Belmont Stakes

[stark]

[Man o Taz]

I like Exaggerator/Destin 1st or 2nd followed by Lani and Creator.

[peeptoad]

for the more list-oriented viewer:

1. Governor Malibu, Joel Rosario, 12-1
2. Destin, Javier Castellano, 6-1
3. Cherry Wine, Corey Lanerie, 8-1
4. Suddenbreakingnews, Mike Smith, 10-1
5. Stradivari, John Velazquez, 5-1
6. Gettysburg, Paco Lopez, 30-1
7. Seeking the Soul, Florent Geroux, 30-1
8. Forever d'Oro, Jose Ortiz, 30-1
9. Trojan Nation, Aaron Gryder, 30-1
10. Lani, Yutake Take, 20-1
11. Exaggerator, Kent Desormeaux, 9-5
12. Brody's Cause, Luis Saez, 20-1
13. Creator, Irad Ortiz Jr., 10-1

[afleetphil]

1./ Exaggerator
2./ Cherry Wine
3./ Stradivari

[stark]

Jay Privman ‏@DRFPrivman  34m34 minutes ago
8 of last 16 Belmonts have been won by a horse who ran in Ky Derby or Oaks, then had 5 weeks to prepare for Belmont

That's 50% since the turn of the century!

[stark]

Primary WIN play for me will be Megyn Kelly's tip horse SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS with Mike Smith timing the ride perfectly.

Small hunch play saver bet will be on Getttysburg with Paco Lopez to steal it wire to wire, I just love it when the pro's say "he's nothing more than a rabbit for his stablemate".

Exactas, tri and super will include the logical chalk.

Good luck, enjoy the show!

[stark]

Updated PPs for the 13
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/BelmontStakes16.pdf

[peeptoad]

I haven't fully looked at this one (or any of the BEL races really) yet, but I am probably siding against both Romans horses and Destin. I prefer Stradivari of the two Pletchers, though he's likely not my primary play.
The 5 I like best so far in the field are Gov Malibu, Stradivari, Suddenbreakingnews, Creator, and of course Exaggerator. I'm giving the maiden and the recent maiden winners a pass. I understand this race can (and has) produced some crazy winners and wild payouts, but this is a decent enough rendition that I think those 3 will find the waters far too deep at this stage.

[Man o Taz]

i have no idea why i don't remember that at all. just remember sun and no reflecting/standing water on the dirt (as seen in the video). even equibase has it labeled as "fast", same for the humana distaff earlier that day. sorry. *shrug*

You can see some reflecting water when they go around the far turn.

[Zenyatta]

I don't see anyone coming even close to Exxagerator. He's getting better and better and neither distance nor weather are questions. And to think, this is the same colt I screamed my lungs out to win the Delta Jackpot. That little but rich race on a podunk bullring track will become a G1 at this rate. Since 2008 there have been 3 exceptional horses coming out of that race - Big Drama, Goldencents and now Exaggerator.

[CA_Chrome]

Re Exaggerator, Curlin has turned into one heck of a fine sire.

[peeptoad]

Probably playing the exact, maybe tri. If I had to bet one horse right now it would be Governor Malibu. He's improving, has some tactical speed, and has posted good closing pace in all his races so far. Plus the price will be right. My only concern is the distance and the only real reason I have mild concern is because Clement himself went on record saying he feels the pedigree is not all there for 12F and he just hopes the horse is good enough. I think he is, but he'll need Exaggerator to have an off day and he'll need to fend off the two Pletchers, both of which will legitimately take $.
Otherwise I'm liking Stradivari and Exaggerator and neither will be any sort of value.

Governor Malibu
Stradivari
Exaggerator/ Creator/SBN/Lani

I realize the rabbit is in there to provide pace, but at this distance he would have to set absolutely torrid fractions to set up any sort of run for horses like Creator, Lani and SBN. Not sure that will happen, but I'll hedge by throwing those guys underneath.

[Man o Taz]

I think Gettysburg will be setting a torrid pace which is exactly why they had to switch barns with him. Pletcher would enter him at a more moderate pace, but to set up Creator as you suggest it will take a quicker pace which he will provide. I say he gives way to Destin or Stradivari after about 8 furlongs. Then it is just a question about who can hold on and who can close.

I think Exaggerator gets the job done, with Destin, Lani and Creator filling in the superfecta. I see Brody's Cause as a possible coming late too.

Cherry Wine was too good his last out.

Stradivari I still think is a bit young.

Governor Malibu I wonder if he is this level of a horse yet.

Good luck to everyone.

[Zenyatta]

Exaggerator seemed very keen early on but in hindsight on this Triple Crown, while we had no Triple Crown winner, quality-wise, it was a good one: Nyquist, 2 year old champion, Florida Derby winner, wins the Derby; Exaggerator,  Santa Anita Derby winner, takes the Preakness, and Creator, Arkansas Derby champ, captures the Belmont.

[peeptoad]

Nice job by Creator! 
He was my Derby pick and got a bad trip, validated himself today... he was actually my 2nd choice here behind Gov Malibu who didn't have the best of it coming down the stretch, but probably wouldn't have won anyway.