2014 Horse Of The Year Candidates

[Man o Taz]

Well, its hard to believe, but most of the racing for the year has taken place already. All that is really left is fall racing and the Breeders Cup Championship which for Horse of the Year purposes will likely mean not more than two races for the top candidates - possibly three.   

I listed Close Hatches because if she were to take on the males and win I think she could make an excellent case for HOTY honors. However, I do not think that is in her plans.

Palace Malice is retired - but I have him at the top because he is still a worthy leader in my book - with his accomplishments so far this year.

1. Palace Malice (retired)

6th G1 Whitney, 9 furlongs
G1 Metropolitan Handicap, 8 furlongs defeating Moreno
G3 Westchester Stakes, 8 furlongs
G2 New Orleans Handicap, 8 furlongs
G2 Gulfstream Park Handicap, 8 furlongs defeating Itsmyluckyday

2. California Chrome (G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs)
4th G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs
G1 Preakness Stakes, 9.5 furlongs
G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
California Cup, 8.5 furlongs

3. Wise Dan (G1 Woodbine Mile/G1 Shadwell Turf Mile)
G2 Bernard Baruch, 8.5 furlongs (T)
G1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, 9 furlongs
G1 Makers 46 Mile (T)

4. Shared Belief (G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs; G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs)
G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs
G2 Los Alamitos Derby, 9 furlongs

4. Tonalist - tied (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs)
G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs defeating California Chrome
G2 Peter Pan, 9 furlongs

4. Itsmyluckday - tied (G2 Kelso, 8 furlongs)
G1 Woodward Stakes, 9 furlongs defeating Moreno
2nd G1 Whitney Stakes, 9 furlongs ahead of Palace Malice
G3 Salvator Mile
Majestic Light Stakes, 1 mile, 70 yards
Best of the Rest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
4th G2 Gulfstream Handicap, 1 mile

6. Game On Dude (G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs)
4th G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs
4th G1 Hollywood Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
2nd G2 Charles Town Classic, 9 furlongs
G1 Santa Anita Handicap, 10 furlongs
5th G2 San Diego Handicap, 9 furlongs

7. Close Hatches (G1 Spinster, 9 furlongs)
G1 Personal Ensign, 9 furlongs defeating Princess of Sylmar
G1 Ogden Phipps, 8.5 furlongs, defeating Princess of Sylmar and Beholder
G1 Apple Blossom, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Azeri, 8.5 furlongs

8. Lea - tied (G2 Kelso, 8 furlongs)
G1 Donn Handicap, 9 furlongs recording one of the highest BSFs for 2014

8. Moreno - tied (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs)
2nd G1 Woodward Stakes
G1 Whitney, defeating Palace Malice and Itsmyluckyday

[Senator L]

I think if Chrome wins his next he'll lock up HOY and 3 yr old champion
3 grade 1's and a grade 2 + a stakes race
that's some running :chickendance:

[peeptoad]

If Close Hatches could somehow manage a win against open company, then she'd be a top contender, but I don't see that happening. As it stands she's practically a lock for the distaff award though. The older males have largely taken turns beating each other, which leaves the door open for either Chrome or Shared Belief. Hard to imagine another 3yo vying for year end honors.

If either Chrome or Belief wins the Classic they get the award, or if a crazy longshot wins, then one of them might get it if they run well in defeat. The PA Derby isn't a grade 1 and is restricted... imho Chrome needs to beat older horses to really be worthy of HOY. At least Shared Belief has done that already, though the rest of his CV is light.

[Man o Taz]

How can each of Taz's Top 9 win HOTY?

1. Palace Malice (retired)

Probably can't. Chrome would have to fail to win another race and lose Champion three year old to another horse.

2. California Chrome (G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs)

Chrome is certainly the most accomplished horse. Perhaps the G2 win would be enough. However, without Shared Belief in the field, many would be curious regarding his ability against elders particularly given a lackluster field in the PA Derby.

3. Wise Dan (G1 Woodbine Mile/G1 Shadwell Turf Mile)

Dan has potentially three more G1s on his schedule including the Breeders Cup. If he wins out, and the others falter, there is always a chance for the three peat. It could get even more interesting if he were to run in and win the G1 Clark Handicap which could give him 6 G1 wins in 2014.

4. Shared Belief (G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs; G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs)

Would winning the BC Classic be enough to win HOTY?

I don't think so. I think he would need to win his last two races. Whether against California Chrome in both of them, or Chrome in one, and elders again in another, that would certainly make the strongest case possible.

4. Tonalist - tied (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs)

If Tonalist were to win out he would have 3 G1 wins including two classics - and three at the classic distance. That's a strong resume even if California Chrome were to win the Pennsylvania Derby over Shared Belief. It would give Tonalist two victories over California Chrome and two victories over older horses.

4. Itsmyluckday - tied (G2 Kelso, 8 furlongs)

He needs some help. I would suggest that he would not only need to win the Classic, but the Kelso in near track record setting time, but also win the G1 Cigar Mile.

6. Game On Dude (G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs)

If Game On Dude can finally win the BC Classic, that would make a strong case for him. Would it be enough to overcome California Chrome or Shared Belief's resume? No. Not without a win in the Awesome Again.

7. Close Hatches (G1 Spinster, 9 furlongs)

She would need to win against males. I do not see that happening in the Jockey Club Gold Cup which would likely be the easier spot for her than the Classic. She has never been tested at 10 furlongs so it would be interesting to see. If HOTY is truly a goal, I would send her to the Awesome Again and let her take on the males there. Even with a loss, as noted, she has likely sewn up the distaff division.

8. Lea - tied (G2 Kelso, 8 furlongs)
G1 Donn Handicap, 9 furlongs recording highest BSF for 2014

This is another difficult one. Something more than the winning of a prep race and the BC Classic would be necessary. The G1 Cigar Mile or G1 Clark Handicap is an option.

8. Moreno - tied (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs)

He likewise needs help - and the same scenario that Lea and Itsmyluckyday faces.

[curtis]

I want to see Will Take Charge win the JCGC and the BCC so I can view the mushroom clouds above Santa Anita.

[Raven]

Itsmyluckyday is moving forward and might end up being the best horse at the end of the year!

[Man o Taz]

I want to see Will Take Charge win the JCGC and the BCC so I can view the mushroom clouds above Santa Anita.

I would not mind that at all.

However, I think his winning both would leave Horse of the Year for Palce Malice or probably more likely, California Chrome or Wise Dan provided the former wins the PA Derby and the latter wins two more races...it seems the voters are getting used to voting Wise Dan...a three peat would put Dan in haloed company with Kelso...not quite...but it would be incredible.

[peeptoad]

Itsmyluckyday is moving forward and might end up being the best horse at the end of the year!

I hope so. He retires at year's end, so it would be a nice way to go out...

[curtis]

I would not mind that at all.

However, I think his winning both would leave Horse of the Year for Palce Malice or probably more likely, California Chrome or Wise Dan provided the former wins the PA Derby and the latter wins two more races...it seems the voters are getting used to voting Wise Dan...a three peat would put Dan in haloed company with Kelso...not quite...but it would be incredible.

If Will Take Charge were to win both of those races and add the Clark he would easily surpass Palace Malice, in my opinion.  This wouldn't guarantee him an Eclipse award, however. 

Your last sentence is telling and my main problem with Wise Dan winning.  Three Horse of the Years would equal Forego.  The difference is Forego raced against the best horses in the country for three years, Wise Dan hasn't.  Someone shouldn't be able to look in a history book and think the two horses are comparable--they're not.

[Man o Taz]

If Will Take Charge were to win both of those races and add the Clark he would easily surpass Palace Malice, in my opinion.  This wouldn't guarantee him an Eclipse award, however. 

Your last sentence is telling and my main problem with Wise Dan winning.  Three Horse of the Years would equal Forego.  The difference is Forego raced against the best horses in the country for three years, Wise Dan hasn't.  Someone shouldn't be able to look in a history book and think the two horses are comparable--they're not.

Agreed. I am a big Dan fan, but Forego won against the best at all distances between 7 furlongs and 12 furlongs.

Now, Dan has beaten some of our best horses...but on turf. His Clark win on dirt was impressive since he did best one of the top older horses in Flat Out that year, but it was one win on dirt.

That said, he has one a number of main track synthetic races against top horses in addition to his turf feats, but Forego ranks 8th in the Thoroughbred Champions top 100 horses. Wise Dan is impressive and deserving of accolades, but I do not think he is in the top 10 of all American thoroughbreds in the last 100 years. 

[peeptoad]

4. Shared Belief (G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs; G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs)
G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs
G2 Los Alamitos Derby, 9 furlongs

http://www.drf.com/news/hovdey-california-chrome-shared-belief-collision-course

Hollendorfer confirms Shared Belief for Awesome Again (as suspected). He'll have one more work at GG next week and then ship to SA for the AA (and presumably, the Classic).

[Man o Taz]

It will be interesting to see if he just stays at Santa Anita or they ship him back to Golden Gate in between. It doesn't seem like Mr. Hollendorfer likes to take any chances with the colt training anywhere but at Golden Gate.

[Man o Taz]

How can each of Taz's Top 10 win HOTY?

Horse (Next Race, distance)
Analysis
Last result, if not already posted above.

1. Palace Malice (retired)

Probably can't. Chrome would have to fail to win another race and lose champion three year old to another horse who did not win the BC Classic. I'm thinking Shared Belief wins the Awesome Again, but loses in the BC Classic...and none of the other contenders finish as noted below. Not completely ruling him out yet.

2. California Chrome (G1 Breeders Cup Classic, 10 furlongs)

Chrome is still the most accomplished three year old. He is still the top three year old no matter what the "what have you done for me lately NTRA polls say".

6th G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs

3. Wise Dan (G1 Shadwell Turf Mile)

Dan has potentially two more G1s on his schedule including the Breeders Cup. If he wins out, and the others falter, there is always a chance for the three peat. A win in the G1 Clark Handicap which could give him 5 G1 wins in 2014 would be a tough case to argue against since the best other horses can do is likely 4 G1 wins and thats only if California Chrome would win the BC Classic which would eliminate Dan from contention. I think as well as dirt horses are doing this year, Dan will have to win on dirt to win HOTY this year unless the others fall apart in the BC Classic and/or their preps.

4. Shared Belief (G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs)

Would winning the BC Classic be enough to win HOTY? He needs to win his last two races against open company.

4. Tonalist - tied (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs)

If Tonalist were to win out he would have 3 G1 wins including two classics - and these would be at the classic distance or greater. That's a strong resume even if Shared Belief were to win another G1 against older horses. It would give Tonalist two victories over California Chrome and two victories over older horses. Tonalist would likely take three year old honors as well en route to Horse of the Year.

4. Bayern - tied (BC Classic, 10 furlongs) 

G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs
10th G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs
G1 Haskell Stakes, 9 furlongs
G2 Woody Stephens, 7 furlongs
9th G1 Preakness Stakes, 9.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Derby Trial, 8 furlongs
3rd G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs

7. Itsmyluckday - tied (G2 Kelso Handicap, 8 furlongs)

He needs some help. I would suggest that he would not only need to win the Classic, but the Kelso in near track record setting time, but also win the G1 Cigar Mile. That would give him 3 G1 wins against good competition. It looks like he may skip the BC Classic this year so he is basically out of the running fro HOTY - but could make a case for champion older horse if he opted for the Clark Handicap over the Cigar Mile. After all, Wise Dan is the only older horse with 2 G1 wins. He could still finish with 5 as noted above.

6. Game On Dude (G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs)

8. Close Hatches (G1 Spinster, 9 furlongs)

She would need to win against males. I do not see that happening in the Jockey Club Gold Cup which would likely be the easier spot for her than the Classic. She has never been tested at 10 furlongs so it would be interesting to see. If HOTY is truly a goal, I would send her to the Awesome Again and let her take on the males there. Even with a loss, as noted, she has likely sewn up the distaff division.

9. Lea - tied (??)
G1 Donn Handicap, 9 furlongs recording the 3rd highest BSF (114) for 2014.

This is another difficult one. Something more than the winning of a prep race and the BC Classic would be necessary. The G1 Cigar Mile or G1 Clark Handicap is an option.

10. Moreno - tied (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs)

He likewise needs help - and the same scenario that Lea faces. Itsmyluckyday has at least run in and won a number of other races.
[/quote]

10. VE Day tied (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup)

He is new on the scene, but he did win the Travers Stakes. His winning out would make a strong case for Horse of the Year, and at least champion three year old.

G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs
Curlin Stakes, 9 furlongs

10. Wicked Strong (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup)
2nd G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs
G2 Jim Dandy, 9 furlongs
4th G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs
4th G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs

[Man o Taz]

It seems that Mr. Haskin agrees on some of the three year old HOTY potential:


Also, if Shared Belief gets beat in the Awesome Again, it actually opens the 3-year-old Eclipse door to Bayern, Wicked Strong, V.E. Day, and Tonalist. Maybe even Horse of the Year. If, for instance, V.E. Day ends the year with victories in the Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Breeders' Cup Classic that certainly would earn him votes. The same with Tonalist, with the Peter Pan, Belmont Stakes, JC Gold Cup, and BC Classic. The same with Wicked Strong, with the Wood Memorial, Jim Dandy, JC Gold Cup, and BC Classic and a nose defeat in the Travers. And the same with Bayern, with the Woody Stephens, Haskell Invitational, Pennsylvania Derby, and Breeders' Cup Classic.

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2014/09/22/shared-belief-needs-to-be-awesome-again.aspx#ixzz3ELkeiQJv

[Man o Taz]

My thinking is even if Shared Belief wins the Awesome Again, if he loses the BC Classic he is not champion three year old so long as another three year old bests him in the Classic...

Even if he finishes ahead of them but loses to an older horse...he might not get champion three year old despite his resume against older horses since unless one of them were to win the Classic the same old complaint would surface - who did he beat. Now, I do not exactly subscribe to this point of view, but many of the voters do.