I understand the need for a tiebreaker.
I just do not see it with a 9 furlong restricted turf race and a 7 furlong restricted three year old sprint how anything will be settled.
The races to break the tie are the Cigar Mile or the Clark Handicap.
The fact that none of the connections are pointing to these races is fine - but tells me - none are interested in really breaking the tie. Sure some of them have suggested that these races are tiebreakers, but after running as three year old males against elders - besting them...I would think a route allowance race on dirt against graded stakes horses would be more impressive to me than these choices. Just my opinion.
I am a big fan of the horses - I hope they do well - but if I were a voter - a result in any of these races would not answer any the following questions:
1. Can Bayern best the top three year olds twice in a route race without an ideal trip - everything going his way?
2. Can California Chrome win an open company race? A race against top three year old dirt horses post-Belmont?
3. Can Shared Belief win a dirt route race against top dirt horses?
4. Can Tonalist beat the best of the west when they are rested?
I concur on the sticking it to Churchill Downs point...
And I would add two other top older horse performances...Moreno's Whitney win...and Lea's Donn Handicap win...those were impressive races. I'm an Itsmyluckdayfan...but Moreno's Whitney I think was more impressive with the field than Istmyluckday's Woodward win.
If Chrome loses - its on turf - against turf horses - it changes few minds. If you liked Chrome for three year old/HOTY with the 3 losses - you'll like him with the 4. If you thought he should be HOTY with his current resume - a win will bolster it more but your mind will be unchanged. If you thought Chrome was passed his prime a win will do little since you'll say he couldn't do it against elders or dirt three year olds.
If Bayern loses - it really hurts him - if he wins - he's already won at 7 furlongs in the Woody Stephens - and arguably that field was superior to the field he'll face in terms of sprinters - in the Malibu. If Bayern wins it says he's a better sprinter. Did anyone think Shared Belief was a champion sprinter?
I agree that with all Bayern has been through - it makes more sense to keep him at home - but then why run him at all? If he came out of the race strong and good - then send him to NY...to get another open company win in the G1 Cigar Mile. Then he can be sent to the farm for some R&R rather than being kept in training throughout December.
So really I do see the race potentially having 1 impact on Bayern...negative...if he wins its expected against a top three year old who is not a sprinter...and whose turn of foot on dirt is not as sharp as it is on synthetic. And when it comes down to it - because the G2 Woody Stephens has a better field - I would dismiss the effort against Shared Belief.
If Shared Belief wins - it does nothing for his resume either for HOTY - though I think a win against Bayern would show he could sprint - but he's a gelding so what does it matter?
STEVE HASKIN: The case for Bayernhttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2014/11/11/bayern-s-feats-shouldn-t-be-overlooked.aspxhttp://espn.go.com/horse-racing/blog/_/name/ehalt_bob/id/11891469/will-grass-greener-california-chromePlan B, in case California Chrome fizzles in his turf work, would be to run in the Native Diver, also on Nov. 29. It's on the dirt, but is only a Grade 3 stakes and would lack the charisma that could come from a Grade 1 win on a new surface. Naming California Chrome Horse of the Year off a final push from a Grade 3 stakes seems a stretch.
