Coaching Club American Oaks (G1)

[Man o Taz]

She can rate, but if you keep pressure on her from behind, force her wide, box her in, there are any number of tactics that can be employed to get her off her game if there is the competition to do it. Unfortunately, unless she enters the PA Derby, I do not see it happening this year unless Beholder points to the Distaff instead of the Classic and Songbird's connections relent and go there.

[Senator L]

She'll stay in her division this year they seem to be pretty adamant about it.
I would be shocked if she doesn't go in the Distaff 

[Man o Taz]

I would be too. But I also think there is a little bit of wiggle room for her taking on the three year olds males in the PA Derby if she delivers a top performance as expected in the Alabama Stakes.

[curtis]

The problem with your plan is that she can rate off the lead if she wants.
I think the only question is the distance.
She sure is fun to watch though

So could Dr. Fager (watch the 1968 Californian), American Pharoah, Nyquist, etc.  It doesn't always work out.  Officer actually comes to mind.  He looked push button sitting off of horses and then seemingly cantering home--on both coasts.  The thought was always that Victor never even asked him and how fast could he go if he were asked?  Then he started getting trips that made him uncomfortable and suddenly he wasn't just cantering.  Taz is right in that it will probably take multiple horses unless one materializes that can dog her and then finish the deed like Stellar Wind did against Beholder.  She's been tested twice for brief periods; by Pretty 'N' Cool in the Del Mar Debutante and by Carina Mia in the CCA Oaks so she isn't going to just fold but I still want to see a little more evidence before she is anointed the greatest female in the land.  She seems to have the most scope among the three-year-old fillies.  That's all I know right now.

[Man o Taz]

And maybe among the 3 year old males.

But right now I rate her the 3rd best filly behind Beholder and Stellar Wind and that is only until the Beverly D (though it looks like the Lake Placid will be next on her schedule). If Catch A Glimpse should win that race impressively, I would give her the edge over Songbird until the Alabama and maybe after it depending who shows up in the Alabama.

[BaroqueAgain1]

I might even give Catch a Glimpse the 'edge' now, since she's won more races so far this year, defeated some touted Euros in the Belmont Invitational, and beat males in the Penn Mile.

[curtis]

And maybe among the 3 year old males.

But right now I rate her the 3rd best filly behind Beholder and Stellar Wind and that is only until the Beverly D (though it looks like the Lake Placid will be next on her schedule). If Catch A Glimpse should win that race impressively, I would give her the edge over Songbird until the Alabama and maybe after it depending who shows up in the Alabama.

I respect Catch A Glimpse but as I said before the only true way to compare them is for them to race.  In 1981, Ron McAnally wanted to prove John Henry was the best horse out there.  Only problem was, Flying Paster won every race for older horses at Santa Anita--San Carlos, San Pasqual and San Antonio--leading up to the Santa Anita Handicap.  So McAnally entered John Henry in the Big 'Cap, carried 128 to Paster's 130 and beat him fair and square.  The debate was effectively over.  In a perfect world, Songbird and Catch A Glimpse would meet once on dirt and once on turf, but we don't live in a perfect world.  There is no reason to take a horse out of their element when races now are deemed so precious.  I don't care what Songbird beats if she wins the Alabama, prestige wise there is no comparison between the Alabama and the Lake Placid.  I also don't think that Songbird has to win out to get the award.

[Man o Taz]

Well, it is easier with Catch A Glimpse scrapping plans to enter the Beverly D because if she secured wins in the Beverly D, Flower Bowl, and BC Turf I do not think there would be any question who the top 3 year old female should be. Her skipping the Beverly D for the Lake Placid raises question marks. But, should she still win the Flower Bowl and the BC Turf a strong case could be made for her against Songbird for top 3 year old female even if she were to win the BC Distaff.

1 win against open company in a championship level race
1win against older females on turf
1 win against 3 year old males on turf 

Granted only 3 G1 wins to Songbirds likely 5 should she win out, but if Beholder goes in the BC Classic, Songbird would only have Stellar Wind who is formidable, but does not carry the stature of Beholder. And 3 times stepping up in class would be a strong case. I just like to argue for the turf horses since I think they get less respect. I feel the same way often about the sprinters. They do not get the same respect as the routers.

[curtis]

Well, it is easier with Catch A Glimpse scrapping plans to enter the Beverly D because if she secured wins in the Beverly D, Flower Bowl, and BC Turf I do not think there would be any question who the top 3 year old female should be. Her skipping the Beverly D for the Lake Placid raises question marks. But, should she still win the Flower Bowl and the BC Turf a strong case could be made for her against Songbird for top 3 year old female even if she were to win the BC Distaff.

1 win against open company in a championship level race
1win against older females on turf
1 win against 3 year old males on turf 

Granted only 3 G1 wins to Songbirds likely 5 should she win out, but if Beholder goes in the BC Classic, Songbird would only have Stellar Wind who is formidable, but does not carry the stature of Beholder. And 3 times stepping up in class would be a strong case. I just like to argue for the turf horses since I think they get less respect. I feel the same way often about the sprinters. They do not get the same respect as the routers.

Stellar Wind is last year's three-year-old filly Eclipse winner so beating her would actually be an achievement and shouldn't be taken for granted.  I hate to bring up the tired Wise Dan argument again, but our best horses don't race on the turf, it's Plan B.  It's always tough to gauge the European horses when they come over because our turf is so vastly different than theirs.  One of the most talented, dynamic horses I've ever seen is Manila and he's all but forgotten and when you bring him up those that do remember him describe him as a nice turf horse.  It's a stigma and I'm not saying it's fair, but we have been moving away from horses running on both surfaces ever since the advent of the Breeder's Cup.  I sure don't see it changing any time soon if at all.

The problem with sprinters are that horses don't route because they can't sprint, it's the other way around.  How many times did Baffert try to get Midnight Lute, Secret Circle, Lord Nelson, etc. to route before he gave up and went all out with them in sprints?  Trust me, had Bayern folded in the Haskell, you would have seen him entered in the BC Sprint.  Once Baffert found out he could beat good horses going two turns, he never looked back.  I think if you switched up and trained either Chromie, Frosted and Beholder for speed--or all three--you would win the BC Sprint with them and if all ran they'd fill out the tri.

[Man o Taz]

Never thought about that regarding sprinters. I  know route racing is more desirable, but I always thought that was for breeding purposes. Never thought that a horse like Frosted could be competitive with a horse like Runhappy. 

Catch A Glimpse did beat some nice quality horses, though in the Belmont Oaks. And Airoforce delivered his best performance since his Kentucky Cup win in the Penn Mile. So she has faced some quality opposition.

I know turf is secondary, but for the BC we do get some quality horses from Europe. I know the surface plays differently, but if Catch A Glimpse were to beat Flintshire in the BC Turf you do not think that would raise eyebrows and force some folks to reflect on the rest of her resume compared to Songbird's? It would make me think twice if I had a vote.

Of course, this is likely much ado because so much would have to happen for Catch A Glimpse to get there, but I like to always hope that the best year long performances will be rewarded and I think Catch A Glimpse has had one heck of a year.