November 28, 2014 G1 Clark Handicap

[Man o Taz]

Well, what could have been one of the strongest field in recent years with a ton of top three year olds entering has dwindled to maybe none.

Tonalist is at Payson Park.

California Chrome has been put on the shelf until next year.

Shared Belief is a question mark.

Nothing has been said about Bayern, but my thinking is of all the possible entrants, he is the top one. He has placed via disqualification over the Churchill track via disqualification, and his mentor - Game On Dude entered the race last year so his trainer is recently familiar with the race. And his owner seems a true sportsman, ready to tackle any challenge to see just how good this horse is. I have written before about Bayern's travels during this year. It is a campaign that harkens back to Cigar with the many cross country trips he has taken. Will he or won't he? If he does, he will certainly raise the angst and worry of his three year old challengers.

Mr. Martin, California Chrome's majority owner, seems firm that it would not matter how he did in a race against elders the media would tear him apart. He has conceded that Chrome is unlikely to win the award. Shared Belief, though being out half the year, has still raced 5 times. He might be fresh for another effort against elders. Mr. Hollendorfer is another trainer who is a true sportsman known for shipping his mounts across country to compete (See G1 winners Blind Luck and Sahara Sky).

Despite that, it looks like a nice field.

East Hall - Ohio and Indiana Derby and Sunshine Million Preview Stakes winner.
Constitution the promising Florida Derby winner is set to make his return.
Easter Gift last year's third place finisher and the recent victor in a Belmont allowance race.
Departing last had a second place finish in the Fayette Stakes.
Pick of the Litter - the winner of the Fayette enters.
Knights Nation a placed Dallas Stewart charge in a recent allowance race at Churchill

As impressive as this contingent looks...any of the top three year olds would be the favorite...since Constitution is the only G1 winner to enter.

[Man o Taz]

Looks like some impressive late entries:

Zivo
Hoppertunity
Tapiture
Prayer for Relief
Cary Street

I do not know why Tapiture is not pointing to the Cigar Mile off his impressive finish in the Dirt Mile.

[Man o Taz]

Then again maybe the field is coming up stronger in the Cigar Mile than the Clark Handicap.

Who as the most talented and the best form of expected entrants in each race?

Zivo won the 10 furlong G2 Suburban and placed 2nd in the 10 furlong Jockey Club, and 4th in the Woodward. However, his Breeders Cup form was 8th. Churchill Downs is known to be a peculiar track, but Drosselmeyer - another Belmont Park scion - did well at Churchill in the slop. Maybe Zivo will move up. Except for breaking his maiden he has not won at Saratoga in 4 efforts. He seems inconsistent and hard to predict.

Tapiture has been very consistent the entire year. Recently, he has a 2nd in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile, a second in the Pennsylvania Derby, a 1st in the West Virginia Derby, 1st in the Matt Winn Stakes, and then pre-his 15th finish in the Kentucky Derby he was 1st in the Southwest Stakes, 2nd in the Rebel Stakes and 4th in the Arkansas Derby. His knock is whether he has the talent to win.

Hoppertunity has a ton of talent, but he is coming back off a 6 month lay off. Before that he was 4th in the Risen Star and 1st in the Rebel Stakes and 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby behind the eventual Kentucky Derby winner. The California contingent seems loaded this year so if he returns to form he will be the class of the field. He did finish second in his 7 furlong return race. He closed willingly making it seem that the connections just wanted to get a race in him knowing if he stayed healthy there would be plenty of chances to compete ahead of him.

Constitution is the only other horse that I see of note. Not saying the others cannot win this, but Constitution has talent and has shown ability with his Florida Derby win. However, it seems an extraordinary ask for him to be entered in this race. He finished 4th in an 8.5 furlong optional claiming race with a stakes field so one would expect him to move up. We'll see.

[peeptoad]

The field for the Clark will draw in on Wednesday.

Likely starters:
Easter Gift
Constitution
Hoppertunity
Pick of the Litter
Knights Nation
Protonico

Prayer for Relief is possible.

[Man o Taz]

For me this is a strange race because the two favorites are likely to be horses who have never raced at Churchill Downs, both coming off six month layoffs.

I will be cheering for the three year olds, though I have liked Easter Gift since I first saw him race in the Kelso last year.

[peeptoad]

For me this is a strange race because the two favorites are likely to be horses who have never raced at Churchill Downs, both coming off six month layoffs.

I will be cheering for the three year olds, though I have liked Easter Gift since I first saw him race in the Kelso last year.

If by the favorites you mean Hopper and Constitution they both had prep races for this, so neither is coming directly off the layoff.
I like the 3yos as well. I hope Hopper wins.

[Man o Taz]

I know they had preps - but neither was too impressive in them...were they?

[peeptoad]

Hopper's was decent. He ran 2nd at a distance too short for him from off the pace at a speed favoring track.
I didn't see Constitution's race, but he was 4th and reportedly tired (per Pletcher).

[Man o Taz]

Sounds like Baffert has him in the right spot. Let's hope for a track that is playing fairly.

RACE 11 CLARK H. (GRADE I)  POST TIME - 5:35 PM

ENTRIES PLUS  PPS & SELECTIONS
Churchill Downs STAKES

Purse $500,000. For Three-Year-Olds And Upward. By subscription of $300 each or by supplementary nomination of $15,000 each by 12:00 noon (EST) Thursday, November 20, 2014. $2,500 to pass the entry box; $2,500 additional to start, with $500,000 added. After payment of 1% to all owners of horses finishing sixth through last, 62% of the remaining purse shall be paid to the owner of the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth and 3% to fifth. Weights to be announced Friday, November 21, 2014. The maximum numberof starters for the Clark Handicap will be limited to fourteen (14). If more than fourteen (14) entries pass the entry box preference will be given to highweights, with consideration to the scale of weights for age. Any horse excluded from running becausee of the aforementioned preference shall be refunded the entry fee and supplementary nomination fee if applicable. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. All supplementary nominations will be required to pay entry and starting fees if they participate. Trophy to winning owner. Closed Wednesday, November 12, 2014 with 20 nominations. One And One Eighth Miles.

PP   Horse   Virtual Stable   A/S   Med   Jockey   Wgt   Trainer

1   Hoppertunity (KY)      3/C   L   M Garcia           118   B Baffert
2   Prayer for Relief (KY)   6/H   L   R Santana, Jr.   118   D L Romans
3   Knights Nation (KY)      4/G   L   J R Leparoux   114   D Stewart
4   Departing (KY)              4/G   L   R Albarado   121   A M Stall, Jr.
5   Easter Gift (KY)      5/H   L   J Rosario           117   C C Brown
6   Protonico (KY)              3/C   L   J Bravo           117   T A Pletcher
7   Constitution (KY)      3/C   L   J Castellano   119   T A Pletcher
8   Looking Cool (KY)      4/C   L   C Landeros   112   M Sancal
9   Pick of the Litter (KY)   4/C   L   C J Lanerie   121   D L Romans

Owners: 1 - Mike Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman ; 2 - Zayat Stables, LLC (Ahmed Zayat) ; 3 - Brad Ray ; 4 - Claiborne Farm (Seth W. Hancock) and Adele B. Dilschneider ; 5 - Robert V. LaPenta ; 6 - Sumaya U. S. Stables (Oussama Aboughazale) ; 7 - WinStar Farm LLC and Twin Creeks Racing Stables, LLC ; 8 - Fedai Kahraman ; 9 - Crossed Sabres Farm (Carolyn Vogel)

Breeders: 1 - Betz/D.J. Stable/Kidder/J. Betz/Robenalt; 2 - G. R. Aschinger; 3 - John R. Penn; 4 - Claiborne Farm & Adele B. Dilschneider; 5 - Ward Williford; 6 - International Equities Holding, Inc.; 7 - Grapestock LLC & Fox Hill Farms; 8 - Jim Tafel, LLC; 9 - Gabriel Duignan, Crosshaven Bloodstock &Vision Thoroughbreds

[Man o Taz]

The three year olds are on a role...1,2,3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgqqNAmEQeo

Congrats to the winner. Next year's class of four year olds looks tough.