And the 3 year old Eclipse Awards Go To.....

Started by Zenyatta, November 02, 2013, 06:21:44 PM

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Zenyatta

Beholder and Will Take Charge.

Vic in Chicago

Quote from: Zenyatta on November 02, 2013, 06:21:44 PM
Beholder and Will Take Charge.

Yes.
Giant Oak - The Pride Of Chicago!

WarBiscuit

Quote from: Vic in Chicago on November 02, 2013, 08:52:07 PM
Quote from: Zenyatta on November 02, 2013, 06:21:44 PM
Beholder and Will Take Charge.

Yes.

Seems like it has to be these two.  I'm really impressed with Will Take Charge.  What a gutsy and courageous
horse, and I'm already looking forward to his 4yo season.

Considering his early season success, if Orb wound up blistering his opponents in the Cigar Mile, would he still have
a chance as 3yo Eclipse winner?

WarBiscuit


Zenyatta

Quote from: WarBiscuit on November 03, 2013, 10:40:28 AM
Quote from: Vic in Chicago on November 02, 2013, 08:52:07 PM
Quote from: Zenyatta on November 02, 2013, 06:21:44 PM
Beholder and Will Take Charge.

Yes.

Seems like it has to be these two.  I'm really impressed with Will Take Charge.  What a gutsy and courageous
horse, and I'm already looking forward to his 4yo season.

Considering his early season success, if Orb wound up blistering his opponents in the Cigar Mile, would he still have
a chance as 3yo Eclipse winner?

WarBiscuit

By default, as Derby winner, he'll get a nomination, but with the clunkers he threw in his last few races, I don't see even a resurgence in the Cigar Mile as being a reason for his being the Eclipse Award winner. But then, stranger things have happened!

Dave in TJ Mex

Quote from: Zenyatta on November 03, 2013, 11:20:51 AM
Quote from: WarBiscuit on November 03, 2013, 10:40:28 AM
Quote from: Vic in Chicago on November 02, 2013, 08:52:07 PM
Quote from: Zenyatta on November 02, 2013, 06:21:44 PM
Beholder and Will Take Charge.

Yes.

Seems like it has to be these two.  I'm really impressed with Will Take Charge.  What a gutsy and courageous
horse, and I'm already looking forward to his 4yo season.

Considering his early season success, if Orb wound up blistering his opponents in the Cigar Mile, would he still have
a chance as 3yo Eclipse winner?

WarBiscuit

By default, as Derby winner, he'll get a nomination, but with the clunkers he threw in his last few races, I don't see even a resurgence in the Cigar Mile as being a reason for his being the Eclipse Award winner. But then, stranger things have happened!

Like remember back in 2011 when, for one week in January, Giant Oak was the top-ranked thoroughbred in the world?!    :OMG:

Now THAT was strange! 

Vic in Chicago

Quote from: Dave in TJ Mex on November 03, 2013, 12:32:32 PM
Like remember back in 2011 when, for one week in January, Giant Oak was the top-ranked thoroughbred in the world?!    :OMG:

Now THAT was strange!

STRANGE??  That one week he was the best thoroughbred in the world!!



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Giant Oak - The Pride Of Chicago!

jjacks1

Princess of Sylmar and Will Take Charge.  :)
Just another sh*tty day in Paradise

peeptoad

Probably Will Take Charge... Orb is the only other 3yo male close and he's not done enough 2nd half of the year.
Either Beholder or Princess would be fine by me (like I matter). I can understand arguments for both and have no real opinion beyond that.

Man o Taz

#9
As I noted on the other thread, if Orb wins the Cigar Mile he gets the nod IMHO.

Anything less than a win and it goes to Will Take Charge.

Other than the Breeders Cup Classic, for three year olds the top performance is measured by how you do in the Triple Crown races.

Orb won the Kentucky Derby which is the equivalent of the Breeders Cup Classic for three year olds beating Will Take Charge who finished 8th.
In the Preakness Stakes, he again defeated Will Take Charge finishing 4th ahead of WTC who finished 7th.
In the Belmont Stakes, he again defeated Will Take Charge finishing 3rd. WTC finished 10th.

In the top three year old races - the TC races WTC was a no show while Orb showed up and ran respectable races.

Now, do not get me wrong - I like Will Take Charge a lot.

In the second half of the year he has been impressive.

He bested Orb in the Travers Stakes - his only race where he finished ahead of him all year. And Orb still finished a respectable 3rd.

Then Orb opts for a race against older horses in the Jockey Club Gold Cup...while Will Take Charge opts for a lesser challenge against a field include a single stakes winning three year old in the Pennsylvania Derby.

Orb finishes his worst of all (8th) his races all year talking on older males and his connections decide that they will give him a pass on the BC Classic.

Will Take Charge finishes second in a hard fought stretch battle in the BC Classic.

Examining the entire year's efforts...

Will Take Charge is 10-4-2-0 overall but in graded stakes races he is 9-3-2-0. And in G1 races he is 5-1-1-0 with a solitary win.
Orb on the other hand is 8-4-0-2 overall but in graded stakes races he is 7-3-0-2. And in G1 races he is 6-2-0-2 with two wins.

My point is that I give Will Take Charge the edge right now as many of you suggest, but the notion that a win in the second half of the year in the Cigar Mile by Orb should be meaningless I since believe it ignores a substantial edge for Orb who would then have 3 G1 wins - 66% more than WTC - a final overall record of 9-5-0-2 and a graded stakes record of 8-4-0-2  which would show the following:

Orb wins 50% of his graded takes races.
Will Take Charge wins 33%% of his graded stakes races.
Orb wins %42% of his G1 races he runs in.
Will Take Charge wins 20% of his G1 races he runs in.
Orb finishes in the money in 75% of his stakes races.
Will Take Charge finishes in the money in 55% of his stakes races.
 
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Zenyatta

Considering he retired sound, Orb's connections must have weighed his lackluster efforts of late against the probability of getting another G1 win (I would have entered him in the Clark), and decided to simply retire him and not risk his stallion value.

Man o Taz

Quote from: Zenyatta on November 05, 2013, 08:24:22 PM
Considering he retired sound, Orb's connections must have weighed his lackluster efforts of late against the probability of getting another G1 win (I would have entered him in the Clark), and decided to simply retire him and not risk his stallion value.

A good possibility. The Clark is an interesting choice since that was the scene of his last win. I liked the Cigar Mile because I hope to be there.
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Kennedy

I'm actually hoping that goldencents can win the cigar Mile and take this award because I personally find Will Take charge to be an option that is hard to accept. However Orb is only marginally more palatable. Goldencents would be a good selection in my opinion if he added the Cigar Mile to his CV.

Zenyatta

Quote from: Kennedy on November 07, 2013, 06:56:53 PM
I'm actually hoping that goldencents can win the cigar Mile and take this award because I personally find Will Take charge to be an option that is hard to accept. However Orb is only marginally more palatable. Goldencents would be a good selection in my opinion if he added the Cigar Mile to his CV.

From your lips to God's ears. I heard Goldencents ' connections are going to the Cigar Mile. At least I did hear O'Neill say he was considering it.

Man o Taz

Agreed...

Was hoping Cross Traffic would enter the race but it does not seem like he is considering it any longer.

But now Verrazano is a possibility along with Alpha, Capo Bastone and Forty Tales.

So that might be a nice field with Groupie and Goldencents...4 multiple G1 winners and 5 G1 winners...

"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

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