2015 Derby Point Standings and Schedule

[Raven]

I hope they give Lord Nelson a shot in the SA derby. Didn't run that bad,
but distance a question

I second that!

[Man o Taz]

Well, they reported that the top 3 finishers were set for the Santa Anita Derby - but Lord Nelson was 4th so who knows where he is going.

Louisiana maybe...or Arkansas or Florida or Kentucky.

I doubt he goes to NY.

[curtis]

Well, they reported that the top 3 finishers were set for the Santa Anita Derby - but Lord Nelson was 4th so who knows where he is going.

Louisiana maybe...or Arkansas or Florida or Kentucky.

I doubt he goes to NY.

Whereever it is I would hope it is a prep for the Woody Stephens.  He both routes and sprints like a sprinter.

[Man o Taz]

Perhaps he is this year's Bayern.

They may use him that way - send him in one more Derby prep - if he does not secure the points - send him to the Woody Stephens.

Of course, Bayern was a freshman as a three year old and Lord Nelson was stakes raced as a two year old so who knows what the plan will be.

I would appreciate any chance to see him run on the East Coast.

[Man o Taz]

Right now the 20th place is at 10 points for the Kentucky Derby.

I would guess with about 10 major point races left that that total will not increase by more than 10 meaning that 20 points is enough to get into the gate.

[Senator L]

I think you'll need about 40. There are still 7 races left with
100 points to the winner and 40 to second.
If you had different winners in all that's 14 horses right there

[Man o Taz]

True, but in order to need 40 points to enter the gate you would likely need new horses without any points to win and place in those races. Otherwise, you are just adding points to horses that already have them.

I would suggest there may be one (Materiality?) or two of those, but most of the horses winning the points will be horses who already have 10 points or more.

For instance, examine the Rebel Stakes...

The Truth Or Else - 6
Madefromlucky
Tizwonderfulcreek
American Pharoah -10
Bold Conquest - 7
Paid Admission
Sakima

Here the odds of a non-point horse earning 50 points are slim. Could it happen? Sure, but the odds are slim. Heck, 20 points for such a horse is slim. I know Prospect Park just did it, but now he has 20 points and he'll likely get more which means that he being in the top 11 horses means that he is already accounted for and another new horse won't get it in. Examining past race history it is rare that a horse comes out of an allowance race like Constitution did and wins the top points. At least one horse will, but what are the odds of the new top points horses coming for the Arkansas Derby with the points horses from the Southwest and the Rebel - and a non points horse wins points in that race?

There are 40 point placement options available and 51 horses so far that have accumulated points. However, in order for a horse to achieve 40 points or more there are only 17 positions which provide that opportunity - the 3 50 point races left and the 7 100/40 point top races left. To raise the threshold to 40 points for entry you would have to have the top 11 horses in the points standings not get any more of those top spots because each one that does will take away a potential for a non-entry.

It will be interesting to see, but the first year 10 points got you in the gate. Last year, 14 points got you in the gate. This year I think 20 points gets you in the gate and it may even be less. To jump from 14 points to 40 points would be quite a leap.

This is one reason why I think the points total gambit is silly - because it allows a horse with barely any points into the gate whereas the graded stakes amount that was required I think was a lot more. There are horses with 20 points now that have graded stakes earnings of 80k.

If they did not run any more they could make the gate in the Derby.

Look at Commanding Curve last year who entered the Derby and finished second - his graded stakes earnings were $104,000 and 20 points. Big Bazinga was $92,000 and 14 points.

[Senator L]

Wow, I gotta pay more attention. Didn't know
so little points would get you in  :chickendance:
Why do the trainers complain about the points then?

[peeptoad]

I think the only way a horse with so few points (like 10) could make the gate is if a handful of horses win most or all of the preps (i.e. the same horses keep finishing in the top 2 or 3 spots: consistency). There will be fewer points to spread among the others. Or I suppose if a bunch of horses get injured or defect it would lower the minimum.
I don't think the points system directly weakens the race: if you really want an elite field then lower the max. # of starters. There will always be some chaff with 20 in the gate(s).

[Man o Taz]

Wow, I gotta pay more attention. Didn't know
so little points would get you in  :chickendance:
Why do the trainers complain about the points then?

Its something to complain about.

If it wasn't points, then it would be something else they would complain about.

Human nature I guess.

I also believe they feel if they have a hot two year old he or she should get an automatic Derby entry.

I like the point system. I just think they should set a minimum. You need a minimum of 25 points to get into the gate for the Kentucky Derby.

Then you make the race special - if its the top 20 points finishers conceivably you could have a horse with 1 point make the gate which is silly.

I think the only way a horse with so few points (like 10) could make the gate is if a handful of horses win most or all of the preps (i.e. the same horses keep finishing in the top 2 or 3 spots: consistency). There will be fewer points to spread among the others. Or I suppose if a bunch of horses get injured or defect it would lower the minimum.
I don't think the points system directly weakens the race: if you really want an elite field then lower the max. # of starters. There will always be some chaff with 20 in the gate(s).

Is that what happened in 2013?

Giant Finish made it in with 10 points.

The next year 20 points was the cut off.

I was mistaken - I had thought it was 14 - but Commanding Curve made it in with 20.

So - perhaps 20 will be the cut off this year.

It will be interesting to see. 

[Man o Taz]

2015 Kentucky Derby Points Standings

Rank   Horse   Trainer   Points   Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1    El Kabeir   John Terranova   75   $620,792
2   International Star   Mike Maker   71   $490,979
3   Dortmund   Bob Baffert   70   $630,000
4   Carpe Diem   Todd Pletcher   64   $870,000
5   American Pharoah   Bob Baffert   60   $810,000
6   Itsaknockout   Todd Pletcher   50   $240,560
7   Upstart   Rick Violette, Jr.   36   $615,680
8   War Story   Tom Amoss   24   $120,000
9   Far Right   Ron Moquette   22   $385,906
10   Madefromlucky   Todd Pletcher   20   $150,000
11   Ami's Flatter   Josie Carroll   20   $99,200
12   Prospect Park   Cliff Sise Jr.    20   $80,000
   +Tiz Shea D   Bill Mott   20   $80,000
13   Bold Conquest   Steve Asmussen   17   $162,176
14   Mr. Z   D. Wayne Lukas   14   $518,326
15   Frosted   Kiaran McLaughlin   13   $176,200
16   Classy Class   Kiaran McLaughlin   13   $85,000
17   Texas Red   Keith Desormeaux   12   $1,176,000
18   Keen Ice   Dale Romans   12   $106,520
19   The Truth or Else   Kenny McPeek   11   $173,500
20   Ocho Ocho Ocho   Jim Cassidy   10   $660,250
21   Daredevil   Todd Pletcher   10   $339,600
22   Far From Over   Todd Pletcher   10   $150,000
23   Metaboss   Jeff Bonde   10   $126,000
24   Lucky Player   Steve Asmussen   10   $97,231
25   Bolo   Carla Gaines   10   $94,980
   +Divining Rod   Arnaud Delacour   10   $75,000
26   Frammento   Nick Zito   10   $42,000
27   Firing Line   Simon Callaghan   8   $130,000
28   Conquest Typhoon   Mark Casse   6   $335,827
29   Lord Nelson   Bob Baffert   6   $228,571
30   Rock Shandy   Peter Miller   6   $56,000
31   St. Joe Bay   Peter Miller   6   $43,000
32   Toasting Master   Dale Romans   5   $21,000
33   Danzig Moon   Mark Casse   5   $17,500
34   Bayerd   Steve Asmussen   4   $246,000
35   Imperia   Kiaran McLaughlin   4   $171,804
36   Cross the Line   Jerry Hollendorfer   4   $100,000
37   Nasa   John Servis   4   $40,000
38   Bluegrass Singer   Marcus Vitali   2   $118,945
39   Hashtag Bourbon   Kellyn Gorder   2   $74,117
40   Hollywood Critic   Barbara Minshall   2   $35,528
41   General Bellamy   Bill Mott   2   $25,000
42   Tiznow R J   Steve Asmussen   2   $24,000
+   Pioneerof the West   Mark Casse   2   $14,250
43   Private Prospect   Michael Campbell   1   $138,000
44   Danny Boy   Dale Romans   1   $59,544
+   Saratoga Heater   Al Stall, Jr.   1   $50,000
45   Bench Warrant   John Sadler   1   $42,000
46   Juan and Bina   Gustavo Delgado   1   $40,330
47   Tough Customer   Wayne Catalano   1   $25,000
48   Tencendur   George Weaver   1   $24,500
49   Another Lemon Drop   Phil Bauer   1   $20,000
+   Ackeret   Kiaran McLaughlin   1   $13,000
50   Harmonic   Jerry Hollendorfer   1   $12,000
51   Hero Ten All   Jeff Mullins   1   $9,250
52   Flashaway   John C. Oxley   1   $8,999
+ - Not Triple Crown nominated

[peeptoad]

This weekend's preps:

Sunland Derby (gr. III)
Race 11 at Sunland Park on March 22, 2015
Grade III, 1 1/8 miles, $800,000, 3 yo

Post / Horse / Age / Wt / Jockey / Trainer

1 Firing Line 3 yo Colt 122 Gary L. Stevens/Simon Callaghan
2 Lord Nelson 3 yo Colt 122 Martin Garcia/Bob Baffert
3 Where's the Moon 3 yo Gelding 122 Luis Contreras/Henry Dominguez
4 Why Two 3 yo Colt 122 Victor Espinoza/Michael Machowsky
5 Malibu Mogul 3 yo Colt 122 Enrique Portillo Gomez/Henry Dominguez
6 Tiznow R J 3 yo Colt 122 Robby Albarado/Steven M. Asmussen
7 Pain and Misery 3 yo Gelding 122 Norberto Arroyo, Jr./Henry Dominguez
8 Dirt Monster 3 yo Colt 122 Ry Eikleberry/Justin R. Evans


Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral S. (gr. III)
Race 11 at Turfway Park on March 21, 2015
Grade III, 1 1/8 miles, $550,000, 3 yo

Post / Horse / Age / Wt / Jockey / Trainer

1 Royal Son 3 yo Colt 123 Rodney A. Prescott/Todd A. Pletcher
2 Big Family 3 yo Colt 123 Albin Jimenez/Gustavo Delgado
3 Watchyourownbobber 3 yo Colt 123 Rajiv Maragh/Michael J. Maker
4 Wireless Future 3 yo Colt 123 Florent Geroux/Thomas M. Amoss
5 Another Lemon Drop 3 yo Colt 123 Drayden Van Dyke/Philip A. Bauer
6 Imperia 3 yo Colt 123 Joel Rosario/Kiaran P. McLauglin
7 Magic of Believing 3 yo Colt 123 Shane Laviolette/Kenneth G. McPeek
8 Task Force Glory 3 yo Colt 123 Rafael Manuel Hernandez/Michael J. Maker
9 Conquest Typhoon 3 yo Colt 123 Mike E. Smith/Mark E. Casse
10 Firespike 3 yo Colt 123 Miguel Mena/Michael J. Maker
11 Metaboss 3 yo Colt 123 Alex O. Solis/Jeff Bonde
12 Dubai Sky 3 yo Colt 123 Jose Lezcano/William I. Mott

[peeptoad]

Firing Line will be the deserving favorite in the Sunland Derby... and probably a heavy favorite. The price horse to use underneath imo is Where's The Moon.... the mild upset winner of the local prep should get pace to run at again. If Firing Line runs back to his RB Lewis performance he will be very difficult to beat.

Imperia will scratch from the Spiral according to McLaughlin since he is not 100%. Regardless, the horse to beat is Royal Son from the rail. Pletcher might have another horse in the gate come May 2nd. He'll have to hold off Metaboss and Another Lemon Drop. Dubai Sky is the intriguing longshot for me.

[Man o Taz]

Too bad about Imperia. I was really hoping he would find himself in this race. I guess its Metaboss and Conquest Typhoon who I'll be cheering for to beat the favorite.

I am hoping Lord Nelson can take on Dortmund's role vs. Firing Line and I too like Where's The Moon and Tiznow RJ's Unbridled influence on his dam's side.

[Senator L]

I have Tiznow RJ in my Winstar stable so I hope he runs well.
I took Firespike in his last and gonna give him a muligan for that one
He's 20-1 ml and he looks like he's an in an outer  :chickendance: