Winter Challenge Stakes (Entries)

[CA_Chrome]

Any guess on what the Beyer number will be?

Well, it's Los Alamitos, so that automatically will make the number lower than if the same race was run at Santa Anita, Del Mar, or one of the other traditional thoroughbred tracks.

(Forgive me, but I'm not a fan of speed figures and think they have about as much legitimacy as dosage.)

[stark]

Heard the TVG guys talking about breaking the track record......

Is that really worth mentioning, 4/5ths off of Uncle Lino at a track that's only been open for 3 years?

How many races have even been run at 1 1/16th?  just curious.

[curtis]

Well, it's Los Alamitos, so that automatically will make the number lower than if the same race was run at Santa Anita, Del Mar, or one of the other traditional thoroughbred tracks.

(Forgive me, but I'm not a fan of speed figures and think they have about as much legitimacy as dosage.)

While I think that how a horse runs fast is more important than how fast a horse runs, speed figures are a useful tool.  This is especially true when trying to give context to where a horse might belong.  The fact Mohaymen stalled in the mid 90 range from about this time last year through the Fountain of Youth, pretty much told me he wasn't a win threat in the Derby.  The race having been run at Los Alamitos shouldn't have any bearing on the BSF per se.  It has more to do with how the track was playing.  Chrome is a fast horse and had a huge class edge and he ran accordingly.  Victor didn't ride him out aggressively but when you win for fun, I guess, who cares?

[curtis]

Heard the TVG guys talking about breaking the track record......

Is that really worth mentioning, 4/5ths off of Uncle Lino at a track that's only been open for 3 years?

How many races have even been run at 1 1/16th?  just curious.

Track records are an oddity.  They're fun to talk about but they don't really mean that much in the scheme of things unless we're talking about a horse like Secretariat who at one time held four track records, two of them world records.  When the distance is rarely run at all and even more rarely by top horses, it is what it is.  Usually track records are set when the track is souped up to a degree.  I remember once upon a time the track record for 6f at Santa Anita was held by a claimer named Pleasure Shack who set it on a sealed sloppy track.  Nowadays we'd call it wet fast but that designation didn't exist then.  The last two world records for 6.5f were set at EMD.  I'll send you the profit on Chromie's $2.00 win bet if you can name the two horses.

[stark]

I keep saying chinook pass was one of the fastest horses I've ever seen?

[stark]

Any guess on what the Beyer number will be?

10   California Chrome         104
4   Point Piper               84
9   Papacoolpapacool            79

[stark]

FWIW
the 2,3,8 would have paid over $500 to win!

[CA_Chrome]

While I think that how a horse runs fast is more important than how fast a horse runs, speed figures are a useful tool.  This is especially true when trying to give context to where a horse might belong.  The fact Mohaymen stalled in the mid 90 range from about this time last year through the Fountain of Youth, pretty much told me he wasn't a win threat in the Derby.  The race having been run at Los Alamitos shouldn't have any bearing on the BSF per se.  It has more to do with how the track was playing.  Chrome is a fast horse and had a huge class edge and he ran accordingly.  Victor didn't ride him out aggressively but when you win for fun, I guess, who cares?

Hi Curtis. See what I mean about speed figures? Chrome was given a 104 Beyer for the Winter Challenge even though he ran fast and won by 12. Those who have a lot of faith in such numbers would say Chrome regressed by 15 points from the Breeders Cup Classic, but that's obviously nonsense. I'm glad I predicted it would be a low number instead of waiting until after it was published to comment. The Winter Challenge was an ungraded stakes on a track not among the tops in the sport, and against lower class horses. No way in heck it would receive a big Beyer even if Chrome sprouted wings and won in 30 seconds.

Some people also say the BCC was Chrome's best race because he was assigned his highest Beyer of 119, but the BCC was not his best race. The Dubai World Cup was by far his best race. He won in track record time with his saddle slipped over his hips. But, of course, the DWC was not rated by Beyer, so there's no artificial ratings number for it. I wanted to add this photo (courtesy Taylor Made Stallions) of Chrome winning the DWC as a reminder of just what an amazing performance that was by both Chrome and Victor:

[stark]

Just curious what were Pointpiper and Papacool last couple of Beyer numbers leading up to this, better or worse than the  84/79s they got assigned?

[peeptoad]

Just curious what were Pointpiper and Papacool last couple of Beyer numbers leading up to this, better or worse than the  84/79s they got assigned?

Point Piper:
10/4 BEL: 94
8/14 EMD: 103
The last BSF lower than 90 that PP ran was in July of 2015 on the turf, however he could be regressing off the monster 103 when he set the record in the Longacres Mile 8/14
Edit: this doesn't include his Dirt Mile since I spaced and was getting ready for work at the,same time.

I don't have Papacoolpapacool's #s on hand...

[CA_Chrome]

he could be regressing off the monster 103

Or speed figures actually could be what I believe them to be...nonsense. Point Piper just ran a huge effort to be second to California Chrome, for heaven's sake. Please don't take that effort away from Piper due to subjective speed figures.

[peeptoad]

Or speed figures actually could be what I believe them to be...nonsense. Point Piper just ran a huge effort to be second to California Chrome, for heaven's sake. Please don't take that effort away from Piper due to subjective speed figures.

I'm sorry you feel that they're nonsense. I absolutely do not believe that and believe that there is some validity in them, but they cannot be taken at face value.

No one is taking anything away from Point Piper except for you, since you are the person who feels the fig assigned is an insult.
The person (in this case Beyer) who created the fig neither insulted the horse nor his fans... he simply made an objective fig based on how fast Point Piper ran the race at the distance at Los Al last Saturday.

[peeptoad]

Hi Curtis. See what I mean about speed figures? Chrome was given a 104 Beyer for the Winter Challenge even though he ran fast and won by 12. Those who have a lot of faith in such numbers would say Chrome regressed by 15 points from the Breeders Cup Classic, but that's obviously nonsense. I'm glad I predicted it would be a low number instead of waiting until after it was published to comment. The Winter Challenge was an ungraded stakes on a track not among the tops in the sport, and against lower class horses. No way in heck it would receive a big Beyer even if Chrome sprouted wings and won in 30 seconds.

Some people also say the BCC was Chrome's best race because he was assigned his highest Beyer of 119, but the BCC was not his best race. The Dubai World Cup was by far his best race. He won in track record time with his saddle slipped over his hips. But, of course, the DWC was not rated by Beyer, so there's no artificial ratings number for it. I wanted to add this photo (courtesy Taylor Made Stallions) of Chrome winning the DWC as a reminder of just what an amazing performance that was by both Chrome and Victor:

From this post I can objectively state that you know nothing about how (BSF) speed figures are developed. The mere fact that you are talking offense at the number assigned is complete and utter proof of this. They have nothing to do with personal opinion or the "class" of the race and they do not take trip, traffic trouble, or the relative ease with which a horse wins a race into account. This last point is particularly attributable to the Winter Challenge.

[curtis]

From this post I can objectively state that you know nothing about how (BSF) speed figures are developed. The mere fact that you are talking offense at the number assigned is complete and utter proof of this. They have nothing to do with personal opinion or the "class" of the race and they do not take trip, traffic trouble, or the relative ease with which a horse wins a race into account. This last point is particularly attributable to the Winter Challenge.

To be fair, I think CA Chrome is more worried about Chromie's Wikipedia page than how speed figures are derived.😉  For the record, I guessed that Chromie ran a 106 on Saturday, so I don't think 104 is that out of line and with no pace to set him up, it figures Point Piper would have regressed. The track was hard as a rock. The Baffert broke his maiden in 8 and change and didn't Dorf have a CA bred 2yo go 35 and change for a mile?  It's not like Chromie's fast race was an aberration.  Also, California Chrome ran a far better race in the BCC. He was chased early by top horses and trounced all but one.  Saturday's race was akin to a future HOF MLB player hitting a tape measure HR while on a rehab assignment in Single A. Fun to watch but......  I know I'm preaching to the choir Peep.

[curtis]

I keep saying chinook pass was one of the fastest horses I've ever seen?

You're right Chinook Pass was, oddly he isn't either one of the horses, though you did get one of them, so I'm not out a dime.😉  The legendary duo of Sabertooth and I Keep Saying are the last two horses to own the world record for 6.5f. This is not meant to disparage either horse but their trainer, Jim Penney didn't drop either one in the BC Sprint those years either.