2015 Dubai World Cup: Bayern, Toast of New York, Shared Belief Round II?

[Man o Taz]

Well, we know Shared Belief according to his trainer enjoys synthetic tracks more than dirt.

And we know that Kaleem Shah would love to race Bayern at Meydan...

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/breeders/2014/11/03/jim-rome-wants-shared-belief-california-chrome-rematch/18420755/

Rome said he's expecting a "big 2015," and already hearing speculation his horse should contest the $10 million Dubai World Cup on March 28 — which Bayern owner Kaleem Shaw also wants to enter. (Jim, if looking for something sooner, there's always the $500,000 Clark Handicap later this month at Churchill Downs.)

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/breeders-cup/bayern-exits-classic-victory-in-good-order-dubai-world-cup-could-be-next-goal/

Trainer Bob Baffert initially expressed doubt about sending the colt next March to the Dubai World Cup, which will be run on the new dirt surface at Meydan. Baffert suffered a heart attack while in Dubai for the World Cup two years ago. But any hesitancy on the part of the trainer might be trumped by the owner. Kaleem Shah said Bayern might be considered for the World Cup. Baffert countered, "I'll take my cardiologist with me. He's ready. He wants to go." And good news for fans and a possible incentive for his reluctant trainer: Shah said of Bayern, "As long as he's healthy, he'll run at 4, 5 and 6." Toast of New York also is a candidate for the $10 million World Cup.
Read more: http://www.upi.com/Sports_News/2014/11/03/UPI-horse-racing-roundup/3521414990908/#ixzz3IDK0nccm

http://www.thenational.ae/sport/horse-racing/toast-of-new-york-set-for-dubai-world-cup-push-after-breeders-cup-charge-behind-bayern

Toast Of New York looks set to race next in the Dubai World Cup in March after pushing Bayern to within a nose in an epic Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita late Saturday night.

Would Team California Chrome make it a four-horse rematch?

California Chrome did break his maiden and the King Glorious Stakes at Hollywood Park and win the Graduation Stakes at 2 at Del Mar - so he seems to handle the synthetic surface OK.

So, maybe the four of them will be headed to Dubai for Round II?

[Man o Taz]

According to a post at Horse Racing Nation, Tonalist may be headed to Dubai in 2015 as well making it 4 of the top 5 BC Classic finishers.

[curtis]

Meydan is switching to dirt so the synthetic form is irrelevant.

[The Tin Man]

Re: California Chrome

One Owner For Sure Does NOT want to run in Dubai or Japan ...

The other owner is all about the money ...

I'm hoping the owner ruled by his heart wins out.

[Man o Taz]

Meydan is switching to dirt so the synthetic form is irrelevant.

Curtis:

Thanks for the heads up. Did not know that. Have you heard why?

I thought they enjoyed attracting some of the top turf horses for the race...

Do they really want Americans to compete that badly?

Re: California Chrome

One Owner For Sure Does NOT want to run in Dubai or Japan ...

The other owner is all about the money ...

I'm hoping the owner ruled by his heart wins out.

Well, winning the race would make California Chrome the top North American money winner of all-time which was one feather in Curlin's cap on his way to becoming a two-time Horse of the Year.

It also might have the same impact that Animal Kingdom's victory had in terms of breeding...once Animal Kingdom won in Dubai his breeding prospects increased so that he would stand not only in Australia, but also the US.

My understanding is that right now the Japanese have shown the most interest in California Chrome - perhaps if he were to win is Meydan there would be greater interest which could mean shuttling back and forth. We know if he goes to Japan the only way to see him would be to visit there.

My concern is always for the horse - which race gives him the best opportunity to win.

I think he's a true 10 furlong horse - whereas Bayern - like Game On Dude and Medaglia D'Oro are 9 furlong horses that won 10 furlong races. Thus, I think he'd be very competitive in Meydan.

Now, people dismissed Curlin's competition when he returned from Meydan and suggested that he had lost a step...but if you look at his BSFs - they were actually among the highest of his career which seems to argue against the proposition.

I think a good program for California Chrome would be:

G2 Hal's Hope $100,000
G1 Donn Handicap $500,000
G1 Dubai World Cup $10,000,000
G1 Whitney $1,500,000
G1 Pacific Classic $1,000,000
G1 Awesome Again $300,000
G1 Breeders Cup Classic $5,000,000

This would give CC two prep races and allow him to begin his four year old HOTY campaign BEFORE he heads to Dubai. If for some reason he does not win in Dubai he would still have 4 G1 races on his schedule and winning 3 out of 4 would likely assure him HOTY and 2 out of 4 would likely make him a top contender. If he won the Dubai World Cup he would be in a much stronger position, of course.

However, these comments from California Chrome's majority owner Perry Martin might put a wrench in those plans...

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/breeders/2014/11/03/main-sequence-tops-bayern-final-nrta-thoroughbred-poll/18427533/
"I don't see Chrome running for less than $1 million." Though no definite schedule has been mapped out, Martin said the Dubai World Cup (UAE-I), the world's richest race at $10 million March 28 at Meydan Racecourse, "is in play.""We want to try him on the grass and that race will probably be the Arlington Million (gr. IT)," he added."

Thus, Gulfstream Park would need to increase the Donn Handicap to get him there - doubling their present $500,000 purse. The reality is that we see that California Chrome needed two tune up races to be sharp for the BC Classic. Its going to be impossible to get that purse for the G2 Hal's Hope and the Donn...

And the Arlington Million would throw a wrench into the idea of him running in the $1.5 Million Whitney Handicap and the $1 Million Pacific Classic - so do the connections want to risk his missing out on $2.5 million to try turf?  Of course, they could go the Game On Dude route and hit the $1,000,00 Charles Town Classic which might work well for California Chrome, but then you are still leaving the second biggest purse of $1.5 million for the Whitney Handicap off the table.

Also, that would leave the $1,000,000 G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as the only prep for the BC Classic - and we have seen that Chrome needs prep races to stay sharp.

I think the change to dirt might dissuade Shared Belief's connections from making the trip.

[The Tin Man]

If the owner who is all about money gets his wish, you will too Taz ...

I, personally, hope the "heart" guy wins out ... I want to see Chrome run in the U.S. at the top of his game next year ... as opposed to seeing him run in Dubai or Japan and then end up being a shell of his former self for the rest of his final year ... but that's just me (and one of the owners). 

[Man o Taz]

Well, I think he can run in Dubai and still run well in the US. I think that is a credit to those who raised him. I believe part of his durability is based upon his demeanor. He is a very laid back and trustuing horse. If they take him to Dubai he has the chance to do well.

For me I have two competing interests...the horse and the horse's legacy and my own interest in seeing him in as many races as possible.

For the horse's legacy, running in the Dubai World Cup could be very important. The opportunity to compete on dirt against the best older horses from around the world would be an excellent way to have him rated as the top thoroughbred in the world which I have no doubt that he would be upon winning the Dubai World Cup. In addition, he could increase the interests of international breeders like Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum and Darley. This could result in his standing at least part of the year in the US. However, if he just races in the US, the Japanese may be the only group who truly values him standing as a stallion in which case we'll lose him forever if he goes to Japan. Also, with the death of Jazil - Sheikh Hamdan and Shadwell Farm may want to secure a stallion with Triple Crown success. Heck, they might take Tonlaist and Chrome like Darley took Street Sense and Hard Spun.

So for the short term and the long term I think the Dubai may be in his best interests. Of course, I understand your perspective too. Your feeling is the best way to interest breeders domestically is to perform at your best domestically. This is true. However, there are few breeding interests domestically that would be willing to outbid the Japanese at this point. Darley has two sons in the A.P. Indy sire line - Bernardini and Girolamo. They do not have any sons in the Pulpit line. So, this might be an interesting opportunity for them. And of course, you worry about the horse too - and his being tired from a trip to Dubai like Royal Delta was the second time she came back from Dubai. This is a worry for me too, but I think with today's technologies its not as bad as it once was. I think that Chrome can travel much better than other horses and   

[The Tin Man]

Then you'll do best if the "money guy" makes the call Taz ...

I'm rooting for the "heart guy", as I'd like to see him run well for ALL of next year and not be toast after a Dubai bid ... then I'd like to see him stud here ... these things will only happen if the "heart guy" wins out.

[Man o Taz]

Well, as I have noted above there are some inherent conflicts between what the "money guy" wants to do. If he runs in the Arlington Million he gives up on the Pacific Classic and the Whitney. He also is unlikely to get any prep races prior to Dubai at $1,000,000 price tag unless he negotiates with Sheikh Mohammed for same which could see him racing like Curin twice in Dubai. And the only prep after the Arlington Million would end up being the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

The "money guy" campaign would look like this:

Late February prep in Dubai
Late March Dubai World Cup 2015
Arlington Million
Jockey Club Gold Cup
Breeders Cup Classic 

If he really wanted to run in as many million dollar races as possible he would leave the Arlington Million out. Also, my campaign sees him running in 5 million dollar races if you sub the JCGC for the Awesome Again - while his sees him running in 5 as well - but if he negotiated with Gulfstream they might increase the Donn to a million dollar race to get Chrome and that would insure that Chrome entered the race in top form with two preps rather than 1.

My thoughts are - as much as I enjoyed seeing Curlin run in the Man o' War his sire was already known for throwing off turf horses so demonstrating an ability to run on turf was no so important to Curlin - rather I believe his connections - Mr. Jackson and Ms. Banke were sporting folks looking to possibly attempt a run at the Arc de Triomphe if he had blown two prior Breeders Cup Turf winners away - Better Talk Now and Red Rocks - the fact that he finished second ended that dream. For my thinking - Curlin never lost twice on a surface...he ran at Belmont and lost in the Belmont Stakes and came back and won the Jockey Club in back to back years. He lost in the Haskell and came back and won the Breeders Cup at Monmouth. He lost in the Kentucky Derby and came back and won the Stephen Foster the following year. I think if he had entered the Arc he would have had a good shot at winning because he was such a smart horse he just needed experience over the surface to prepare. Chrome may be that type too.

Likewise for California Chrome. AP Indy has thrown off turf runners as has Pulpit. So, whether or not California Chrome can demonstrate a sharp turn of foot on turf is only important for the horse's legacy and not for his breeding interests - unless of course - the Japanese have suggested that they would like to see him run on turf.

I think it also remains to be seen if nasal strips will be allowed in Dubai.

I do not believe they are currently used, but am unaware if they have a prohibition.

[The Tin Man]

Looks like you'll get your wish Taz ... the money guy wins again ...

Per DRF, he's going to run in The Dubai World Cup ...

Really unfortunate ... unless he's a rarity, he'll never be the same after that race ...

I was hoping to see him go toe to toe with Bayern and Shared Belief several times next year while in peak form ... sucks!

I suspect he'll end up at stud in either Japan or Dubai also, since the money guy always seems to win ...

Pretty damn disappointed.

[The Tin Man]

Cali Chrome is also likely to run at Del Mar, on Turf, on November 29th per Art and DRF.(Grade 1, Hollywood Derby I think)

I'm totally cool with that, as I know they've been wanting to do that for a very long time. In fact, they've often said they think he'll be even better on Turf than he is in dirt ...

I guess we'll soon have a pretty good idea. 

[Man o Taz]

Looks like you'll get your wish Taz ... the money guy wins again ...

Per DRF, he's going to run in The Dubai World Cup ...

Really unfortunate ... unless he's a rarity, he'll never be the same after that race ...

I was hoping to see him go toe to toe with Bayern and Shared Belief several times next year while in peak form ... sucks!

I suspect he'll end up at stud in either Japan or Dubai also, since the money guy always seems to win ...

Pretty damn disappointed.

Darley doesn't really stand stallions in Dubai. This is why I want Darley involved. They will ship him to Australia and/or Japan BUT ALSO LEXINGTON KENTUCKY. This is the only way that fans would ever get to see him. If he goes to Japan, the only way to see him is to visit Shadai Stallion Station which I think is the group that has been interested in him and while I'd love to go to Japan to see their stallion operations, I'd rather Chrome stay in the US at least part time.

And Shared Belief and Bayern may be headed to Dubai as well. So that would keep them each on even terms. I agree with you that it takes a special horse to venture to Dubai and back without suffering a loss in form, but I think Chrome is a special horse. I think his durability will enable him to excel there and here afterwards. I just hope I get to see him before he heads to Dubai. He needs two prep races to be sharp so hopefully I can see at least one of them.

Cali Chrome is also likely to run at Del Mar, on Turf, on November 29th per Art and DRF.(Grade 1, Hollywood Derby I think)

I'm totally cool with that, as I know they've been wanting to do that for a very long time. In fact, they've often said they think he'll be even better on Turf than he is in dirt ...

I guess we'll soon have a pretty good idea. 

Well, hopefully this will be an excellent performance on turf and put to rest his ever running on grass again so they can campaign him on dirt all next year.

This is a much better idea than the Arlington Million.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/88697/california-chrome-to-contest-hollywood-derby

I want some pictures.