Derby Picks

[afleetphil]

1./ Dortmund
2./ Firing Line
3./ American Pharoah

[Senator L]

I'm switching by the hour  :chickendance:

[peeptoad]

1: Ocho Ocho Ocho 50-1
2: Carpe Diem 8-1
3: Materiality 12-1
4: Tencendur 30-1
5: Danzig Moon 30-1
6: Mubtaahij 20-1
7: El Kabeir 30-1
8: Dortmund 3-1
9: Bolo 30-1
10: Firing Line 12-1
11: Stanford 30-1
12: International Star 20-1
13: Itsaknockout 30-1
14: Keen Ice 50-1
15: Frosted 15-1
16: War Story 50-1
17: Mr. Z 50-1
18: American Pharoah 5-2
19: Upstart 15-1
20: Far Right 30-1

[Dusty]

I am so waffling this year = but I guess that is a good thing = seems to me to be WIDE OPEN

[peeptoad]

Still sorting things out... my top pick for a  number of reasons (running style, relative speed, post position, etc.) is Frosted and that probably won't change, although I don't have complete confidence since this Derby is very strong on quality.
Right now  the top 3 WIN candidates for me are:
Frosted
Upstart
American Pharaoh

I do like Mubtaahij's chances a bit more (esp. if he stays around the ML) since he drew a good post and a number of other top horses did not draw quite as well.
I absolutely would not be surprised if Dortmund wins, but I'm going to let him beat me. Probably use him underneath only.

[Raven]

Upstart,Dortmund.    I'll take a DH.  Upstart is my #1 pick
Second tier
Frosted,Carpet Diem,Firing Line
Third tier
StanfordTencedur

But that's just me!!!



Spiro

[Raven]

Stanford scratched.

[The Tin Man]

Although I'm not thrilled with Pharoah's post ... I've been set on the following as my order for the last 2 or 3 months ... so I'm sticking with it ...

American Pharoah
Carpe Diem
Dortmund

I've been on Pharoah as the winner since last year and he's done nothing to disappoint, so I'm sticking with him. 

[peeptoad]

Haven't got everything sorted out yet, but:

WIN 1st tier (A): Frosted, Upstart, Pharoah
underneath 2nd tier (B): Carpe Diem, Materiality, Mubtaahij, Dortmund, Firing Line,
underneath 3rd tier (C): Danzig Moon, Bolo, Int'l Star, Keen Ice, Far Right
underneath 4th tier (D): Tencedur, Itsaknockout, War Story, Mr Z, Frammento

For exacta purposes I will probably go light and box the top 3 and 1 or 2 from 2nd tier. I might skip the exact and look deeper for exotics though...

Trifecta possibles:
A/A/C,D

Super possibles:
A/A/B/C,D
A/B/A/C,D
A/C/B/D

etc. Will figure this out in more detail tonight...

[peeptoad]

My likely/probable bets for today...


CD4: #4 Rocket Time- WP at 5/1 or better
CD5: 2,4,5,6 exacta box
CD6: #5 Another Lemon Drop- WPS (ML 20/1, would take 15/1 or better here)
CD9: #5 Pants On Fire- WP at 9/2 or better

CD11:
#15 Frosted, #19 Upstart- WPS
8,15,18,19 exacta box

super possibles (not betting all of these):
Frosted, Upstart/Frosted, Upstart/Dortmund, Pharoah/Carpe Diem, Tencendur, Danzig Moon, Mubtaahij, Bolo, Far Right
Frosted, Upstart/Dortmund, Pharoah/Frosted, Upstart/Carpe Diem, Tencendur, Danzig Moon, Mubtaahij, Bolo, Far Right
Dortmund, Pharoah/Carpe Diem, Tencendur, Danzig Moon, Mubtaahij, Bolo, Far Right/Frosted, Upstart/Dortmund, Pharoah

good luck!!    :chickendance:

[Senator L]

Good luck today everyone

CD R4 #7 Jessica's Star wps
CD R5 #2 Gimme Da Lute     win love this guy what a handle, very clever :chickendance:
CD R6 Granny's Kitten wps
CD R8 #3 Tenpin wps
CD R10 #7 Jack Milton
CD R11 #8 Dortmund

[Catalina]

I am so waffling this year = but I guess that is a good thing = seems to me to be WIDE OPEN

Ditto.  Mubtaahij, I think, if Dortmund doesn't do bumper derby.

[The Tin Man]

Well ... hit the trifecta and my future bet on Pharoah ... plus it was an all SoCal trifecta ... so it was a very nice day!

Sometimes being a SoCal homer pays off! 

[Catalina]

Congrats, TTM.  Makes for a nice day!

[The Tin Man]

Congrats, TTM.  Makes for a nice day!

Thanks Catalina!