Pennsylvania Derby

[peeptoad]

Not quite done looking at this one yet, but either Nyquist or Gun Runner seem like the most likely winner to me.
For exact/trifecta purposes I may also use Awesome Slew and Wild About Deb. The latter may provide value underneath in exotics and the former might be one of my top picks if not for the post.

[stark]

I have so much "California Money" saved up from these big races across the country this year I just don't see any reason to change plans now, box em up and wait in the cashiers line

[stark]

Exaggerator still must prove to critics he's more than a horse that needs a sloppy track to run his best race, and no less an authority than Keith Desormeaux isn't eager to dispute that, although the trainer of the Santa Anita Derby and Preakness winner isn't about to alter his thoughts on the colt's achievements.

Exaggerator takes on Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist and 10 others in Saturday's $1.25 million Pennsylvania Derby, scheduled to be run on a fast track at 1 1/8 miles. A son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, Exaggerator was purchased for $110,000 and to date has won $3,571,120.

"The numbers say he's just as good on a fast track," Desormeaux said. "He ran a great race in the San Vicente, he ran a great race in the Delta Jackpot and he ran a great race in the Saratoga Special. Those were dry tracks. (The Delta Jackpot was actually on a muddy track).

"But his major wins have all come on wet tracks, so it (the criticism) is not BS. Until I prove different, the naysayers can have their day. It doesn't bother me. It doesn't diminish what he's accomplished, it doesn't reflect on how much money he's won. He's a superstar.

"We don't look at the Pennsylvania Derby any differently. The type of surface he runs on doesn't change his style. It's up to Kent (Desormeaux) to get him in a nice, rhythmic gallop behind the pace and run them down. Nothing changes."

[Senator L]

I'm going with Nyquist I thought his last race was much
better than it looked. I really thought he struggled with the
sloppy track. Taking him over Summer Revolution
good luck
:chickendance:

[stark]

103 Beyer for Connect in the PA Derby

[peeptoad]

Wish I would have put a show bet on Wild About Deb... I talk em up and them don't bet em. Useless.  :chickendance:

[Man o Taz]

I am at a total loss to understand this race.

Nyquist.
Exaggerator.

I had my doubts about Cupid so that was no surprise.

Good for Awesome Slew...

At least Gun Runner managed to place. But the rest of them were no shows. And the worst thing about these performances is that there are not many excuses.

OK, so Gun Runner went wide and would have won had he had the run Connect had, but then we would have had to wade through the field like Connect did.

It looks like this class of three year olds has fallen by the way side and is showing no late season form. At least on the colt side.

[stark]

I am at a total loss to understand this race.

Nyquist.

It looks like this class of three year olds has fallen by the way side and is showing no late season form. At least on the colt side.

Got to be willing to cut this guy some slack. 
Been in serious training since June of his 2YO season, criss-crossed the country several times while facing the starter 11 times.  Even the connections recognized he needed a little downtime before going to Pennsylvania so they shipped him to SanLuisReyDowns for some R&R rather than the hustle 'n bustle of SantaAnita and what did he do during the month......four 1-mile workouts while he was there, some vacation!
Hopefully he just takes the rest of the year off and comes back as a happy, healthy 4YO.  One thing is for certain, NOBODY accomplished as much as he did while keeping up the same schedule for the past 15 months.

[peeptoad]

IMO Nyquist was precocious and peaked early and the rest have caught up and/or some new talent is emerging from tell crop. I doubt we see him as a 4yo but if he runs I suspect his calling would be a race like the Met or the other dirt mile races.

[Man o Taz]

I agree. I think Darley may give him a shot in the Malibu and then retire him.

The rest have caught up with him.

My only issue with his training are these mile gallops. I will grant that they managed to get and keep him fit for the Florida and Kentucky Derby, but that is not to say the normal 4-5-and 6 furlong outings would not have accomplished the same thing.

I think his connections tried to be too gimmicky with their sprint, route Triple Crown plan and these long gallops.

It got Nyquist the Derby win, but I do not know that they have worked to condition him past that. I think they need to start training him in normal routines and see if he can fire. Maybe his talent allowed him to overcome the bizarre campaign schedule and training regimen and now he needs every advantage that comes with a normal regimen since the others have caught up.

It is really sad because I believe he is a talented colt. But this generation until Arrogate came along was not known for speed so maybe that is the real lesson. If you have a class that does not show speed, once it comes along you are not going to be able to step up to compete.

[peeptoad]

Wasn't sure where to put this, but Connect is more likely for the Cigar Mile and will probably skip the BC:
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/connect-likely-skip-breeders-cup-point-cigar-mile/

[Man o Taz]

Hmm. Good place for him. Hopefully he does well and is around next year. If he shows he can stretch out as he matures  maybe they try the BC Classic at Del Mar.