The 139th Running of the G1 Preakness Stakes

[Man o Taz]

Well, the Derby is over and now its on the the Preakness Stakes.

Already, folks are asking the inevitable question - can California Chrome get the Triple Crown?

My thinking is, if any horse in the field can, why not the horse who everyone has judged to be the best three year old horse running?

He got the Kentucky Derby, and Victor Espinosa indicated that he was geared down in the stretch and never truly opened up in the Kentucky Derby.

The connections are being very careful in not shipping him back and fourth taking the same precautions that the connections of I'll Have Another took two years ago in avoiding the stress of multiple plane rides.

And some have been suggesting that on CC's dam side there is more stamina than originally thought.

This said, my feeling is let's take one race at a time. If he does not win the Preakness Stakes, his stamina for the Belmont Stakes is irrelevant.

There will be some good horses coming back in the Preakness and new entries....

Let's look at the potential field to face California Chrome:

Derby Contenders:
Commanding Curve
Danza
Ride On Curlin
Samraat

New entries:
Bayern
Dynamic Sky
Hoppertunity
Kid Cruz
Midnight Hawk
Pablo Del Monte
Ring Weekend
Social Inclusion
Strong Mandate

Not an option:
Untapable (but who know - it was not an option for Dance With Fate either)

[Man o Taz]

I am actually surprised that neither Wildcat Red nor General a Rod are being pointed to the Preakness Stakes, if healthy.

I know they may not have liked Churchill's quirky surface, but I think Pimlico is a much more straight forward surface that they might find appealing.

I think Commanding Curve looks like a better choice for the Belmont Stakes, as does Intense Holiday, but Curve's connections might not like how that option turned out last year - so they might opt to change things up and head to Pimlico.

[peeptoad]

I do not think Samraat is going.. Violette said afterwards they skip Baltimore, but possible for the Belmont. I think his forwardly placed grinding style would do well in that one actually.
Social Inclusion also recently had a hoof problem,, so not sure he is going.

[afleetphil]

Chrome wins the Preakness. I liked the way he was throttled back a bit at the end of the Derby. Save him for the next race. If Chrome had been going all out I think he would have won by ten.

[Man o Taz]

Chrome wins the Preakness. I liked the way he was throttled back a bit at the end of the Derby. Save him for the next race. If Chrome had been going all out I think he would have won by ten.

Uh oh - you sound like his connections. (SMILE)

Victor Espinosa delivered the perfect ride in every sense of the word.

Dialing him back at the end to save his energy for the next potentially two races was so smart. I think of all the jockeys who have won two legs of the Triple Crown, and then gotten another chance, Victor demonstrated that he learned the most from the first go round with this ride than any other Derby/Preakness winner who missed out on the third leg of the Triple Crown and then got the chance again. Now, I don't know how many jockeys have ever been in this position...I can only actually think of one of the top of my head...

I agree at least 5 if he was gunned.

And Jerry Bailey's comments were fantastic at the end of the race in response to Randy Moss suggesting that critics will say that California Chrome's time was slow when he responded something like - he just had to beat the horses in this race today. Snap, crackle - and pop...

[serenassong]

It is indeed very smart. I not as worried for him in this race as I am for the Belmont- I really think that this will be a real, true test for him. If he can keep that high cruising speed that he has around Big Sandy- it could be game over. But, that last 1/4 is the real tell, IMO.

[Man o Taz]

I really think his previous training at Los Alamitos which now has the longest stretch in the US will help him in that record. The issue with Belmont is the actual distance you have to go around the track to make it to that stretch.

I would imagine that should the connections win the Preakness, they will move directly to Belmont which could give him a good two weeks to get to know the surface.

I am really excited about getting to see him in the Preakness.

Horses in bold are listed on DRF as pointing to the Preakness.
http://www.drf.com/events/preakness-stakes

Derby Contenders:
California Chrome
Commanding Curve - heading to the Belmont
Danza
Ride On Curlin - new jockey Joel Rosario
Samraat - heading to the Belmont

New entries:
Bayern
Dynamic Impact
Hoppertunity - getting surgery
Kid Cruz
Midnight Hawk
Pablo Del Monte
Ring Weekend
Social Inclusion
Strong Mandate

Not an option:
Untapable (but who know - it was not an option for Dance With Fate either)

I think my top 3 for the Preakness right now would be California Chrome, Danza and Kid Cruz.

Bayern just has not impressed me. I do not think 8 furlongs is a good prep for a horse running 9.5 who has shown he can win at at least 9 furlongs.

Who knows  - he may love the Pimlico surface and take off...wiring the field.

If 9 enter that would be the same number that entered last year...

[Delamont]

Much as I like Midnight Hawk, I don't see him getting the distance. 

[curtis]

Uh oh - you sound like his connections. (SMILE)

Victor Espinosa delivered the perfect ride in every sense of the word.

Dialing him back at the end to save his energy for the next potentially two races was so smart. I think of all the jockeys who have won two legs of the Triple Crown, and then gotten another chance, Victor demonstrated that he learned the most from the first go round with this ride than any other Derby/Preakness winner who missed out on the third leg of the Triple Crown and then got the chance again. Now, I don't know how many jockeys have ever been in this position...I can only actually think of one of the top of my head...

I agree at least 5 if he was gunned.

And Jerry Bailey's comments were fantastic at the end of the race in response to Randy Moss suggesting that critics will say that California Chrome's time was slow when he responded something like - he just had to beat the horses in this race today. Snap, crackle - and pop...

And I assume he has the initials KD.  After observing him for years, I can safely say learning is not his forte.

[curtis]

It is indeed very smart. I not as worried for him in this race as I am for the Belmont- I really think that this will be a real, true test for him. If he can keep that high cruising speed that he has around Big Sandy- it could be game over. But, that last 1/4 is the real tell, IMO.

I don't think it is the distance or the track as much as it is the fact that he would be going after his third race in a five week span--all at distances longer than he has ever run before.  I do think California Chrome has the right style, as I thought I'll Have Another did two years ago.  For that matter, War Emblem, Smarty Jones and Big Brown had the right styles.  I think bad luck (War Emblem), questionable training (Smarty Jones) and a bad ride (I swear Desormeaux rode Big Brown that day with both hands firmly around his own throat) ultimately lead to their demises.  For as maligned as Desormeaux was after Real Quiet's Belmont he had the right idea he just was a little too eager and moved him early.  I remember hearing him on the radio before the '97 Belmont, when he rode Free House.  He mentioned that the trouble with riding at Belmont was moving too early since it was so different than any other American track.  So then he essentially moved Real Quiet too early a year later.  I think that you have to put the field away coming into the stretch to win.  Affirmed was an aberration as he didn't normally put horses away--at least when Cauthen rode him.  He loved a fight, however and Vietch and Velasquez just couldn't get it into their heads that engaging Affirmed was playing into his hands.  Silver Charm was of a similar nature and I thought McCarron rode Touch Gold perfectly when he went way wide and swooped by Silver Charm before he could re-rally.

[Man o Taz]

Much as I like Midnight Hawk, I don't see him getting the distance.

I don't that he'll get the distance either, but his connections seemed so hopeful that he would run in a Triple Crown race and this seems like the best fit for him - so only the health of the horse coming out of the Derby Trial I would think would hold them back.

[Delamont]

I don't think it is the distance or the track as much as it is the fact that he would be going after his third race in a five week span--all at distances longer than he has ever run before.  I do think California Chrome has the right style, as I thought I'll Have Another did two years ago.  For that matter, War Emblem, Smarty Jones and Big Brown had the right styles.  I think bad luck (War Emblem), questionable training (Smarty Jones) and a bad ride (I swear Desormeaux rode Big Brown that day with both hands firmly around his own throat) ultimately lead to their demises.  For as maligned as Desormeaux was after Real Quiet's Belmont he had the right idea he just was a little too eager and moved him early.  I remember hearing him on the radio before the '97 Belmont, when he rode Free House.  He mentioned that the trouble with riding at Belmont was moving too early since it was so different than any other American track.  So then he essentially moved Real Quiet too early a year later.  I think that you have to put the field away coming into the stretch to win.  Affirmed was an aberration as he didn't normally put horses away--at least when Cauthen rode him.  He loved a fight, however and Vietch and Velasquez just couldn't get it into their heads that engaging Affirmed was playing into his hands.  Silver Charm was of a similar nature and I thought McCarron rode Touch Gold perfectly when he went way wide and swooped by Silver Charm before he could re-rally.

Interesting points.  And I love watching a horse that loves a fight.

[Man o Taz]

And I assume he has the initials KD.  After observing him for years, I can safely say learning is not his forte.

Not mentioning any names. (SMILE)

[Man o Taz]

I don't think it is the distance or the track as much as it is the fact that he would be going after his third race in a five week span--all at distances longer than he has ever run before.  I do think California Chrome has the right style, as I thought I'll Have Another did two years ago.  For that matter, War Emblem, Smarty Jones and Big Brown had the right styles.  I think bad luck (War Emblem), questionable training (Smarty Jones) and a bad ride (I swear Desormeaux rode Big Brown that day with both hands firmly around his own throat) ultimately lead to their demises.  For as maligned as Desormeaux was after Real Quiet's Belmont he had the right idea he just was a little too eager and moved him early.  I remember hearing him on the radio before the '97 Belmont, when he rode Free House.  He mentioned that the trouble with riding at Belmont was moving too early since it was so different than any other American track.  So then he essentially moved Real Quiet too early a year later.  I think that you have to put the field away coming into the stretch to win.  Affirmed was an aberration as he didn't normally put horses away--at least when Cauthen rode him.  He loved a fight, however and Vietch and Velasquez just couldn't get it into their heads that engaging Affirmed was playing into his hands.  Silver Charm was of a similar nature and I thought McCarron rode Touch Gold perfectly when he went way wide and swooped by Silver Charm before he could re-rally.

I actually do not include Silver Charm as an almost TC winner since had Touch Gold not had a bad start in the Preakness Stakes he would have and should have won the second jewel of the TC.

The pussycat made this quite clear, to me at least with his finish in the Preakness and the result he achieved in the Belmont Stakes.

[Man o Taz]

Well, it seems like Danza will not be entering the Preakness - or has not been entered yet - but they will stick get 9 horses...adding the filly Ria Antonia...