How do you rate this crop of three year olds?

[Man o Taz]

I read on a lot of forums where this crop of three year olds, earlier regarded as one of the strongest in a decade, at least, is now regarded a mediocre.

Frankly, I do not know on what basis this claim can be made.

The top 4 finishers in the Kentucky Derby were among the favorites to win the race. The top 2 favorites finished 1 and 3.

The Preakness was a toss. And the top 2 finishers in the Belmont were the top two horses odds on.

Since the Derby the horses - except for the TC winners have run once...so based on this evidence how can one of the strongest fields be regarded as one of the weakest.

This also denies the special nature of this year's competitors:

Carpe Diem was a top 2 year old and came back to win all his prep races at 3.
American Pharoah did the same.
International Star did the same.
Dortmund did the same. 
Mubtaahij did the same.
Firing Line earned his first stakes win in impressive fashion.

When do you ever have top quality horses display this level of consistency?

[Man o Taz]

American Pharoah
Del Mar Futurity
Frontrunner Stakes
Rebel Stakes
Arkansas Derby
Kentucky Derby
Preakness Stakes
Belmont Stakes

Dortmund
Los Alamitos Futurity
Robert Lewis
San Felipe
Santa Anita Derby

Carpe Diem
Breeders Futurity
Tampa Bay Derby
Bluegrass Stakes

International Star
Lecomte
Risen Star
Louisiana Derby

Mubtaahij
UAE 2000 Guineas
UAE Al Bastakiya
UAE Derby

El Kabeir
Kentucky Jockey Cub
Jerome Handicap
Gotham Stakes

Materiality
Islamadora Stakes
Florida Derby

And then look at all the single stakes winners who have also finished in the money in major stakes:

Firing Line
Sunland Derby
2nd Los Alamitos Futurity
2nd Robert Lewis
2nd Kentucky Derby

Frosted
Wood Memorial
2nd Holy Bull
2nd Belmont Stakes

Upstart
Holy Bull
2nd Fountain of Youth
2nd Florida Derby
3rd BC Juvenile

Madefromlucky
Peter Pan
2nd Rebel Stakes

[Man o Taz]

No takers to agree or disagree regarding the strength so far of this field?

[Senator L]

I think many people base horses and crops on Beyer figures  :chickendance:
They might be a very useful tool but I think it is unfair to solely judge a horse
by them. This is what happened to Cigar and many others. I also think the final
judgement of the crop comes in the 4th year. This crop has produced a triple
crown winner which is a pretty strong indicator IMO. The other thing is "who
cares what other people think" :chickendance:

[peeptoad]

I agree with senator not to rely on speed figs too much, but imho this seems like a pretty good crop, with one standout so far. Things change during the 2nd half of the year commonly though, so I'll be looking for some of the others to improve and step it up.
Unfortunately, with the way horses are campaigned and then retired early these days we might not be able to get a true assessment of the crop before many of them disappear.

[afleetphil]

I agree with MOT. I think this is a very good crop of three yr. olds. Might be up there with the 2007 crop, Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday. We got a triple crown winner after 37 yrs., Dortmund is a beast, Firing Line, Frosted, Carpe Diem, Materiality and a refreshed Texas Red. That's quiet a roster.

[Man o Taz]

Thank you all for your thoughtful responses.

The irony could be if American Pharoah appears to be chomping at the bit to race come late July and he gets sent to the Haskell and Travers and wins - our superstar will continue making the other three  year olds look ordinary. And I agree - that just because you have one very good horse that does not mean the others are bad. 

[curtis]

Thank you all for your thoughtful responses.

The irony could be if American Pharoah appears to be chomping at the bit to race come late July and he gets sent to the Haskell and Travers and wins - our superstar will continue making the other three  year olds look ordinary. And I agree - that just because you have one very good horse that does not mean the others are bad. 

It doesn't mean they are bad per se because American Pharoah is so dominant but judging the others can't really be done at this point in my opinion.  I really think that a few years needs to pass before enough facts are evident to truly judge.  Listing the restricted races is not a true measure because someone from this crop had to win those races.  Dortmund has a similar resume to Brother Derek who was similar to California Chrome.  If Dortmund can continue on and at least prove to be a top flight horse like Chrome then he can be judged accordingly.  If he goes the way of Brother Derek then he again he can be judged accordingly.  It obviously won't be as favorable, however.

[Man o Taz]

It doesn't mean they are bad per se because American Pharoah is so dominant but judging the others can't really be done at this point in my opinion.  I really think that a few years needs to pass before enough facts are evident to truly judge.  Listing the restricted races is not a true measure because someone from this crop had to win those races.  Dortmund has a similar resume to Brother Derek who was similar to California Chrome.  If Dortmund can continue on and at least prove to be a top flight horse like Chrome then he can be judged accordingly.  If he goes the way of Brother Derek then he again he can be judged accordingly.  It obviously won't be as favorable, however.

True. However, what I see is a couple of good horses beating the other quality challengers which is very rare in Derby preps.

Dortmund beat a talented* Firing Line, Prospect Park, and Mr. Z. Multiple G1 winner (4).
International Star beat a talented Stanford, War Story, and Keen Ice. Multiple graded stakes winner (3).
Carpe Diem beat a talented Ami's Flatter, Divining Rod, Ocho Ocho Ocho, Mr. Z. Multiple G1 winner. (3)
Materiality beat a talented Stanford and Upstart. Multiple stakes winner. (2)
Upstart beat a talented Frosted, Keen Ice, and Frammento. Graded stakes winner. (1)
Frosted beat a talented Daredevil, El Kabeir and Tencendur. G1 stakes winner. (1)
Mubtaahij beat a talented Maftool. Multiple graded stakes winner. (2)
El Kabeir beat a talented International Star and Classy Class. Multiple graded stakes winner. (3)
Ocho Ocho Ocho beat a talented Mr. Z. (2)

And American Pharoah beat all of these horses that beat the others except International Star - and a couple of them twice.

How often do we see 6 horses who compete on the TC trail who are multiple graded stakes winners? I think it is rare.

*Note: I define talented as a horse that has won a graded stakes race, or placed multiple times in a graded stakes race.

[Man o Taz]

American Pharoah
Del Mar Futurity
Frontrunner Stakes
Rebel Stakes
Arkansas Derby
Kentucky Derby
Preakness Stakes
Belmont Stakes
Haskell Invitational

Dortmund
Los Alamitos Futurity
Robert Lewis
San Felipe
Santa Anita Derby

Carpe Diem
Breeders Futurity
Tampa Bay Derby
Bluegrass Stakes

International Star
Lecomte
Risen Star
Louisiana Derby

Mubtaahij
UAE 2000 Guineas
UAE Al Bastakiya
UAE Derby

El Kabeir
Kentucky Jockey Cub
Jerome Handicap
Gotham Stakes

Madefromlucky
West Virginia Derby
Peter Pan
2nd Rebel Stakes

Materiality
Islamadora Stakes
Florida Derby

And then look at all the single stakes winners who have also finished in the money in major stakes:

Firing Line
Sunland Derby
2nd Los Alamitos Futurity
2nd Robert Lewis
2nd Kentucky Derby

Frosted
Wood Memorial
2nd Holy Bull
2nd Belmont Stakes
2nd Jim Dandy Stakes

Upstart
Holy Bull
2nd Fountain of Youth
2nd Florida Derby
3rd Haskell Invitational
3rd BC Juvenile

Texas Red
Jim Dandy
2nd Dwyer Stakes
2nd San Vicente

An update.

Strikethrough means injured, retired, or layoff since TC trail.

Look at 5 of the top multiple stakes winners are not racing right now and one of the single stakes winners.