I realize that Chrome is fast and the last couple of races he really hasn't been asked... if runs back to last (and when did that BSF get "adjusted" because now it's slightly higher than I remember it being originally?) yeah, he probably wins. The problem I am having is that his last figure is the outlier in his pps. I am not completely sold on him yet. He could still regress and win, but he's my 2nd choice in here.
Candy Boy got an absolutely perfect trip in his last, as opposed to the horses that ran 2-3, both of which were wide. When Midnight Hawk hits the frame after going wide and running at a distance that is probably slightly beyond his best, you know the race wasn't too tough. And I didn't care for the Sunland Derby at all; both Chitu and Hawk were gasping at the end. Candy Boy has his work cut out for him, but he is clearly the 3rd best horse here, so a forward move puts him in contention, but. Still, I will let him beat me.
I'm sticking with Hoppertunity here. With all due respect to Chrome I vastly prefer his running lines, even if he's only had 4 starts. I think it's more likely he moves forward vs. Chrome (though, as stated, Chrome basically needs to just replicate the last to potentially win). If Hopper breaks well I think he can secure a good tracking trip and, if he's good enough, wins. He does need to improve a bit here, but my main concern is the two cross country trips... I can see why Baffert did not want to ship him to AR again.
Hoppertunity
California Chrome
Candy Boy
good luck
