2014 Horse Of The Year Candidates

[Man o Taz]

How can each horse win?

Horse (Next Race, distance)
Analysis
Last result, if not already posted above.

1. Palace Malice (retired)

Probably can't. Chrome would have to fail to win another race and lose champion three year old to another horse who did not win the BC Classic. I'm thinking Shared Belief wins the Awesome Again, but loses in the BC Classic...and none of the other contenders finish as noted below. Not completely ruling him out yet. After this weekend I think he still has an outside chance.

2. California Chrome

Chrome is still the most accomplished three year old. He is still the top three year old no matter what the "what have you done for me lately NTRA polls say". I still feel this way. I know Shared Belief has two victories against older horses, but Shared Belief has yet to face a top three year old this year and they are the horses sweeping the older horse races on the main track.

3. Wise Dan (G1 Shadwell Turf Mile)

Dan has potentially two more G1s on his schedule including the Breeders Cup. If he wins out, and the others falter, there is always a chance for the three peat. A win in the G1 Clark Handicap which could give him 5 G1 wins in 2014 would be a tough case to argue against since the best other horses can do is likely 4 G1 wins and thats only if California Chrome would win the BC Classic which would eliminate Dan from contention. I STILL think as well as dirt horses are doing this year, Dan will have to win on dirt to win HOTY this year unless the others fall apart in the BC Classic and/or their preps.

4. Shared Belief - tied

Would winning the BC Classic be enough to win HOTY? He needs to win his last two races against open company. He is also now not the only three year old to best elder in a route race with Tonalist joining the field. This demonstrates that wins against three year olds may mean more to the voters than wins against older horses which bodes well for California Chrome.

G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs.

4. Tonalist - tied

If Tonalist were to win out he would have 3 G1 wins including two classics - and these would be at the classic distance or greater. That's a strong resume even if Shared Belief were to win another G1 against older horses. It would give Tonalist two victories over California Chrome and two victories over older horses. Tonalist would likely take three year old honors as well en route to Horse of the Year. He's the only three year old still alive who raced in the JCGC.

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs.

5. Bayern - tied (BC Classic, 10 furlongs) 

Bayern would need some help. He would need to win the Classic AND the G1 Cigar Mile in order to win HOTY or top three year old.

9. Lea - tied (??)

This is another difficult one. Something more than the winning of a prep race and the BC Classic would be necessary. The G1 Cigar Mile or G1 Clark Handicap is an option. However, it looks unlikely that he will be making the BC Classic at this point which he would need.

10. Moreno - tied (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs)

He likewise needs help - and the same scenario that Lea faces. Itsmyluckyday has at least run in and won a number of other races.

10. VE Day tied (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup)

He is new on the scene, but he did win the Travers Stakes. His winning out would make a strong case for Horse of the Year, and at least champion three year old.

10. Wicked Strong (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup)

[Man o Taz]

How can each horse win?

Horse (Next Race, distance)
Analysis
Last result, if not already posted above.

1. Palace Malice (retired)

Probably can't. Chrome would have to fail to win another race and lose champion three year old to another horse who did not win the BC Classic. I'm thinking Shared Belief wins the Awesome Again, but loses in the BC Classic...and none of the other contenders finish as noted below. Not completely ruling him out yet. After this weekend I think he still has an outside chance.

2. California Chrome

I actually wonder if California Chrome might be run after the G1 Breeders Cup Classic. He rested up well for the Fall racing season - and to do so for just two races when he may be reaching his peak form may be a waste of his talent. Then again, if he is likely to run as a 4 year old, why not rest up. I am eager to see him go against Bayern again. They are 1-1 right now. If he did run in the fall, a return to the site of his greatest victory - Churchill Downs might be just the ticket in the G1 Clark, rather than something like the Cigar Mile. However, both races have appeal to show versatility...a win at the 8 furlong distance could prove that he can go a mile and 10 furlongs securing victories (and I'd get to see him again) like Palace Malice. Then again, others are so unimpressed with his breeding that an 8 furlong win might not spike the interest. Claiborne Farm was proud of the fact that Pulpit was the grand sire of all the Triple Crown race winners this year.

3. Wise Dan (G1 Shadwell Turf Mile)

Mr. Lopresti mentioned the G1 Clark as a potential for Dan - so it seems we may be thinking along the same lines. That could be some race if California Chrome, Wise Dan, Bayern, and even Shared Belief were to show up in it. I know this is a lot of dreaming, but Shared Belief has had a fairly light schedule and won with relative ease in his races despite the gamesmanship displayed in his last effort. What a coup for Churchill, if it were to happen.

G1 Shadwell Turf Mile

4. Shared Belief - tied

No change.

4. Tonalist - tied

No change.

6. Bayern - tied (BC Classic, 10 furlongs) 

I left out the G1 Clark Handicap as a possibility for Bayern. He has two wins at 8 furlongs so this makes sense as a possible choice. And he did run well in the Derby Trial over the surface so this might be a better fit than the Cigar Mile distance and track wise.

7. Main Sequence

His impressive win in the G1 Joe Hirsch has put him in the picture as a possible HOTY. Its an outside chance because if Wise Dan should win out his name recognition might eclipse that of Main Sequence, but his efforts are remarkable.

G1 Joe Hirsch, 12 furlongs
G1 Sword Dancer, 12 furlongs
G1 United Nations,  11 furlongs

I do not know if there are any more G1 turf races carded after the Breeders Cup. He would likely need one more win in addition to his Breeders Cup win to best Wise Dan should he win out.

It also seems the G1 Canadian International may be on his schedule as well.

I hope he decides to run in the Breeders Cup Turf to face some of the horses that were besting him across the pond.

[Man o Taz]

Steve Haskin had an interesting column on this subject:

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2014/10/07/beware-the-wise-dan-curse.aspx

[Man o Taz]

How can each horse win?

Horse (Next Race, distance)
Analysis
Last result, if not already posted above.

1. Palace Malice (retired)

The more I think about it the more I think that Palace Malice has little to no chance of winning Horse of the Year. Wise Dan's latest injury put that in more perspective.

2. California Chrome

He has to win the Classic or another G1 race like the Clark Handicap.

3. Wise Dan

Its a long shot now. Steve Haskin's suggestion that mountains must be moved to align the stars for a Wise Dan HOTY three-peat would have to work overtime.

I still think he has an outside chance. I had hoped he might even make it to the Clark, but that seems like too big an ask.

If Zivo Moreno, Fed Biz, or the Last Gunfighter were to win rather than one of those on this list were to win the BC Classic, the case could be made that their resume was inadequate to get HOTY.

There are two other horses who have 3 G1 wins on the list like Wise Dan. California Chrome and Main Sequence. If neither horse distinguishes himself and the others do not win - they will remain tied in G1s. The question would then be

4. Shared Belief - tied

No change. Some may give Shared Belief the edge (he is at the top of the NTRA rankings after all. However, I believe he is tied with Tonalist at this point because the Belmont Stakes is a Classic...and given the choice between the Pacific Classic and the Belmont Stakes I would think most voters would prefer to win the Belmont Stakes. The tiebreaker is still the BC Classic. While they are tied, I do think the fact that Tonalist has won three races on one track raises a big question mark. Shared Belief has won his races this year on 4 different tracks (2 dirt/2 synthetic).

4. Tonalist - tied

No change.

4. Bayern - tied

No change.

Bayern only has one G1 win, but he has defeated the Kentucky Derby winner soundly in a G2 race. He has traveled around the country and shown himself to be probably the most durable three year old. Certainly California Chrome deserves high marks for his efforts since he sports a better record in top races, but Bayern has been strong as well.

7. Main Sequence

With Wise Dan likely out of the picture for the remainder of the year, he has a strong shot at winning the turf male eclipse award if he can win the Breeders Cup Turf.

We'll see how his taking on his peers from Europe goes in the US.

[Man o Taz]

Everything I read its all about the three year olds for Horse of the Year.

Bayern
California Chrome
Shared Belief
Tonalist

Who's it going to be?

I am skeptical of Bayern because his winning it would with just two G1 races under his belt be anti-climactic in my book, especially given that Shared Belief has 2 G1 wins over elders, California Chrome has 2 Classic wins with the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and a Santa Anita Derby as well, and Tonalist has a G1 win against elders and another in a Classic. This is why I have suggested if he wants HOTY he really should run in and win another race whether the Clark Handicap or the Cigar Mile.

But I know the thinking - how many Classic winners have run in either race the year they won the Classic? 0

[Man o Taz]

How can each of Taz's Top 10 win HOTY?

Horse
Analysis
Last result, if not already posted above.

1. Palace Malice (retired)

Probably can't. Chrome would have to fail to win another race and lose champion three year old to another horse who did not win the BC Classic. I'm thinking Shared Belief loses in the BC Classic...and none of the other contenders finish as noted below. Not completely ruling him out yet. And Mr. Watchmaker indicates that he may race again. This year? We'll see - probably not but the Paulick Report notes that Mr. Campbell is 80% certain he'll race again which is great for racing.

2. California Chrome (G1 Breeders Cup Classic, 10 furlongs)

Chrome is still the most accomplished three year old. He is still the top three year old no matter what the "what have you done for me lately NTRA polls say". He has won two Classics. I love Shared Belief, but his impressive efforts come against a questionable set of West Coast elders.

3. Wise Dan (G1 Shadwell Turf Mile)

Dan has potentially no more G1s on his schedule after his ankle injury sidelines him for the Breeders Cup. If he heals impressively and can make the Clark Handicap which I see as highly unlikely I think he gets a shot at it. Otherwise, its likely going to a three year old.

4. Shared Belief (G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs)

Would winning the BC Classic be enough to win HOTY? Yes.

G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs.

4. Tonalist - tied

He is right in the mix after his second win at a Classic distance or more. Can he win outside of Belmont Park?

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs.

4. Bayern - tied (BC Classic, 10 furlongs) 

7. Moreno - tied

He likewise needs help - and the same scenario that Lea faces. Itsmyluckyday has at least run in and won a number of other races. Moreno would need to win more than just the BC Classic. He would have to also enter and win the G1 Cigar Mile or the G1 Clark Handicap because he just has not won enough this year.

8. VE Day tied

He too would have to win more than just the G1 BC Classic. See Moreno. A strong finish could still make him a contender.

5th G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs.

Its more like a top 8 now.

[Man o Taz]

How can each of Taz's Top 10 win HOTY?

Horse
Analysis
Last result, if not already posted above.

1. Main Sequence

This horse has done it all. He has won coast to coast at varying distances in excess of the Classic distance here on turf.

I think with this win against top European horses he has won the top grass Eclipse.

Is this enough for HOTY? I do not know. It is a shame there is not one more top turf race that he could enter.

I wonder if Mr. Motion might try him in the G1 Clark Handicap on dirt?

G1 BC Turf, 12 furlongs

2. California Chrome (G1 Breeders Cup Classic, 10 furlongs)

Chrome is still the most accomplished three year old male. He is still the top three year old no matter what the "what have you done for me lately NTRA polls say". He has won two Classics.

I think the reward is still up for grabs. He still possesses more G1 wins against three year olds than any three year old horse. He still has more stakes wins this year than any 3 year old horse.

I think he should run in the Clark Handicap. Selfishly, I would prefer the Cigar Mile but having just completed a book on Churchill Downs - the Clark is more prestigious and a route race.

Despite this, Chrome needs a win against elders...to make his case definitive against the other 3 top three year olds.

3rd G1 BC Classic, 10 furlongs.

3. Shared Belief (G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs) tied

Well, he suffered his first loss...and he certainly had excuses.

He should be pointed to the G1 ClarK Handicap UNLESS his connections plan to campaign him in Florida at Gulfstream Park in the Hal's Hope AND Donn Handicap.

4th G1 BC Classic, 10 furlongs.

3. Tonalist - tied

He is right in the mix after his second win at a Classic distance or more. Can he win outside of Belmont Park?

Not in California. He should be pointed to the Clark Handicap or the Cigar Mile due to his late blooming season.

5th G1 BC Classic, 10 furlongs

3. Bayern - tied (BC Classic, 10 furlongs) 

Well, he won the Classic in impressive fashion on a speed favoring track. Even I questioned his distance pedigree earlier in the year because I did not think he had the foundation at that point - the bottom to go 9.5 furlongs. Now he does and he has shown that he can win at 10 furlongs - though 9 furlongs is still his best distance.

Any subsequent race he runs in without a rabbit, his competition is crazy.

His fractions were impressive because he ran faster here than he did at Saratoga and earned a different result...

:23.12, :46.44, 1:10.22,  1:34.16, and a final of 1:59.88 for: 23.12/23.32/24.18/25.72 which is a really slow last 1/4.

Still, the final time was pretty quick...

That said, is he HOTY? In my opinion - no. He has campaign across the country and won 2 top G1 races...defeated the Kentucky Derby winner twice...and won the BC Classic against top elders and also won a G2 at 7 furlongs. However, I just believe the outcome in some of the later races could have an impact on the voting...

If Tonalist or California Chrome or Shared Belief were to win the G1 Clark Handicap - I believe that they would be more deserving of HOTY honors than Bayern despite his Classic win.

G1 BC Classic, 10 furlongs.

6. Wise Dan (G1 Shadwell Turf Mile)

Dan has potentially no more G1s on his schedule after his ankle injury sidelines him for the Breeders Cup. If he heals impressively and can make the Clark Handicap which I see as highly unlikely I think he gets a shot at it. Otherwise, its likely going to a three year old.

7. Untapable

I love Untapable. She is certainly worthy of consideration. However, I think there has been much better competition in the three year old ranks - and while she deserves high marks for stepping up in class - her 5th place finish hurts her.

Now, if she were to take on the males and win the G1 Cigar Mile or G1 Clark Handicap - that would certainly bolster her resume significantly.

Zenyatta took on males and barely lost - Untapable finished 5th. If she had finished a close second then she might deserve more consideration. For a filly though, I do consider her campaign superior to Palace Malice at this point.

G1 BC Distaff, 9 furlongs
G1 Cotillion, 8.5 furlongs
5th G1 Haskell Stakes, 9 furlongs
G1 Mother Goose, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Kentucky Oaks, 9 furlongs
G2 Fairground Oaks, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Rachel Alexandra, 8.5 furlongs

8. Palace Malice (retired?)

Probably can't. Chrome would have to fail to win another race and lose champion three year old to another horse who did not win the BC Classic. I'm thinking Shared Belief loses in the BC Classic...and none of the other contenders finish as noted below. Not completely ruling him out yet. And Mr. Watchmaker indicates that he may race again. This year? We'll see - probably not but the Paulick Report notes that Mr. Campbell is 80% certain he'll race again which is great for racing.

[Man o Taz]

Horse of the Year Is A Mess
http://www.timesunion.com/sports/article/Horse-of-the-Year-is-a-mess-5865441.php

This from July
http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/11186398/who-horse-year

Really only three of the horses listed here are still in consideration...at that point Main Sequence had just won the UN...but no one could foresee his dominance. Tonalist had only won the Belmont Stakes.

Horse of the Year Talk with a nod to Untapable
http://www.sunherald.com/2014/11/04/5894357/up-the-backstretch-2014-horse.html

HOTY Cloudy
http://www.saratogian.com/sports/20141103/scott-column-breeders-cup-clouds-horse-of-the-year-picture

I disagree with the statement that Tonalist winning would have created confusion. He would have had 3 G1 wins and two G1s against elders as a three year old and would have been a worthy three year old champion and HOTY UNLESS California Chrome happened to finish well which he did.

[Man o Taz]

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/horse-of-the-year-it-aint-over-till-its-over/
Only three of the last 15 winners of Horse of the Year won as few as two Grade 1 events: Ghostzapper in 2004; Tiznow in 2000; and Charismatic in 1999.

Interestingly, Pollack thinks the Malibu for three year olds at 7 furlongs contested on December 27th.

However, I would think the better test for Bayern if he did not want to face the quirky surface at Churchill Downs in the G1 Clark Handicap, would be to try the G1 Cigar Mile.

Heck, Goldencents may even be pointing to this race.

I know people will say, "Why should a mile race decide Horse of the Year", but Bayern would then have won two G1 races against older horses and a G1 at 8, 9, and 10 furlongs.

It just depends how much he wants the HOTY honors.

As it looks now, the rest of the three year olds may be put on the shelf.

Of course, Bayern has campaigned long and hard having not begun his racing until this year, and then racing twice at Santa Anita before being shipped all over the country to 7 other tracks (Oaklawn, Churchill Downs, Pimlico, Belmont Park, Monmouth Park, Saratoga, and Philadelphia Park). With all of this travel it would be a shame for this horse after all this travel and success not to get some recognition. I do not think any other top three year old has raced 10 times. This horse is a warrior and as much as I am a California Chrome fan I think the three year olds still in training with Bayern and Chrome at the top of the list this year deserve a lot of credit for the tough campaigns that they have endured.

[peeptoad]

I think Main Sequence should get it, but that's a pipe dream living in this country. Undefeated this year- 4 G1 wins.

[Man o Taz]

Right and he may still run in the Japan Cup or the Hong Kong Vase.

If he were to win either of those races I think the award should go to him.

However, Ray Pollack has a good point - its been 5 years since a dirt horse has won HOTY - so if it goes to Main Sequence while I think it would be great to break the preference in favor of dirt horses what impact would that have on our breeding industry, especially in the face of such a competitive bunch of three year olds this year?

[peeptoad]

However, Ray Pollack has a good point - its been 5 years since a dirt horse has won HOTY -

Well, I guess that is a point to consider for the voters. There are a number of dirt horses to consider, though they all have flaws in their records. Untapable might be the closest to flawless for dirt horses, but Bayern and Chrome are close. Chrome has a better overall record imo, but never beat older and Bayern has beaten him twice now.
Main Sequence
Bayern
Chrome
Untapable
...one of those 4 should win HOY I would think.

In other divisions I really hope Lady Eli wins the 2yo filly award.

[Man o Taz]

I hope Lady Eli wins too.

She was magnificent at the Breeders Cup.

I am sorry we missed her in the Miss Grillo - the day after Super Saturday but we'll be looking for her in the future.

It seems like California Chrome will rest on his laurels which as I noted - is fine with me. I would have loved so see him run in the Clark - but he has had a long year.

It also seems that there is talk of him going to Japan.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/88593/california-chrome-will-campaign-in-2015

[Delamont]

I hope Lady Eli wins too.

She was magnificent at the Breeders Cup.

I am sorry we missed her in the Miss Grillo - the day after Super Saturday but we'll be looking for her in the future.

It seems like California Chrome will rest on his laurels which as I noted - is fine with me. I would have loved so see him run in the Clark - but he has had a long year.

It also seems that there is talk of him going to Japan.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/88593/california-chrome-will-campaign-in-2015

I hope he runs again...I really enjoy watching him.  But that's all up to his connections.

[Man o Taz]

I agree. He seems to be at his peak right now - but it has been a long year and depending upon what they choose to do with him...if Japan could be in the mix - well - why would they rule out Dubai?