The 139th Running of the G1 Preakness Stakes

[curtis]

I actually do not include Silver Charm as an almost TC winner since had Touch Gold not had a bad start in the Preakness Stakes he would have and should have won the second jewel of the TC.

The pussycat made this quite clear, to me at least with his finish in the Preakness and the result he achieved in the Belmont Stakes.

What's that old saying, "If if's and buts were candy and nuts....".  If you cashed on Touch Gold in the Belmont, good for you.  If you based your bet on his Preakness trip, you got both lucky and unlucky because that trip made him a big underlay.  Bad trips are almost always overblown.  Two that come to mind are Touch Gold's Preakness and Seattle Slew's '78 JCGC.  If Touch Gold's Belmont proved he was the best horse in the Preakness, then I don't know what the rest of their careers proved because Silver Charm was the better horse. 

[Man o Taz]

Then how do we use War Emblem's stumble or Smarty Jones' ride to explain his not winning the Triple Crown?

My point was only if you can find an excuse in the final leg - you should also be able to mention what happened in the penultimate leg as well.

[Man o Taz]

California Chrome
Commanding Curve - heading to the Belmont
Danza
Ride On Curlin - new jockey Joel Rosario
Samraat - heading to the Belmont

Bayern
California Chrome
Dynamic Impact
General a Rod
Kid Cruz
Pablo Del Monte
Ria Antonia
Ride On Curlin
Ring Weekend
Social Inclusion

My top 3 remain the same...

California Chrome
Ride on Curlin
Kid Cruz

For me this field has a lot to prove.

None of the horses in the field officially won their last race except Dynamic Impact. So why not him? He has not been facing the same level of horses that California Chrome, Ride on Curlin, General a Rod, and Social Inclusion have. 

Bayern prepped for the event with the 8 furlong Derby trial which I do not think bodes well.

We do not know if Pablo Del Monte can handle dirt.

Ring Weekend looked lackluster in his last start in the Calder Derby. I had him as a potential Derby horse - but I thought his running was better suited to Churchill Downs than Pimlico.

Ria Antonia could not even contend well with Untappable - though many suggest that she may be better than the males.

Social Inclusion may stretch out well - now that he has gotten more bottom under him as a result of his effort in the Wood. He still has I believe the highest BSF of this generation. The question is whether he can carry this speed a distance. I do not think so.

General a Rod I think could be a live play in here...if he rates. I do not know what happened to him in the Derby - but I still believe in him. He would be my fourth choice.

Kid Cruz knows the Pimlico track and has had success over it. I think he is an "X" factor.

Ride on Curlin gets a new rider and got little more than a glorified workout in the Derby so I do not believe that race is a measure of his true ability.

There is really no horse that comes close to California Chrome in this race. He should win despite the new contenders. Some suggest that the Derby was slow and as a result he has reason to fear the new contenders. I do not think so.

First, his 97 BSF was the highest figure in the race and only horses who had the same or a better BSF in the race than they had in previous races were Commanding Curve, Vinceremos, and Harry's Holiday. Here is a good explanation from Mike Watchmaker...

http://www.drf.com/blogs/california-chrome-and-his-derby-beyer

As Watchmaker concludes - no horse in this generation has run two top BSFs...of 108 and 107 like California Chrome...and while Untappable secured a 107 BSF in the Kentucky Oaks - it was a different track Saturday evening.

Second, the more I read and listen the more folks are supporting the theory that California Chrome was able to save a lot of his speed and energy for the next leg of the Triple Crown while convincingly winning the Kentucky Derby.

[Man o Taz]

Well, I hoped to see information about California Chrome going over the track early this morning, but nothing.

[Man o Taz]

Here it is and he liked the track...so things are continuing to look good.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/horse-racing/preakness/bal-california-chrome-takes-liking-to-pimlico-track-in-first-workout-20140513,0,967496.story

[Man o Taz]

Another good race by California Chrome.

He won by about the same amount.

Granted it was not as strong a field as he encountered in the Kentucky Derby, but he did beat mostly fresh shooters.

And the Derby contenders were complemented by the second place horse - Ride On Curlin - being the only Derby entry.

On to the Belmont Stakes.

[Delamont]

Ride on Curlin amazed me ... Going from waaay last to place!

[Man o Taz]

Ride On Curlin just seemed to stop. I think he's a 9 furlong horse. We'll see.

How about Revolutionary the day before pulling a similar move to win in the Pimlico special?

2014 Preakness Stakes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNqmQEA1i-0