2014 (G1) Travers Stakes

[Man o Taz]

Well, here it comes - the late Summer Derby...

One of entries has already won the early Summer Derby on turf...and that's Mr. Speaker who won the Belmont Derby on July 5th besting G1 Secretariat Stakes winner Adelaide at 10 furlongs.

I have long hoped that Mr. Speaker would receive another chance on dirt. The Gulfstream dirt is peculiar and not to the liking of all dirt horses. If you examine the Holy Bull a number of dirt horses did poorly on that surface and have shown themselves to be top three year olds this year.

Wicked Strong is the most obvious example. He hated Gulfstream finishing in the middle of the pack in two efforts there including the Holy Bull. Returning to the NY circuit he has notched two important wins in the G1 Wood Memorial and the G2 Jim Dandy, both at 9 furlongs.

Mr. Speaker
G1 Belmont Derby, 10 furlongs
G3 Coolmore Lexington Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Palm Beach Stakes, 9 furlongs
G3 Dania Beach Stakes, 8 furlongs

Other entries include:

Bayern
G1 Haskell Invitational, 9 furlongs
G2 Woody Stephens, 7 furlongs
3rd G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd G3 Derby Trial, 8 furlongs

Wicked Strong
G2 Jim Dandy, 9 furlongs
G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
3rd G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs

Tonalist
2nd G2 Jim Dandy, 9 furlongs
G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs
G2 Peter Pan, 9 furlongs

Commanding Curve
4th G2 Jim Dandy, 9 furlongs
2nd Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
3rd Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs

Kid Cruz
3rd G2 Jim Dandy, 9 furlongs
G2 Dwyer Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Easy Goer Stakes, 8 furlongs
Federico Tesio, 8.5 furlongs
Private Terms, 9 furlongs

Coltimus Prime
Prince of Wales Stakes, 9.5 furlongs

V.E. Day
Curlin Stakes, 9 furlongs

Charge Now
2nd Curlin Stakes, 9 furlongs

Ulanbator
3rd G2 Dwyer Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Matt Winn, 8.5 furlongs

Viva Majorca
4th Curlin Stakes

[peeptoad]

Coltimus Prime will not go after a lackluster work over the main...

The field will draw in at 6pm tomorrow (Tuesday) night, and here are the likely starters, per DRF and Bloodhorse:

Bayern (Martin Garcia)
C J's Awesome (Prado)
Charge Now (Junior Alvarado)
Commanding Curve (Shaun Bridgmohan)
Kid Cruz (Irad Ortiz Jr.)
Mr Speaker (Lezcano)
Tonalist (Joel Rosario)
Ulanbator (Hernandez)
V.E. Day (Javier Castellano)
Viva Majorca (Leparoux)
Wicked Strong (Rajiv Maragh)

[Man o Taz]

Nice size field. Thanks for the update.

[Man o Taz]

Well, CJ May be awesome, but I do not know if his horse - C.J.'s Awesome has much of a chance in the Travers.

His breeding may say yes, but he seems to have just come off of a third place finish in an allowance race not at Saratoga, but rather Churchill Downs.

Unlike Golden Ticket who had a second place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby, and also ran in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes before competing in the Travers Stakes, C.J. has no stakes experience.

Mr. McPeak has pulled a rabbit out of the hat before so we'll see if C.J. is entered if he can do it again.

Post Positions will be drawn at 6:30 PM.
http://albany.twcnews.com/content/news/the_spa_spot/the_spa_spot/762152/post-positions-drawn-tuesday-for-travers-stakes/

And this article suggests that C.J. may not be entered...and only a field of 10 will contest it.
http://isportsweb.com/2014/08/18/horse-racing-field-10-expected-2014-travers-stakes/

[peeptoad]

No CJ. A field of ten was drawn last night:

1 Commanding Curve
2 Bayern
3 Charge Now
4 VE Day
5 Viva Majorca
6 Tonalist
7 Wicked Strong
8 Kid Cruz
9 Ulanbator
10 Mr Speaker

[Man o Taz]

Well, so long as Mr. Speaker closes and is not close to the pace his post position should not be a problem.

Hopefully CJ can find a better spot.

It will be interesting to see how the race develops...

Will Bayern be given an uncontested lead as he was in the Haskell?

Will Tonalist try to take them gate to wire as he did in the Peter Pan, or challenge Bayern early.

Will a slow pace do Mr. Speaker in?

Will Wicked Strong be the one to contest the pace with Bayern having been conditioned more over the track than Bayern?

Can Kid Criz show himself to be among the elite three year olds in a route race finishing first or second?

Is Commanding Curve another Golden Soul or something else? On that subject, when is the last time that the second place finisher in the Kentucky Derby won a post-Derby stakes race?

2013 - Golden Soul - best finish since Derby 3rd place in an allowance race
2012 - Bodemeister - retired
2011 - Nehro - won an allowance race at 4, and placed in Pimlico Special
2010 - Ice Box - 3rd in an alowance at 4
2009 - Pioneer of the Nile - retired after injury in Preakness Stakes
2008 - Eight Belles
2007 - Hard Spun - third in the Belmont Stakes, second in the Haskell, won the Kings Bishop...so seven years since the 2nd place finisher in the Derby won or finished in the money in another stakes race as a three year old.

Is there someone else in the field who can upset the top 4?

[afleetphil]

I like Wicked Strong. Likes the track, improving and has an edge about him.

[peeptoad]

It's hard to see any of these going with Bayern early, although Wicked Strong could apply pressure 2nd time blinks. If Bayern gets any sort of reasonable fractions for the 1/2 mile or 3/4 split I think he will be difficult to run down. My feeling is that the 10F will not be an issue, but the SAR track might beat him as it is a vastly different surface than the MON strip.

Going easy on bets today, but I might throw down a Bayern, Tonalist, Wicked Strong/ Charge Now exacta. Hard to see one of those 3 not winning, and I think Charge Now has some pretty good upside, but will probably not improve enough here to win.

In the undercard stakes I like Filimbi in the Ballston Spa (the scratch of Dayatthespa helps her chances and they were already pretty good), Wildcat Red in the King's Bishop, and Artemis Agrotera in the Ballerina.

good luck!

[The Tin Man]

Man ... crater city with Bayern ...

And then there were 2 as far a the best 3 year old in the country ...

Shared Belief or California Chrome ...

Guess we'll know a lot more after tomorrow ...

(What the heck happened with Indianapolis??? I'm beginning to think he'll never run again!)

[peeptoad]

Tonalist being gunned to pressure Bayern sure didn't help him at all, but I think he would have been beaten regardless. The Spa surface is such a different surface than MON. I was backing Bayern here (in terms of betting), but I really feel he would fit better in the Dirt Mile if they go BC with him.
Take nothing away from VE Day, but I think Wicked Strong ran the best race on Saturday...

[Man o Taz]

peeptoad - exactly what Mr. Serling said in his remarks. WS ran the best race of them all.

Quite exciting. I should have listened when I was told to bet the Jerkens exacta. I would have put WS on top, but I always box them just in case.

You are all right about the Saratoga track. Like Gulfstream not all horses like it.

I did not expect Bayern to do well at all given the surface. He is built for Monmouth, Santa Anita and Gulfstream (I actually think he should be pointed to the Donn Handicap if he is still running next year). The unexpected pressure from Tonalist did not help. Mr. Clement might have felt that he did not want Bayern to get away loose on the lead as some horses had - figuring he had a horse that could win at 12 furlongs - but Saratoga can be a tiring track.

[Man o Taz]

Also, I thought Mr. McGaughey did well to give Mr. Speaker another chance on dirt. He seemed competitive in the race on dirt and finished better than he did in the Holy Bull. The fact is that dirt just does not seem to be his best surface.

I hope he came out of the race well and perhaps we'll see him in the G1 Joe Hirsch against Mr. Motion's Main Sequence and his barn mate Imagining.