MOT's Derby Dozen

[Man o Taz]

Well, we have been unable to lure Matt Converse here to offer his suggestions, so I'll steal his angle with MOT's Derby Dozen. I figure MOT's Derby Dozen is a lesser facsimile of Matt's Derby Dozen. (SMILE)

And you do not have to wait for the countdown.

1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull)

He carried six pounds more than the Honor Code and lost by a nose in the Remsen Stakes at 9 furlongs. I always give a lot of credit to horses that can win or compete at 9 furlongs as a two year old. His breeding is a shade below Honor Code being a grandson of Empire Maker and Holy Bull. I like this horse and hope he can carry is excellence into the three year old season. This could be Mr. McLaughlin's best shot at a Kentucky Derby win. Owned by

Next race: Jan. 25 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. It would be nice to see a grandson enter and win it.

2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat)

It is hard to imagine a horse more regally bred than Honor Code. Who know - after the long wait - Mr. McGaughey may have lightning strike twice. He won the Remsen. He was second in the Champagne against Havana who many rank as the top two year old this year so he is certainly one to watch.

Next race: Feb. 22 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.   

3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat)

Shared Belief has done everything right in his three starts. He is the only G1 winning two year old with multiple graded stakes wins also having taken the G3 Hollywood Preview Stakes in addition to the Hollywood Futurity. His 106 BSF leads his generation - at least as far as graded stakes winners go. The big question mark is how he will fare on dirt, but Mr. Hollendorfer's barn has shown it knows how to get a horse ready for dirt and travel so he is one to watch. The Robert Lewis and the Santa Anita Derby as next on the card. 

Next race: Feb. 8 Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park.

4. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere)

His stable mate has shown himself to be dynamic. He has two stakes wins including a G1 win in the Del Mar Futurity and has run well on dirt. The biggest question I see with him is whether or not he is moving forward or peaked with his win at Del Mar. If he moves forward, this son of Bertrando is the one to watch.

Next race: Jan. 25 California Cup Derby at Santa Anita Park.

5. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man)

His promising sire, a son of Unbridled Song, finished second in the 2009 Belmont Stakes and suffered a career ending injury so he should be able to get the distance. Havana has been impressive winning his debut at Saratoga and then the G1 Champagne Stakes over Honor Code and Strong Mandate. Then he finished a close second to New Year's Day having a miserable trip in the BC Juvenile.

Next race: Jan. 25 G3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

6. New Year's Day (Street Cry and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union)

This BC Juvenile winner beat a decent field of G1 winning horses in his first stakes effort. Well, the last horse to break the BC Juvenile jinx was a son of Street Cry, so who knows?

Next race: Feb. 8 Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park.

7. Strong Mandate ( Tiznow and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister)

This G1 winning Hopeful Stakes winner who finished third in the BC Juvenile and 7th in the Champagne Stakes is a son of Tiznow. If all goes as planned this could be Mr. Lukas's next Triple Crown race winner.

Next race: Feb. 17 G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park

8. Bond Holder (Mineshaft and Cielo Girl by Conquistador Cielo)

Next race: San Felipe/Robert Lewis?

Winner of the G1 Front Runner Stakes at Santa Anita he finished a disappointing 4th in the BC Juvenile and the Hollywood Futurity.

Next race: Feb. 8 Robert B. Lewis Stakes or San Felipe

9. Lunarwarfare (War Pass and Lunar Star by Silver Ghost)

Next race: Unknown.

Third in the Hopeful Stakes he has been recovering from injury I believe. Hopefully he returns to form at 3.

10. Tap It Rich (Tapit and Gold Canyon by Mr. Prospector)

Next race: Unknown.

He's young. He has been asked to do a lot coming off of his maiden win. He finished 5th and 9th in his G1 starts in the BC Juvenile and the Hollywood Futurity. He would not be there if his trainer did not believe in his ability. He did break his maiden on dirt. It is just a question of weather his racing quality lives up to his breeding quality.

11. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio)

Next race: Unknown.

This winner of the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club broke his maiden in a graded stakes over the Churchill Downs surface. The second of two Tapit son's on the list.

12. Corfu (Malibu Moon and Fashion Cat by Forest Wildcat)

Next race: Unknown.

I have always liked this winner of the G2 Saratoga Special. I hope he can find his bearings as a three year old.

Honorable Mentions:

We Miss Artie (Artie Schiller and Athena's Gift by Fusaichi Pegasus)

Next race: Unknown.

This winner of the G1 Breeder's Futurity while possessing turf pedigree on top did finish second to Strong Mandate on the dirt at Belmont Park. On the bottom he certainly has the distance pedigree. While he was disappointing in the BC Juvenile finishing seventh hopefully he can move forward. If his form holds he could be another Dullahan who finished third in the Kentucky Derby.

Laddie Boy (War Pass and Lil's Lassie by Lil's Lad)

Next race: Unknown.

Another War Pass son. I happen to love this Cherokee Run grandsons. I would have thought by the names on the dam's side that Lil E. Tee was in the pedigree but instead its Preakness Stakes winner Pine Bluff on the bottom. His finish second place in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club gets him here.

Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro and Pretty Smart by Beau Genius)

Next race: Jan. 11 Sham Stakes Santa Anita Park.

A friend tells me that he looks spectacular in Mr. Baffert's barn. Looking forward to seeing him compete in his first stakes race.

[Man o Taz]

Couldn't even make it until the end of the year without having to edit... SAD

Sorry to see you go NYD.

I guess that's what Honorable Mentions are for...

1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull)

He carried six pounds more than the Honor Code and lost by a nose in the Remsen Stakes at 9 furlongs. I always give a lot of credit to horses that can win or compete at 9 furlongs as a two year old. His breeding is a shade below Honor Code being a grandson of Empire Maker and Holy Bull. I like this horse and hope he can carry is excellence into the three year old season. This could be Mr. McLaughlin's best shot at a Kentucky Derby win. Owned by

Next race: Jan. 25 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. It would be nice to see a grandson enter and win it.

2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat)

It is hard to imagine a horse more regally bred than Honor Code. Who know - after the long wait - Mr. McGaughey may have lightning strike twice. He won the Remsen. He was second in the Champagne against Havana who many rank as the top two year old this year so he is certainly one to watch.

Next race: Feb. 22 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.   

3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat)

Shared Belief has done everything right in his three starts. He is the only G1 winning two year old with multiple graded stakes wins also having taken the G3 Hollywood Preview Stakes in addition to the Hollywood Futurity. His 106 BSF leads his generation - at least as far as graded stakes winners go. The big question mark is how he will fare on dirt, but Mr. Hollendorfer's barn has shown it knows how to get a horse ready for dirt and travel so he is one to watch. The Robert Lewis and the Santa Anita Derby as next on the card. 

Next race: Jan. 11 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park. 

4. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere)

His stable mate has shown himself to be dynamic. He has two stakes wins including a G1 win in the Del Mar Futurity and has run well on dirt. The biggest question I see with him is whether or not he is moving forward or peaked with his win at Del Mar. If he moves forward, this son of Bertrando is the one to watch.

Next race: Jan. 25 California Cup Derby at Santa Anita Park.

5. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man)

His promising sire, a son of Unbridled Song, finished second in the 2009 Belmont Stakes and suffered a career ending injury so he should be able to get the distance. Havana has been impressive winning his debut at Saratoga and then the G1 Champagne Stakes over Honor Code and Strong Mandate. Then he finished a close second to New Year's Day having a miserable trip in the BC Juvenile.

Next race: Jan. 25 G3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

6. New Year's Day (Street Cry and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union)

This BC Juvenile winner beat a decent field of G1 winning horses in his first stakes effort. Well, the last horse to break the BC Juvenile jinx was a son of Street Cry, so who knows?

Next race: Feb. 8 Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park.

6. Strong Mandate ( and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister)

This G1 winning Hopeful Stakes winner who finished third in the BC Juvenile and 7th in the Champagne Stakes is a son of Tiznow. If all goes as planned this could be Mr. Lukas's next Triple Crown race winner.

Next race: Feb. 17 G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park

7. Bond Holder (Mineshaft and Cielo Girl by Conquistador Cielo)

Next race: Feb. 8 Robert B. Lewis Stakes or Mar. 8 San Felipe Stakes.

Winner of the G1 Front Runner Stakes at Santa Anita he finished a disappointing 4th in the BC Juvenile and the Hollywood Futurity.

8. Lunarwarfare (War Pass and Lunar Star by Silver Ghost)

Next race: Unknown.

Third in the Hopeful Stakes he has been recovering from injury I believe. Hopefully he returns to form at 3.

9. Tap It Rich (Tapit and Gold Canyon by Mr. Prospector)

Next race: Unknown.

He's young. He has been asked to do a lot coming off of his maiden win. He finished 5th and 9th in his G1 starts in the BC Juvenile and the Hollywood Futurity. He would not be there if his trainer did not believe in his ability. He did break his maiden on dirt. It is just a question of weather his racing quality lives up to his breeding quality.

10. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio)

Next race: Unknown.

This winner of the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club broke his maiden in a graded stakes over the Churchill Downs surface. The second of two Tapit son's on the list.

11. Corfu (Malibu Moon and Fashion Cat by Forest Wildcat)

Next race: Unknown.

I have always liked this winner of the G2 Saratoga Special. I hope he can find his bearings as a three year old.

12. Laddie Boy (War Pass and Lil's Lassie by Lil's Lad)

Next race: Unknown.

Another War Pass son. I happen to love this Cherokee Run grandsons. I would have thought by the names on the dam's side that Lil E. Tee was in the pedigree but instead its Preakness Stakes winner Pine Bluff on the bottom. His finish second place in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club gets him here.

Honorable Mentions:

We Miss Artie (Artie Schiller and Athena's Gift by Fusaichi Pegasus)

Next race: Unknown.

This winner of the G1 Breeder's Futurity while possessing turf pedigree on top did finish second to Strong Mandate on the dirt at Belmont Park. On the bottom he certainly has the distance pedigree. While he was disappointing in the BC Juvenile finishing seventh hopefully he can move forward. If his form holds he could be another Dullahan who finished third in the Kentucky Derby.

Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro and Pretty Smart by Beau Genius)

Next race: Jan. 11 Sham Stakes Santa Anita Park.

A friend tells me that he looks spectacular in Mr. Baffert's barn. Looking forward to seeing him compete in his first stakes race.

PS - Other folks are welcome to post their picks as well.

[The Tin Man]

The SoCal ponies who have impressed me most are Shared Belief and Indianapolis ... The East Coaster is Havana. 

[The Tin Man]

Indianapolis in the paddock before his one and only race thus far. It's hard to believe this guy is only 2 years old. He's massive for his age!

He was VERY professional and mature beyond his age in the paddock. It REALLY stood out to me. Then he went out and took care of business in an equally professional sense. There's just something about him that makes me say ... WOW!!!

I still haven't mastered the picture posting here ... So just click on the pic and it will become a decent size. 

[attachment deleted by admin]

[The Tin Man]

Here's a good shot of his body too ... Click the pic! 

[attachment deleted by admin]

[Man o Taz]

Nice shots.

I understand that the West coasters Shared Belief and Indianapolis are both now targeting the Sham Stakes on January 11th.

[The Tin Man]

Nice shots.

I understand that the West coasters Shared Belief and Indianapolis are both now targeting the Sham Stakes on January 11th.

I guess Baffert's pretty high on Indianapolis too ... hopping him straight into the Sham off of 1 career race. 

[Man o Taz]

Right. That's why I still have Tap It Rich on my list despite his lackluster performances since his maiden win.

If Mr. Baffert sees something in a horse there is s good chance that the quality is there.

One more poor effort, though, and I think TIR may be a late bloomer targeting summer races more than spring ones.

I do think that he was hoping for an easier field than one including Shared Belief.

[Zenyatta]

I removed some of your posts MOT ... I read them and reread them, thinking. ... huh?   
Anyway, they're gone.

Now, I must voice my displeasure that Shared Belief gets 0 points for winning a G1 race.  Those guys who make these points are a few fries short of a happy meal.

[Man o Taz]

I understood the fact that lesser G1 races like the Del Mar Futurity and perhaps the new Front Runner (former Norfolk Stakes) might not get the nod since it did not in the past - but the Cash Call Futurity had received points and it just seemed a convenient way to dis West Coast horses. Now, the only way West Coasters get any 2 year old points is if they were in the BC Juvenile. 

I want to see your Derby Dozens too!

[Man o Taz]

Updated with latest Derby points/Vegas odds on January 8, 2014.

1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 4/25-1

He carried six pounds more than the Honor Code and lost by a nose in the Remsen Stakes at 9 furlongs. I always give a lot of credit to horses that can win or compete at 9 furlongs as a two year old. His breeding is a shade below Honor Code being a grandson of Empire Maker and Holy Bull. I like this horse and hope he can carry is excellence into the three year old season. This could be Mr. McLaughlin's best shot at a Kentucky Derby win.

Next race: Jan. 25 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. It would be nice to see a grandson enter and win it.

2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat) 14/10-1

It is hard to imagine a horse more regally bred than Honor Code. Who know - after the long wait - Mr. McGaughey may have lightning strike twice. He won the Remsen. He was second in the Champagne against Havana who many rank as the top two year old this year so he is certainly one to watch.

Next race: Feb. 22 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.   

3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat) 0/12-1

Shared Belief has done everything right in his three starts. He is the only G1 winning two year old with multiple graded stakes wins also having taken the G3 Hollywood Preview Stakes in addition to the Hollywood Futurity. His 106 BSF leads his generation - at least as far as graded stakes winners go. The big question mark is how he will fare on dirt, but Mr. Hollendorfer's barn has shown it knows how to get a horse ready for dirt and travel so he is one to watch. The Robert Lewis and the Santa Anita Derby as next on the card. 

Next race: Feb. 8 Robert Lewis Stakes Santa Anita Park?   

4. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere) 2/40-1

His stable mate has shown himself to be dynamic. He has two stakes wins including a G1 win in the Del Mar Futurity and has run well on dirt. The biggest question I see with him is whether or not he is moving forward or peaked with his win at Del Mar. If he moves forward, this son of Bertrando is the one to watch.

Next race: Jan. 25 California Cup Derby at Santa Anita Park.

5. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man) 14/35-1

His promising sire, a son of Unbridled Song, finished second in the 2009 Belmont Stakes and suffered a career ending injury so he should be able to get the distance. Havana has been impressive winning his debut at Saratoga and then the G1 Champagne Stakes over Honor Code and Strong Mandate. Then he finished a close second to New Year's Day having a miserable trip in the BC Juvenile.

Next race: Feb. 22 G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

6. Strong Mandate ( and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister) 30-1

This G1 winning Hopeful Stakes winner who finished third in the BC Juvenile and 7th in the Champagne Stakes is a son of Tiznow. If all goes as planned this could be Mr. Lukas's next Triple Crown race winner.

Next race: Feb. 17 G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park

7. Bond Holder (Mineshaft and Cielo Girl by Conquistador Cielo) 11/50-1

Next race: Feb. 8 Robert B. Lewis Stakes or Mar. 8 San Felipe Stakes.

Winner of the G1 Front Runner Stakes at Santa Anita he finished a disappointing 4th in the BC Juvenile and the Hollywood Futurity.

8. Lunarwarfare (War Pass and Lunar Star by Silver Ghost) 175-1

Next race: Unknown.

Third in the Hopeful Stakes he has been recovering from injury I believe. Hopefully he returns to form at 3.

9. Tap It Rich (Tapit and Gold Canyon by Mr. Prospector) 25-1

Next race: Unknown.

He's young. He has been asked to do a lot coming off of his maiden win. He finished 5th and 9th in his G1 starts in the BC Juvenile and the Hollywood Futurity. He would not be there if his trainer did not believe in his ability. He did break his maiden on dirt. It is just a question of weather his racing quality lives up to his breeding quality.

10. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 12/28-1

Next race: March 29 G2 Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds

This winner of the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club broke his maiden in a graded stakes over the Churchill Downs surface. Two wins on this track bodes well for him if he can earn the points and stretch out. The second of two Tapit son's on the list.

11. Corfu (Malibu Moon and Fashion Cat by Forest Wildcat) 325-1

Next race: Unknown.

I have always liked this winner of the G2 Saratoga Special. I hope he can find his bearings as a three year old.

12. Laddie Boy (War Pass and Lil's Lassie by Lil's Lad) 4/125-1

Next race: Unknown.

Another War Pass son. I happen to love this Cherokee Run grandsons. I would have thought by the names on the dam's side that Lil E. Tee was in the pedigree but instead its Preakness Stakes winner Pine Bluff on the bottom. His finish second place in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club gets him here.

Honorable Mentions:

We Miss Artie (Artie Schiller and Athena's Gift by Fusaichi Pegasus) 10/100-1

Next race: Unknown.

This winner of the G1 Breeder's Futurity while possessing turf pedigree on top did finish second to Strong Mandate on the dirt at Belmont Park. On the bottom he certainly has the distance pedigree. While he was disappointing in the BC Juvenile finishing seventh hopefully he can move forward. If his form holds he could be another Dullahan who finished third in the Kentucky Derby.

Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro and Pretty Smart by Beau Genius) 65-1

Next race: Feb. 8 Robert Lewis Stakes Santa Anita Park?

A friend tells me that he looks spectacular in Mr. Baffert's barn. Looking forward to seeing him compete in his first stakes race.

Mr. Speaker (Pulpit and Salute by Unbridled) 100-1

Next race: Jan. 25 Holy Bully Stakes at Gulfstream Park

I have to admit among my favorite young horses are those from sires I have met in person. Claiborne's Pulpit and Unbridled are among two of my very favorites with Unbridled ranking at the very top since I only got to meet him once. This grandson of Unbridled on the one hand, and A.P. Indy on the other hand - well I am overwhelmed.

His effort in the G3 Dania Beach Stakes was impressive. While this is turf, he does have a dirt pedigree. So, we'll see how he does especially against Cairo Prince and Havana.

[The Tin Man]

I've not focused much on The Derby Trail yet ....

So I've only got 3 thus far ...

Shared Belief
Indianapolis
Havana

In the order ...

The Hollywood Futurity not counting towards The Derby is a farce.

[Man o Taz]

Thanks Tin Man.

Just to offer others some perspective here are what some folks/sites are saying:

ZJ's Kentucky Derby Dozen
http://hoofprintsandhorseplay.blogspot.com/2013/12/zjs-kentucky-derby-dozen-1-12313.html

Current Point Standings from the Kentucky Derby Website
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses

and DRF
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2014-point-standings

Horse Racing Nation
http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2014_contenders

[Man o Taz]

Here are also the latest Las Vegas odds...

http://blogs.courier-journal.com/racing/2014/01/08/kentucky-derby-2014-wynn-las-vegas-updated-odds/

[Man o Taz]

Interesting that neither Shared Belief nor Indianapolis are entered in the Sham Stakes.

Mr. Baffert will send out Midnight Hawk and Mr. Hollendrofer will send out Life Is A Joy.

Mr. Sadler's Kristo is also entered.

Kristo, Rafael Bejarano, 2-1
I'll Wrap It Up, Tyler Baze, 8-1
Life Is a Joy, Corey Nakatani, 12-1
Ontology, Mario Gutierrez, 8-1
Top Fortitude, Kayla Stra, 2-1
Midnight Hawk, Mike Smith, 8-5.