Pennsylvania Derby Could Be The Best Ever

[Man o Taz]

I am drooling at the possible line-up for the Pennsylvania Derby:

California Chrome
Shared Belief
VE Day OR Wicked Strong (I am thinking the latter since VE Day has shown himself to be the better horse at 10 furlongs with Wicked Strong achieving a 2nd, 4th, and 4th in 10 furlong or more races this year. Maybe he should be rested for the Breeders Cup Classic and not tested again (how many horses have run in the Derby, Belmont, Travers, JCGC and BC Classic in the same year and won one of the latter two? - I think the answer is zero- Unbridled probably comes closest having run in the Triple Crown races but he skipped the Travers taking the summer off). Plus - there is much more money to be gained in Philadelphia - and much more prestige. Tonalist loves Belmont Park - so for Team Jerkens to put all their eggs in this basket may not be prudent.)
Tapiture
Protonico

This race could have a lot to say about not only champion three year old, but also Horse of the Year.

If Shared Belief or California Chrome win out either one could be Horse of the Year.

If Chrome loses in Pennsylvania, but wins at Santa Anita he'll be Horse of the Year.

If Shared Belief loses in Pennsylvania, but wins in the BC Classic - a lot of debate will be raised.

Shared Belief
G1 Pacific Classic
G2 Los Alamitos Derby

California Chrome
4th G1 Belmont Stakes
G1 Preakness Stakes
G1 Kentucky Derby
G1 Santa Anita Derby
G2 San Felipe
California Cup

Its hard to overcome the 5 stakes wins by California Chrome.

And his beating Shared Belief in the Pennsylvania Derby one would think would ice his three year old championship.

Shared Belief, on the other hand, has a thinner resume and a loss to California Chrome in the PA Derby would give him a head to head win.

Is there any incentive for Shared Belief to come East? What if he runs in and wins the G1 Awesome Again and then takes on California Chrome. He would have 2 G1 wins against older horses. A win in the BC Classic would give him three wins against older horses...but his races would all be out West...and naysayers would challenge the competition there except in the BC Classic.

Now, Los Alamitos is dirt. However, is the loam of Los Alamitos the same as Santa Anita? Is Philadelphia Park better suited to Shared Belief than Santa Anita? I don't know.

I hope they send Shared Belief. Its the sporting thing to do. I do not know that I could choose a cheering interest. I love both Chrome and SB. The biggest irony would be if the top horses in the race are from California and the top East Coast three year olds stay away.

We know one isn't in Tapiture with Mr. Asmussen featuring his two top three year olds of either sex that day in Untapable as well. 

   

[serenassong]

I would love to see Shared Belief and Chrome lock horns, would make for a fantastic race.

[Man o Taz]

If they both stay healthy its going to happen sooner or later.

Shared Belief has not had much of a chance to test the best of the three year old ranks - and this race would offer him the stiffest test yet against three year olds. Candy Boy is one of the best of his generation, but since winning the G2 Robert Lewis in February. In his four races since - only in the Kentucky Derby has he finished out of the money - finishing second in his last two.

Some may suggest that he has nothing to prove against them given his taking on the older males in the Pacific Classic, but despite his impressive showing in the Los Alamitos Derby, it is his only effort on dirt.

I hope he comes East. I also hope more of the top three year olds enter the Pennsylvania Derby, but I understand if California Chrome and Shared Belief scare them off.

[peeptoad]

I highly doubt Shared Belief ships for this race. The Awesome Again is a more logical BC prep and he would just have to ship down from GG, rather than cross country and back. Hollendorfer also is apparently entertaining the idea of training him up to the Classic, but I think that's a less likely scenario than shipping for the PA Derby.

In terms of the 3yo award Shared Belief would probably have to win the Classic to have a chance. If that happens he may also have a shot at HOY, depending on how the other races between now and then unfold.

[Man o Taz]

I agree there are many reason not to ship him. I also agree that training him up to the Breeders Cup Classic would be a tough ask for the colt.

However, what horses would he face in the Awesome Again, that he did not face in the Pacific Classic? Few, if any.

Now, the benefit of running in the Awesome Again other than avoiding the cross country ship is easy to see in his getting to try the Santa Anita dirt which he has never tried before for a race in advance of the Breeders Cup.

Many are suggesting that the three year olds this year are better than the older horses. I am not one of them - but you hear the broadcasters on TVG, HRN, NBC, Fox and elsewhere suggesting this.

If that is the case - Shared Belief has only one win against three year olds - where he bested one top three year old who is winless since February in Candy Boy.

The Pennsylvania Derby also offers a nice price tag far exceeding that offered in the Awesome Again - Mr. Hollendorfer is nothing if not a businessman. 

I would not be surprised if Shared Belief shows up in the PA Derby.

I doubt it would have any negative impact on his performance in the BC Classic unless he has a problem shipping and I have seen nothing to suggest he would.

He would also get an extra week of rest.

And there is also likely appearance fees available from Philadelphia Park. 

I'll have no problem understanding if he does not show up in the PA Derby - but I would not be surprised at all if he did.

[Man o Taz]

Shared Belief heading to the Awesome Again after his 1.02 and .50 second works...

Perhaps they don't feel he's sharp enough coming out of the Pacific Classic, but he seems to work pretty slow anyway...

It looks like the Awesome Again field will be nothing special - at least not including any big horses that Shared Belief has not already bested in the Pacific Classic.

That said, as I noted, this will be Shared Belief's first race over the Santa Anita dirt so it will be interesting to see how he does on a top dirt track.

I do not know how the loam of Los Alamitos compares to that of Santa Anita, but it is likely one of the biggest challenges that SB will face.   

I also wonder if Shared Belief conducting all his races in California - if he were to win out with three G1 wins against older horses - would suffer some of the stigma that has burdened game on dude and even Zenyatta for not being campaigned outside of California. At least Zenyatta competed at Oaklawn. In the end, it may make little difference since Shared Belief can be campaigned next year all over the country...but will it be with or without an eclipse award.

I wonder if this will encourage others to enter the Pennsylvania Derby...with that $1 million price tag there where second place would equal better than first place for other preps and also provide and extra week to prepare for the Breeders Cup.

And just as I speak it seems that Bayern and Candy Boy may be both eying a rematch with California Chrome.

[peeptoad]

Honestly, I don't think the PA Derby was ever a serious consideration for Shared Belief; at least that was never expressed to the media, as far as I can tell.
The Awesome Again might not be the strongest race in terms of potential entries, but it would be vastly more interesting (for me) if Itsmyluckyday ends up in there. My guess is the owners are still deciding whether or not to supplement him to the BC, otherwise why ship all the way to CA just for the prep. ?

I look forward to seeing Bayern in the Met Mile next year. I hope the connections have that one penciled in, even though it's way off in the future. Seems like a race tailor-made for a horse like Bayern.

[Man o Taz]

And it may be nearing G1 status...
http://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-pennsylvania-derby-lures-big-horse-nears-grade-1-status

I did not realize that the purse for the Jockey Club Gold Cup had been increased to a $1 million.

Now I know why VE Day and Wicked Strong are pointing there.

I do not understand less why Shared Belief is pointing to the $300,000 Awesome Again. I guess the philosophy "if it ain't broke don't fix it" may come into play. They have next year to challenge out of California. Will miss him.

[peeptoad]

And it may be nearing G1 status...
http://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-pennsylvania-derby-lures-big-horse-nears-grade-1-status

I did not realize that the purse for the Jockey Club Gold Cup had been increased to a $1 million.

Now I know why VE Day and Wicked Strong are pointing there.

I do not understand less why Shared Belief is pointing to the $300,000 Awesome Again. I guess the philosophy "if it ain't broke don't fix it" may come into play. They have next year to challenge out of California. Will miss him.

I agree, considering the vast difference in the purse. Maybe they don't want to ship and/or run 3X in a row at 10F??

[Man o Taz]

Honestly, I don't think the PA Derby was ever a serious consideration for Shared Belief; at least that was never expressed to the media, as far as I can tell.
The Awesome Again might not be the strongest race in terms of potential entries, but it would be vastly more interesting (for me) if Itsmyluckyday ends up in there. My guess is the owners are still deciding whether or not to supplement him to the BC, otherwise why ship all the way to CA just for the prep. ?

I look forward to seeing Bayern in the Met Mile next year. I hope the connections have that one penciled in, even though it's way off in the future. Seems like a race tailor-made for a horse like Bayern.

I would love if Itsmyluckday went to the Awesome Again.

I know SB's assistant is the only one to mention the PA Derby as a possibility. However, Mr. Hollendorfer has successfully shipped to Philadelphia Park and Delaware before. And he has also showed he is a businessman with his campaign of horses sending them to the richest races. The Pacific Classic was an example of that. As was the Delaware Handicap for Blind Luck. However, perhaps Blind Luck had shown herself to be a more durable horse than Shared Belief - and they are keeping their eyes on the BC prize. I firmly believe it never hurts to get a horse a prep over the surface of a major race so the Awesome Again makes sense in that respect.   

[Man o Taz]

I agree, considering the vast difference in the purse. Maybe they don't want to ship and/or run 3X in a row at 10F??

That's why I feel the PA Derby was a good choice since its 9 furlongs against three year olds.

Then again, with California Chrome being the monster that he is - the easier place might be in the Awesome Again unless Game On Dude regains his form.

Who knows - after the Pacific Classic - Baffert may rest him for the Classic again.

But I think California Chrome - if he is vulnerable - will be in his return race. In the Classic I think he wins it over all comers - but we'll see. Shared Belief could be that good.

[Man o Taz]

America's Best Racing to stream Pennsylvania Derby...

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/87338/americasbestracingnet-to-stream-penn-derby

I wonder how much Shared Belief pulling out of the PA Derby will affect attendance.

What many forget is that the racing that day at Philadelphia Park not only includes the likely champion three year old colt, but also the likely champion three year old filly in Untapable running in the G1 Cotillion.

Get to see the best three year old filly and colt in the country - the winners of the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks.

[peeptoad]

I wonder how much Shared Belief pulling out of the PA Derby will affect attendance.

I don't think it will affect attendance at all, mainly because Shared Belief was never (according to any of the major media outlets) seriously considered for the PA Derby. You can't pull out if you were never there to begin with...

[peeptoad]

This might be behind a paywall, but I'll post the link anyway:
http://www.drf.com/news/premium/pennsylvania-derby-lineup-grows-three

current probables for PA Derby:

CA Chrome
Bayern
Protonico
CJ's Awesome
Candy Boy
Classic Giacnroll
Noble Moon
Tapiture

the field will be drawn in  today...

[Man o Taz]

I don't think it will affect attendance at all, mainly because Shared Belief was never (according to any of the major media outlets) seriously considered for the PA Derby. You can't pull out if you were never there to begin with...

My query was IF the two of them were coming to the race would there be more attendance then just Chrome coming. I actually think its the same answer, though - Chrome is the name - he's the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner - I doubt people are coming to see the race just because Shared Belief might be entered as well.

Its too bad Samraat and Uncle Sigh are not back to try this race, but the field is shaping up well. 8 horses...

Is Philly (I started typing phonetically filly) Park a speed favoring track like Monmouth? I don't really remember. I actually think it has less of a bias enabling horses coming off the pace to do well. This may hurt Bayern. I wonder if this race determines if Bayern goes in the Classic or the Dirt Mile or even the Sprint?