Thoroughbred Racing Fans

Racing => Racing => Topic started by: stark on September 21, 2016, 05:48:20 PM

Title: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: stark on September 21, 2016, 05:48:20 PM
Odds by Brad Free, comments by Mary Rampellini

Frosted   Kiaran McLaughlin   105-107-123   8-5   BC Classic or BC Dirt Mile, Santa Anita   
McLaughlin said Frosted, who has secured berths in the Classic and Dirt Mile, will train up to BC with race TBD

Runhappy   Laura Wohlers   102-108-104   2-1   G3 Ack Ack, Oct. 1, Churchill   
Winner of last year's BC Sprint shows series of published works in Kentucky in preparation for 4-year-old debut in Ack Ack

Bradester   Eddie Kenneally   72-100-101   8-1   Lukas Classic, Oct. 1, Churchill   
Kenneally said Bradester also under consideration for BC Classic; secured berth for Classic with win in Stephen Foster

Upstart   Rick Violette   103-97-98   10-1   G2 Kelso, Oct. 8, Belmont   
Coming off third-place finish in Whitney, Violette said horse would target Kelso and is candidate for BC Dirt Mile

Gun Runner   Steve Asmussen   102-92-99   12-1   G2 Pennsylvania Derby, Saturday, Parx   
Winchell Thoroughbreds, which co-owns Gun Runner, and Asmussen teamed to win BC Dirt Mile in 2012 with Tapizar

Anchor Down   Todd Pletcher   93-98-105   15-1   G2 Kelso, Oct. 8, Belmont   
Pletcher, who won last year's BC Dirt Mile with Liam's Map, said Anchor Down's status TBD after Kelso

TamarkuzKiaran McLaughlin   102-79-99   20-1   G2 Kelso, Oct. 8, Belmont   
McLaughlin said Tamarkruz could develop into candidate for BC Dirt Mile depending on performance in Kelso

Texas Chrome   J.R. Caldwell   96-95-89   20-1   G3 Oklahoma Derby, Sunday, Remington   
A six-time stakes winner who has run well against Gun Runner and American Freedom could be considered for BC Dirt Mile, per Caldwell

Gun Pit   Caspar Fownes   NA   30-1   BC Dirt Mile, Nov. 4, Santa Anita   
Multiple stakes winner in Hong Kong to train up to BC Dirt Mile, per release from the Hong Kong Jockey Club

Firing Line   Simon Callaghan   82-34-104   30-1   BC Dirt Mile, Nov. 4, Santa Anita   
Callaghan said Firing Line, who last raced in July, still being considered for BC Dirt Mile, but training schedule will have to go "perfectly"
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: peeptoad on September 27, 2016, 09:24:26 AM
I believe Texas Chrome is now confirmed...
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: peeptoad on September 28, 2016, 03:50:02 AM
And Bradester goes in the Lukas Classic at CD Saturday.  He'll likely  face Noble Bird, among others...

Under normal circumstances I would say Runhappy is a huge bet against in the Ack Ack, but they are having trouble even filling the race. Only 2 other possible entrants as of yesterday.
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: peeptoad on September 28, 2016, 09:34:58 AM
Well, they got a couple more to oppose Runhappy (plus the fields for the other CD races):

ACK ACK (race 9, post 4:49 ET)

1. Iron Fist
2. The Truth or Else
3. Tom's Ready
4. Mr. Z
5. Runhappy
6. Schivarelli



LUKAS CLASSIC (race 10, post 5:20 ET)

1. Natchez
2. Honorable Duty
3. Breaking Lucky
4. Hawaakom
5. Rocket Time
6. Noble Bird
7. Bradester
8. Fear the Cowboy
9. Bullards Alley



JEFFERSON CUP (race 7, post 3:47 ET)

1. Torontes
2. Seeking the Soul
3. Surgical Strike
4. One Mean Man
5. Bondurant
6. Barahona
7. Madtap
8. Zapperini
9. Conquest Daddyo
10. Keystoneforvictory
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: Senator L on September 28, 2016, 02:02:18 PM
I don't understand why they're running Run Happy in the mile. Wouldn't you
want to see how far he'll stretch out before a BC race?
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: curtis on September 28, 2016, 03:38:06 PM
Quote from: Senator L on September 28, 2016, 02:02:18 PM
I don't understand why they're running Run Happy in the mile. Wouldn't you
want to see how far he'll stretch out before a BC race?
Isn't the Ack Ack a mile?  I think Mattress Mac and his Merry Band of Monkeys are loony tunes, but a one-turn mile progressing to a two-turn mile isn't the worst progression I've seen.  It would have been great if he could have went 7f first, had he been ready for the Forego, but it is what it is.
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: Senator L on September 28, 2016, 05:01:10 PM
Thanks, for some reason I thought it was 7F
He sure does have a lot of talent. Horses like him
make me ponder the importance of the trainer
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: stark on October 01, 2016, 02:03:32 PM
Well, RUNHAPPY hurts the bridgejumpers finishing off the board at 1/5 in his prep race.

1st:   Tom's Ready   $11.80   $5.20   $6.40
2nd:   Iron Fist      ................$6.40   $12.40
3rd:   Schivarelli   ..........   ................   $18.00
4th:   Runhappy
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: stark on October 03, 2016, 11:53:50 AM
Stevens has mount on Runhappy in Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: Dusty on October 03, 2016, 11:12:12 PM
Quote from: Senator L on September 28, 2016, 02:02:18 PM
I don't understand why they're running Run Happy in the mile. Wouldn't you
want to see how far he'll stretch out before a BC race?

EXACTLY - WHY???
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: stark on October 04, 2016, 07:33:01 AM
Quote from: Dusty on October 03, 2016, 11:12:12 PM
EXACTLY - WHY???

Don't the Runhappy connections have an eye on the Stronach Pegasus @ 1-1/8th in January?
Seems only logical they try and be successful at a mile first, no?
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: Man o Taz on October 05, 2016, 07:41:23 AM
Yes they do. And he is probably headed there no matter what happens in the BC.
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: stark on October 09, 2016, 08:04:27 AM
ARCADIA, Calif. – Firing Line, second in the 2015 Kentucky Derby, will miss the $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at Santa Anita on Nov. 4 after falling behind in recent training.
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: curtis on October 09, 2016, 07:15:05 PM
Quote from: stark on October 09, 2016, 08:04:27 AM
ARCADIA, Calif. – Firing Line, second in the 2015 Kentucky Derby, will miss the $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at Santa Anita on Nov. 4 after falling behind in recent training.
Isn't it time to see what kind of stallion offers are awaiting in New Mexico?
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: stark on October 11, 2016, 08:10:47 AM
Ron Ellis reports that TwinSpires Breeders' Cup Sprint favorite Masochistic is "right on schedule" for the $1.5 million race at six furlongs on Nov. 5. "Everything's perfect," the trainer said. "He worked (one) 12 and three the other day and he'll work again on Thursday." Ellis put to bed earlier reports, saying Masochistic is not a candidate for the Dirt Mile
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: Man o Taz on October 11, 2016, 08:24:25 AM
A shame that Upstart missed the Kelso, but hopefully he at least makes the Cigar Mile if not the Dirt Mile.
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: honneerider on October 11, 2016, 04:52:57 PM
Kaleem Shah's Dortmund will be heading to the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile on Nov. 4 as opposed to the Classic, trainer Bob Baffert told the Daily Racing Form on Tuesday.

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/breeders-cup/dortmund-headed-breeders-cup-dirt-mile-not-classic/
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: stark on October 12, 2016, 08:06:16 AM
Looks to me like Mr. Baffert is going to have a very big day indeed!
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: stark on October 12, 2016, 09:33:53 AM
Runhappy returned to the track for the first time since a fourth-place finish in the Oct. 1 Ack Ack Handicap (gr. III) the morning of Oct. 12 at Keeneland, working a mile in 1:38 4/5. Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens was flown in from California for the drill.

Owner James McIngvale also flew in from Houston to oversee the work.

"He's dead fit, boss," Stevens told McIngvale back at the barn after the move. "He's where he needs to be. I had trouble pulling him up...he actually worked about a mile and an eighth."

Runhappy stood on the track for awhile with a lead pony and then Stevens jogged him around the track clockwise once before turning to get into his work. The track reported Runhappy went a half-mile in :46 2/5.

"His speed is there," Stevens said. "There's no doubt about his stamina, either. I have a clock in my head and I thought he started in :11 4/5 and then went another eighth in :11 3/5. After a half-mile I let him fill back up with air and he took off again. I thought he went the mile in 1:37 or 1:37 2/5. He finished strongly."

Stevens has not been aboard Runhappy since they teamed to win the Malibu Stakes (gr. I) last Dec. 26 at Santa Anita Park.

"He's an adult now," he said. "His cardio is just so good. When he got back to the barn, his ribcage wasn't even moving."
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: Man o Taz on October 12, 2016, 12:00:30 PM
To bad Dortmund will not get another shot at Chrome.

Maybe in the Pegasus.
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: stark on October 14, 2016, 11:04:53 AM
Hmmmm.....

ARCADIA, Calif. – Trainer Bob Baffert this week said Dortmund would run in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, but another major decision regarding that horse is pending.
Baffert said Rafael Bejarano would not ride Dortmund in the Breeders' Cup, but he had yet to decide who would replace him.
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: curtis on October 14, 2016, 12:13:57 PM
Quote from: stark on October 14, 2016, 11:04:53 AM
Hmmmm.....

ARCADIA, Calif. – Trainer Bob Baffert this week said Dortmund would run in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, but another major decision regarding that horse is pending.
Baffert said Rafael Bejarano would not ride Dortmund in the Breeders' Cup, but he had yet to decide who would replace him.
I've never been enamoured with Bejarano on a speed horse so I think this is a good move. It would be nice if it would be Martin Garcia since he seemed to fit the horse well. I'll put money on another Martin.....Pedroza.
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: stark on October 14, 2016, 02:23:19 PM
Quote from: curtis on October 14, 2016, 12:13:57 PM
I've never been enamoured with Bejarano on a speed horse so I think this is a good move. It would be nice if it would be Martin Garcia since he seemed to fit the horse well. I'll put money on another Martin.....Pedroza.

Good pick, you can bet Richie will be on the phone!  I'll guess a couple of others, I recall Flavien Prat working Dortmund down at Del Mar, and Stuart Elliott gets a new lease on life from from Baffert, we'll see. 
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: stark on October 16, 2016, 08:43:52 AM
zoecadman ‏@zoecadman  41m41 minutes ago Arcadia, CA
Great to Martin Garcia back aboard a Baffert worker.  Will be interesting to see who rides Dortmund - those two are a good team ??
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: stark on October 30, 2016, 09:06:19 AM
Co-owner Ron Winchell says "90-percent" chance Gun Runner in DM. Says there would have to be "mass defections from the top" to go in Classic
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: Man o Taz on October 31, 2016, 07:36:27 AM
Makes sense.
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: stark on October 31, 2016, 06:43:48 PM
1 Vyjack Philip D'Amato Flavien Prat 10-1
2 Tom's Ready Dallas Stewart Joel Rosario 12-1
3 Dortmund Bob Baffert Martin Garcia 6-5
4 Point Piper Jerry Hollendorfer Mario Gutierrez 20-1
5 Accelerate John W. Sadler Tyler Baze 20-1
6 Texas Chrome J. R. Caldwell C.J. McMahon 20-1
7 Runhappy Laura Wohlers Gary Stevens 3-1
8 Tamarkuz Kiaran P. McLaughlin Mike Smith 8-1
9 Gun Runner Steven M. Asmussen Florent Geroux 9-2
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: peeptoad on November 01, 2016, 04:20:33 AM
Quote from: Man o Taz on October 11, 2016, 08:24:25 AM
A shame that Upstart missed the Kelso, but hopefully he at least makes the Cigar Mile if not the Dirt Mile.
Upstart was just retired to Airdrie.  Read on Bloodhorse and drf...
Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: peeptoad on November 03, 2016, 05:42:52 AM
TimeformUS consensus says toss Runhappy... I wasn't going to play him anyway so away he goes.

The long shots in this one for me are Vyjack (likely my top pick) and Texas Chrome who may offer huge value underneath. Gun Runner is another I will use; his post is the only real detriment.
So, most likely 1,3,6,9 ex box and then Vyjack at ~8/1 or better...

Title: Re: Breeders Cup DIRT MILE
Post by: peeptoad on November 04, 2016, 08:10:32 AM
Dortmund is the most obvious and likely winner, but I'm going against his terrible price. Will likely box him with Vyjack, Gun Runner, and Texas Chrome for the exacta. Vyjack is my top pick due to his strong late pace and he should get an optimal set up. He will also save ground from post 1, and he's in near career form right now, having just blown them away a G2 stakes field at a mile (on turf). Texas Chrome is not a win candidate for me, but I think he could be strong value underneath, particualrly if the early pace is swift. Despite the class hike, he is tough, on the improve and he'll be a bomb price. Gun Runner might be my top pick if not for the post... I'll still use him somehow.