II, Gato Del Sol, Charismatic, Mine That Bird, etc.?
Is field size determined by competition or by the first point you make where every owner wanted to get his horse in the gate for the 100th running?
Field size lately seems to be a result of people wanting to be in the gate.
I know of owners who did not make the top 20 who would have gladly races a horse as the 21st or 22nd entrant in the race.
And there are likely trainers who feel the same way.
The only factor that keeps them from doing it is the self imposed limit on entrants.
In the past, I do believe that field size was determined by competition.
However, lately I am not so sure. It seems that the prestige of having a Derby horse is more important than anything.
Your point regarding Canonero II, Gato Del Sol, Charismatic, and Mine That Bird is a fair one in some respects. However, Mine That Bird was the Canadian champion so the idea that he was not top competition I believe is
And look at Golden Soul last year - his best finish before the Derby was a 2nd in the Lecomte and 4th in the Louisiana Derby - but he finished 2nd in the Derby. Was he top competition? According to Churchill he was - he made the top 20 in points with 14.
Giant Finish was third in the G3 Spiral Stakes. Was he top competition?
The fact remains as we all seem to agree - that the points system is flawed. At least grades stakes earnings did not discriminate against where you earned your graded stakes money.
The points system does reduce the influence of 2 year old races - but not if a horse with 10-14 points makes it to the gate since there would be a slew of horses at this level who would make the gate after their running in 2012 even if they did not step on the track.
We'll see - its only the second year of the points totals. Hopefully, the horses will stay healthy and 25 points or more will be the cut off. However, in my mind, reducing the number of races that provide points is unlikely to increase the point totals of horses in the standings for the Kentucky Derby and for my that reduces the level of competition. The real result of the standings from my perspective is to assure that folks at Santa Anita, the Fairgrounds, Gulfstream Park, and Aqueduct get a slew of races for their fans which will feature eventual Kentucky Derby entrants. If you are near those tracks - then you benefit.
I suppose it could be coincidental, but the points system was implemented not long after Mine That Bird's Derby win caused the Sunland Derby to become graded. I'm sure Churchill officials were doing backflips over a Canadian Champion gelding who got his clock cleaned in the Breeder's Cup and couldn't win a prep in New Mexico being not only eligible for their signature race but making a shambles of the field.
And some of the horses who didn't make it in, like Rock Hard Ten in 2004, should have been the 21st or the 22nd entrant. Was it 2002 that Baffert surprised everyone by entering Danthebluegrassman thus bumping a Team Valor horse? Then Baffert had to scratch Dan because he tied up the morning before the race. Neither he or the Team Valor horse ran. Again I'd let anyone and everyone enter. Increase the entry fee to discourage the owners who just want a box. If too many enter still and the race is split than so be it. I really don't think you will have 1974 numbers very often if at all. One of the only handful of winners of the NYRA Filly Triple Crown, Chris Evert coincidentally in 1974, won a split first leg and I don't think that has diminished her legacy any.
I don't think Churchill cares one iota about safety. If they did they would limit the field size to 14. That being said, the point system is new and it will go through some tweaking before it stays relatively constant. The idea is good as it puts more emphasis on what is done late as the horse is developing as opposed to rewarding precocity. The Loan Shark (nee Hollywood) Futurity should have been and should be--if it is resurrected at Los Alamitos--included. Given its relatively short history, it has produced horses that have done some good in Kentucky, e.g. Gato Del Sol, Desert Wine, Fali Time, Ferdinand, Alysheba, Best Pal, Real Quiet, Giacomo, etc. Eventually, and I believe this has already begun, the points system will affect the fields of races not awarded points. I don't believe the Futurity formally known as Hollywood was effected in this instance but if it continues and as such continues not to be included, it will have an effect and that will justify Churchill's action.
Regarding the Sunland Derby - if Mine That Bird's win was a concern then it would not be one of the races that provides points.
I can agree that safety probably is not the greatest concern of the Churchill officials - but rather controlling the race and not having a split field might be.
They want a definitive winner for the top three year old race in the world..
And they likely want to control the boxes provided to owners...a split field with 28 entrants would cause them to have to provide that many boxes.
Evert's legacy was not diminished because she won the other legs. If that split race was her top victory - then it may have affected her legacy.
And the notion of having two Derby winners for a race other than by a dead heat would likely not sit well with Churchill Downs.
As I said - I support a smaller field. I think 20 is too many - the large field forces luck to play too much of a role in the final outcome.
I would support a rule if more than 16 enter the race split the field. But Churchill will not. That is the real problem.
Quote from: Man o Taz on January 16, 2014, 11:38:32 AM
Regarding the Sunland Derby - if Mine That Bird's win was a concern then it would not be one of the races that provides points.
I can agree that safety probably is not the greatest concern of the Churchill officials - but rather controlling the race and not having a split field might be.
They want a definitive winner for the top three year old race in the world..
And they likely want to control the boxes provided to owners...a split field with 28 entrants would cause them to have to provide that many boxes.
Evert's legacy was not diminished because she won the other legs. If that split race was her top victory - then it may have affected her legacy.
And the notion of having two Derby winners for a race other than by a dead heat would likely not sit well with Churchill Downs.
As I said - I support a smaller field. I think 20 is too many - the large field forces luck to play too much of a role in the final outcome.
I would support a rule if more than 16 enter the race split the field. But Churchill will not. That is the real problem.
I know the winner receives points but are the points earned commensurate with the purse? This is the biggest inherent problem with the point system is that it dictates to a large degree where connections must campaign their horses. It's too much like the old BCS system in college football. I would be more in favor of going back to graded earnings if you can combine the allegedly good intentions of the point system. To make that work, however, no two-year-old races should be graded until the Breeder's Cup.
I agree 100%. I would prefer the wide open graded stakes earnings system to the present points schedule system. I would support even a graded stakes earnings system which gave you $.50 on the dollar for 2 year old races.
I believe it serves no one's interest except the tracks hosting the derby points preps races to have a limited points system.
I had high hopes the points system would lead to more competitive races, and even more three year old races as horses wishing to enter the derby needed to gain at least 25-30 points.
We'll see how this year goes.
Just a follow-up on Reply No. 25 where I forgot to finish a sentence:
Your point regarding Canonero II, Gato Del Sol, Charismatic, and Mine That Bird is a fair one in some respects. However, Mine That Bird was the Canadian champion so the idea that he was not top competition I believe is incorrect. Especially since as a winner of the Grey Cup and with a 4th place finish in the Sunland Derby he would have had more than enough points to make it in the gate for the Kentucky Derby last year had the points system been in effect. We'll see if this trend continues with 10-14 points being the cut-off. I think it will based upon injuries, late bloomers, and less races where you can get points.
Quote from: Man o Taz on January 31, 2014, 06:41:33 AM
Just a follow-up on Reply No. 25 where I forgot to finish a sentence:
Your point regarding Canonero II, Gato Del Sol, Charismatic, and Mine That Bird is a fair one in some respects. However, Mine That Bird was the Canadian champion so the idea that he was not top competition I believe is incorrect. Especially since as a winner of the Grey Cup and with a 4th place finish in the Sunland Derby he would have had more than enough points to make it in the gate for the Kentucky Derby last year had the points system been in effect. We'll see if this trend continues with 10-14 points being the cut-off. I think it will based upon injuries, late bloomers, and less races where you can get points.
My comment about Mine That Bird had nothing to do with the point system. I know he was the Canadian Champion at two. I also know he got absolutely drilled in the BC Juvenile while in Dick Mandella's barn. So then he was transferred to--I can't remember his name, he was the cowboy who couldn't find a men's room. Do you suppose if Mandella saw anything at all he might have wanted to keep him? Do you suppose any so. CA trainer had seen anything in him they would have volunteered to take him? The horse got hot and got good at precisely the right time. The fact he could mud didn't hurt either. This is why I don't like a point system to play god and decide whom should enter. Though Mine That Bird might have snuck in anyway there are others that can't get in that might be able to run big on the first Saturday in May. I also think if you look back, both Gato Del Sol and Charismatic had more going for them before the Derby than Mine That Bird did. Didn't matter though they all got to get their pictures taken munching on roses.
Perhaps you can clarify some points for me.
It seems that you question Mine That Bird's worthiness to be in the gate for the Kentucky Derby, but you want as many entries as owners who want to enter their horses into the race?
These seem contradictory ideas.
Or is it just that some Kentucky Derby winners are more worthy than others in your mind?
Quote from: Man o Taz on February 03, 2014, 06:22:02 AM
Perhaps you can clarify some points for me.
It seems that you question Mine That Bird's worthiness to be in the gate for the Kentucky Derby, but you want as many entries as owners who want to enter their horses into the race?
These seem contradictory ideas.
Or is it just that some Kentucky Derby winners are more worthy than others in your mind?
On paper ... it was baffling that Mine That Bird was in that race. There were only 2 horses in that field that I INSTANTLY tossed ... he was one of them.
But hey ... it's horse racing ... and as sometimes happens ... the result defied logic ... it happens ...:)
Quote from: Man o Taz on February 03, 2014, 06:22:02 AM
Perhaps you can clarify some points for me.
It seems that you question Mine That Bird's worthiness to be in the gate for the Kentucky Derby, but you want as many entries as owners who want to enter their horses into the race?
These seem contradictory ideas.
Or is it just that some Kentucky Derby winners are more worthy than others in your mind?
I never question any horse's worthiness to enter a race if a horse is healthy and able. My point is that if you leave it up to
neutral parties to decide who should be in a race, you very well may end up changing history If you were going to leave a horse out based on supposed worthiness, Mine That Bird is a good example of one who could have been excluded. Some horses loved Churchill Downs and were pre-disposed to get the distance, e.g. Canonero II, Gato Del Sol, Ferdinand, Charismatic, Giacomo, Mine That Bird, etc. You could make the argument that horses like Hansel and Skip Away should have skipped the Derby because they didn't like Churchill. Of course both horses belonged based on form so it was worth a shot and even if they didn't fit based on form as most of my examples, it was still worth a shot as long as it wasn't detrimental to the horse.
If a horse wins the KY Derby they are a worthy Derby winner, even Dancer's Image. I do think some Derby winners are better horses than others. The only similarities between Secretariat and Gato Del Sol, for example, is that they both had four legs and a tail and won the Derby. I liken it to the MLB Hall of Fame. You have HOF outfielders like Willie Mays, Henry Aaron and Roberto Clemente and you also have Andre Dawson, Jim Rice and Carl Yaztrzemski. The latter three are excellent players and worthy Hall of Famers but if I'm choosing a team, I'll take the former trio.
Good points.
You are right and we cannot know by graded stakes earnings, or a point system now how many horses might have or will be excluded who might have done quite well in the Kentucky Derby.
And I also agree that just because you might not actually do well over the track, that does not mean you should not at least try the race if you qualify.
And I agree that some Kentucky Derby winning horses are better than others (and this is usually based upon what they do before and after the race) - but I do not believe that some Kentucky winners are more deserving than others.
I believe all the horses who have won the race are deserving winners.
Also, in my thinking with a 20 horse field - bad luck is a legitimate circumstances to factor in - because a field that size is always going to create adverse conditions .
How about this for the Kentucky Derby points system?
You set a points minimum total to get in the gate. Something like 30 or 40 points.
Only horses who accumulate that many points are eligible to get in the gate.
This way if horses don't meet the point total then you only have 10-12 horses competing.
If you get more than 20 horses who meet that number, then you break the tie with the horse with the greatest number of points.
This is actually what I had hoped the point system would do - force horses to compete more to get in the starting gate - not less.
OK - so perhaps I am wrong in suggesting that this year will have the same or less points getting in the gate for the Kentucky Derby than occurred last year with the contraction of Derby points races...it seems we have many more horses with 10 points or more at this stage of the game than we had last year - and 10 points was the lowest points number for the Kentucky Derby 2013...
Giant Finish had 10 points and got in the gate. Fear The Kitten did not make it in with 6.
Of course, many of the 10 point horses right now are likely to increase their number.
The reality is that in 2013 the points total ranged from 10 points to 150 points.
This is why I think a point minimum may be a good approach.
Here are the current standings...
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 Intense Holiday Todd Pletcher 53 $327,500
2 Wildcat Red Jose Garrafalo 50 $410,000
3 Albano Larry Jones 24 $150,000
4 Tapiture Steve Asmussen 22 $300,738
5 Vicar's in Trouble Mike Maker 20 $160,000
6 General a Rod Mike Maker 20 $140,000
7 Havana Todd Pletcher 14 $660,000
8 Cairo Prince Kiaran McLaughlin 14 $470,000
9 Honor Code Shug McGaughey 14 $340,000
10 Tamarando Jerry Holldendorfer 12 $490,000
11 Midnight Hawk Bob Baffert 12 $84,000
12 Bond Holder Doug O'Neill 11 $273,000
13 Rise Up Tom Amoss 10 $786,633
14 We Miss Artie Todd Pletcher 10 $262,000
15 Candy Boy John Sadler 10 $260,000
16 Samraat Rick Violette 10 $150,000
17 Noble Moon Leah Gyarmati 10 $145,000
18 Ami's Holiday Josie Carroll 10 $136,145
19 Cleburne Dale Romans 10 $102,044
20 Tanzanite Cat Cody Autrey 10 $99,000
21 Top Billing Shug McGaughey 10 $40,000
22 Strong Mandate D. Wayne Lukas 6 $442,500
23 Casiguapo Mario Morales 5 $271,050
24 Classic Giacnroll Lisa Guerrero 5 $62,500
25 Ride On Curlin Billy Gowan 5 $94,387
26 East Hall Bill Kaplan 5 $47,550
27 Hoppertunity Bob Baffert 5 $16,000
28 Conquest Titan Mark Casse 4 $163,445
29 Smarty's Echo Anne Smith 4 $82,000
30 Uncle Sigh Gary Contessa 4 $50,000
31 Walt Chris Hartman 4 $45,857
32 Scotland Tony Dutrow 4 $45,000
33 Chitu Bob Baffert 4 $40,000
34 Laddie Boy Chuck Peery 4 $39,719
35 Smart Cover Dale Romans 4 $32,918
36 Big Bazinga Sandra Dominguez 4 $29,139
37 Kristo John Sadler 4 $20,000
38 Coastline Mark Casse 3 $77,979
39 Enterprising Tom Proctor 2 $91,100
40 Arctic Slope Ken McPeek 2 $41,572
41 Wicked Strong Jimmy Jerkens 2 $40,000
42 Gold Hawk Steve Asmussen 2 $28,000
43 Awesome Sky Mark Casse 2 $16,819
44 Diamond Bachelor Patrick Biancone 1 $92,000
45 Rum Point Doug O'Neill 1 $30,250
46 Almost Famous Patrick Byrne 1 $23,079
47 Matuszak Bill Mott 1 $12,667
48 Son of a Preacher Bret Calhoun 1 $11,500
49 Buck Magic Dave Fawkes 1 $8,410
50 I'll Wrap It Up Doug O'Neill 1 $6,000
Another corollary that is interesting to observe is - whether the new point system is putting less qualified horses in the gate...
One measure of this may be to examine the graded stakes earnings... of the entries...
Here is the final point for the Derby entries and it seems a bit disturbing...
Two on the entrants had stakes earnings of less than $100,000.
The irony, of course, is that one of those horses finished 2nd in the race which actually may lend support to curtis's argument that there should not be any Derby entrant qualification...all the horses who want to enter - should be able to enter...because as we saw last year - the 19th horse in terms of points and earnings finished a credible second.
Kentucky Derby 2013 point standings
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-restricted Stakes Earnings
1 Orb Shug McGaughey III 150 $840,000
2 Verrazano Todd Pletcher 150 $810,000
3 Goldencents Doug O'Neill 129 $1,208,000
4 Java's War Ken McPeek 122 $651,772
5 Overanalyze Todd Pletcher 110 $908,831
6 Revolutionary Todd Pletcher 110 $720,000
7 Lines of Battle Aidan O'Brien 100 $1,261,089
8 Vyjack Rudy Rodriguez 70 $505,000
9 Will Take Charge D. Wayne Lukas 60 $512,971
10 Itsmyluckyday Eddie Plesa, Jr. 50 $593,600
11 Black Onyx Kelly Breen 50 $317,130
12 Palace Malice Todd Pletcher 50 $200,000
13 Normandy Invasion Chad Brown 44 $258,000
14 Frac Daddy Ken McPeek 44 $240,596
15 Mylute Tom Amoss 42 $363,365
16 Oxbow D. Wayne Lukas 36 $346,000
17 Falling Sky John Terranova II 30 $207,500
18 Charming Kitten Todd Pletcher 20 $206,000
19 Golden Soul Dallas Stewart 14 $84,000
20 Giant Finish Tony Dutrow 10 $67,650
21 Fear the Kitten Mike Maker 6 $122,735
22 Carving Mike Puhich 2 $145,750
As it stands now, it looks like 10 will get you in...we'll see if that holds. If the favorites end up winning for the second year in a row it looks like that could be the mark.
For me, this is a low threshold and does not speak to encouraging quality to get in the gate.
As I have suggested, I think there should be a points minimum. 25 points or more are necessary to get in the gate. If you cannot achieve that, then only the horses with 25 or more points get in the gate.
I also highlighted 3 in the top 20 points wise that have yet to race this year. Of course, Honor Code we hope will change that...this week.
Updated: March 8, 2014
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2014-point-standings
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 Samraat Rick Violette Jr. 60 $450,500
2 Intense Holiday Todd Pletcher 53 $327,500
3 Wildcat Red Jose Garrafalo 50 $410,000
4 Ring Weekend H. Graham Motion 50 $210,000
5 California Chrome Art Sherman 50 $182,250
6 Midnight Hawk Bob Baffert 32 $144,000
t-7 Albano Larry Jones 24 $150,000
t-7 Uncle Sigh Gary Contessa 24 $150,000
9 Tapiture Steve Asmussen 22 $300,738
10 Vinceremos Todd Pletcher 20 $190,000
11 Vicar's in Trouble Mike Maker 20 $160,000
12 General a Rod Mike Maker 20 $140,000
13 Havana Todd Pletcher 14 $660,000
14 Cairo Prince Kiaran McLaughlin 14 $470,000
15 Honor Code Shug McGaughey 14 $340,000
16 Kristo John Sadler 14 $56,000
17 Tamarando Jerry Holldendorfer 12 $490,000
18 Bond Holder Doug O'Neill 11 $273,000
19 Rise Up Tom Amoss 10 $786,633
20 We Miss Artie Todd Pletcher 10 $262,000
21 Candy Boy John Sadler 10 $260,000
22 In Trouble Tony Dutrow 10 $170,000
23 Noble Moon Leah Gyarmati 10 $145,000
24 Ami's Holiday Josie Carroll 10 $136,145
25 Cleburne Dale Romans 10 $102,044
26 Tanzanite Cat Cody Autrey 10 $99,000
27 Surfing USA Todd Pletcher 10 $35,000
28 Conquest Titan Mark Casse 9 $180,495
29 Strong Mandate D. Wayne Lukas 6 $442,500
30 Casiguapo Mario Morales 5 $271,050
31 Ride On Curlin Billy Gowan 5 $94,387
32 Financial Mogul Rick Violette, Jr 5 $93,000
33 Classic Giacnroll Lisa Guerrero 5 $62,500
34 East Hall Bill Kaplan 5 $47,550
35 Schoolofhardknocks David Hofmans 5 $18,000
36 Hoppertunity Bob Baffert 5 $16,000
37 Smarty's Echo Anne Smith 4 $82,000
38 Walt Chris Hartman 4 $45,857
39 Scotland Tony Dutrow 4 $45,000
40 Laddie Boy Chuck Peery 4 $42,599
41 Chitu Bob Baffert 4 $40,000
42 Smart Cover Dale Romans 4 $32,918
43 Big Bazinga Sandra Dominguez 4 $29,139
44 Coastline Mark Casse 3 $77,979
45 Enterprising Tom Proctor 2 $91,100
46 Arctic Slope Ken McPeek 2 $41,572
47 Wicked Strong Jimmy Jerkens 2 $40,000
48 Gold Hawk Steve Asmussen 2 $28,000
49 Awesome Sky Mark Casse 2 $16,819
50 Diamond Bachelor Patrick Biancone 1 $92,000
51 Rum Point Doug O'Neill 1 $30,250
52 Almost Famous Patrick Byrne 1 $23,079
53 Matuszak Bill Mott 1 $22,667
54 Son of a Preacher Bret Calhoun 1 $11,500
55 Buck Magic Dave Fawkes 1 $8,410
56 I'll Wrap It Up Doug O'Neill 1 $6,000
I do find it curious that the points field has been trimmed from 56 horses to 45...is that because horses are injured?
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2014-point-standings
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 California Chrome Art Sherman 150 $782,250
2 Vicar's in Trouble Mike Maker 120 $760,000
3 Wicked Strong James Jerkens 102 $640,000
4 Samraat Rick Violette Jr. 100 $650,500
5 Constitution Todd Pletcher 100 $600,000
6 Hoppertunity Bob Baffert 95 $576,000
7 Intense Holiday Todd Pletcher 93 $527,500
8 Wildcat Red Jose Garrofalo 90 $665,500
9 We Miss Artie Todd Pletcher 60 $544,000
10 Chitu Bob Baffert 54 $440,000
11 Midnight Hawk Bob Baffert 52 $320,500
12 Ring Weekend H. Graham Motion 50 $260,000
13 Tapiture Steve Asmussen 42 $420,738
14 General a Rod Mike Maker 40 $240,000
15 Albano Larry Jones 34 $190,000
16 Candy Boy John Sadler 30 $380,000
17 Cairo Prince Kiaran McLaughlin 24 $520,000
18 Uncle Sigh Gary Contessa 24 $180,000
19 Vinceremos Todd Pletcher 20 $190,000
20 Harry's Holiday Mike Maker 20 $150,956
21 Commanding Curve Dallas Stewart 20 $140,000
22 Social Inclusion Manny Azpurua 20 $100,000
23 Ride on Curlin Billy Gowan 15 $154,387
24 Kristo John Sadler 14 $60,000
25 Coastline Mark Casse 13 $129,679
26 Tamarando Jerry Holldendorfer 12 $495,000
27 Strong Mandate D. Wayne Lukas 11 $472,500
28 Rise Up Tom Amoss 10 $786,633
29 Giovanni Boldini Aidan O'Brien 10 $345,676
30 In Trouble Tony Dutrow 10 $190,000
31 Noble Moon Leah Gyarmati 10 $149,000
32 Cleburne Dale Romans 10 $127,044
33 Commissioner Todd Pletcher 10 $104,000
34 Dublin Up Peter Miller 10 $20,000
35 Schiverelli Eddie Kenneally 10 $50,000
36 Conquest Titan Mark Casse 9 $180,495
37 Dance With Fate Peter Eurton 8 $150,000
38 Casiguapo Mario Morales 5 $271,050
39 East Hall Bill Kaplan 5 $77,550
40 Classic Giacnroll Lisa Guerrero 5 $62,500
41 Asserting Bear Reade Baker 5 $31,432
42 Schoolofhardknocks David Hofmans 5 $18,000
43 Scotland Tony Dutrow 4 $45,000
44 Big Bazinga Katerina Vassilieva 4 $44,469
45 Smart Cover Dale Romans 4 $38,418
Toast of New York ain't going, but it looks like you already removed him from the points standings:
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-toast-new-york-will-not-travel-churchill-downs (http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-toast-new-york-will-not-travel-churchill-downs)
BRIS pps by points ranking:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Derby14PointsPPs.pdf (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Derby14PointsPPs.pdf)
Thanks for the pps. That's a nice link.
did you see this? From DRF
The decision to skip the Derby has a significant impact in terms of the likely Derby field, since Albano was ranked 15th on the Derby points list with 34. His defection, combined with the withdrawal earlier this week of Toast of New York, helps horses who will end up on the bubble in terms of making the Derby field, which is capped at 20 runners.
No. Did not see that. Seems like Cairo Prince is getting in since it looks like Dance With Fate will skip the Derby and point to the Preakness since his trainer does not want to run him on three weeks rest.
Quote from: Man o Taz on April 14, 2014, 06:42:55 AM
No. Did not see that. Seems like Cairo Prince is getting in since it looks like Dance With Fate will skip the Derby and point to the Preakness since his trainer does not want to run him on three weeks rest.
Where did you read that? What I read was that they didn't want to run him because they wanted to keep him on the AW... at any rate it seems like his participation is up in the air. Derby fever might strike the owners.
I know they mentioned the all weather - but then they also mentioned the Preakness Stakes - so it seemed to me the more important issue was not surface, but rather the quick turna round.
You may be right though - Derby fever could strike the owners in the interim...but they seemed pretty firm - owners, jockey, trainer...that if anything the Preakness was the dirt option and not the Derby.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/13/sports/blue-grass-stakes-winner-isnt-likely-to-run-in-kentucky-derby.html?_r=0
He doesn't have the power to get through dirt," Eurton said. "It will break away from him. I've seen him train over synthetics, and he gets over it so much easier."
Eurton is also concerned about the swift three-week turnaround to the Derby.
Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Ky., is replacing its synthetic surface with a dirt track despite a record-setting year in 2013.On Horse Racing: A Track's Shift to Dirt Adds to Horses' RisksAPRIL 3, 2014
"I just don't like the idea of coming back that quick. I really don't," he said, indicating that their next target would probably be the Preakness at Baltimore's Pimlico Race Course on May 17.
The winning jockey, Corey Nakatani, held out little hope that he would be allowed a shot at the roses. "I know Pete's style," he said. "He tends to not run them back quick. He truly loves his horses."
http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/10773564/dance-fate-wins-blue-grass-stakes
But trainer Peter Eurton said the Derby, run at 1 ΒΌ miles on the dirt at Churchill Downs, is an unknown for the Florida-bred son of Two Step Salsa.
"I don't know [if we'll go to the Derby]; it's pretty quick three weeks back and I know he likes synthetic, I just don't know if he likes dirt," said Eurton, who trains for Sharon Alesia, Michael Mellen's Bran Jam Stable, and Joseph Ciaglia's Ciaglia Racing.
"I just don't know," Eurton said of the Derby. "It's three weeks and kind of quick back. I know he loves synthetic better, (likes) turf. I just don't know if he likes dirt. I know I'm going to hear it from everybody, though."
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/horseracing/2014/04/12/kentucky-derby-blue-grass-stakes-dance-with-fate/7654909/
He indicated the May 17 Preakness Stakes, the middle leg of the Triple Crown in Baltimore, makes more sense. "It's just more time, smaller field," Eurton said. "... Gosh, 20 horses. You get away bad in there, and you're plastered."
Joe Ciaglia Jr., who owns Dance With Fate with Sharon Alesia and Bran Jam Stable, called the Derby "an option."
"Our idea was not to go there," he said. "We wanted to see how it played out. The horse shows the ability to close and go long. It's something we'll talk about.
"... In this race today with 14 horses, I was very nervous. ... God, you go to 20 horses in the Derby. How am I going to really feel?... Just to go to the Derby just to say I was in the Derby, that's not what we're about. We want to go there and feel like our horse has a chance. We care about our horses, and we want to make sure they're here for a long time."
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2014-point-standings
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 California Chrome Art Sherman 150 $782,250
2 Vicar's in Trouble Mike Maker 120 $760,000
3 Dance With Fate Peter Eurton 108 $600,000
4 Wicked Strong Jimmy Jerkens 102 $640,000
5 Samraat Rick Violette Jr. 100 $650,000
6 Danza Todd Pletcher 100 $620,000
7 Constitution Todd Pletcher 100 $600,000
8 Hoppertunity Bob Baffert 95 $576,000
9 Intense Holiday Todd Pletcher 93 $527,500
10 Wildcat Red Jose Garrofalo 90 $665,500
11 We Miss Artie Todd Pletcher 60 $544,000
12 Ride on Curlin Billy Gowan 55 $354,387
13 Chitu Bob Baffert 54 $440,000
14 Tapiture Steve Asmussen 52 $470,378
15 Midnight Hawk Bob Baffert 52 $320,500
16 Ring Weekend H. Graham Motion 50 $260,000
17 General a Rod Mike Maker 40 $240,000
18 Medal Count Dale Romans 40 $226,500
19 Candy Boy John Sadler 30 $380,000
20 Cairo Prince Kiaran McLaughlin 24 $520,000
21 Uncle Sigh Gary Contessa 24 $180,000
22 Vinceremos Todd Pletcher 20 $191,666
23 Harry's Holiday Mike Maker 20 $152,622
24 Commanding Curve Dallas Stewart 20 $140,000
25 Pablo Del Monte Wesley Ward 20 $102,000
26 Bayern Bob Baffert 20 $100,000
27 Social Inclusion Manny Azpurua 20 $100,000
28 Big Bazinga Katerina Vassilieva 14 $92,149
29 Coastline Mark Casse 13 $131,346
30 Strong Mandate D. Wayne Lukas 11 $479,166
31 In Trouble Tony Dutrow 10 $190,000
32 Noble Moon Leah Gyarmati 10 $149,000
33 Cleburne Dale Romans 10 $127,044
34 Commissioner Todd Pletcher 10 $110,667
35 Schiverelli Eddie Kenneally 10 $50,000
36 Conquest Titan Mark Casse 9 $210,945
38 Casiguapo Mario Morales 5 $272,717
39 Asserting Bear Reade Baker 5 $33,099
Quote from: Man o Taz on April 14, 2014, 07:17:16 AM
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2014-point-standings
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 California Chrome Art Sherman 150 $782,250
2 Vicar's in Trouble Mike Maker 120 $760,000
3 Dance With Fate Peter Eurton 108 $600,000
4 Wicked Strong Jimmy Jerkens 102 $640,000
5 Samraat Rick Violette Jr. 100 $650,000
6 Danza Todd Pletcher 100 $620,000
7 Constitution Todd Pletcher 100 $600,000
8 Hoppertunity Bob Baffert 95 $576,000
9 Intense Holiday Todd Pletcher 93 $527,500
10 Wildcat Red Jose Garrofalo 90 $665,500
11 We Miss Artie Todd Pletcher 60 $544,000
12 Ride on Curlin Billy Gowan 55 $354,387
13 Chitu Bob Baffert 54 $440,000?
14 Tapiture Steve Asmussen 52 $470,378
15 Midnight Hawk Bob Baffert 52 $320,500
16 Ring Weekend H. Graham Motion 50 $260,000
17 General a Rod Mike Maker 40 $240,000
18 Medal Count Dale Romans 40 $226,500
19 Candy Boy John Sadler 30 $380,000
20 Cairo Prince Kiaran McLaughlin 24 $520,000
21 Uncle Sigh Gary Contessa 24 $180,000
22 Vinceremos Todd Pletcher 20 $191,666
23 Harry's Holiday Mike Maker 20 $152,622
24 Commanding Curve Dallas Stewart 20 $140,000
25 Pablo Del Monte Wesley Ward 20 $102,000
26 Bayern Bob Baffert 20 $100,000
27 Social Inclusion Manny Azpurua 20 $100,000
28 Big Bazinga Katerina Vassilieva 14 $92,149
29 Coastline Mark Casse 13 $131,346
30 Strong Mandate D. Wayne Lukas 11 $479,166
31 In Trouble Tony Dutrow 10 $190,000
32 Noble Moon Leah Gyarmati 10 $149,000
33 Cleburne Dale Romans 10 $127,044
34 Commissioner Todd Pletcher 10 $110,667
35 Schiverelli Eddie Kenneally 10 $50,000
36 Conquest Titan Mark Casse 9 $210,945
38 Casiguapo Mario Morales 5 $272,717
39 Asserting Bear Reade Baker 5 $33,099
No need to update since Mr. Speaker's 10 points will not factor into who gets in the starting gate in two weeks.
Just for fun I checked to see how many of the top 20 I have had the chance to see in person the last two years...10 of them...
And if Social Inclusion makes it...11.
Its curious Tamarando is not listed on current Kentucky Derby point totals since he is still in training.
He has 12 points...not enough to get him in the Derby - and it looks like not providing points for the Cash Call Futurity will not penalize any horses...since he would have only had 14...if the Cash Call's third place finish awarded him points.
However, it does look, with the defections, that 10 points may have been enough to get him in the gate since he would have held the tiebreaker with the most graded stakes earnings of any other horse with 22 points...
Well, with Bayern's running in the Derby Trial it looks like a 14 point horse may get in the gate after all...since Pablo Del Monte is the last 20 point horse and he is sitting at 21.
I don't know if Big Bazinga made the trip to Churchill Downs - but he might be able to make it in...
I think 20 points is still too low a total for a horse to make the gate at Churchill Downs. I think it should be a minimum of 25 points or you don't get in.
That would mean Candy Boy would be the last horse to get into the gate with 30.
Entering the gate at Churchill Downs should not just be something that you earn - but it should also be something that you deserve...and being able to accumulate 10 points last year, and 20 points this year when you have other horses entering the gate with 7 times that to me is a shame.
I also think you should have to finish in the money in a minimum of two graded stakes as well - it could be as a two year old or a three year old - but you should have to demonstrate a level of consistency as a top horse to make the gate.
Now, some want to suggest that the 2009 Kentucky Derby had one of the weakest fields - and suggest that Mine That Bird was undeserving to even be in the gate, but he has been the champion two year old in Canada and that by itself should entitle him to enter the gate given his earnings, etc.
I know this would exclude a horse like Danza that managed to have one big hit...from making the gate....but I believe the top three year old race should be for the top horses.
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2014-point-standings
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 California Chrome Art Sherman 150 $782,250
2 Vicar's in Trouble Mike Maker 120 $760,000
3 Dance With Fate Peter Eurton 108 $600,000
4 Wicked Strong Jimmy Jerkens 102 $630,000
5 Samraat Rick Violette Jr. 100 $640,000
6 Danza Todd Pletcher 100 $620,000
7 Hoppertunity Bob Baffert 95 $576,000
8 Intense Holiday Todd Pletcher 93 $527,500
9 Wildcat Red Jose Garrofalo 90 $610,000
10 We Miss Artie Todd Pletcher 60 $544,000
11 Ride on Curlin Billy Gowan 55 $354,387
12 Chitu Bob Baffert 54 $440,000
13 Tapiture Steve Asmussen 52 $470,378
14 General a Rod Mike Maker 40 $240,000
15 Medal Count Dale Romans 40 $226,500
16 Candy Boy John Sadler 30 $380,000
17 Uncle Sigh Gary Contessa 24 $180,000
18 Vinceremos Todd Pletcher 20 $191,666
19 Harry's Holiday Mike Maker 20 $152,622
20 Commanding Curve Dallas Stewart 20 $140,000
21 Pablo Del Monte Wesley Ward 20 $102,000
22 Big Bazinga Katerina Vassilieva 14 $92,149
23 Coastline Mark Casse 13 $131,346
24 Strong Mandate D. Wayne Lukas 11 $479,166
25 In Trouble Tony Dutrow 10 $190,000
26 Noble Moon Leah Gyarmati 10 $170,000
27 Cleburne Dale Romans 10 $127,044
28 Commissioner Todd Pletcher 10 $110,667
29 Schiverelli Eddie Kenneally 10 $40,000
30 Conquest Titan Mark Casse 9 $210,945
31 Casiguapo Mario Morales 5 $272,717
32 Asserting Bear Reade Baker 5 $33,099