Potential field:
American Freedom?
Arrogate
Beholder
California Chrome
Comfort
Dortmund
Effinex
Exaggerator
Frosted
Gun Runner
Hoppertunity
Melatonin
Mubtaahij
Nyquist
Samraat
Shaman Ghost
Wouldn't it be great if the BC Classic for once had an also eligible list...just a thought...
If Mubtaahij wins the JCGC, does Frosted get entered in the Dirt Mile? I hope not.
And Songbird beats them all.
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 20, 2016, 08:33:23 AM
Wouldn't it be great if the BC Classic for once had an also eligible list...just a thought...
Not if I were the connections living in Kentucky or New York trying to make shipping plans for my horse and travel plans for my 20 closest relatives, I'd like something a little more than AE after my name.
Quote from: afleetphil on September 20, 2016, 11:37:51 AM
And Songbird beats them all.
I hope a lot of people believe that, too. My exacta in the Distaff will be so much the better.
Does Pletcher not have a runner?
Quote from: stark on September 20, 2016, 05:31:30 PM
Does Pletcher not have a runner?
He has no older horses left... (joking, but close to the truth). Stanford and Mshawish were retired a few months ago,weren't they? Those are the only older male horses of Pletcher's I can think of right now. And not sure what's going on with his 3yos, but aside from Arrogate the 3yos may not even factor into the Classic this year.
Quote from: curtis on September 20, 2016, 04:45:32 PM
I hope a lot of people believe that, too. My exacta in the Distaff will be so much the better.
Brad Free @BradFree1
Songbird 5-2 fav, Beholder 3-1 second choice Distaff early odds by Daily Racing Form. Full DRF coverage 2016 Breeders' Cup begins this week.
I think after the PA Derby Nyquist will be in the conversation for BC classsic
We will know after the weekend
Quote from: stark on September 21, 2016, 07:59:07 AM
Brad Free @BradFree1
Songbird 5-2 fav, Beholder 3-1 second choice Distaff early odds by Daily Racing Form. Full DRF coverage 2016 Breeders' Cup begins this week.
the morning line reflects the track bias,wich is speed
Having said that,Beholder is the better bet IMO
Comments by Jay Privman, odds by Mike Watchmaker
California Chrome Art Sherman 113-111-NA 5-2 Awesome Again, SA, Oct. 1
Best horse in the world crushed top-class runners in Pacific Classic
Arrogate Bob Baffert 122-99-103 4-1 Breeders' Cup Classic, SA, Nov. 5
Freakish win in Travers. Will train up to Classic, a la American Pharoah
Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 105-107-123 6-1 BC Dirt Mile Nov. 4 or BC Classic Nov. 5
Brilliant when at his best, and think his best is at a mile, not 1 1/4 miles
Nyquist Doug O'Neill 94-96-103 8-1 Pennsylvania Derby, PRX, Saturday
Derby winner looking to get back in win column after two losses
Melatonin David Hofmans 108-104-107 10-1 Breeders' Cup Classic, SA, Nov. 5
Setbacks now force him to come up to Classic following lengthy layoff
Dortmund Bob Baffert 103-110-103 12-1 Awesome Again, SA, Oct. 1
Will try Chrome third straight time; think Dirt Mile best BC option
Exaggerator Keith Desormeaux 74-101-83 12-1 Pennsylvania Derby, PRX, Saturday
Ran poorly in Travers but has run well at Santa Anita, on both dry and in slop
Shaman Ghost Jimmy Jerkens 106-94-99 15-1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, BEL, Oct. 8
Game win in Woodward over Mubtaahij, Frosted; wants all of 1 1/4m
Effinex Jimmy Jerkens 103-104-92 20-1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, BEL, Oct. 8
Last year's Classic runner-up was only a moderate fourth in Whitney
Hoppertunity Bob Baffert 102-105-NA 20-1 Awesome Again Oct. 1 or JC Gold Cup Oct. 8
Long-fused runner a cut below Chrome but always picks up a piece
AE: Mubtaahij, Beholder, Gun Runner, Watershed, Bradester
(http://www.santaanita.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Kate-Jones-Image-657x438.jpg)
Quote from: stark on September 20, 2016, 05:31:30 PM
Does Pletcher not have a runner?
He has Comfort who was an impressive 2nd in the Whitney skipping the Woodward and won the Seattle Slew Stakes at Belmont two weeks ago en route to the Jockey Club Gold Cup which he has yet to win and Destin if he wants to try him, I guess.
Quote from: stark on September 21, 2016, 03:43:30 PM
Comments by Jay Privman, odds by Mike Watchmaker
California Chrome Art Sherman 113-111-NA 5-2 Awesome Again, SA, Oct. 1
Best horse in the world crushed top-class runners in Pacific Classic
Arrogate Bob Baffert 122-99-103 4-1 Breeders' Cup Classic, SA, Nov. 5
Freakish win in Travers. Will train up to Classic, a la American Pharoah
Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 105-107-123 6-1 BC Dirt Mile Nov. 4 or BC Classic Nov. 5
Brilliant when at his best, and think his best is at a mile, not 1 1/4 miles
Nyquist Doug O'Neill 94-96-103 8-1 Pennsylvania Derby, PRX, Saturday
Derby winner looking to get back in win column after two losses
Melatonin David Hofmans 108-104-107 10-1 Breeders' Cup Classic, SA, Nov. 5
Setbacks now force him to come up to Classic following lengthy layoff
Dortmund Bob Baffert 103-110-103 12-1 Awesome Again, SA, Oct. 1
Will try Chrome third straight time; think Dirt Mile best BC option
Exaggerator Keith Desormeaux 74-101-83 12-1 Pennsylvania Derby, PRX, Saturday
Ran poorly in Travers but has run well at Santa Anita, on both dry and in slop
Shaman Ghost Jimmy Jerkens 106-94-99 15-1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, BEL, Oct. 8
Game win in Woodward over Mubtaahij, Frosted; wants all of 1 1/4m
Effinex Jimmy Jerkens 103-104-92 20-1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, BEL, Oct. 8
Last year's Classic runner-up was only a moderate fourth in Whitney
Hoppertunity Bob Baffert 102-105-NA 20-1 Awesome Again Oct. 1 or JC Gold Cup Oct. 8
Long-fused runner a cut below Chrome but always picks up a piece
AE: Mubtaahij, Beholder, Gun Runner, Watershed, Bradester
Jay should know Bradester is pointed to the Dirt Mile. Has been all year. Samraat is another entry he could think of. And Exaggerator should be given more serious consideration with his 3 G1 wins at 9 furlongs or more.
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 22, 2016, 11:46:34 AM
Jay should know Bradester is pointed to the Dirt Mile. Has been all year.
Sometimes owners make better calls than the trainers, ie the Stephen Foster in June so we'll have to wait and see.....
Bradester earned an expenses-paid berth into the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic on Nov. 5 at Santa Anita, but trainer Eddie Kenneally said he was unsure whether that 1 1/4-mile race will be an eventual goal.
"He'd never won at a mile and an eighth before," said Kenneally. "We're going to take this a day at a time and enjoy it."
Right up until entries were taken Wednesday, Kenneally wasn't sure Bradester would even run in the Foster.
"We weren't sure whether to enter or not," he said, but Sutton "encouraged me to go ahead. The horse had been training so well, and it was right here. It was a great call by Joe."
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 22, 2016, 11:46:34 AM
Jay should know Bradester is pointed to the Dirt Mile. Has been all year. Samraat is another entry he could think of. And Exaggerator should be given more serious consideration with his 3 G1 wins at 9 furlongs or more.
Bradester is actually on the Dirt Mile list, he's listed at 8-1. As Stark has alluded, the owners may want to take a chance in the Classic. It doesn't sound as if
they have necessarily been pointing towards the Dirt Mile all year.
I think Exaggerator is where he should be at 12-1. There will be plenty of speed to set up his run but he may not get the right trip as he may have to go pretty wide in a big field. Also, the speed won't drop away as readily as it has in those restricted races, especially those he's been winning in the slop.
The thing about Chrome is a lot of people seem to underestimate him even with his outstanding record. This year he has been geared down or ridden out in all his races except the San Diego Hcp, so his final times are misleading even when highly rated. But we have not seen the bottom of this horse yet, and pros like Gary Stevens have said as much.
If Victor had let him run all the way in the Pacific Classic, for example, Chrome easily could have run somewhere under 2:00. He ran the 2nd fastest time in the storied history of the Santa Anita Derby, carried 130 pounds in a Dubai hcp, and won the Dubai World Cup in track record time with a saddle slipped all the way over his rump. He's won from 4 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/14 miles, on synthetic, dirt and grass. Chrome is a versatile, handy sort who can stalk the pace or make the pace.
Chrome is looking absolutely magnificent these days. If all continues to go well with him, Chrome will take some beating in the BCC.
Santa Anita Handicap winner Melatonin worked five furlongs Wednesday morning in 1:02 as he prepares for the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita Nov. 5. His fractional times were 23.80, 37 flat and 50 flat.
"He did it nice and easy," trainer David Hofmans said. "We're pointing to the Breeders' Cup Classic. He seems to like the track. It's in very good condition.
"We backed off training over the main track at Del Mar, and although we jogged him and galloped him on the training track, I lost enough time where I couldn't make the Awesome Again. He likes time between his races but this is a lot of time and the Awesome Again is a tough spot."
Melatonin last raced on June 25, winning the Grade I Gold Cup at Santa Anita earning a fees paid berth to the Classic valued at $150,000.
Less than two weeks until the Awesome Again and still Chrome is the only certain entrant. Dortmund is listed as possible.
Quote from: CA_Chrome on September 22, 2016, 07:55:00 PM
Less than two weeks until the Awesome Again and still Chrome is the only certain entrant. Dortmund is listed as possible.
Dortmund appears to be getting plenty ready for something!
Santa Anita 9/19/2016 Dirt 5F 59.80 Handily 4/52
Santa Anita 9/12/2016 Dirt 5F 59.20 Handily 2/41
Del Mar...... 9/05/2016 Dirt 5F 58.80 Handily 1/27
Thing about Dortmund is that he always works fast at shorter distances. Doesn't necessarily translate into a win in the afternoon. Baffert's general training approach seems to be to work his horses fast. The key is not how fast they go, but how they go. I haven't had the benefit of seeing any videos of Dortmund's works, so have no idea how he goes. (I have trouble believing there won't be more than two entries in the Awesome Again, but so far only Chrome and Dortmund are listed for it.)
Dortmund's work tab since June:
06/28/2016 LA 5F :59.80 Dirt Fast H
07/05/2016 SA 6F 1:11.20 Dirt Fast H
07/10/2016 SA 6F 1:13.20 Dirt Fast H G
07/17/2016 DMR 6F 1:12.00 Dirt Fast H
08/01/2016 DMR 4F :48.00 Dirt Fast H
08/07/2016 DMR 5F :59.20 Dirt Fast H
08/14/2016 DMR 7F 1:24.60 Dirt Fast H
09/05/2016 DMR 5F :58.80 Dirt Fast H
09/12/2016 SA 5F :59.20 Dirt Fast H
09/19/2016 SA 5F :59.80 Dirt Fast H
Edited to say I've found a video of Dortmund's last work: http://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/dortmund-59-80-and-hoppertunity-100-00-work-5-furlongs-at-santa-anita-park-on-september-19th-2016/ (http://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/dortmund-59-80-and-hoppertunity-100-00-work-5-furlongs-at-santa-anita-park-on-september-19th-2016/). Viewers can decided for themselves about how Dortmund worked.
Quote from: curtis on September 22, 2016, 03:26:33 PM
Bradester is actually on the Dirt Mile list, he's listed at 8-1. As Stark has alluded, the owners may want to take a chance in the Classic. It doesn't sound as if they have necessarily been pointing towards the Dirt Mile all year.
I think Exaggerator is where he should be at 12-1. There will be plenty of speed to set up his run but he may not get the right trip as he may have to go pretty wide in a big field. Also, the speed won't drop away as readily as it has in those restricted races, especially those he's been winning in the slop.
Maybe things change. This summer he was when I spoke to him.
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 20, 2016, 08:33:23 AM
Potential field:
American Freedom?
Arrogate
Beholder
California Chrome
Comfort
Dortmund
Effinex
Exaggerator
Frosted
Gun Runner
Hoppertunity
Melatonin
Mubtaahij
Nyquist
Samraat
Shaman Ghost
Wouldn't it be great if the BC Classic for once had an also eligible list...just a thought...
If Mubtaahij wins the JCGC, does Frosted get entered in the Dirt Mile? I hope not.
I would hope after their last performance that Exaggerator is scratched from the BC Classic. He had no excuses and seemed to be training well up to the race and had nothing. It may be best if you want to race him again this year point him to the Clark and let him train at Churchill until then.
If Nyquist gets back on a normal training routine with 4-6 furlong works I think he is still an option for Breeders Cup Classic if he looks like he is training well up to it.
American Freedom may be skipping the Classic since he has yet to have a post-Travers work. Maybe he is being pointed to the Clark.
Does Connect with his win in the PA Derby get pointed to the Classic?
Gun Runner does not look like he wants the added distance.
So, other than Arrogate, there may not be another competitive 3 year old unless Connect enters.
I believe Gun Runner is going to the Dirt Mile, not the Classic. Think I read that post-PA Derby somewhere.
Arrogate, half in 48.40 on Baffert watch. Out in 5f in 1:01.40 BREEZING
WOW - runs so fast he's blurry :chickendance:
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 27, 2016, 09:17:14 AM
I would hope after their last performance that Exaggerator is scratched from the BC Classic. He had no excuses and seemed to be training well up to the race and had nothing. It may be best if you want to race him again this year point him to the Clark and let him train at Churchill until then.
If Nyquist gets back on a normal training routine with 4-6 furlong works I think he is still an option for Breeders Cup Classic if he looks like he is training well up to it.
American Freedom may be skipping the Classic since he has yet to have a post-Travers work. Maybe he is being pointed to the Clark.
Does Connect with his win in the PA Derby get pointed to the Classic?
Gun Runner does not look like he wants the added distance.
So, other than Arrogate, there may not be another competitive 3 year old unless Connect enters.
I'd actually point Exaggerator to the Cigar Mile and train him up to it. I think he could really be effective at a one-turn mile and since I don't think you'll see him next year, it may be the best way to go out with a win.
I don't know what the big picture is with Nyquist. If they are planning on running him next year, the only BC race that makes sense to me at this point is the Dirt Mile. If he could win or be competitive, it would give them something on which to build. I would suppose he'll end up going in Frankie's Fabulous Mega Million since he's somewhat proven over the track. If he's not up to it, maybe a match race on the undercard against Toews On Ice with Eddie Olczyk calling the race. ;)
Quote from: Senator L on September 27, 2016, 01:10:03 PM
WOW - runs so fast he's blurry :chickendance:
Something about that photo makes the colt look awkward. Whether it's the fact that it is out-of-focus, or it's the angle, or the shadows, or his low-headed way of going, but the photo isn't flattering to him. I'm sure it's only the photo, though, since most Thoroughbreds to me range from attractive to gorgeous in looks.
I think that photo is also low res which doesn't help :chickendance:
It's also a 3/4 view which creates distortion. Scroll back to some of those photos the Bring Chrome Home loonies were posting when he was in England and this photo looks pretty good. ;)
Fixed
Trainer Keith Desormeaux said Santa Anita Derby and Preakness winner Exaggerator was "regrouping at Churchill Downs" after his disappointing seventh-place finish in the Pennsylvania Derby last Saturday. "We'll make a decision on his future after next week."
Quote from: curtis on September 27, 2016, 04:03:30 PM
I'd actually point Exaggerator to the Cigar Mile and train him up to it. I think he could really be effective at a one-turn mile and since I don't think you'll see him next year, it may be the best way to go out with a win.
I don't know what the big picture is with Nyquist. If they are planning on running him next year, the only BC race that makes sense to me at this point is the Dirt Mile. If he could win or be competitive, it would give them something on which to build. I would suppose he'll end up going in Frankie's Fabulous Mega Million since he's somewhat proven over the track. If he's not up to it, maybe a match race on the undercard against Toews On Ice with Eddie Olczyk calling the race. ;)
I would like that. Chance to see him again. But I do not think he has an affinity for the NY tracks. And there may be more of a chance for rain in Kentucky than NY in November. ;-)
Nyquist I see in the BC Classic, Malibu and Pegasus and off to Darley...taking two more shots to get an elusive win to put him over the top for the 3 year old championship.
Of course, what Arrogate does will also be a factor.
Exaggerator, the winner of three Grade 1 races this year, including the Preakness Stakes, went to WinStar Farm on Friday for a freshening, according to his trainer, Keith Desormeaux.
Desormeaux said he is unsure whether Exaggerator would make the Breeders' Cup Classic, though he acknowledged, "It may be a little close to the race to think he'd return from a freshening and run, but we'll see what happens."
WinStar in April acquired the breeding rights to Exaggerator, who will stand at the farm upon retirement. Desormeaux and Elliott Walden, the president and chief executive of WinStar, both confirmed that WinStar was now in control of managing Exaggerator's career.
Walden on Friday said Exaggerator was going to WinStar to be "re-evaluated."
"He needs at least a brief freshening," Walden said. "He'll be X-rayed, and we'll see where we're at. We'll see what the next week brings and see what is decided."
http://www.drf.com/news/exaggerator-gets-freshening
Sounds like the BC is unlikely anyway, then...
Unless they think he can return in that short turnaround time and actually win the Classic, not running him seems the sensible solution.
Exaggerator will be retired, my prediction. He won 3 big races in the slop, and he's by a top stallion. I just can't see him maturing into a dry dirt track handicap horse.
After Chrome's win today, he wouldn't stand a chance anyway.
With Chrome retiring he might stand a chance unless Arrogate will definitely be running in 2017.
Doug O'Neill says Nyquist will point to the Breeders' Cup Classic. "He's doing good. If everything stays good, we're going to the Classic."
Despite reservations expressed by owner J. Paul Reddam after what he called "the worst performance of (Nyquist's) life" in the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II), the Uncle Mo colt will target the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I).
That's good to hear. Even if he ultimately does not run well the Derby winner deserves to be in the Classic imo.
Agreed. He has not raced nearly as much as Exaggerator.
6 starts vs. 9 starts.
Exaggerator, the winner of the Preakness Stakes and the only 3-year-old male to win three Grade 1 races this year, was officially retired on Monday and will stand at stud beginning next year at WinStar Farm in Versailles, Ky., it was announced by WinStar.
The announcement was not a surprise, as Exaggerator had been taken out of training two weeks ago following a disappointing performance in the Pennsylvania Derby and had been taken to WinStar, which had taken over control of Exaggerator's career.
Potential field:
American Freedom - Unlikely
Arrogate Probable
Beholder Unlikely
California Chrome - Probable
Comfort
Creator
Dortmund - Possible
Effinex - Probable
Exaggerator
Frosted - Probable
Gun Runner
Hoppertunity - Probable
Melatonin - Probable
Mubtaahij - Possible
Nyquist - Probable
Samraat - Possible - Could be training
Shaman Ghost - Probable
The field dwindles...
Does Baffert enter 4 horses? Probably not which would mean that American Freedom and/or Dortmund likely do not get the nod.
Does McLaughlin enter 2 horses? Possible. I would not toss Mubtaahij off of that performance in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He had never raced on an off track before and so I think his JCGC is a toss. He has run well all year and deserves a shot at the BCC with his 2nd by 3 3/4 lengths in the Dubai World Cup and a loss by just over 1 1/2 lengths to Effinex in the Suburban Handicap.
Effinex put together a nice strong of races to end 2015, maybe he does so in 2016, too.
There may only be 2 3 year olds in the BC Classic this year? When is the last time that happened? There were 3 last year. 6 the year before.
A field of 8-11...I had hoped for more but it is not playing out that way...
Has Hard Aces been declared out? Given the possible pace, you'd think Sadler would give him a shot to clunk up for fourth.
Travers winner Arrogate worked a seven furlongs this morning at Santa Anita in 1:25.40
Quote from: curtis on October 11, 2016, 11:16:04 AM
Has Hard Aces been declared out? Given the possible pace, you'd think Sadler would give him a shot to clunk up for fourth.
You know I have heard nothing about Hard Aces as a possibility for this year's BC Classic. Last year, he had won a win and you're in so the fees were paid. Perhaps they do not want to ante up the entry fee.
David Grening @DRFGrening
Kiaran also said that Mubtaahij no longer under BC consideration. Will soon begin quarantine for a return to Dubai
Really nice article about Hoppertunity on DRF+ right now: http://www.drf.com/news/premium/breeders-cup-classic-hoppertunity-bafferts-overlooked-multimillionaire (http://www.drf.com/news/premium/breeders-cup-classic-hoppertunity-bafferts-overlooked-multimillionaire)
I love this guy; he's probably my favorite horse in training right now. I hope he hits the board on Nov. 5.
He should get a great set up. I think Chrome and Arrogate will go at it
right from the start
Quote from: Man o Taz on October 12, 2016, 12:18:32 PM
You know I have heard nothing about Hard Aces as a possibility for this year's BC Classic. Last year, he had won a win and you're in so the fees were paid. Perhaps they do not want to ante up the entry fee.
Worked 49 'n change this morning.
Chrome worked a half in :48 flat this morning at Los Alamitos, with a gallop out to 5F in 1:01 flat. Chrome went the final furlong in a fast :11 2/5. http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/215869/california-chrome-works-for-bc-at-los-al (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/215869/california-chrome-works-for-bc-at-los-al)
Quote from: stark on October 14, 2016, 10:21:27 AM
Worked 49 'n change this morning.
Thanks. Any word if he goes in the Classic or if he is pointing to a different race?
Jay Privman @DRFPrivman 44m44 minutes ago
Arrogate just now @santaanitapark with another strong work, 7f in 1:24.80 on Baffert watch preparing for BC Classic
Baffert on Arrogate: "He's a big, long-jumping thing, isn't he? He needs a full mile and a quarter."
Has two more works before BC Classic
BC Classic: Frosted works six furlongs in 1:11 at Greentree, BC race decision "tomorrow," per McLaughlin
Quote from: stark on October 18, 2016, 08:52:34 AM
Jay Privman @DRFPrivman 44m44 minutes ago
Arrogate just now @santaanitapark with another strong work, 7f in 1:24.80 on Baffert watch preparing for BC Classic
Baffert on Arrogate: "He's a big, long-jumping thing, isn't he? He needs a full mile and a quarter."
Has two more works before BC Classic
Mor Spirit working 7F in 1:24.3 ain't no slouch of a workmate, watch the video!!!!
How strategic is this??
http://www.xbtv.com/video/bcworks/arrogate-worked-7-furlongs-in-124-40-outside-of-mor-spirit-at-santa-anita-park-on-october-18th-2016/
I thought Mor Spirit out worked him, it didn't seem the rider ever moved on him.
Arrogate sure did catch up quick, do you think he'll come from off the pace?
Quote from: Senator L on October 19, 2016, 08:47:41 AM
I thought Mor Spirit out worked him, it didn't seem the rider ever moved on him.
Arrogate sure did catch up quick, do you think he'll come from off the pace?
There are a few certain horses in our lifetime where your confidence level goes way up as they turn for home, I'm thinkin ARROGATE is one of them!
If he's a half a length back or ten lengths off of it, he's got that look in his eye of a smart horse that screams "I know when the real racing starts" and Trevor Denman would have a field day.....he just jumped in at the quarter pole, lengthening his stride, they'd have to sprout wings etc.
EddieD would have been the perfect jock for him, up on the lead or closing with a rush, it's going to be exciting.
I don't think he'll quit, HEART going 10F is a big handicapping factor that's sometimes tough to see for the number crunchers.
I'd just like to say that people have been looking for a horse to beat Chrome all year, but he's taken on all comers and won easily in every race except the San Diego Hcp. Chrome has won with his saddle slipped over his hips. He's won from the outside and inside; from a wide stalking position and on the lead. He's able to go 1:09 and change through six, accelerate at the head of the stretch, then win geared down. Chrome showed his guts and class in the San Diego and his heart in the Dubai World Cup. He's quick and handy. A smart handicapper would never underestimate him.
As for Arrogate, although he could be any kind, a smart handicapper would at least recognize that this colt is facing a far tougher challenge in the BCC than he's ever faced before in his short career.
Quote from: CA_Chrome on October 19, 2016, 08:09:48 PM
I'd just like to say that people have been looking for a horse to beat Chrome all year, but he's taken on all comers and won easily in every race except the San Diego Hcp. Chrome has won with his saddle slipped over his hips. He's won from the outside and inside; from a wide stalking position and on the lead. He's able to go 1:09 and change through six, accelerate at the head of the stretch, then win geared down. Chrome showed his guts and class in the San Diego and his heart in the Dubai World Cup. He's quick and handy. A smart handicapper would never underestimate him.
As for Arrogate, although he could be any kind, a smart handicapper would at least recognize that this colt is facing a far tougher challenge in the BCC than he's ever faced before in his short career.
Smart handicappers look at races differently. There's the bridgejumper looking for the sure thing, a quick 5% return on his show investment, personally I don't think it's very wise. Then there's the TVG P4 player who tries to piece together one winning P4 ticket while losing 95 bets at the same time, not my cup of tea either. Then there's the smart handicapper who is looking for value on the toteboard. While it's easy enough to pick out the best horse on paper, getting 3/5 odds, hoping for a $3.20 return for each $2 invested isn't very appealing to me. Rather, the smart handicapper, in my opinion, looks for a horse that will provide value, maybe 5/1 odds, that has some upside potential in today's race. In my opinion, and I'm not a smart handicapper, ARROGATE offers exactly that situation. In fact, he might even drift up to 7 or 8 to one after today's announcement. ANd, I learned a very long tine ago, the best horse doesn't always win!
Godolphin @godolphin 1,h1 hour ago
#TeamGodolphin's #Frosted to clash with #CaliforniaChrome again as @BreedersCup Classic confirmed as next target
Flavien Prat to ride Effinex
Was just about to post that... just saw on DRF. Effinex gets a good rider (not good enough to erase that terrible name though!)
edit: and rock on Frosted on going to the Classic, where he belongs... 8)
Quote from: stark on October 20, 2016, 07:46:52 AM
Smart handicappers look at races differently....
True, from the point of view of betting. I was thinking more about what Chrome and Arrogate each bring to the table. I think the entry of Frosted could make Arrogate's task even more difficult, while Chrome's handiness and quickness gives him an advantage a lot of other horses don't have. If they all stay sound and the race is run cleanly, the outcome is likely to be chalky even though any horse can win any race on any given day, assuming the horses in that "given" race are not in over their heads class wise.
Quote from: stark on October 19, 2016, 08:26:00 AM
Mor Spirit working 7F in 1:24.3 ain't no slouch of a workmate, watch the video!!!!
How strategic is this??
http://www.xbtv.com/video/bcworks/arrogate-worked-7-furlongs-in-124-40-outside-of-mor-spirit-at-santa-anita-park-on-october-18th-2016/
I think he worked in company just in case. I think Baffert knows his best performance was on the lead and that is what they will shoot for. But depending upon post position just in case they do not get the lead he wants to be ready.
So we have a bigger field than I thought:
Arrogate
California Chrome
Effinex
Frosted
Hoppertunity
Melatonin
Nyquist
Shaman Ghost
War Story
Win The Space
And I still cannot believe that Gun Runner is under consideration for this race, but who knows.
Quote from: CA_Chrome on October 20, 2016, 06:27:04 PM
I think the entry of Frosted could make Arrogate's task even more difficult...
How so?
I think it depends if they both draw on the inside that may be the case, but it would likely be the same if Chrome and Arrogate drew on the inside as well.
Just read on Bloodhorse that Hard Aces will go in the Marathon...which I think is technically no longer a BC race/
Quote from: peeptoad on October 21, 2016, 11:30:36 AM
Just read on Bloodhorse that Hard Aces will go in the Marathon...which I think is technically no longer a BC race/
Good placement. He'll have a shot in there.
Quote from: peeptoad on October 21, 2016, 09:31:49 AM
How so?
Frosted will make it more difficult for everyone because he's a seriously talented animal.
I doubt seriously that Baffert is working Arrogate in company and bringing him from behind, just in case. I don't think you'll see Arrogate on the early lead unless no one wants it. Smith may use him a little early to get position, if he's drawn inside, but I would be pretty surprised if he's gunned for the lead. I think that Frosted will be on the lead with Melatonin in close pursuit. Chrome and Arrogate won't be far away but I see Melatonin doing a lot of the dirty work. This is as in depth as I can get without seeing who's in or the pp draw. Those factors can change a few things.
Yes, Frosted is talented. I was wondering if there was something more specific that CA Chrome was referring to.
I do wonder how Frosted will be ridden because he really isn't a frontrunner. His better races, Whitney aside, he has come from off the pace a bit. Rosario might take it to them ala Santana in last year's Travers, but imo that will see Frosted beaten more soundly than if he drops back off a quick early pace. It's just speculation. We'll see
Quote from: peeptoad on October 21, 2016, 01:06:33 PM
Yes, Frosted is talented. I was wondering if there was something more specific that CA Chrome was referring to.
I do wonder how Frosted will be ridden because he really isn't a frontrunner. His better races, Whitney aside, he has come from off the pace a bit. Rosario might take it to them ala Santana in last year's Travers, but imo that will see Frosted beaten more soundly than if he drops back off a quick early pace. It's just speculation. We'll see
The true front runner is Melatonin. I don't see Frosted passing Gr1 horses in the stretch at 10f so that's why I have a hunch he'll be put on the lead--not at all costs--but if the pace is reasonable and I think it will be closer to that than really hot.
Quote from: peeptoad on October 21, 2016, 09:31:49 AM
How so?
Sorry for the delayed response. I can't get on the internet until getting home from work. In response, I was thinking that Frosted is another accomplished older horse who is capable of a performance like this: http://www.drf.com/news/frosted-rides-whitney-spot-breeders-cup-classic
I'm not knocking Arrogate at all. Just making the reasonable observation that he is very lightly raced, going against older horses, and will be facing two older horses who have exceptional turns of foot. This is why I believe the addition of Frosted makes Arrogate's task harder.
ELMONT, N.Y. – Keen Ice, who upset Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in the 2015 Travers, is being considered for the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita on Nov. 5, his connections said Friday.
Quote from: CA_Chrome on October 21, 2016, 04:29:26 PM
Sorry for the delayed response. I can't get on the internet until getting home from work. In response, I was thinking that Frosted is another accomplished older horse who is capable of a performance like this: http://www.drf.com/news/frosted-rides-whitney-spot-breeders-cup-classic
I'm not knocking Arrogate at all. Just making the reasonable observation that he is very lightly raced, going against older horses, and will be facing two older horses who have exceptional turns of foot. This is why I believe the addition of Frosted makes Arrogate's task harder.
I didn't think you were knocking Arrogate (or Frosted)... was just wondering exactly what you meant, is all. :)
I agree Frosted's presence will strengthen the overall quality of the field; he does add depth. I will be a little surprised if Frosted is ridden the way he was ridden in the Whitney though. I agree with curtis that if the pace is moderate he will be closer, but if Rosario gives him the Whitney ride (or the 15 Travers ride) he will be left gasping in the stretch. With the exception of his maiden win and the Whitney he's been no closer than 4th or 5th early in all his other wins, and I would expect them to revert to that since it's resulted in most of his success.
And, of course, post will dictate some of this once they draw in.
California Chrome worked this morning at Los Alamitos. Official fractions from Los Al clocker Russ Hudak - :25 1/5, :48 3/5, and to the wire in 1:00 2/5. Chrome ran his final furlong in 11:80. Gallop out in 1:13. Excellent work in which he continued to accelerate throughout to the wire, then had a strong gallop out. He wore blinkers for the work according to Jay Privman of DRF.
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gW_0b_k9J_Y (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gW_0b_k9J_Y) He looks magnificent.
With all the well deserved kudos CHROME is getting in advance of the big day, he should open up at 1/5 on the board.
Good thing the BC isn't @ NYRA this year, might've been the first time ever for no show betting in the Classic ;)
What are you basing this assertion on?
Quote from: Raven on October 22, 2016, 06:58:08 PM
What are you basing this assertion on?
I won't speak for Stark, but Songbird ran twice at Saratoga with no show wagering either time.
I stand corrected
In 42 years of horse playing I've never placed a show bet.
Quote from: Raven on October 22, 2016, 06:58:08 PM
What are you basing this assertion on?
Knowing that you don't make show wagers, perhaps your question was more about my comment of CHROME opening at 1/5 on the board?
Even though we all make our own numbers and we all do our own handicapping, the sport in total is dependent on the public handicappers, the experts if you will, who write and predict the winners in print then the toteboard is a mere reflection. Maybe it's the DRF featuring Brad Free, Analyst, Sweep, Privman and others, or maybe it's the Courier-Journal where they get 'em all, Bredar, Joe, Jerry, Mary et al, maybe it's Johnny and Tara that catch your ear, or maybe its NYRA where Andy and Ernie post their picks, maybe its Gordon Jones at his P6 club meeting, maybe its Ubercapper and the Equibase gurus, maybe its the editors at Brisnet, maybe its Bruno with the workouts, maybe its Beyer himself, maybe it's TVG and a couple of 'em making a single in the classic on their P4 tickets, whatever wherever you see information, I think it's going to be a near unanimous decision of picking CHROME on top, hence the 1/5. Once that number pops up on the screen, there will no doubt be some players looking elsewhere for value, but 3/5 should be about the maximum when the bell rings.
Have you seen any "expert" publicly picking somebody other than CHROME to win?
p.s. I was going to say 1/9 but I thought that'd really silly to predict, what say you for opening odds on raceday?
Maybe Jon White checks in here and can contribute!
p.p.s Aidan--What's this about FOUND being entered in the Classic?
Quote from: stark on October 23, 2016, 08:58:58 AM
p.p.s Aidan--What's this about FOUND being entered in the Classic?
:o
Chrome will definitely go off the favorite, but there will be plenty of people who will try to find value with Arrogate, Frosted, Hoppertunity and others.
Quote from: stark on October 23, 2016, 08:58:58 AM
Knowing that you don't make show wagers, perhaps your question was more about my comment of CHROME opening at 1/5 on the board?
Even though we all make our own numbers and we all do our own handicapping, the sport in total is dependent on the public handicappers, the experts if you will, who write and predict the winners in print then the toteboard is a mere reflection. Maybe it's the DRF featuring Brad Free, Analyst, Sweep, Privman and others, or maybe it's the Courier-Journal where they get 'em all, Bredar, Joe, Jerry, Mary et al, maybe it's Johnny and Tara that catch your ear, or maybe its NYRA where Andy and Ernie post their picks, maybe its Gordon Jones at his P6 club meeting, maybe its Ubercapper and the Equibase gurus, maybe its the editors at Brisnet, maybe its Bruno with the workouts, maybe its Beyer himself, maybe it's TVG and a couple of 'em making a single in the classic on their P4 tickets, whatever wherever you see information, I think it's going to be a near unanimous decision of picking CHROME on top, hence the 1/5. Once that number pops up on the screen, there will no doubt be some players looking elsewhere for value, but 3/5 should be about the maximum when the bell rings.
Have you seen any "expert" publicly picking somebody other than CHROME to win?
p.s. I was going to say 1/9 but I thought that'd really silly to predict, what say you for opening odds on raceday?
Maybe Jon White checks in here and can contribute!
p.p.s Aidan--What's this about FOUND being entered in the Classic?
Agree with you on CC. The no show wagering thing goes over my head.
As for CC, Jerkens(the giant killer) once said he was never afraid of one horse!! Not an exact quote
Quote from: Raven on October 23, 2016, 05:36:31 AM
I stand corrected
In 42 years of horse playing I've never placed a show bet.
I haven't placed one since 1986. It used to be show wagering was only cancelled when there were less than 5 wagering interests. Now it happens more often and to be fair, NYRA isn't the only culprit.
Meet David Hofmans, the Giant Killer of the Breeders' Cup.
Consider the fact that he saddled Adoration, at 40-1 the longest shot on the board, to win the 2003 Distaff under Patrick Valenzuela; Desert Code at 36-1 with Richard Migliore up to win the 2008 Turf Sprint; and Alphabet Soup to upset two-time Horse of the Year Cigar in the 1996 Classic with Chris McCarron aboard at a $41.70 win payoff.
His next task could be his most daunting, however, sending out Santa Anita Handicap and Gold Cup at Santa Anita winner Melatonin after an absence of more than four months to tackle streaking 2014 Horse of the Year California Chrome in the $6 million Classic at Santa Anita on Saturday, Nov. 5.
"He loves to run fresh, I know that," said the 73-year-old Hofmans of Melatonin, a five-year-old gelded son of Kodiak Kowboy owned by Susan Osborne's Tarabilla Farms, Inc. "Unfortunately, I missed a race with him before the Classic so we have to come into what is probably the toughest race of his life off of works.
"I know the horse is doing really well right now. He reminds me of Alphabet Soup. They both try real hard every time and they're both so smart.
"I thought Adoration and Alphabet Soup had good shots to win, despite their odds. Desert Code, I wasn't too sure about, but I think Migliore was a big part of that. He really wanted that win and he rode the horse like he did, and I think he got every bit out of him.
"But all three horses were like Melatonin, peaking at the right moment."
Quote from: Senator L on October 19, 2016, 08:47:41 AM
I thought Mor Spirit out worked him, it didn't seem the rider ever moved on him.
Arrogate sure did catch up quick, do you think he'll come from off the pace?
Sounds to me the workout guru Bruno agrees with you!
Racingwithbruno @Racingwithbruno 19h19 hours ago
The Arrogate and Mor Spirit work on 10/18 was absolute beauty to watch, and once again for an average eye, who beat who, is all they see
I think the work in company was just in case he does not break well or has an outside post. His best race was on the lead. Baffert is unlikely to sacrifice his career best form. If he gets an outside post or gets into traffic trouble he is taking no chance with the work in company. Other than that, I expect Arrogate on the lead.
Are they looking to retire Keen Ice so they will give him one more shot?
I can think of easier places to run him than the Classic.
We shall see.
Quote from: stark on October 24, 2016, 07:49:12 AM
Sounds to me the workout guru Bruno agrees with you!
Racingwithbruno @Racingwithbruno 19h19 hours ago
The Arrogate and Mor Spirit work on 10/18 was absolute beauty to watch, and once again for an average eye, who beat who, is all they see
Maybe I'm reading to much into it, but seemed to me that Arrogate was being urged a bit to catch Mor Spirit while the latter was being held a bit to let Arrogate catch up. Can't quite put my finger on it or explain what my eye is catching, but Arrogate seems to have a somewhat awkward way of going. It's almost like he is head heavy, if that makes sense. Not sure how to explain myself better. Someone on the BloodHorse.com forum referred to Arrogate as "lumbering," and Baffert said the colt is a "big jumping" horse. I understand what they mean without being able to articulate it myself. On the other hand, Arrogate did level out and stride out nicely once he was urged.
Quote from: Man o Taz on October 24, 2016, 09:08:05 AM
Are they looking to retire Keen Ice so they will give him one more shot?
No idea, but he is now in the Pletcher barn. Not sure I paid attention when that happened... when
did it happen?
I believe it was post DWC. I saw him after training a number of times at the Pletcher barn and wondered when he would get a start. He looked just OK in his first start back. It seems like a very heavy lift for him to be pointed to the BC Classic against this field. I would think an allowance race, maybe the Clark, and then the Hal's Hope and Pegasus if he performed well, but from an allowance to a the BC Classic. Wow. I hope he does well. Always like him and his breeding.
Arrogate looked physically better in today's work than his last one. Good work, strong gallop out.
I agree he sort of lumbers--he doesn't have that economical float of AP for example. But he IS a big, heavy horse, especially through the neck and shoulder. I don't think its in him to be graceful! But that shoulder does give him a lot of extension when he levels out.
Major jockey news for BC Classic:
Castellano opts for Keen Ice, Irad Ortiz Jr. picks up Shaman Ghost
pre-entries:
http://i.bloodhorse.com/pdfs/2016BreedersCupPreEntries.pdf (http://i.bloodhorse.com/pdfs/2016BreedersCupPreEntries.pdf)
LADBROKES 10/27/16 4pm
California Chrome 1/1
Arrogate 5/2
Frosted 8/1
Found 16/1
Melatonin 20/1
Shaman Ghost 25/1
Nyquist 25/1
Hoppertunity 25/1
Gun Runner 25/1
Effinex 33/1
Keen Ice 50/1
Win The Space 66/1
War Story 100/1
Chrome had a really excellent work today. Normally he works every Saturday, but with a storm coming into L.A., Art said he didn't want to take a chance on working Chrome over a hard sealed track. http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/216152/california-chrome-fit-for-bc-after-work
Some interesting comments. Both Dihigi Gladney and Jeff Siegel separately said this was a better work than the one last weekend. That was the work Chrome finished in :11 flat. Also, Bob Baffert has been quoted as saying Arrogate has his work cut out for him to beat "that Cal-bred."
Other notes: Nyquist did not have a good work today. It was somehow messed up when he started way too far back of his workmate. And Frosted looked impressive galloping.
FWIW....
Mike Welsch @DRFWelsch 54m54 minutes ago
Really love the way Effinex looks galloping this morning. Relaxed, focused, ears pricked. Couldn't be doing better.
Quote from: stark on October 28, 2016, 09:03:59 AM
FWIW....
Mike Welsch @DRFWelsch 54m54 minutes ago
Really love the way Effinex looks galloping this morning. Relaxed, focused, ears pricked. Couldn't be doing better.
Since he can be kind of an in and outer, does anyone know if a correlation between his workouts and his performance?
I dunno about the workouts but here is a quote from Jerkens about the last race
The $200,000 second-place share increased Effinex's earnings to over $3.2 million, and closer to Funny Cide's all-time total of $3,529,412 among New York-breds.
"I wonder if he really saw that other horse," said trainer Jimmy Jerkens. "I don't know if he really saw the horse until it was too late, because then he tried to fight back on. At the quarter-pole, he looked like he couldn't lose."
FWIW, hmmmm....
Racingwithbruno @Racingwithbruno 7h7 hours ago
Gave California Chrome 5 star work going into Awesome Again, not sure he gets even 4 star work for #bc16, Twitter way overboard on last work
Quote from: stark on October 28, 2016, 12:02:22 PM
FWIW, hmmmm....
Racingwithbruno @Racingwithbruno 7h7 hours ago
Gave California Chrome 5 star work going into Awesome Again, not sure he gets even 4 star work for #bc16, Twitter way overboard on last work
FWIW indeed...... I remember leading up to the 2014 Derby that he didn't look good over the Churchill track. He did on Derby Day. I'm assuming he still may be favored.😉
Quote from: stark on October 28, 2016, 12:02:22 PM
FWIW, hmmmm....
Racingwithbruno @Racingwithbruno 7h7 hours ago
Gave California Chrome 5 star work going into Awesome Again, not sure he gets even 4 star work for #bc16, Twitter way overboard on last work
I wonder which work Bruno is referring to here. The one last weekend, or the one yesterday. Or is his "way overboard" comment referring to the fact that Chrome went 5f on the 22nd and 6f just five days later? Here is a link to XBTV's video. It is of the full work as it happened live, with commentary at it happened by Zoe Cadman. Folks can watch this and decide for themselves about the work. Scroll down about three messages on this page: https://www.facebook.com/California-Chrome-1692849160948428/ (https://www.facebook.com/California-Chrome-1692849160948428/)
One thing to factor in, for about 25 years now Bruno has enjoyed being the role of contrarian clocker, sometimes he's even right ;)
BREAKING NEWS: Nyquist injured, out of BC Classic
Puffy ankle after last work.
Sorry to see the Derby winner get injured. Fortunately it doesn't seem to be serious, but it's sad he won't have a chance to redeem himself in the Classic.
That takes some pace out of the mix... hope he's well enough for the Pegasus next year.
Scratch that. Looks like he was slated to be retired after the BC.
Quote from: peeptoad on October 29, 2016, 08:55:00 AM
That takes some pace out of the mix... hope he's well enough for the Pegasus next year.
Scratch that. Looks like he was slated to be retired after the BC.
Reddam has a million dollar stall in the Pegasus, curious who that was bought for?
Quote from: stark on October 29, 2016, 11:42:31 AM
Reddam has a million dollar stall in the Pegasus, curious who that was bought for?
There's always Ralis. I think that's a French word used in the Quebec area that loosely translates to Rick's Natural Star.😉
I think Nyquist may get another shot in the Malibu and if that goes well the Pegasus could still be a possibility. This is just my own musing here. No foundation for it. But if this is a minor injury, they still want to make the case for champion three year old. Being retired does not get you there. A Malibu win was not enough for Shared Belief, but it may have been had he won the Kentucky Derby like Nyquist did. I think if he can heel up they run him. Likely what they are waiting for is to see what Arrogate does. If he were to win the Classic, champion three year old would likely be gone, but if not they may believe they still have a chance to win the award. Champion 2 year old and 3 year old and if he wins the Malibu no reason the Pegasus is not possible.
I think Darley is saying as long as he keeps winning he can keep running. So if he won the BC he likely would have been pointed to the Pegasus.
The good thing about this plan is that 7-9 furlongs should be right in his wheelhouse.
Press release just went out announcing officially what was expected, Nyquist retired to Darley. 2yo champ, Derby winner, by Uncle Mo.
$40K
Here's the Bloodhorse link: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/216274/derby-winner-nyquist-retired (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/216274/derby-winner-nyquist-retired)
...not sure if Exaggerator is officially retired yet, but it's a sad day when the 3 TC race winners can't even make it to the end of the calendar year... though it's the humans doing the retiring and not the horses, exactly.
See the California Chrome thread for a link to a video of Chrome's gallop today. Amazing.
1 Effinex James A. Jerkens Flavien Prat 15-1
2 Frosted Kiaran P. McLaughlin Joel Rosario 5-1
3 Keen Ice Todd A. Pletcher Javier Castellano 20-1
4 California Chrome Art Sherman Victor Espinoza 1-1
5 Win the Space George Papaprodromou Gary Stevens 30-1
6 Melatonin David E. Hofmans Joe Talamo 12-1
7 War Story Mario Serey Jr. Scott Speith 30-1
8 Shaman Ghost James A. Jerkens Irad Ortiz Jr. 20-1
9 Hoppertunity Bob Baffert John Velazquez 15-1
10 Arrogate Bob Baffert Mike Smith 5-2
Racingwithbruno @Racingwithbruno 4h4 hours ago
Want to have a measuring stick of how a horse should gallop look at California Chrome today
Ed DeRosa @EJXD2 3h3 hours ago Hebron, KY
Hated California Chrome's gallop.
So is Arrogate the odd horse out with a far outside post position?
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 01, 2016, 11:49:32 AM
So is Arrogate the odd horse out with a far outside post position?
I'm a firm believer that post position draws may be important in the Juvenile races, but seasoned champions can/should win from anywhere.
I doubt that Mike Smith would change his vantage point with anybody given the opportunity, all systems go!
Are their post position biases, sure, but the great ones prevail, and I need at least 10-1 to bet a rail horse coming down the hillside :D
Quote from: stark on November 01, 2016, 10:37:16 AM
Racingwithbruno @Racingwithbruno 4h4 hours ago
Want to have a measuring stick of how a horse should gallop look at California Chrome today
Ed DeRosa @EJXD2 3h3 hours ago Hebron, KY
Hated California Chrome's gallop.
Lol...$5.00 and an opinion will buy you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. For those who want to see for themselves, here's a link to the video of Chrome's gallop today: http://www.xbtv.com/video/bcclassic/california-chrome-galloped-at-santa-anita-park-on-november-1st-2016-for-the-breeders-cup-classic/
The only thing I'll say is that Dihigi sometimes has to work hard to keep Chrome from going too fast, and he will sometimes pull a little too sharply on the bit causing Chrome to kind of hop. I don't like that, because I fear it could cause an injury. But this is nothing new for Chrome and Dihigi. If it doesn't bother Art, who am I to question how Dihigi gallops Chrome. The horse is undefeated so far this year and Dihigi has worked him almost every morning all year long. But I would truly enjoy knowing what others here think about this gallop.
Speaking of Art, here's a wonderful Twin Spires interview with him: https://www.facebook.com/topic/California-Chrome/1692849160948428
It's been a strange year already, and we all know that anything can happen on raceday, why not one of the most profitable handicapping angles in the past 20 years hitting on Saturday, THE OTHER BAFFERT!?!?
http://www.latimes.com/sports/more/la-sp-breeders-cup-notes-20161101-story.html
Quote from: stark on November 02, 2016, 08:32:03 AM
It's been a strange year already, and we all know that anything can happen on raceday, why not one of the most profitable handicapping angles in the past 20 years hitting on Saturday, THE OTHER BAFFERT!?!?
http://www.latimes.com/sports/more/la-sp-breeders-cup-notes-20161101-story.html
I'm way ahead of you, stark... Hopper is my favorite horse running in the BC. I'm definitely betting him!
Quote from: stark on November 01, 2016, 12:56:41 PM
I'm a firm believer that post position draws may be important in the Juvenile races, but seasoned champions can/should win from anywhere.
I doubt that Mike Smith would change his vantage point with anybody given the opportunity, all systems go!
Are their post position biases, sure, but the great ones prevail, and I need at least 10-1 to bet a rail horse coming down the hillside :D
Is Arrogate a seasoned champion now?
I guess we will find out. :)
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 02, 2016, 12:52:07 PM
Is Arrogate a seasoned champion now?
I guess we will find out. :)
Honestly, just looking at his form on paper he's the exact type of horse I normally bet against. But that last race was just a phenom. He's not my top pick but I think you have to hedge and use him if you bet.
I agree. You cannot know. The combination of his talent, trainer and jockey have to give pause to anyone else in the race. The post position may not have been ideal, but he has shown himself to be mature and able to win off the pace so it really should not be a problem.
I actually think it could work to his advantage if Melatonin and Chrome get into a duel up front and he can just skate home.
I think California Chrome's biggest liability is his jockey. I think Victor can sometimes be overconfident like he was in the Travers with American Pharoah. Chrome should stalk. I think his strongest races have come in that position, though his Pacific Classic was quite impressive. Santa Anita is not Del Mar, though, and I think while the competition was strong in that race he likes the Del Mar surface a bit better than Santa Anita and here the competition can come in waves. Victor cannot empty the tank too early or this will be the Belmont Stakes all over again.
I posted some handicapping thoughts in Kennedy's thread elsewhere, which I will relay in the race threads here. Take them at your own peril. ;)
Chrome or go home? Not quite, though he is probably the single most likely winner over the two days. Arrogate is the question mark and potential fly in the ointment for him. On price throw a dart because they will both take a lot of money. My strategy here will be to box 3-4 for the exotics and then bet Hoppertunity across the board. I am a fan of Hopper so some of that is sentimental $, but more objectively: he should get ample pace to close into, is coming off a win (finally) going into this, and of the SoCal horses running here, I think he will appreciate the changes made to the dirt course more than anyone else. Deeper, softer, slightly slower times and appears to be a bit kinder to off the pace types? That sounds like Hoppertunity to me. Otherwise most likely: Chrome, Hopper, Arrogate (and one of Effinex, Frosted, or Melatonin) exacta box.
For me, the Classic turns out to be an unbettable race, one that I'd just as soon pass on because of a lack of confidence stepping up to the windows, thats one thing I've learned, you really need to like your wagers in this day and age because of the sheer number of opportunities out there. It's not like the old days when we only had 9 races on any given day, and a few exotics sprinkled in.
Therefore, the only logical thing for me is try and be alive in a P3 or P4 to my best bet and that has to be ARROGATE. I'd rather spread out in the races leading up to the Classic and then take my stand there.
I'm pretty confident that as good as Chrome is we've already seen his best, and no doubt its very good. But for all the people who say bouncer, faker, one-hit wonder, there's still a pretty good possibility ARROGATE has not run his lifetime top yet, why not now? Even if everybody re-runs their their last race, ARROGATE wins from a "numbers" perspective, so I'm looking for some upside potential, the glass is half full for this optimist.
Before the Travers Baffert was quoted as saying "the fastest horse in the country" and honestly over the years BB doesn't go overboard on his quotes like a Stevens, Lukas, et al. Trust in Baffert and go wait in the cashiers line, and for an extra few bucks you can box up the Baffert two in an exacta then go have a party after Hoppy passes tiring horses down the lane.
Shaman Ghost has been scratched from the BC Classic. Confirmed by SA racing secretary Rick Hammerle. Nine remain in field
I'm going with Effinex today
with CC,Frosted and Arrogate second and third
Please tell me why Victor was looking under his arm to the inside and never asked Chrome fr more? He thought he was unbeatable.
Arrogate wow. Look at the time 2:00.1. And after his Travers 1:59 and change. What are we looking at here. I never heard of the horse before the Travers.
Quote from: afleetphil on November 05, 2016, 06:10:23 PM
Arrogate wow. Look at the time 2:00.1. And after his Travers 1:59 and change. What are we looking at here. I never heard of the horse before the Travers.
They gave the big guy time to grow into himself - smart move - he could be very very good - HE IS very very FAST - and how often do you Mike Smith on a Baffert horse????
ROCK! Nice job, Arrogate a nd thank you Juddmonte for keeping him in training next year! :happy:
Props to Chrome as well who was valiant as ever in defeat... was really hoping the young upstart would win this one so we'd get to see a superstar next year (and since so many of the top older males not to mention Pharoah were swept away last year)
Special props to Hoppertunity! Always reliable... always rounding out the tri and super. ;D