Quote from: peeptoad on June 15, 2016, 09:43:15 AM
Per Fabre: Usherette, winner of the Duke of Cambridge S (GII) is under consideration for the BC Mile. If pointed to that race she will ship to the States later in the year.

Would be interesting to see her come.

Breeders Cup Top 5

The value of lists and rankings can be somewhat dubious but personally I find them to be a great way to generate interest and excitement on a personal level and for me there is nothing better than the Breeders Cup. Not even the Derby and it's build up is as engaging. The Breeders Cup is my favorite event of the year and each year I like to kick off the road to the BC in June with my top 5 lists for each race.

I'll add Top 5's for Juveniles in September once they've actually put some races on the board. But for now this is how I see the BC races races at the moment.

If I have time I'll also toss in some thoughts that the top 5 were based on.

June

Classic
California Chrome
Beholder
Effinex
Frosted
Nyquist

Obviously my top 5 seems somewhat biased towards older horses and Californians. At this point I think that's how the race will shake down. It's not that easy or common for big horses from the east to come to SA and dominate the BC. In Chrome and Beholder we have two pretty solid specimens that may have some fitness concerns but they're both really classy and are superb at Santa Anita.

Effinex is I think the best all-arounder in the east. He's got good tactical speed and is really confirming his rapid his in class last year. He really is this good.

Frosted was a beast in the Met Mile but I've seen far too much of this horse to make him the Classic favorite. I think he'll be up and down continually and he's still not shown that he can go with Chrome.

Nyquist would be a banker in the Dirt Mile but I think his connections will have eyes for the Classic only and perhaps rightly so. On a fast track this horse is really dangerous and he showed in the Derby that he can attend a very quick pace and still get something out of the race. The water gets deeper with the older horses but if he can improve he should be a factor.

Turf
Flintshire
Postponed
Found
Highland Reel
Divisidero

You may note that this list is dominated by Europeans and former Europeans. That's just where we're at. Flintshire is a really good horse and while I do expect him to lose once or twice at odds on this year (because he often loses for no reason) he should dominate US turf racing this year.

The Europeans I have placed behind him are simply a collection of the best in Europe that I think might come over for the race. It's hard to ignore the fact that O'Brien wins this race on a regular basis and Highland Reel and Found should both be good candidates for him.

I have Divisidero on there as sort of the lone "true American". I think he was ridden far too close to the pace last time out and should do better making just one run. He's not totally sure to stay 12f well but I think that the distance on SA's turf and unique configuration actually plays well for horses with questionable stamina. He's got talent but he's likely need a setup.

Mile
Ironicus
Tepin
Ring Weekend
Tourist
What A View

It's really hard not to have Tepin at the top of my list. She is the queen right now and it'll take something special to beat her. My thought is simply this. She is doing some hard racing right now and it's not easy to keep that going all year. We'll see how she comes back from England.

The other factor here in my mind is that Ironicus is really good and has been hampered by injury in his career. Watch his last race and look how he was coming after Flintshire both before and after the trouble he had in midstretch. He's a serious horse who will love a good firm track and he's relentless in the stretch.

Ring Weekend is another top class horse among what I think is a bumper crop of miler talent in America at the moment. To run as well as he did off that long layoff in his last was really special. He would basically be competing for the same space as Tepin all the way around the track so it would be an interesting dynamic to see him face her. He's got a shot against anyone.

Tourist is a horse I've wanted in a race like the Mile for a long time but it seems like every time it comes around he has something standing in the way which prevents me from really getting on his wagon. I think he has some really good races in him but hasn't quite figured out how to run them every time.

What A View is the top local hope and there is nothing quite like a horse in form at their home track. He's not the same level of quality as the top 3 on my list but I think race shape and tactics on the day could work out for him.

Sprint
Runhappy
Lord Nelson
XY Jet
Unified
Wild Dude

Dirt Mile
Dortmund
Cat Burglar
Anchor Down
Upstart
Danzing Candy

Distaff
Songbird
Stellar Wind
Curalina
Carrumba
Ahh Chocolate

FM Turf
Sentiero Italia
Sea Calisi
Illuminant
Miss Temple City
Wekeela

FM Sprint
Taris
Cavorting
Carina Mia
Lightstream
Fantastic Style

Turf Sprint
Undrafted
Lady Shipman
Coastline
Ageless
Acapulco

Amazing....looks like America has their very own Goldikova. It is quite a feat to travel abroad and win major European races for open ages.

This should be a good test for all involved. Beholder is certainly the class but Stellar Wind and Taris are nice fillies too. It'll be a good race for all of them. I think Beholder will win but I can see the case for those who would want to oppose on the off chance that the old champ is not the same as she was.

Interesting fact: The 89 BSF that Beholder got in her last race was the lowest BSF she has EVER earned in a dirt route race.

Settling in here as well

I don't have as much time to post as I did in years past but I really like the ability to have a casual chat and see what fellow fans are thinking.

Radar horses

Bobby's Kitten – One of the most naturally talented horses of the 2yo crop. Or so it would seem after just a handful of races. I think that this horse has a big upside, but will that upside be realized at 10f on the dirt? My suspicion is no but my respect for his talent earns him a prominent spot on my radar. This horse has real speed which is not a common trait in an effective turf horse but could be super effective on the dirt but we don't know if he'll handle dirt at all. I think that this could go two ways. The first is that Ramsey loves this horse so much he won't risk running him on a surface where he could get embarrassed. The second is that Ramsey believes in this horse so much that he is willing to throw him into the TC Trail in order to get Kitten his Derby win.

Misconnect – I'm taking a bit of a risk perhaps because this horse like many of his fathers lineage seems to be brilliant but fragile. It's uncanny how many Unbridled's Song horses look really good early on but can only get in a couple of starts before their connections have to pull the plug. In his debut Misconnect fell victim to the late swoop of Honor Code but really ran quite well. Next time out he came and got a speed horse that looked to have shaken off the field going 7f. I thought he looked quite good in both of his starts and while he may be most comfortable at 9f or less he may be one that bears watching

Commanding Curve – His first few races were pretty non-descript but he sure exploded in his last race. I was quite impressed by his maiden breaker. He looked like a horse that put a few things together. Can he replicate it against better horses? Hard to say. Not to be mean but his barn isn't one that gives a lot of confidence however I think this horse could be heard from in a few big races during the spring.

In Trouble – It was tough to leave this horse off the list but I'm really not sure what his health status is. Both his wins have been fantastic and he is bred to get more ground. His connections however seemed to be a bit cautious about his stamina claiming that they'd stretch him out gradually. He was supposed to be in the Nashua but was a no show. Definitely talented but how many Derby winners were graded stakes winners at 6f? Not any for a long time. Not that it's a curse or something it's simply a case where good 10f horses often don't have graded stakes winning ability at 6f.

Notability – Still a maiden and only managed an even effort in the KY Jockey Club stakes. However he did flash real talent in his debut and finished ahead of Tapiture. Given that he's only had two starts and is bred to handle distance I'm willing to wager that he's going to improve.

Lunarwarfare – I think a lot of people who read this name will have to read it twice before they remember him and then once they remember him they will pass me off as an idiot for including him. Lunarwarfare burst on to the scene with a huge win at 4.5f. They are rarely big indicators of anything but in his next two starts he proceeded to run decently in stakes company while receiving some pretty hard luck. His father was a miler but his damsire actually does impart some stamina. Robert LaPenta splashed the cash for him after the Hopeful because he wanted to manage the War Pass brand a little but then the horse got hurt. I have to think that he will at least be given a shot in TC prep races and I do believe that he has some talent. He might be a nice under the radar kind of horse. Maybe a better play to win a prep race at a price rather than the Derby but I'll be following him.

Shared Belief – Easily the most explosive and impressive 2yo I've seen this year. But his breeding screams distance limitations and I just think he'll be a miler. However he has been talented enough for me to keep on my radar. Sometimes really good horses outrun their limitations. He might but I don't think he will.

Havana – Like Shared Belief I think he has all kinds of talent and a definite stamina ceiling. He will likely look very good in some TC prep races. He even has the talent to arrive at the Derby as one of the top choices but he will need to show me that he handles 9f with ease before I'd be talking him as a Derby horse.

Bond Holder – Might be the kind that needs a setup but every once in a while I think he'll pop up with a big race. I don't think he is that good.

Mexikoma – He was a wise guy type horse for the BC Juvenile but never really showed much. Hard to say if that performance was definitive or not. I'm willing to keep an eye on him.

Harpoon – A serial loser at this point in his career but he has flashed talent and maybe he is one that could improve with age. His breeding suggests that he should handle two turns. He just needs to figure things out a bit more.

Kentucky Derby Top 10 – 2014 (December 2013)

1. New Year's Day
2. Cousin Stephen
3. Honor Code
4. Cairo Prince
5. Mosler
6. Tap It Rich
7. Commissioner
8. Tapiture
9. Surfing USA
10. Strong Mandate

Radar
Bobby's Kitten, Misconnect, Commanding Curve, In Trouble, Notability, Lunarwarfare, Shared Belief, Havana, Bond Holder, Mexikoma, Harpoon

This has been an interesting crop of 2yo's thus far. The one thing that has struck me has been the sense of parity. Every time a stakes race is run we seem to learn that the established stakes class isn't better than the maiden winners that have joined them.  By my count we've only had 5 graded races for juveniles that were won by horses who had finished in the money in any race other than a maiden. One of those happened to be the KY Jockey Club where the winner had finished in the money in a graded race but was still a maiden and most recently ran third in a maiden.

This is a natural phenomenon to some degree but what has stood out to me most is that I don't really believe that any of them are clearly better than the rest of the crop. It would not shock me to learn on Derby day that none of the top finishers had run in a stakes race through November of this year.

I have narrowed down my top 10 Derby choices in order that I feel most comfortable with but then I look at the next 10 horses I have listed on my radar and I'd be almost as comfortable if that group were my top 10. There aren't a group of horses or even a single horse that I really believe in at this point. Having said there I think there are a few positive things that can be said about some contenders out there.

New Year's Day – I think that the popular opinion on him is that he was lucky that Havana and Strong Mandate did so much hard work in the juvenile and couldn't finish but I think that this horse still has a lot of room to improve and he should get better with distance. His BC Juvenile prep was less than ideal with having to miss what would have been his major prep race. His maiden win was pretty good in its own right and who knows, with another prep race prior to the Juvenile he may have worked his way onto the shortlist of favorites. Either way I'm not sure he was that lucky in the Juvenile I think he was just capable of finishing in a race where few others were. He isn't a late runner and I think he'll show good tactical speed in most of his prep races. He also isn't a monster, at least not from what I've seen. I fully expect this horse to lose a prep race or two but like Real Quiet I expect him to show some decent form despite perhaps not winning.

Cousin Stephen – His racing career has been quite brief and I think it would be stretching it a bit to say he's been brilliant but he did show a glimpse of real promise in his last race. In his debut he was easily handled by Mosler but that was a tough place to start your career. Next out at Aqueduct he dominated a 9f maiden race. What was most impressive was the way he quickened and drew away from this group. He finished very brightly and his closing splits of 12.8 and 24.8 are decent for a young horse in a race that wasn't falsely run. Coup de Grace seems to be the stable #1 in many people's opinion but I prefer this guy. His lineage does not scream classic Derby pedigree but I think that there is enough there to at least not place him at a disadvantage.

Honor Code – The most talked about horse on the TC trail. He'll have a near cult following and will be bet down each and every time he runs. Because of his profile it's going to be a common exercise for the "sharp" minds to try and beat him when he runs. I am firmly between the camps. Honor Code is a good horse and seems to have the right to improve as much as anyone in this crop. He also seems to be, at this moment, as talented as anyone and distance should help him. He has many of the right tools. He may be as good as anyone but there are a few horses that could say the same thing. The Beyer level he is performing at is decent but not at all difficult for even a first timer to equal. As time goes on more and more horses will achieve his current level of performance. He has to improve a great deal. The good news is that he looks like he can.

Cairo Prince – Like many people I was hoping that the Remsen would tell us a little more about his capabilities. It didn't turn out that way because the race was falsely run but if you look at the bare facts he is a nose away from being undefeated. His only loss came by a nose to the horse that most people consider to be the best of this crop. I thought the ride he got was curious and perhaps didn't give him the best chance to beat Honor Code. 10f still looms as a potential problem for him but he seems like one of the most talented horses of the crop.

Mosler – He only won a maiden race and the speed figure he got was nothing special but he's earned the respect of many and his maiden victory seemed to be a key race as many next out winners emerged. I would maybe have him higher up the list but I really don't know where he is. I'm assuming some kind of setback but not one serious enough to get a big headline. So I hope he can get back to the track soon enough to be properly prepared. A lot of people would love this horse to give Mott success in the Derby but you also know that Mott will pull the plug on the TC prep if the horse isn't perfect. That should give you confidence in March and April if he's still in the mix but right now it makes me nervous that he might not be joining the dance. I think that he could be any kind and could easily top my list at some point.

Tap It Rich – He grabbed a lot of headlines because of his maiden win but I think the Juvenile wasn't really the best place to put him so quickly after that triumph. I thought he stayed on decently in that race. Given the circumstances he did not tarnish his reputation in my eyes. So he has the world before him. He could really run in to any type of horse. I do think that 10f will be within his scope and I do feel that he could have a touch of brilliance about him. I like his overall profile form a tactical standpoint. Despite not breaking the best in his maiden and falling into the pack a bit in the Juvenile I do think that he will have the tactical ability to sit mid-pack or closer and still finish. I have a generally positive outlook on his prospect for improvement.

Commissioner – He hasn't been seen since winning a near stagger fest at Saratoga but in his defense he was asked to go 9f pretty early on and was also in a drive a long way from home. The fact that he was able to sustain that drive for that long while moving away from all put the second place finisher hinted at some decent staying ability. The real trick will be proving he's good enough. As long as Pletcher has him fit I think he might actually be the #1 TC prospect in the barn. Most of Pletcher's other horses seem to have distance concerns. Commissioner doesn't seem very flashy but I'm interested to see how he develops.

Tapiture – His connections has long thought of him as a good horse in the making but he didn't give us a true glimpse until just recently when he waltzed away from the field in the KY Jockey Club. It was a good performance for a horse who had not won a race but for me the real test will come in his next race. Can he step it up another level? Can he run fast? Will he continue to relish more distance? I see him as a bit shaky at 10f but probably adequate. The biggest hurdle will be to turn into a horse that can win. Many do once they finally get a taste for it.

Surfing USA – His breeding is going to raise questions but he has looked pretty sharp so far and he has also finished both of his races quite well. I was pretty impressed with the way he closed out his last race at Aqueduct. It looked as though his rivals were going to get to him but he just kept going and held them rather safely in the end. I'm not sure how that will translate going forward but I do think that his next step (8.5f) will be no problem. He has a lot of natural speed but he seems like a kindly horse to handle. His perseverance through the lane should stand him in good stead.

Strong Mandate – As I have been working on this list no horse has bounced in and out of my top 10 more than Strong Mandate. The positives are his class and the obvious fact that he will run in every prep race available as well as all three TC races as long as he doesn't break down. He will certainly be given the opportunity to take his chance. I am by no means an expert Lukas observer but it seems to me that his training style is to get a horse into action and let them improve through racing. He obviously is able to identify raw talent but has a tendency to throw raw talent horses into top races before the talent has matured. You see it over and over with his big stars. They often run in many stakes races before they put it together and start winning races. The fact that Strong Mandate is already a G-1 winner is certainly in his favor.  His inconsistencies could show that he hasn't figured it out they could also reveal that he is simply a horse prone to inconsistency. Distance should help this horse if his breeding is any guide although he has looked his sharpest in sprint races thus far. For me he is definitely the hardest one to make up my mind about. I'm not sure if I expect him to get better or not.

I think the comparisons to sports such as football and baseball are off the mark. Those are sports with a definite season and off season with a clear year end goal. Racing is much more like Tennis or Golf in its near continuous nature.

I think the author makes a mistake when he assumes that racing wants to have one race that encapsulates the season. It may be the American way for most sports but I actually prefer the more cumulative situation we have now where some races are definitely bigger affairs and count more in the minds of voters but no one race decides it all.

I think the nature of racing effectively makes the notion of a "one race takes all" pretty illogical and yet so many people want the BC to fill that role. I like it better as the most important prize in a series of prizes available, but not so important that it outweighs the sum of all other events.

An interesting article was posted on HRI and I thought it might be worth discussing.

You can read the entire article here: http://www.horseraceinsider.com/Carryover-2-0/comments/poor-clark-poor-cigar/#comments

For those who want the short version here is the main crux of the article:

"Two things should happen: Either the horse racing year must end and take a two-month vacation before racing picks up again in January, or the Breeders' Cup, if it stays in SoCal permanently, should be moved to December and thus truly end the year."

I agree, without seeing the field in detail my choice would be Game on Dude.

I think that a lot of the Game On Dude discussion can be encapsulated with one question.

Based on everything we know, don't know and are guessing about Game on Dude will he win the Clark?

Up With the Birds

Quote from: Man o Taz on November 15, 2013, 07:16:28 AM

Quote from: Kennedy on November 13, 2013, 10:47:56 AM

Quote from: Man o Taz on November 13, 2013, 08:14:03 AM
And in 2012 he participated in the Dubai World Cup (12), in 2011 he also participated in the Charles Town Classic (2), and the Lone Star Park Handicap (3), and in 2010 he was in two maiden races placing (2,1) at Gulfstream Park, the Florida Derby (7), Churchill Downs for the Cliff's Edge Derby Trial (5), the Lone Star Park Derby (1), and the Belmont Stakes (4). So to add to your point - he has traveled outside of California quite a bit.

Examining this resume, 40% of his races have been run outside the state of California.

But in the early part of his career he clearly wasn't the horse he is today. He has improved significantly over what he was as a 3yo. So it is difficult to compare his early races. One might actually say that he did not become a really good horse until he started running in Cal on a regular basis.

True.

When do you measure that he got good?

When he won his first stakes race?

The Lone Star Derby...G3...that would give him 7 out of 24 outside of CA or 29% of his races.

When he won his first G1 race?

That would be March 2011 - his second race career race in California - so let's eliminate the seven races in before that...

23% of his races - 5 out of 21 occurred outside of CA. 1.66 a year...out of an average of 7 races per year.

That's better than a lot of California-based horses.

In my estimation he became a good horse when he became a 4yo and matured a bit.  Despite my cagey devils advocate role in this thread I actually do not believe that Game on dude was smoke and mirrors with a record trumped up by inferior competition. I think that his going to California and becoming a good horse just happened that way. The one was not the cause of the other.

He has done just fine away from California since turning 4. Aside from going to Dubai which hasn't been kind to the US team since they began at Meydan.

I also think that his losses in the last two Classics were not a case of a false jade getting exposed. I actually think he just isn't as good at 10f and for whatever reason he also didn't run his best race. I'm a bit wary of Baffert horses in the BC in races other than the Sprint and Juvenile events. Game on Dude's failures are far from the first he's had.

Quote from: Man o Taz on November 13, 2013, 08:14:03 AM
And in 2012 he participated in the Dubai World Cup (12), in 2011 he also participated in the Charles Town Classic (2), and the Lone Star Park Handicap (3), and in 2010 he was in two maiden races placing (2,1) at Gulfstream Park, the Florida Derby (7), Churchill Downs for the Cliff's Edge Derby Trial (5), the Lone Star Park Derby (1), and the Belmont Stakes (4). So to add to your point - he has traveled outside of California quite a bit.

Examining this resume, 40% of his races have been run outside the state of California.

But in the early part of his career he clearly wasn't the horse he is today. He has improved significantly over what he was as a 3yo. So it is difficult to compare his early races. One might actually say that he did not become a really good horse until he started running in Cal on a regular basis.

I'm looking forward to weighing in on this topic. It's always fun to make lists and follow the progress of the best and brightest. I am going to hold off until the end of the month though. There are still four route stakes races to be run for juvenile males this month as well as many maiden events and allowances. November is a big month for Derby prospects. If this year is anything like a typical year many of the eventual Derby starters will be running in a route race of some kind in November.