Here are the entries for the Winter Challenge. 10 entered, 2 also eligibles, and Chrome drew the 10 hole. http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/218399/chrome-to-face-nine-in-winter-classic (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/218399/chrome-to-face-nine-in-winter-classic)
I fully expect Chrome to run the table... if he somehow doesn't handle the track, then maybe Point Piper (and if that one manages to run a career best), but this really should be nothing more than a paid workout.
Quote from: peeptoad on December 15, 2016, 07:50:58 AM
I fully expect Chrome to run the table... if he somehow doesn't handle the track, then maybe Point Piper (and if that one manages to run a career best), but this really should be nothing more than a paid workout.
Point Piper is easily the second best horse in there. He ran, what is thought, to be the fastest ever two-turn dirt mile when he won the Longacres Mile up here at EMD in August. To run back to that kind of race though, he would need a pace meltdown and I don't see that happening. Unless Victor falls off while preening for cameras in the stretch, Chromie wins for fun. Now I expect a percentage of the $2.10 everyone will collect on Chrome, unless you're able to find that winner on your own.😉
Nice that they got a full field and only one maiden...
Quote from: curtis on December 15, 2016, 09:53:36 AM
Now I expect a percentage of the $2.10 everyone will collect on Chrome, unless you're able to find that winner on your own.😉
I'll spend $18 and bet $2 to show on "all others" just in case, guessing the jumpers will be out in full force emptying their Christmas Club accounts.
Say what?
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) / $1 Super High 5 /WIN ONLY
They putting the kibosh on you, stark!
I agree with curtis: Chrome would have to lose the jock in order to lose this race...
:chickendance:
Quote from: peeptoad on December 16, 2016, 02:29:21 AM
They putting the kibosh on you, stark!
I agree with curtis: Chrome would have to lose the jock in order to lose this race...
I just REALLY don't like the whole idea, period. If I had a million dollar prized possession there is no way I'd push my luck and ask for more, you can't convince me that greed is good Gordon. If it wasn't for some cockamamie idea of Stronach, Chrome would be safely tucked away in his breeding shed right now. As other trainers have been quoted about their horses....."I want to keep him in bubblewrap until the big race". Well, a muddy strip at LosAl ain't no bubblewrap no matter the competition.
Quote from: stark on December 16, 2016, 05:57:58 AM
I just REALLY don't like the whole idea, period. If I had a million dollar prized possession there is no way I'd push my luck and ask for more, you can't convince me that greed is good Gordon. If it wasn't for some cockamamie idea of Stronach, Chrome would be safely tucked away in his breeding shed right now. As other trainers have been quoted about their horses....."I want to keep him in bubblewrap until the big race". Well, a muddy strip at LosAl ain't no bubblewrap no matter the competition.
Ditto.
Generally speaking I don't disagree with you, but it won't be muddy.
I don't think he'll run unless the track is fast, so that's not a worry for me. My problem is here you have a track crying poverty and thus is trying to give away two Gr1 races and they're putting up 180k for what should be a betless exhibition?
There is a three-day pick six carryover of $308,191 for Saturday's nine-race program.
Congratulations, it looks like they got exactly what the Dr. ordered.
But I don't like holding my breath for minute forty.
Woohoo...won by 8 lengths and new track record. Also, Victor went back to the style of running that best suits Chrome.
Any guess on what the Beyer number will be?
Quote from: stark on December 17, 2016, 04:50:35 PM
Any guess on what the Beyer number will be?
Well, it's Los Alamitos, so that automatically will make the number lower than if the same race was run at Santa Anita, Del Mar, or one of the other traditional thoroughbred tracks.
(Forgive me, but I'm not a fan of speed figures and think they have about as much legitimacy as dosage.)
Heard the TVG guys talking about breaking the track record......
Is that really worth mentioning, 4/5ths off of Uncle Lino at a track that's only been open for 3 years?
How many races have even been run at 1 1/16th? just curious.
Quote from: CA_Chrome on December 17, 2016, 05:04:37 PM
Well, it's Los Alamitos, so that automatically will make the number lower than if the same race was run at Santa Anita, Del Mar, or one of the other traditional thoroughbred tracks.
(Forgive me, but I'm not a fan of speed figures and think they have about as much legitimacy as dosage.)
While I think that how a horse runs fast is more important than how fast a horse runs, speed figures are a useful tool. This is especially true when trying to give context to where a horse might belong. The fact Mohaymen stalled in the mid 90 range from about this time last year through the Fountain of Youth, pretty much told me he wasn't a win threat in the Derby. The race having been run at Los Alamitos shouldn't have any bearing on the BSF per se. It has more to do with how the track was playing. Chrome is a fast horse and had a huge class edge and he ran accordingly. Victor didn't ride him out aggressively but when you win for fun, I guess, who cares?
Quote from: stark on December 17, 2016, 05:09:57 PM
Heard the TVG guys talking about breaking the track record......
Is that really worth mentioning, 4/5ths off of Uncle Lino at a track that's only been open for 3 years?
How many races have even been run at 1 1/16th? just curious.
Track records are an oddity. They're fun to talk about but they don't really mean that much in the scheme of things unless we're talking about a horse like Secretariat who at one time held four track records, two of them world records. When the distance is rarely run at all and even more rarely by top horses, it is what it is. Usually track records are set when the track is souped up to a degree. I remember once upon a time the track record for 6f at Santa Anita was held by a claimer named Pleasure Shack who set it on a sealed sloppy track. Nowadays we'd call it wet fast but that designation didn't exist then. The last two world records for 6.5f were set at EMD. I'll send you the profit on Chromie's $2.00 win bet if you can name the two horses.
I keep saying chinook pass was one of the fastest horses I've ever seen?
Quote from: stark on December 17, 2016, 04:50:35 PM
Any guess on what the Beyer number will be?
10 California Chrome
1044 Point Piper
849 Papacoolpapacool
79
FWIW
the 2,3,8 would have paid over $500 to win!
:OMG:
Quote from: curtis on December 17, 2016, 07:31:38 PM
While I think that how a horse runs fast is more important than how fast a horse runs, speed figures are a useful tool. This is especially true when trying to give context to where a horse might belong. The fact Mohaymen stalled in the mid 90 range from about this time last year through the Fountain of Youth, pretty much told me he wasn't a win threat in the Derby. The race having been run at Los Alamitos shouldn't have any bearing on the BSF per se. It has more to do with how the track was playing. Chrome is a fast horse and had a huge class edge and he ran accordingly. Victor didn't ride him out aggressively but when you win for fun, I guess, who cares?
Hi Curtis. See what I mean about speed figures? Chrome was given a 104 Beyer for the Winter Challenge even though he ran fast and won by 12. Those who have a lot of faith in such numbers would say Chrome regressed by 15 points from the Breeders Cup Classic, but that's obviously nonsense. I'm glad I predicted it would be a low number instead of waiting until after it was published to comment. The Winter Challenge was an ungraded stakes on a track not among the tops in the sport, and against lower class horses. No way in heck it would receive a big Beyer even if Chrome sprouted wings and won in 30 seconds.
Some people also say the BCC was Chrome's best race because he was assigned his highest Beyer of 119, but the BCC was not his best race. The Dubai World Cup was by far his best race. He won in track record time with his saddle slipped over his hips. But, of course, the DWC was not rated by Beyer, so there's no artificial ratings number for it. I wanted to add this photo (courtesy Taylor Made Stallions) of Chrome winning the DWC as a reminder of just what an amazing performance that was by both Chrome and Victor:
(http://www.taylormadestallions.com/Domains/www.taylormadestallions.com/CMSFiles/Photos/Medium/chrome-dubai-4_resized3-26-2016-14-38-24-151.jpg)
Just curious what were Pointpiper and Papacool last couple of Beyer numbers leading up to this, better or worse than the 84/79s they got assigned?
Quote from: stark on December 18, 2016, 05:09:51 PM
Just curious what were Pointpiper and Papacool last couple of Beyer numbers leading up to this, better or worse than the 84/79s they got assigned?
Point Piper:
10/4 BEL: 94
8/14 EMD: 103
The last BSF lower than 90 that PP ran was in July of 2015 on the turf, however he could be regressing off the monster 103 when he set the record in the Longacres Mile 8/14
Edit: this doesn't include his Dirt Mile since I spaced and was getting ready for work at the,same time.
I don't have Papacoolpapacool's #s on hand...
Quote from: peeptoad on December 19, 2016, 02:48:11 AMhe could be regressing off the monster 103
Or speed figures actually could be what I believe them to be...nonsense. Point Piper just ran a huge effort to be second to California Chrome, for heaven's sake. Please don't take that effort away from Piper due to subjective speed figures.
Quote from: CA_Chrome on December 19, 2016, 04:13:40 AM
Or speed figures actually could be what I believe them to be...nonsense. Point Piper just ran a huge effort to be second to California Chrome, for heaven's sake. Please don't take that effort away from Piper due to subjective speed figures.
I'm sorry you feel that they're nonsense. I absolutely do not believe that and believe that there is some validity in them, but they cannot be taken at face value.
No one is taking anything away from Point Piper except for you, since
you are the person who feels the fig assigned is an insult.
The person (in this case Beyer) who created the fig neither insulted the horse nor his fans... he simply made an objective fig based on how fast Point Piper ran the race at the distance at Los Al last Saturday.
Quote from: CA_Chrome on December 18, 2016, 01:38:33 PM
Hi Curtis. See what I mean about speed figures? Chrome was given a 104 Beyer for the Winter Challenge even though he ran fast and won by 12. Those who have a lot of faith in such numbers would say Chrome regressed by 15 points from the Breeders Cup Classic, but that's obviously nonsense. I'm glad I predicted it would be a low number instead of waiting until after it was published to comment. The Winter Challenge was an ungraded stakes on a track not among the tops in the sport, and against lower class horses. No way in heck it would receive a big Beyer even if Chrome sprouted wings and won in 30 seconds.
Some people also say the BCC was Chrome's best race because he was assigned his highest Beyer of 119, but the BCC was not his best race. The Dubai World Cup was by far his best race. He won in track record time with his saddle slipped over his hips. But, of course, the DWC was not rated by Beyer, so there's no artificial ratings number for it. I wanted to add this photo (courtesy Taylor Made Stallions) of Chrome winning the DWC as a reminder of just what an amazing performance that was by both Chrome and Victor:
From this post I can objectively state that you know
nothing about how (BSF) speed figures are developed. The mere fact that you are talking offense at the number assigned is complete and utter proof of this. They have nothing to do with personal opinion or the "class" of the race and they do not take trip, traffic trouble, or the relative ease with which a horse wins a race into account. This last point is particularly attributable to the Winter Challenge.
Quote from: peeptoad on December 19, 2016, 05:57:35 AM
From this post I can objectively state that you know nothing about how (BSF) speed figures are developed. The mere fact that you are talking offense at the number assigned is complete and utter proof of this. They have nothing to do with personal opinion or the "class" of the race and they do not take trip, traffic trouble, or the relative ease with which a horse wins a race into account. This last point is particularly attributable to the Winter Challenge.
To be fair, I think CA Chrome is more worried about Chromie's Wikipedia page than how speed figures are derived.😉 For the record, I guessed that Chromie ran a 106 on Saturday, so I don't think 104 is that out of line and with no pace to set him up, it figures Point Piper would have regressed. The track was hard as a rock. The Baffert broke his maiden in 8 and change and didn't Dorf have a CA bred 2yo go 35 and change for a mile? It's not like Chromie's fast race was an aberration. Also, California Chrome ran a far better race in the BCC. He was chased early by top horses and trounced all but one. Saturday's race was akin to a future HOF MLB player hitting a tape measure HR while on a rehab assignment in Single A. Fun to watch but...... I know I'm preaching to the choir Peep.
Quote from: stark on December 17, 2016, 10:28:49 PM
I keep saying chinook pass was one of the fastest horses I've ever seen?
You're right Chinook Pass was, oddly he isn't either one of the horses, though you did get one of them, so I'm not out a dime.😉 The legendary duo of Sabertooth and I Keep Saying are the last two horses to own the world record for 6.5f. This is not meant to disparage either horse but their trainer, Jim Penney didn't drop either one in the BC Sprint those years either.
Quote from: CA_Chrome on December 18, 2016, 01:38:33 PM
Hi Curtis. See what I mean about speed figures? Chrome was given a 104 Beyer for the Winter Challenge even though he ran fast and won by 12. Those who have a lot of faith in such numbers would say Chrome regressed by 15 points from the Breeders Cup Classic, but that's obviously nonsense. I'm glad I predicted it would be a low number instead of waiting until after it was published to comment. The Winter Challenge was an ungraded stakes on a track not among the tops in the sport, and against lower class horses. No way in heck it would receive a big Beyer even if Chrome sprouted wings and won in 30 seconds.
Some people also say the BCC was Chrome's best race because he was assigned his highest Beyer of 119, but the BCC was not his best race. The Dubai World Cup was by far his best race. He won in track record time with his saddle slipped over his hips. But, of course, the DWC was not rated by Beyer, so there's no artificial ratings number for it. I wanted to add this photo (courtesy Taylor Made Stallions) of Chrome winning the DWC as a reminder of just what an amazing performance that was by both Chrome and Victor:
While I have had misgivings about BSFs in the past, I have to agree with peeptoad that they do serve an important purpose. But they do not tell the whole story. And they are not intended to.
Do you expect a horse that has peaked with a BSF to run similar BSFs every subsequent outing?
The fact is that Chrome's top BSF was 113 for the 2014 BC Classic. His next race he ran in the San Antonio against Shared Belief...SB received a 106..so Chrome probably got a 103-104 finishing a length and a half in back of SB. Did Chrome regress 10 points? Or was his performance in the BC Classic an anomaly performance?
Folks here know I am as big a fan of California Chrome as anyone and no big fan of BSFs. But the fact is that Arrogate ran two 120 BSFs and Chrome ran a career best 119 and while he had run top BSFs of 113, 112, and 111 this year his numbers were not off the charts like Arrogate's.
And while I think Chrome's Dubai World Cup performance was strong, I actually think his career best performance before the 2016 BC Classic was his performance in the Pacific Classic, and not in the Dubai World Cup. Post-BC Classic I think that his career best performance is the 2016 BC Classic. And this will remain his career best performance in my mind no matter what happens in the Pegasus, simply because I find it unlikely the the field for the Pegasus will rival that of the BC Classic no matter what the speed figure, final time, etc.
Now, could Chrome run a 120 plus BSF winning the Pegasus Stakes beating Arrogate? I think so. I think he has that capability. That level of talent. But loping home in he Winter Challenge was not that performance.
Quote from: curtis on December 19, 2016, 08:10:29 AM
To be fair, I think CA Chrome is more worried about Chromie's Wikipedia page than how speed figures are derived.😉 For the record, I guessed that Chromie ran a 106 on Saturday, so I don't think 104 is that out of line and with no pace to set him up, it figures Point Piper would have regressed. The track was hard as a rock. The Baffert broke his maiden in 8 and change and didn't Dorf have a CA bred 2yo go 35 and change for a mile? It's not like Chromie's fast race was an aberration. Also, California Chrome ran a far better race in the BCC. He was chased early by top horses and trounced all but one. Saturday's race was akin to a future HOF MLB player hitting a tape measure HR while on a rehab assignment in Single A. Fun to watch but...... I know I'm preaching to the choir Peep.
Yes, you are probably right about the Wiki page, however I cringe when people won't even take the time to learn about the stuff that they complain about. I might be guilty of this as well for all I know... And, yes, you are preaching to the choir. ;)
Maybe I came off too harsh in my last post, and Chrome is an excellent horse who just trounced a bad field without even taking a deep breath, so no one should be shocked that the number came back like it did. But, they are, after all, animals whose speed figs (and relative performances) wax and wane over time, not machines that progressively get faster and faster until the sound barrier is broken.
..and now I'm the one doing the preaching. So I go now. Lunch break is almost over anyhow.
:chickendance:
Sorry I brought up the BSF's in the first place, I forget we're not all about gambling, handicapping, comparisons and history here.
But now I have a question about the morning line maker who is obviously a gelding. If ever a horse deserved to be 1/9, this had to be it with a $50,000 minus pool that the house had to pay out.
What was he thinking, 1/5 :lmao:
Do you recall any G1 type horses that were 1/9 on the morning line??
Just curious, thanks.
Quote from: stark on December 19, 2016, 10:05:29 AM
Sorry I brought up the BSF's in the first place, I forget we're not all about gambling, handicapping, comparisons and history here.
But now I have a question about the morning line maker who is obviously a gelding. If ever a horse deserved to be 1/9, this had to be it with a $50,000 minus pool that the house had to pay out.
What was he thinking, 1/5 :lmao:
Do you recall any G1 type horses that were 1/9 on the morning line??
Just curious, thanks.
Stark I will go through my old programs when I get home, but it seems like I recall seeing a 1/9 ML on a HoF horse. Ive got one in my office I just got and Seattle Slew was 1/5 ML when he made his debut in 1978 in an Allowance race at Aqueduct.
Quote from: stark on December 19, 2016, 10:05:29 AM
Sorry I brought up the BSF's in the first place, I forget we're not all about gambling, handicapping, comparisons and history here.
But now I have a question about the morning line maker who is obviously a gelding. If ever a horse deserved to be 1/9, this had to be it with a $50,000 minus pool that the house had to pay out.
What was he thinking, 1/5 :lmao:
Do you recall any G1 type horses that were 1/9 on the morning line??
Just curious, thanks.
I think 1/5 is as low as I've ever seen a m/l maker go. In Chromie's case, 1/9 would have been an overlay. Conversely, 50-1 is as high as you usually see. It was laughable to think that many of those horses would go off at as low as 50-1.
Everyone...please understand that I never intend disrespect to other posters when commenting on this (or any) forum. My opinion regarding speed figures is just that, an opinion. I think there are more people who find value in them than those, like me, who don't, and this is borne out by the fact that Taylor Made is using Chrome's several triple digit Beyers in their stallion advertising. Yet even though mine is a minority opinion, I am not and never will be a fan of speed figures, because they are totally subjective in my view.
Regarding Chrome's best race, I am by no means alone in saying his win in the Dubai World Cup was his best race. Matt and Christina on TVG's Morning Line show before the Winter Challenge rated Chrome's top 10 races. They also picked the DWC as his best race. Here's a link where you can find parts 1 and 2 of their review (scroll down about mid page): https://twitter.com/tvgjoaquin (https://twitter.com/tvgjoaquin) However, the DWC does not have a speed figure attached to it, so people who do respect speed figures will insist that the BCC was his best race. But that's ok. In the long run, it isn't important. What's done is done and we can only look ahead. Looking back is pointless.
Quote from: stark on December 19, 2016, 10:05:29 AM
Sorry I brought up the BSF's in the first place,
Stark, please don't be sorry for bringing up the BSF's (or any topic). From my point of view, this has been a good and pleasant discussion. :)
Chrome's top 12 races...IMHO
1. 2016 Breeders Cup Classic
2. 2016 Pacific Classic
3. 2016 Dubai World Cup
4. 2014 Breeders Cup Classic
5. 2016 San Diego Handicap
6. 2016 Awesome Again Stakes
7. 2014 San Felipe
8. 2014 Kentucky Derby
9. 2016 Winter Challenge
10. 2014 Santa Anita Derby
11. 2014 Preakness Stakes
12. 2014 Hollywood Derby
Regarding speed figures, I think that many people try and use them as representations of things that they are not. Myself, I do not totally understand them which is why I often take them with a grain of salt.
Quote from: Man o Taz on December 20, 2016, 06:35:39 AM
Chrome's top 12 races...IMHO
1. 2016 Breeders Cup Classic
2. 2016 Pacific Classic
3. 2016 Dubai World Cup
I agree these are his best 3, regardless of speed figs. I actually think the Classic was his best career race, despite the loss. I also thought Zenyatta's loss to Blame was probably her best career race as well, given the quality of the competition and her furious late rally.
Quote from: Man o Taz on December 20, 2016, 06:35:39 AM
Regarding speed figures, I think that many people try and use them as representations of things that they are not. Myself, I do not totally understand them which is why I often take them with a grain of salt.
Just curious, what sort of quantifiable measurable statistic do you use to compare horses performances?
Seems like everybody produces a speed figure, Equibase, Brisnet, Ragozin, Thorograph to name a few. The formula, about as secret as CocaCola, differs for each as some emphasize weight carried and ground lost while racing wide while others will include wind resistance. But the fact is that there is a unit of measure for comparison's sake, which ever speed figure you choose to use.
Seems to me to be a basic requirement, athletes can always quote you their fastest marathon time but do they take into consideration the hills and valleys in mile 23 and make adjustments to their raw final time? What do you use if not a speed figure of some sort??
thanks.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cz92il4XcAATdlJ.jpg)
Quote from: stark on December 20, 2016, 09:52:11 AMSeems to me to be a basic requirement, athletes can always quote you their fastest marathon time but do they take into consideration the hills and valleys in mile 23 and make adjustments to their raw final time? What do you use if not a speed figure of some sort??
thanks.
If you type "speed figures" into a Google search, you'll see that only horse racing comes up. To the best of my knowledge, no form of human racing uses speed figures. They only use final times in foot racing, bike racing, car racing, etc. In horse racing, speed figures are seen as a handicapping tool. Are they effective for that purpose? I'm sure it depends on who is answering that question and what experience they have had using figs. Here's is an interesting article from TwinSpires.com by Derek Simon, March 6, 2015 -- Are Speed Figures Still Important? http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2015/3/6/are-speed-figures-still-important (http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2015/3/6/are-speed-figures-still-important) -- The article contains some solid research and might help answer some of your questions.
Quote from: CA_Chrome on December 20, 2016, 05:29:55 PM
If you type "speed figures" into a Google search, you'll see that only horse racing comes up. To the best of my knowledge, no form of human racing uses speed figures. They only use final times in foot racing, bike racing, car racing, etc. In horse racing, speed figures are seen as a handicapping tool. Are they effective for that purpose? I'm sure it depends on who is answering that question and what experience they have had using figs. Here's is an interesting article from TwinSpires.com by Derek Simon, March 6, 2015 -- Are Speed Figures Still Important? http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2015/3/6/are-speed-figures-still-important (http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2015/3/6/are-speed-figures-still-important) -- The article contains some solid research and might help answer some of your questions.
For the life of me I can't figure out the importance of any analysis in horse racing that only looks at the the single last race in a horse's past performances. All that number crunching for what? Are we to believe that people use that system and thus wound up with a negative ROI? Shame on them!
And if we could bet on humans in the Boston Marathon you can bet there'd be some speed figures as well as a shoe board for the handicappers.
Stark, my strong suit most definitely is not math, lol, so possibly that's one element in my skepticism of speed figures. What I do have is a lifetime of watching horses race going back to my childhood in the 1959/1960 period. Who knows how many races I've seen in that half-century. Certainly thousands. So I rely on what I see rather than on numbers on paper. For example, people who rely on speed figures will assume that Chrome regressed from the BCC to the Winter Challenge because his Beyer dropped 15 points, but I know without any doubt that isn't so because of Chrome's behavior and body language before, during and after the Winter Challenge.
What I would like to see leading up to and during the Pegasus for Chrome are the following:
No changes in his workout pattern (prior to BCC his pattern was changed due to weather).
No media or others not on Team Chrome hanging around his stall for hours prior to the race so the horse has a chance to rest and relax.
Chrome drawing outside or nearly outside.
Before the race, Chrome behaving as full of himself as he did before the Winter Challenge.
Victor riding the kind of smart race he's capable of running (as in the DWC).
And, of course, a clean, safe trip.
Quote from: CA_Chrome on December 20, 2016, 06:48:49 PM
For example, people who rely on speed figures will assume that Chrome regressed from the BCC to the Winter Challenge because his Beyer dropped 15 points...
The vast majority of people I know who use figs do
not believe this, so I have to ask how you came to this conclusion?
Honest question...
Quote from: peeptoad on December 21, 2016, 02:39:39 AM
The vast majority of people I know who use figs do not believe this, so I have to ask how you came to this conclusion?
Honest question...
An assumption on my part based on how people I know in my own life use speed figures. Honest answer. :)
Fair enough!
Quote from: stark on December 20, 2016, 09:52:11 AM
Just curious, what sort of quantifiable measurable statistic do you use to compare horses performances?
Seems like everybody produces a speed figure, Equibase, Brisnet, Ragozin, Thorograph to name a few. The formula, about as secret as CocaCola, differs for each as some emphasize weight carried and ground lost while racing wide while others will include wind resistance. But the fact is that there is a unit of measure for comparison's sake, which ever speed figure you choose to use.
Seems to me to be a basic requirement, athletes can always quote you their fastest marathon time but do they take into consideration the hills and valleys in mile 23 and make adjustments to their raw final time? What do you use if not a speed figure of some sort??
thanks.
I use speed figures because as quantifiable measures go they are basically all that is out there. But I use a lot of figures. BSFs, Timeform, Equibase, etc. I do not really use BRIS figures.
I also like to look at Trakus and see how the dynamics of the race played out. I have to admit most of my handicapping is really post-race. I want to understand why what happened in a race happened. This helps me the next time I deal with the horses in an upcoming race. I see if the same challenges exist which may have compromised them or if they are in a better position. And I rely probably too much on peidgree.
Quote from: Man o Taz on December 21, 2016, 06:26:55 AM
And I rely probably too much on peidgree.
I used to look at pedigree where the Triple Crown races were concerned because there is generally less form to go with younger, developing horses, but after the 2011 Belmont stakes I threw that right out the window.
I look at 2011 as an anomaly.
I still like pedigree for all races. And someone also told me once, maybe it was you, that the best routers also make the best sprinters, but because there is more money in routing they do that instead.
I always found that interesting.
So Equibase awarded Chrome's Winter Challenge race their highest speed figure of 2016: https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/218555/california-chrome-earns-top-2016-equibase-speed-figure (https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/218555/california-chrome-earns-top-2016-equibase-speed-figure)
So someone like me who doesn't have faith in speed figures now has whiplash -- a low 104 from Beyer and a high 130 from Equibase. Also, if you skim some of the over 230 comments (and ignore the silly off-point arguments), you'll see people are all over the place about the validity (or lack thereof) of these figures.
Quote from: CA_Chrome on December 22, 2016, 06:12:45 PM
So Equibase awarded Chrome's Winter Challenge race their highest speed figure of 2016: https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/218555/california-chrome-earns-top-2016-equibase-speed-figure (https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/218555/california-chrome-earns-top-2016-equibase-speed-figure)
So someone like me who doesn't have faith in speed figures now has whiplash -- a low 104 from Beyer and a high 130 from Equibase. Also, if you skim some of the over 230 comments (and ignore the silly off-point arguments), you'll see people are all over the place about the validity (or lack thereof) of these figures.
For some who doesn't have faith in something you seem to spend an awful lot of time and energy focusing on it. You'd think with all that spent time you'd have learned something about them by now. And it's if causing you pain, causing you whiplash, please by all means stop focusing on that which you don't like and don't understand.
Quote from: peeptoad on December 23, 2016, 04:23:39 AM
For some who doesn't have faith in something you seem to spend an awful lot of time and energy focusing on it. You'd think with all that spent time you'd have learned something about them by now. And it's if causing you pain, causing you whiplash, please by all means stop focusing on that which you don't like and don't understand.
Such an unnecessarily harsh post on this Friday before Christmas. There is an article about the Equibase speed figure at Bloodhorse.com with now over 250 comments. Seemed worthwhile to me to add it to the discussion here. Sad that it wasn't welcome, but I can happily move on. :rhrse:
But you have to understand that many of the commenters at Bloodhorse are probably like me and do not understand what speed figures are, what they are used for, and what the particular numbers mean. Without this knowledge, it is impossible to really assess their value. :-)
I hope you understand my completely objective point. You yourself are be laboring the issue.
Happy holidays and, yes, please move on.
I no longer care if I make enemies on Internet forums, since I seem to do it no matter how objective I try to be.
I think there are ratings for all kinds of stuff that most people don't know or understand exactly what goes into them. When shopping in the supermarket for beef you can choose from Prime, Select and Choice. Which one do you think is the best? Most would say Prime, but if you prefer the flavor of Select so be it or if your budget says Choice, then Choice it is.
How about shopping at Sears for paint, you can choose between Good, Better and Best. Nobody needs to know how they come up with their rankings in order to make a solid purchase to meet their needs, and best costs more than better!
If you gamble, most will agree you need an edge against the house in order to profit. In horse racing there are Bonnie Ledbetter disciples who never look at a past performance list and they rely on the body language of the horse on the track. Then there are those who use something akin to Beyer Speed Figures to compare this shipper from Emerald Downs jumping up in class at Santa Anita, is he fast enough to compete? And there are those who think the speed figures aren't complicated enough and that stuff like ground loss, weight and wind velocity should be part of the formula so they pay a little more for Ragozin and Thorograph sheets, to each their own I say.
But the point is its all about comparing one horse's performance with another. If you've developed your own system, so be it, congratulations. But some here have said that they take lists from sources like DRF based on Beyer's or some other number with a "grain of salt" simply because they don't understand them, I find that to be more than a tad disrespectful. So in turn and with all due respect, I've got to say that I'll just take your lists and comparisons with a grain of salt, sorry you put so much time and effort into them.
If your point is simply to make a list in 20-20 hindsight and not gamble who the best horses were, which race of a particular horse was their best, then why limit your skills to horse racing? Best Movie, Best Actor, Best President, Best Baseball Player, Best Concert, Best Song, Brunette or Blonde, Stanford or Berkeley, Army or Navy, ohhhh there's so much work to be done!
Merry Friday before Christmas to all.
Quote from: peeptoad on December 23, 2016, 06:21:53 AM
I no longer care if I make enemies on Internet forums...
You haven't made an enemy. I'm not so shallow as to consider someone an enemy whom I've never even met. My interest is the discussion...the conversation.
Quote from: peeptoad on December 23, 2016, 06:21:53 AM
I hope you understand my completely objective point. You yourself are be laboring the issue.
Happy holidays and, yes, please move on.
I no longer care if I make enemies on Internet forums, since I seem to do it no matter how objective I try to be.
Peep - I am totally with you on this!