MOT's Derby Dozen

[peeptoad]

I think you might have something there with Hoppertunity. A lot of folks have been saying that he has the tactical speed and ability to close.

We'll see. Hopper is still my solid #2 and, to be honest, I have two big doubts about CA Chrome that I will not voice until I see him move over the CD strip (if I even get the chance).
Regarding Hopper I think he is a solid horse, is well meant for the Derby, and the only knock I have is that he did not race at 2 and was raced 5 times this year already in an effort to make up for that. Hopefully he is not over the top because that's the only real issue I have with him. A lot of people (not on this board) think he is the wise guy horse, and maybe he is but I cannot see that. I think he will get bet at CD and the wise guy is supposed to be an under the radar type that takes more money than they should.
For me Medal Count is probably the wise guy, but that remains to be seen.

Here is my list for this week (and I will possibly update once more before the field is set). Only real change is the removal of Tapiture... I already had him ranked low and I was actually hoping he'd run on Saturday so he'd take money because I don't like him for the Derby at all.

1. California Chrome
2. Hoppertunity
3. Samraat
4. Wicked Strong
5. Commanding Curve**
6. Constitution
7. Ride On Curlin
8. Dance With Fate
9. General a Rod
10. Wildcat Red

** if he makes the gate- looking unlikely at this point.

[Man o Taz]

I kind of place Dance With Fate in the same category as We Miss Artie - though his 2nf place finish in the G1 Frontrunner right behind Bondholder provides a bit more reason to think he might be able to do something on dirt than We Miss Artie. The only problem is that that was months ago and since then his dirt efforts have not been inspiring.

I did really like his win in the Bluegrass Stakes though and I thought it a shame that this is the last time we'll likely see a horse like him enter the race with the switch back to dirt.

I considered dropping Tapiture. He had no excuses. But I look at it like his last two efforts have been good ones...and he bounced a bit.

I do not think Hoppertunity will be over the top at all.

I think he needed those 5 races to build some bottom since he hadn't raced at 2 and now that he has it he can do what so many others - including the great Curlin were unable to do - break that curse. I think he will be very sharp for the Derby and agree he is no wise guy horse - heck he's number two on most Derby lists...

[Man o Taz]

As expected, not much change in Steve's list. We share nine out of 12...

He does offer some interesting insights about Danza's breeder.

LIke many folks this week, he dumped Tapiture. I think Tapiture can be forgiven. Some suggest he had no excuses, but I think after two strong performances he can be forgiven for taking a step back. Maybe this is a glimpse of what impact stretching out will mean for him, but its just one race. If Hoppertunity could be forgiven for a less than brilliant performance in the Santa Anita Derby, I think Tapiture could be forgiven for this performance. Then again, Hoppertunity was facing the Derby favorite over his favorite surface, while Tapiture was not facing top Derby prospects over a surface he seemed to relish in the recent past. So, I do not blame folks for jumping off his bandwagon - I'm just not one of them.

Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/04/14/derby-dozen-april-14-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx
April 14, 2014
1. California Chrome
2. Hoppertunity
3. Wicked Strong
4. Constitution 
5. Danza
6. General a Rod
7. Cairo Prince
8. Intense Holiday
9. Samraat
10. Ride On Curlin
11. Candy Boy
12. Vicar's In Trouble

[Man o Taz]

Some more three year old rankings:

America's Best Racing
NTRA Top Three Year Old Thoroughbred Poll
April 14, 2014
http://www.americasbestracing.net/en/leaderboard/polls/

1. California Chrome 506
2. Constitution 372
3. Wicked Strong 309
4. Hoppertunity 266
5. Samraat 220
6. Wildcat Red 164
7. Vicar's In Trouble 161
8. Danza 158
9. Cairo Prince 120
10. Untapable 118

Others receiving votes

Intense Holiday (99)
Candy Boy (70)
Tapiture (44)
Dance With Fate (39)
Ride On Curlin (39)

Horse Racing Nation Fan Power Rankings of Top Three Year Olds
http://www.horseracingnation.com/polls/current/PowerRankings_Active

1. California Chrome
2. Untapable (f)
3. Vicar's In Trouble
4. Cairo Prince
5. Constitution
6. Tapiture
7. Wicked Strong
8. Divine Oath
9. Sugar Shock (f)
10. Wildcat Red

2014 Three Year Old Top Time Form Rankings
http://www.horseracingnation.com/

1. Wicked Strong 117 4/5
2. Social Inclusion 115 4/5
3. Social Inclusion 114 3/12
4. Schiaverelli 114 2/21
5. Samraat 114 4/5
6. Schiaverelli 113 4/5
7. California Chrome 113 4/5
8. California Chrome 111 3/8
9. Gracer 111 2/8
10. Fast Anna 110 4/12
11. Uncle Sigh 110 2/1
12. Danza 110 4/12
13. Samraat 110 2/1
14. In Trouble 109 3/1

Top Three Year Old Beyer Speed Figures
http://www1.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer

1. Social Inclusion 111 3/12
2. California Chrome 108 3/8
3. California Chrome 107 4/5
4. Untapable 106 3/29
5. Wicked Strong 104 4/5
6. Alex Inc 102 2/25
7. Chitu 102 3/23
8. Danza 102 4/12
9. Cee n O 3/26 101
10. Favorite Tale 3/24 101
11. General a Rod 2/22 101
12.  Wildcat Red 2/22 101
13. Hopperunity 3/15 100
14. Untapable 2/22 100

[Man o Taz]

DRF Top 20
http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-top-20-churchill-downs
Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker

1. California Chrome 3-1
2. Wicked Strong 8-1
3. Hoppertunity 10-1
4. Cairo Prince 12-1
5. Danza 12-1
6. Samraat 15-1
7. Tapiture 15-1
8. Vicar's In Trouble 15-1
9. Wildcat Red 15-1
10. Candy Boy 20-1
11. Dance With Fate 20-1
12. General a Rod 20-1
13. Intense Holiday 20-1
14. Chitu 30-1
15. Medal Count 30-1
16. Midnight Hawk 30-1
17. Ride On Curlin 30-1
18. Uncle Sigh 30-1
19. Ring Weekend 50-1
20. We Miss Artie 50-1

Well, I must like their top 12 the best - I have 10-12 of their picks...of course where we differ is one numbers 17 and 19 which I have much higher...

ESPN Power Rankings
April 17
http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/triplecrown2014/story/_/id/10786772/power-rankings-2014-top-10-kentucky-derby-contenders-week-9

1. California Chrome
2. Hoppertunity
3. Wicked Strong
4. Constitution
5. Samraat
6. Cairo Prince
7. Vicar's In Trouble
8. Intense Holiday
9. Candy Boy
10. Wildcat Red
11. Danza

I added Danza since Constitution is off the Derby/TC trail and he was next in points for them.

So, only one non-racer at 2 will be running. But I like Steve Haskin's comment that Hoppertunity was actually ready to run in a November race and was scratched - so unlike other horses that did not race at 2 - Hoppertunity was actually in training and ready to run...so perhaps the Apollo curse will not hold on him...

[Dance With Gable]

I always find it exceedingly amusing watching people knock themselves out looking for reasons NOT to support a horse for the Derby. Whatever BS what if they can invent ...

Memo to those who do that in regards to California Chrome ... if you've got to try so hard to find reasons not to back him ... you, in reality, know he's the one. If he weren't, you wouldn't have to work so hard to make him a "play against".

I've not seen it here ... but I have elsewhere.

And those vaulting Danza ahead of him off his last race alone are REALLY stretching. Cali Chrome has romped in hand rides 4 straight. Danza has done practically nothing in comparison.

[Man o Taz]

Everything I read says California Chrome is the deserving favorite and the deserving number one on Derby lists.

Now, from a handicapping standpoint, I could certainly see using him as a play against.

However, from the standpoint of picking the winner if there is general agreement that he is the well-deserved favorite then I do not know how one can doubt him.

It will be interesting to see how he takes to the Churchill Downs track.

And the weather will be another factor certainly to weigh.

But I am cheering for him and his connections.

[Man o Taz]

This is an absolute travesty...

Now Cairo Prince is gone. Mr. Speaker, who was brilliant on Saturday, will not be going as his entry in Saturday's race at all made clear.

So, I am adding Commanding Curve. Intense Holiday who I have considered multiple times and not added will likely win it, but Commanding Curve has Churchill Downs experience and has done well...so I hope he makes it in. If not - I'll go with a top 11.

Derby point totals follow pedigree, three year old stakes races in bold...

1. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase by Mr. Prospector's Not For Love) 150

G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
California Cup Derby, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
King Glorious Stakes, 7 furlong, cushion track
Graduation Stakes, 5 1/2 furlongs, polytrack

2.Wicked Strong (Hard Spun and Moyne Abbey by Charismatic) 104

G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs, dirt
9th G2 Holy Bull Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
3rd G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs, dirt

3. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 42

4th Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
2nd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
3rd G3 Iroquois, 8.5 furlongs, dirt

4. Samraat (Noble Causeway and Little Indian Girl by Indian Charlie) 100

2nd G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
Damon Runyon Stakes, 8 furlongs, dirt

5. Vicar's In Trouble (Into Mischief and Vibrant by Vicar) 120

G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
4th G2 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G3 Lecomte Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt

6. Hoppertunity (Any Given Saturday and Refugee by Unaccounted For) 93

2nd G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt

7. Candy Boy (Candy Ride and She's and Eleven by In Excess) 30

3rd G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Robert Lewis, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
2nd G1 Cash Call Futurity, 8.5 furlongs, cushion track

8. Wildcat Red (D'Wildcat and Racene by Miner's Mark) 90

2nd G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
G2 Hutcheson Stakes, 7 furlongs, dirt
2nd Gulfstream Park Derby, 8 furlongs, dirt
2nd Juvenile Sprint, 5 1/2 furlongs, dirt

9. General a Rod (Roman Ruler and Dynamite Eyes by Dynaformer) 40

G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
2nd G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
Gulfstream Park Derby, 8 furlongs, dirt

10. Commanding Curve (Master Command (by A.P. Indy) and Mother by Lionhearted) 20

3rd G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
6th G2 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs, dirt

11.  Ring Weekend (Tapit and Free The Magic by Cryptoclearance) 50

2nd Calder Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs, dirt

12. Ride On Curlin (Curlin and Magical Ride by Storm Cat) 55

2nd G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, dirt
3rd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs, dirt
3rd Street Sense, 8 furlongs, dirt
3rd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs, dirt
4th G3 Iroquois, 8.5 furlongs, dirt

[Man o Taz]

Well, from my original derby list...from December 24th...

I have only one of the original 12 making the gate...and 2 of the original 15...including honorable mentions.

6 of the 15 did not even start in 2014 yet.

Unfortunately, one is deceased.

One is retired.

Well, we have been unable to lure Matt Converse here to offer his suggestions, so I'll steal his angle with MOT's Derby Dozen. I figure MOT's Derby Dozen is a lesser facsimile of Matt's Derby Dozen. (SMILE)

And you do not have to wait for the countdown.

1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull)

He carried six pounds more than the Honor Code and lost by a nose in the Remsen Stakes at 9 furlongs. I always give a lot of credit to horses that can win or compete at 9 furlongs as a two year old. His breeding is a shade below Honor Code being a grandson of Empire Maker and Holy Bull. I like this horse and hope he can carry is excellence into the three year old season. This could be Mr. McLaughlin's best shot at a Kentucky Derby win. Owned by

Next race: Jan. 25 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. It would be nice to see a grandson enter and win it.

2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat)

It is hard to imagine a horse more regally bred than Honor Code. Who know - after the long wait - Mr. McGaughey may have lightning strike twice. He won the Remsen. He was second in the Champagne against Havana who many rank as the top two year old this year so he is certainly one to watch.

Next race: Feb. 22 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.   

3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat)

Shared Belief has done everything right in his three starts. He is the only G1 winning two year old with multiple graded stakes wins also having taken the G3 Hollywood Preview Stakes in addition to the Hollywood Futurity. His 106 BSF leads his generation - at least as far as graded stakes winners go. The big question mark is how he will fare on dirt, but Mr. Hollendorfer's barn has shown it knows how to get a horse ready for dirt and travel so he is one to watch. The Robert Lewis and the Santa Anita Derby as next on the card. 

Next race: Feb. 8 Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park.

4. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere)

His stable mate has shown himself to be dynamic. He has two stakes wins including a G1 win in the Del Mar Futurity and has run well on dirt. The biggest question I see with him is whether or not he is moving forward or peaked with his win at Del Mar. If he moves forward, this son of Bertrando is the one to watch.

Next race: Jan. 25 California Cup Derby at Santa Anita Park.

5. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man)

His promising sire, a son of Unbridled Song, finished second in the 2009 Belmont Stakes and suffered a career ending injury so he should be able to get the distance. Havana has been impressive winning his debut at Saratoga and then the G1 Champagne Stakes over Honor Code and Strong Mandate. Then he finished a close second to New Year's Day having a miserable trip in the BC Juvenile.

Next race: Jan. 25 G3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

6. New Year's Day (Street Cry and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union)

This BC Juvenile winner beat a decent field of G1 winning horses in his first stakes effort. Well, the last horse to break the BC Juvenile jinx was a son of Street Cry, so who knows?

Next race: Feb. 8 Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park.

7. Strong Mandate ( Tiznow and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister)

This G1 winning Hopeful Stakes winner who finished third in the BC Juvenile and 7th in the Champagne Stakes is a son of Tiznow. If all goes as planned this could be Mr. Lukas's next Triple Crown race winner.

Next race: Feb. 17 G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park

8. Bond Holder (Mineshaft and Cielo Girl by Conquistador Cielo)

Next race: San Felipe/Robert Lewis?

Winner of the G1 Front Runner Stakes at Santa Anita he finished a disappointing 4th in the BC Juvenile and the Hollywood Futurity.

Next race: Feb. 8 Robert B. Lewis Stakes or San Felipe

9. Lunarwarfare (War Pass and Lunar Star by Silver Ghost)

Next race: Unknown.

Third in the Hopeful Stakes he has been recovering from injury I believe. Hopefully he returns to form at 3.

10. Tap It Rich (Tapit and Gold Canyon by Mr. Prospector)

Next race: Unknown.

He's young. He has been asked to do a lot coming off of his maiden win. He finished 5th and 9th in his G1 starts in the BC Juvenile and the Hollywood Futurity. He would not be there if his trainer did not believe in his ability. He did break his maiden on dirt. It is just a question of weather his racing quality lives up to his breeding quality.

11. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio)

Next race: Unknown.

This winner of the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club broke his maiden in a graded stakes over the Churchill Downs surface. The second of two Tapit son's on the list.

12. Corfu (Malibu Moon and Fashion Cat by Forest Wildcat)

Next race: Unknown.

I have always liked this winner of the G2 Saratoga Special. I hope he can find his bearings as a three year old.

Honorable Mentions:

We Miss Artie (Artie Schiller and Athena's Gift by Fusaichi Pegasus)

Next race: Unknown.

This winner of the G1 Breeder's Futurity while possessing turf pedigree on top did finish second to Strong Mandate on the dirt at Belmont Park. On the bottom he certainly has the distance pedigree. While he was disappointing in the BC Juvenile finishing seventh hopefully he can move forward. If his form holds he could be another Dullahan who finished third in the Kentucky Derby.

Laddie Boy (War Pass and Lil's Lassie by Lil's Lad)

Next race: Unknown.

Another War Pass son. I happen to love this Cherokee Run grandsons. I would have thought by the names on the dam's side that Lil E. Tee was in the pedigree but instead its Preakness Stakes winner Pine Bluff on the bottom. His finish second place in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club gets him here.

Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro and Pretty Smart by Beau Genius)

Next race: Jan. 11 Sham Stakes Santa Anita Park.

A friend tells me that he looks spectacular in Mr. Baffert's barn. Looking forward to seeing him compete in his first stakes race.

[Dusty]

  For the list - I have many of the same but in different order = I really like Wildcat Red - he seems to just try so hard - why do have Candy Boy above him>? Just asking

[Man o Taz]

A couple of reasons...

The biggest reason is that I think Wildcat Red may have peaked already. I know he let his pursuers get away with dawdling fractions which enabled Constitution to close on the inside rail and pass him at the wire - but was that because he was having an off day - because his connections feared he might be distance challenged - is distance challenged or just because he could have gone faster and opted to try and save as much gas in the tank for the closing kick? So, I think we may have seen Wildcat Red's best. I saw his Fountain of Youth performance in person so I was impressed with him and I understand that Constitution a top horse - but Constitution was never on my Derby list.

Another major concern I have is the fact that he has never won or even raced outside Gulfstream Park.

And then there is the Derby pace which is likely to be heavy on early speed which could burn him out.

Finally, there is his breeding - he may be a miler or a sprinter...I am just not certain he's a nine or ten furlong horse.

Candy Boy, on the other hand, I do not think I have seen his best yet - so I believe he has more of a potential upside.

He finished second to a horse which I believe is the best of the three year old crop - Shared Belief - in the Cash Call Futurity and third to the Kentucky Derby favorite.

I know his last race was lackluster...BUT...he had a long lay off like Cairo Prince who I had highly placed on my board. I know a third place performance without excuses other than the lay off is not the way you want to enter a 10 furlong, 20 horse race but I think he's definitely a really good horse with that potential.

His sire won at distances from 6 to10 furlongs - so I think that is another big up side.

And he has raced at three tracks - granted all California based...but he has at least shown that he can carry his ability from track to track.

But you make one good point with regard to Wildcat Red which may be more important than these other issues - his character - he has more experience than Candy Boy (even though they both have run 7 times - I think its the way he has raced) - and he does seem to battle - and having a fighter who may be distance challenged that has finished 1st or 2nd in all of his races vs. a horse that has finished 1st or second in 4 of his races...winning only 2 vs. a horse that has won 4 and finished a close second in his last races vs. a horse that has finished a distant third in his last race...could be the difference. We'll see.

[Man o Taz]

Everybody is back on the Dance with Fate bandwagon since they are pointing there.

I know I defended his dirt pedigree with his second place finish to Bond Holder in the G1 Frontrunner Stakes, but I truly wonder if this is the right move for him. 

I really do not think that dirt will be the problem for him. After all, with that second place finish there, but one has to believe what his connections are saying - that dirt is not his best surface.

The problem I have with him is the three week turn around.

His connections did not seem to have any problem with trying him again on dirt since they mentioned the Preakness has his probable next start after the Bluegrass Stakes.

I think this would have been his best option - five weeks rest...since he has never won off of three weeks rest - granted he came in second - and he is getting older, bigger, stronger, more mature so maybe it will not make a difference.

But with his first cross country plane ride being the Bluegrass Stakes, and then shipping him back to California, and deciding to change plans and enter the Derby picture (probably seeing horses like Constitution and Cairo Prince dropping out) I think is not the best situation for him...

Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen
April 21, 2014
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/04/21/derby-dozen-april-21-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx
1. California Chrome
2. Hoppertunity
3. Danza
4. Wicked Strong
5. General a Rod
6. Intense Holiday
7. Ride On Curlin
8. Samraat (which I learned means Emperor)
9. Dance with Fate
10. Candy Boy
11. Vicar's In Trouble
12. Medal Count

[Senator L]

My nickel says (they've abolished the penny in Canada) this is how I see them top 10.
#1 California Chrome: The cream rises to the top. It seemed it took this guy a while to get to the top, but there aren't many left from the two year old stars. Even if there were, I doubt many would have shined as brightly as this guy does. The last time he was beat was last year! Since then, he has won 4 in a row by a combined 24 ¼ lengths. Who has he beaten? He has beaten the clock. He has taken times, stomped on them and smashed them to smithereens. The 2nd fastest Santa Anita Derby ever and he was being geared down the last 100 yards. Looks like a mortal lock, a bet the house type, but they still have to run the race. CC has broken slow twice; he could get bumped around, get a bad ride etc., things happen in the derby. My biggest fear is going wide. When jockeys are on the best horse, they always ride wide to stay out of trouble. Is he good enough to go 4 wide for a  mile and a ¼ ? If he wins the derby for sure he'll win all 3. NBC is going to show the connections of owner and trainers and people are going to cry in their mint juleps! Good luck California Chrome it's yours for the taking.
#2 Wildcat Red: the little horse that could with Northern Dancer blood in him running on his 50th anniversary. When I started looking for my derby horse most had been injured or been finishing up the track, not this guy. A sprinters pedigree and heart of a champion and winning right from the get go. Getting a class test at the beginning of the year, and at a mile he battled General A Rod all around the track. What a race! He came up a head short though. I was looking forward to him taking on Cairo Prince but it wasn't meant to be, he had a fever and had to scratch. So he found another stakes the G3 Hutcheseon turning back in distance, it was cake walk. On to the FOY, where he would be stretching out, and going around two turns for the 1st time.  Another epic battle ensued, with General A Rod all the way around. He wouldn't let him pass and won the race by a head. Next up the FL Derby and still the skeptics don't think he'll get the distance. Another epic battle all the way around. This time it was won by the highly talented Constitution by a ½ length and another length and a bit back to General A Rod. The race reminded me of the 1997 SA Derby with Free House, Silver Charm and the great filly Serrena's Song. The most important part of Wildcat Red is he always gives his all. Good luck.
#3 General A Rod: Well I love Wildcat Red and this guy has danced every dance with him. A 1st , 2nd and a 3rd. The two losses were a combined long length in half. He has some Dynaformer in him on the bottom  Joel Rosario and Mike Maker are nice connections too! I think he'll improve off the FL derby. Good luck.
#4 Samraat:  6 510 Bred in NY? He could be bred in the Philippines for all I care. 6 510 as for slow times, it was a crappy winter. How are you going to run fast when it's freezing cold? I liked his sire Noble Causeway he was a useful sort. I think he'll thrive in the warmer weather. I expect another good effort.  6 510 Good luck!
#5 Uncle Sigh: A work in progress but I think the blinkers are really going to help. I like his trainer Gary Contessa fly's under the radar nationally, but very good. Wounded Warrior Stables. Good luck
#6 Danza: Loved his last race looked like he'll relish a 1 ¼. Sounds like Danzig. Good luck
#7 Wicked Strong: Like his breeding and connections but doesn't win enough for me. Good luck.
#8 Candy Boy: Kinda like above. I wish he would have shown up more for the SA Derby. Was wide and got shoved out by Hopportunity but still finished flat. Good luck
#9 Hopportunity: Great connections and been busy running this year. 5 210 Awesome breeding I just don't think he is fast enough IMO. Good luck
#10 Dance With Fate: Nice record 8 330 and one of those 2nds was on dirt! Going to be well bet because of his record and his name has "fate" in it. Good luck

[Man o Taz]

Kentucky Derby.com Expert Picks
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wagering/expert-picks

1. California Chrome
2. Hoppertunity
3. Intense Holliday
4. Ride On Curlin
5. Wicked Strong and Samraat (tie)

Interesting that Ride On Curlin is placed so high.

I think its interesting to look at the major two year old in the money finishes in top races...and see how many of those horses are left.

G1 Hopeful Stakes
1. Strong Mandate
2. Casiguapo
3. Lunarwarfare

G1 Del Mar Futurity
1. Tamarando
2. Dance With Fate
3. Can The Man

G1 Frontrunner Stakes
1. Bond Holder
2. Dance With Fate
3. Tamarando

G1 Champagne Stakes
1. Havana
2. Honor Code
3. Ride On Curlin

G1 Breeders Futurity
1. We Miss Artie
2. Smarty's Echo
3. Arctic Slope

G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile
1. New Year's Day
2. Havana
3. Strong Mandate

G2 Remsen Stakes
1. Honor Code
2. Cairo Prince
3. Wicked Strong

G1 Cash Call Futurity
1. Shared Belief
2. Candy Boy
3. Tamarando

I don't know if I left any others out...but we see four horses that will likely enter the gate - none of them race winners - and 13 others who will not be in the gate.

[Man o Taz]

Kentucky Derby Odds
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2038386-kentucky-derby-2014-contenders-california-chrome-top-pick-with-field-almost-set
Horse   Odds
California Chrome   2-1
Wicked Strong   8-1
Danza   8-1
Vicars In Trouble   10-1
Cairo Prince   14-1
Hoppertunity   14-1
Intense Holiday   20-1
Wildcat Red   16-1
Samraat   20-1
Tapiture   20-1

NYT Top Ten List from 4/13/14
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/14/sports/the-kentucky-derby-dartboard-week-3.html
1. California Chrome
2. Wicked Strong
3. Ride on Curlin
4. Ring Weekend
5. General a Rod
6. Wildcat Red
7. Cairo Prince
8. Samraat
9. Constitution
10. Hopperunity

Top 20 Kentucky Derby Picks
http://www.whas11.com/home/Roedemeier-Top-20-Derby-picks---April-14-2014-255264391.html
April 14, 2014
1. California Chrome
2. Constitution
3. Samraat
4. Hopperunity
5. Wicked Strong
6. Ride on Curlin
7. Intense Holiday
8. General a Rod
9. Tapiture
10. Vicar's In Trouble
11. Danza
12. Chitu
13. Midnight Hawk
14. Candy Boy
15. Ring Weekend
16. Dance With Fate
17. We Miss Artie
18. Uncle Sigh
19. Medal Count
20. Cairo Prince

Top Kentucky Derby Contenders
http://moneyonthenose.blogspot.com/2014/04/4-23-2014-top-kentucky-derby-contenders.html
1. California Chrome
2. Hoppertunity
3. Danza
4. Samraat
5. Wildcat Red