I am drooling at the possible line-up for the Pennsylvania Derby:
California Chrome
Shared Belief
VE Day OR Wicked Strong (I am thinking the latter since VE Day has shown himself to be the better horse at 10 furlongs with Wicked Strong achieving a 2nd, 4th, and 4th in 10 furlong or more races this year. Maybe he should be rested for the Breeders Cup Classic and not tested again (how many horses have run in the Derby, Belmont, Travers, JCGC and BC Classic in the same year and won one of the latter two? - I think the answer is zero- Unbridled probably comes closest having run in the Triple Crown races but he skipped the Travers taking the summer off). Plus - there is much more money to be gained in Philadelphia - and much more prestige. Tonalist loves Belmont Park - so for Team Jerkens to put all their eggs in this basket may not be prudent.)
Tapiture
Protonico
This race could have a lot to say about not only champion three year old, but also Horse of the Year.
If Shared Belief or California Chrome win out either one could be Horse of the Year.
If Chrome loses in Pennsylvania, but wins at Santa Anita he'll be Horse of the Year.
If Shared Belief loses in Pennsylvania, but wins in the BC Classic - a lot of debate will be raised.
Shared Belief
G1 Pacific Classic
G2 Los Alamitos Derby
California Chrome
4th G1 Belmont Stakes
G1 Preakness Stakes
G1 Kentucky Derby
G1 Santa Anita Derby
G2 San Felipe
California Cup
Its hard to overcome the 5 stakes wins by California Chrome.
And his beating Shared Belief in the Pennsylvania Derby one would think would ice his three year old championship.
Shared Belief, on the other hand, has a thinner resume and a loss to California Chrome in the PA Derby would give him a head to head win.
Is there any incentive for Shared Belief to come East? What if he runs in and wins the G1 Awesome Again and then takes on California Chrome. He would have 2 G1 wins against older horses. A win in the BC Classic would give him three wins against older horses...but his races would all be out West...and naysayers would challenge the competition there except in the BC Classic.
Now, Los Alamitos is dirt. However, is the loam of Los Alamitos the same as Santa Anita? Is Philadelphia Park better suited to Shared Belief than Santa Anita? I don't know.
I hope they send Shared Belief. Its the sporting thing to do. I do not know that I could choose a cheering interest. I love both Chrome and SB. The biggest irony would be if the top horses in the race are from California and the top East Coast three year olds stay away.
We know one isn't in Tapiture with Mr. Asmussen featuring his two top three year olds of either sex that day in Untapable as well.
I would love to see Shared Belief and Chrome lock horns, would make for a fantastic race.
If they both stay healthy its going to happen sooner or later.
Shared Belief has not had much of a chance to test the best of the three year old ranks - and this race would offer him the stiffest test yet against three year olds. Candy Boy is one of the best of his generation, but since winning the G2 Robert Lewis in February. In his four races since - only in the Kentucky Derby has he finished out of the money - finishing second in his last two.
Some may suggest that he has nothing to prove against them given his taking on the older males in the Pacific Classic, but despite his impressive showing in the Los Alamitos Derby, it is his only effort on dirt.
I hope he comes East. I also hope more of the top three year olds enter the Pennsylvania Derby, but I understand if California Chrome and Shared Belief scare them off.
I highly doubt Shared Belief ships for this race. The Awesome Again is a more logical BC prep and he would just have to ship down from GG, rather than cross country and back. Hollendorfer also is apparently entertaining the idea of training him up to the Classic, but I think that's a less likely scenario than shipping for the PA Derby.
In terms of the 3yo award Shared Belief would probably have to win the Classic to have a chance. If that happens he may also have a shot at HOY, depending on how the other races between now and then unfold.
I agree there are many reason not to ship him. I also agree that training him up to the Breeders Cup Classic would be a tough ask for the colt.
However, what horses would he face in the Awesome Again, that he did not face in the Pacific Classic? Few, if any.
Now, the benefit of running in the Awesome Again other than avoiding the cross country ship is easy to see in his getting to try the Santa Anita dirt which he has never tried before for a race in advance of the Breeders Cup.
Many are suggesting that the three year olds this year are better than the older horses. I am not one of them - but you hear the broadcasters on TVG, HRN, NBC, Fox and elsewhere suggesting this.
If that is the case - Shared Belief has only one win against three year olds - where he bested one top three year old who is winless since February in Candy Boy.
The Pennsylvania Derby also offers a nice price tag far exceeding that offered in the Awesome Again - Mr. Hollendorfer is nothing if not a businessman.
I would not be surprised if Shared Belief shows up in the PA Derby.
I doubt it would have any negative impact on his performance in the BC Classic unless he has a problem shipping and I have seen nothing to suggest he would.
He would also get an extra week of rest.
And there is also likely appearance fees available from Philadelphia Park.
I'll have no problem understanding if he does not show up in the PA Derby - but I would not be surprised at all if he did.
Shared Belief heading to the Awesome Again after his 1.02 and .50 second works...
Perhaps they don't feel he's sharp enough coming out of the Pacific Classic, but he seems to work pretty slow anyway...
It looks like the Awesome Again field will be nothing special - at least not including any big horses that Shared Belief has not already bested in the Pacific Classic.
That said, as I noted, this will be Shared Belief's first race over the Santa Anita dirt so it will be interesting to see how he does on a top dirt track.
I do not know how the loam of Los Alamitos compares to that of Santa Anita, but it is likely one of the biggest challenges that SB will face.
I also wonder if Shared Belief conducting all his races in California - if he were to win out with three G1 wins against older horses - would suffer some of the stigma that has burdened game on dude and even Zenyatta for not being campaigned outside of California. At least Zenyatta competed at Oaklawn. In the end, it may make little difference since Shared Belief can be campaigned next year all over the country...but will it be with or without an eclipse award.
I wonder if this will encourage others to enter the Pennsylvania Derby...with that $1 million price tag there where second place would equal better than first place for other preps and also provide and extra week to prepare for the Breeders Cup.
And just as I speak it seems that Bayern and Candy Boy may be both eying a rematch with California Chrome.
Honestly, I don't think the PA Derby was ever a serious consideration for Shared Belief; at least that was never expressed to the media, as far as I can tell.
The Awesome Again might not be the strongest race in terms of potential entries, but it would be vastly more interesting (for me) if Itsmyluckyday ends up in there. My guess is the owners are still deciding whether or not to supplement him to the BC, otherwise why ship all the way to CA just for the prep. ?
I look forward to seeing Bayern in the Met Mile next year. I hope the connections have that one penciled in, even though it's way off in the future. Seems like a race tailor-made for a horse like Bayern.
And it may be nearing G1 status...
http://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-pennsylvania-derby-lures-big-horse-nears-grade-1-status
I did not realize that the purse for the Jockey Club Gold Cup had been increased to a $1 million.
Now I know why VE Day and Wicked Strong are pointing there.
I do not understand less why Shared Belief is pointing to the $300,000 Awesome Again. I guess the philosophy "if it ain't broke don't fix it" may come into play. They have next year to challenge out of California. Will miss him.
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 11, 2014, 08:44:01 AM
And it may be nearing G1 status...
http://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-pennsylvania-derby-lures-big-horse-nears-grade-1-status
I did not realize that the purse for the Jockey Club Gold Cup had been increased to a $1 million.
Now I know why VE Day and Wicked Strong are pointing there.
I do not understand less why Shared Belief is pointing to the $300,000 Awesome Again. I guess the philosophy "if it ain't broke don't fix it" may come into play. They have next year to challenge out of California. Will miss him.
I agree, considering the vast difference in the purse. Maybe they don't want to ship and/or run 3X in a row at 10F??
Quote from: peeptoad on September 11, 2014, 08:40:49 AM
Honestly, I don't think the PA Derby was ever a serious consideration for Shared Belief; at least that was never expressed to the media, as far as I can tell.
The Awesome Again might not be the strongest race in terms of potential entries, but it would be vastly more interesting (for me) if Itsmyluckyday ends up in there. My guess is the owners are still deciding whether or not to supplement him to the BC, otherwise why ship all the way to CA just for the prep. ?
I look forward to seeing Bayern in the Met Mile next year. I hope the connections have that one penciled in, even though it's way off in the future. Seems like a race tailor-made for a horse like Bayern.
I would love if Itsmyluckday went to the Awesome Again.
I know SB's assistant is the only one to mention the PA Derby as a possibility. However, Mr. Hollendorfer has successfully shipped to Philadelphia Park and Delaware before. And he has also showed he is a businessman with his campaign of horses sending them to the richest races. The Pacific Classic was an example of that. As was the Delaware Handicap for Blind Luck. However, perhaps Blind Luck had shown herself to be a more durable horse than Shared Belief - and they are keeping their eyes on the BC prize. I firmly believe it never hurts to get a horse a prep over the surface of a major race so the Awesome Again makes sense in that respect.
Quote from: peeptoad on September 11, 2014, 08:48:29 AM
I agree, considering the vast difference in the purse. Maybe they don't want to ship and/or run 3X in a row at 10F??
That's why I feel the PA Derby was a good choice since its 9 furlongs against three year olds.
Then again, with California Chrome being the monster that he is - the easier place might be in the Awesome Again unless Game On Dude regains his form.
Who knows - after the Pacific Classic - Baffert may rest him for the Classic again.
But I think California Chrome - if he is vulnerable - will be in his return race. In the Classic I think he wins it over all comers - but we'll see. Shared Belief could be that good.
America's Best Racing to stream Pennsylvania Derby...
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/87338/americasbestracingnet-to-stream-penn-derby
I wonder how much Shared Belief pulling out of the PA Derby will affect attendance.
What many forget is that the racing that day at Philadelphia Park not only includes the likely champion three year old colt, but also the likely champion three year old filly in Untapable running in the G1 Cotillion.
Get to see the best three year old filly and colt in the country - the winners of the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks.
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 12, 2014, 05:49:02 AM
I wonder how much Shared Belief pulling out of the PA Derby will affect attendance.
I don't think it will affect attendance at all, mainly because Shared Belief was never (according to any of the major media outlets) seriously considered for the PA Derby. You can't pull out if you were never there to begin with...
This might be behind a paywall, but I'll post the link anyway:
http://www.drf.com/news/premium/pennsylvania-derby-lineup-grows-three (http://www.drf.com/news/premium/pennsylvania-derby-lineup-grows-three)
current probables for PA Derby:
CA Chrome
Bayern
Protonico
CJ's Awesome
Candy Boy
Classic Giacnroll
Noble Moon
Tapiture
the field will be drawn in today...
Quote from: peeptoad on September 12, 2014, 08:59:58 AM
I don't think it will affect attendance at all, mainly because Shared Belief was never (according to any of the major media outlets) seriously considered for the PA Derby. You can't pull out if you were never there to begin with...
My query was IF the two of them were coming to the race would there be more attendance then just Chrome coming. I actually think its the same answer, though - Chrome is the name - he's the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner - I doubt people are coming to see the race just because Shared Belief might be entered as well.
Its too bad Samraat and Uncle Sigh are not back to try this race, but the field is shaping up well. 8 horses...
Is Philly (I started typing phonetically filly) Park a speed favoring track like Monmouth? I don't really remember. I actually think it has less of a bias enabling horses coming off the pace to do well. This may hurt Bayern. I wonder if this race determines if Bayern goes in the Classic or the Dirt Mile or even the Sprint?
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 15, 2014, 06:56:44 AM
My query was IF the two of them were coming to the race would there be more attendance then just Chrome coming. I actually think its the same answer, though - Chrome is the name - he's the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner - I doubt people are coming to see the race just because Shared Belief might be entered as well.
I understand... pure speculation. I bet attendance
would be higher if the impressive winner of the Pac Classic and the Derby/Preakness winner both shipped 3000 miles to tackle each other on neutral ground.
I do think Parx is somewhat speed favoring... though to what extent (compared to MON, etc.) I'm not sure.
We'll see.
Do you see any issues with the post position draw in a field of 8 horses.
I don't think it really matters - Bayern is going to use his speed to go to the front - whether its from the 8 spot or the 1 spot. And Chrome will stalk whether starting from the 8 or the 1.
In terms of field size I don't think post position will negatively affect any horse. I don't know much about the track at PARX... not sure if the rail would be a detriment or not.
I think the natural speed of the 2 favorites Bayern and California Chrome will eliminate any potential problems.
Chrome has drawn inside before and worked his way out. I think they would probably prefer an outside post, but they'll be able to handle whatever they get.
And Bayern is the same way...he'll likely be gunned to the lead...and the question is will horses be able to catch him coming down the stretch.
The stretch is shorter at Philadelphia Park (I think its a mile track) so horses need to be near the pace coming around the far turn...but that's the style of the two favorites to be on or near the pace so it could be a good race. Its certainly the race to beat Chrome if ever there was one.
Bayern is a shipping animal this year...heading out to the Arkansas Derby, Derby Trial, Preakness, the Woody Stephens, the Haskell, the Travers Stakes, the Pennsylvania Derby...
Some horses do not even run 7 times let alone ship to 7 different tracks...and if you think about it he's a perfect fit for the Cigar Mile so who knows maybe he'll run an odd 11 times this year...since he'll already run 10 having run twice in California before shipping 6 times, 7th coming this week, and then the Breeders Cup will be his 10th race...and then if he comes for the Cigar Mile.
Here is a horse named after my favorite soccer team and while I want him to do well, he has not been my number one horse in any but 1 race I have seen him in - the Woody Stephens...and this time I'll be cheering for California Chrome to win - though Bayern will be a close second.
I'd look for Bayern to ship to Santa Anita for the BC Dirt Mile after the PA Derby. I do agree that the Cigar Mile would be tailor made for him. Baffert will have to judge how much horse he has left and what the plans are for 2015.
1 CALIFORNIA CHROME, (L) Sherman, A, Espinoza, V, 124
2 CANDY BOY, (L) Sadler, J, Rosario, J, 122
3 PROTONICO, (L) Pletcher, T Castellano, J, 122
4 BAYERN, (L) Baffert, B Garcia, M, 124
5 NOBLE MOON, (L) Gyarmati, L Ortiz, Jr., I, 122
6 CLASSIC GIACNROLL, (L) Guerrero, L Carmouche, K, 117
7 TAPITURE, (L) Asmussen, S Napravnik, R, 122
8 C J'S AWESOME, (L) McPeek, K Prado, E, 117
If either Chrome or Bayern are upset it's probably by Candy Boy. IMO.
I agree with that.
A little surprised that Bayern shares top weight with California Chrome, though Bayern has been running and Chrome on the bench lately.
I think Tapiture rounds out the field and might make it in the money as well.
Quote from: curtis on September 15, 2014, 11:39:18 AM
I'd look for Bayern to ship to Santa Anita for the BC Dirt Mile after the PA Derby. I do agree that the Cigar Mile would be tailor made for him. Baffert will have to judge how much horse he has left and what the plans are for 2015.
You are absolutely right.
If he is to be pointed for the G1 Donn Handicap where I think his style of running is well suited, he may want to rest him after the Breeders Cup since that comes up in early February.
I do not know many Baffert three year olds that run 10 race schedules, let alone 11 - but perhaps that is to Bayern's credit that he has the durability to do that.
I wonder if he might head to the BC Classic instead of the dirt mile if he were to have a similar performance to his Haskell effort.
I like Bayern's breeding a lot - as a Wild Again grandson on top who is my favorite BC Classic winner with his gutsy stretch run and Thunder Gulch on the bottom.
So I think he may be able to get the 10 furlong distance if he can change his style of racing a bit and lay off the pace and relax. Right now he seems to be running like Rachel Alexandra gunning to the front and hoping to leave everyone in the dust, but as I have always contended - I thought Rachel's best races were where she lay off the pace a bit like in her Haskell win...perhaps this is a dimension that Bayern can develop with time and maturity. This is his first year running after all. I just hope we continue to see him out East if he does run next year.
Bayern, California Chrome, and Candy Boy arrived yesterday with JoJo...
They are going to have the horses for the Cotillion and PA Derby working out between 8:30 and 9:00 AM on the track.
Hope to see them tomorrow.
Hey Taz... sounds like you will be at PARX for these races? If so would you mind getting me a picture of Winning Image? She is entered in race 4 (the #5 horse) on the undercard Saturday. Thanks if possible!
Yes, hope to be. No problem. I know I owe you a lot of pictures. ;-)
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 17, 2014, 07:50:35 AM
Yes, hope to be. No problem. I know I owe you a lot of pictures. ;-)
You owe me nothing... ;) BUT Winning Image is one of my top favorite horses currently racing. BlindLucky on the other board got me a few shots of her on the Preakness undercard... always looking for more.
Chrome looked great this morning. So much bigger.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xgCEcjlRSQ
Well, Bayern certainly showed himself well.
I know Victor said he had trouble getting out of the inside and did not want to get caught up in a speed duel with Bayern, but he was on the lead for a while and could have moved outside forcing Bayern in. It would have forced him to use a little of his reserves up, but it could have gotten him out of the inside which didn't work in the Belmont and did not work in the Pennsylvania Derby. Now, perhaps the Belmont performance is a toss out because of the grabbed quarter.
I hoped California Chrome would win, but when I heard how they were souping the track up for a record I was a bit worried.
Chrome certainly looked very good on the way to the paddock and the gate from where I was standing.
Of course, Bayern did too. These are two good looking horses. I thought Candy Boy looked good too.
What a day for Mr. Asmussen - a first and a second in the million dollar headline races. And Candy Boy got the best of Chrome in one of the many races they have contested.
The Breeders Cup is on...if they let Bayern get away with those fractions on a track souped up like Santa Anita will likely be Bayern could provide an effort like Game On Dude in the Santa Anita Handicap.
Bayern has certainly distinguished himself as "the other California horse"...now as between California Chrome and Shared Belief.
And I do think it was one of the best ever - if not the best ever.
Top competition.
The Kentucky Derby and Preakness Winner
4 horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby
2 horses that ran in the Preakness Stakes
1 that ran in the Belmont Stakes
1 that ran in the Travers Stakes
2 Grade 1 winning horses
2 multiple graded stakes winning horses
4 graded stakes winning horses
5 stakes winning horses
That said the attendance came in by estimates I saw at only just above 16,000 people which was a disappointment for me since earlier estimates pegged it at 20-30,000.
It still was far more than I had ever seen at the race and the paddock was packed.
Here's Haskin's write up on Chrome in the Pennsylvania Derby...
Can California Chrome rebound off his performance in the Pennsylvania Derby to the extent of knocking off Shared Belief and the other 3-year-olds in the Classic? It must be noted that the five times in his career he has been stuck on the inside or between horses he has finished out of the money, unable to kick in even when there was room turning for home. When he's been on the outside and in the clear, he has been unbeatable. But beating (Derby runner-up) Commanding Curve and (Preakness runner-up) Ride On Curlin is not exactly the same as meeting this new group of potential stars.
So, it will be all guesswork when it comes to evaluating his chances in the Classic. It sure would make for a great story if he could rebound, especially with the large fan base he has amassed through his Triple Crown heroics. But races are marketed and sold before the race, and we'll have to see how far his star appeal has dropped after his lackluster performance at Parx.
Chromies, as his fans are often known, had to feel frustrated watching Victor Espinoza try desperately to get out off the rail and into a clear path. After breaking sharply, he was confronted by C J's Awesome charging up from the outside, thwarting his first escape attempt. But that was to be expected considering C J's Awesome's early lick. It was the second attempt that did him in when Javier Castellano, on Protonico, asked his horse going into the first turn, and it was obvious that Castellano was intent on keeping California Chrome boxed in, no matter how hard Espinoza tried to get out, even attempting for a second to bull his way out. But Castellano had him locked in and had thrown away the key. He wasn't about to leave the door open even a crack. That's when Espinoza resigned himself to his fate and just tried to follow Bayern, hoping something would open up. When it finally did it was too late. California Chrome seemed spent by then, offering little in the stretch.
By the way, Protonico finished over four lengths behind California Chrome in seventh, which often happens to horses when they are preoccupied for so long with going after targeted favorites. That is two races in a row now that a Todd Pletcher horse has compromised California Chrome – first it was longshot Matterhorn stepping on the back of his ankle at the start of the Belmont in a freak occurrence and now with Protonico, who was coming off an impressive victory in the Smarty Jones Stakes over the Parx Racing surface.
With all that said, the outcome of the Pennsylvania Derby, as far as the winner goes, might not have been altered even if California Chrome had gotten out. Perhaps even more damaging to him than his entrapment was the :47 4/5 half-mile fraction glaring ominously from the tote board. That pretty much sealed the fate of not only California Chrome, but every other horse in the race.
Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2014/09/22/shared-belief-needs-to-be-awesome-again.aspx#ixzz3ELlyOqLF
My issue continues to be that California Chrome was at a minimum the second fastest horse in the race...
Knowing that he does not like the inside and usually finishes out of the money when placed there why not use more horse early. It may have compromised him to the extent that he did not have enough gas for the stretch run - I understand that - but with the alternative being a definite loss why not take the chance? I know - hindsight is 20/20 but if I can scream this during the race I'm certain the Mr. Espinosa had to be thinking it as well. That said, the goal was a tune up - I hope Chrome got a nice full blowout. He has 6 weeks to regroup - a week off and then 5 weeks to build him for the BC Classic. And I think the horse to fear there is Bayern more than Shared Belief. I think Shared Belief is going to have a tough time of it with three in a row against older horses. In addition, Chrome and Shared Belief both come off the pace with Shared Belief a deeper closer.
A combination of fitness, the trip and Bayern's easy lead according to Maggie Wolfendale's analysis of the Pennsylvania Derby.
http://www.hrtv.com/videos/maggie-wolfendale-on-belmonts-stakes-races-92514/?VideoCategoryId=0