Thoroughbred Racing Fans

Racing => Racing => Topic started by: Man o Taz on May 13, 2016, 11:22:33 AM

Title: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Man o Taz on May 13, 2016, 11:22:33 AM
Brody's Cause
Creator
Destin
Exaggerator
Gun Runner
Lani
Nyquist
Outwork
Suddenbreakingnews

Another relatively small field...
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Raven on May 13, 2016, 04:25:03 PM
The Belmont, with nine starters, is about average.
We might get another two from the Peter Pan
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Raven on May 13, 2016, 06:45:09 PM
Governor Malibu will be my pick for the Belmont after his easy win tomorrow in the Peter Pan
But that's just me.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Man o Taz on May 17, 2016, 07:36:01 AM
I like Governor Malibu too even after his 2nd place finish. I think he gets the distance more than Unified.

I wonder if Zito sends his Peter Pan horse to the Belmont Stakes.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Man o Taz on May 23, 2016, 12:28:08 PM
Brody's Cause - 5 f in 1:01 8/32 on 5/22 at Churchill
Cherry Wine - showed his class finishing 2nd in the Preakness. Is the Belmont next for him?
Creator - 5 f in 1:02 at Churchill 24/35 5/23
Destin - 4 f in 48.22 at Belmont training  2/35 on 5/20
Exaggerator - He has committed. Let us cross our fingers.
Governor Malibu - looks like a nice horse for the field has not worked since the Peter Pan.
Gun Runner - Belmont or waiting for summer?
Lani - finished well in the Preakness Stakes
Nyquist? - spiked a fever post Preakness
Outwork - has not worked since the Derby
Suddenbreakingnews - 5 furlongs in 1:00.60 9/35 at Churchill
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: afleetphil on May 24, 2016, 10:42:05 AM
Nyquist out of Belmont with fever. Damn.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: ElPrado on May 25, 2016, 09:29:37 AM
Had to show a reason for him being beaten in the P, too.Must have been starting then. Artistic excuses have been known to appear for losses.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: afleetphil on May 25, 2016, 11:11:59 AM
Can you say Doug O'Neill. Where have we seen this before. One day before the 2012 Belmont with I'll Have Another. Nyquist got beat fair and square in the Preakness. No excuses.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Man o Taz on May 26, 2016, 08:10:34 AM
I know many have issues with Doug O'Neill, but his team really wanted to go to the Belmont Stakes with Nyquist.

Doug O'Neill all along was very gracious post-Preakness.

He could have made excuses from the get go saying as some athletes do, Nyquist must not have been on his game to lose so we will have to check him out to see what happened, etc.

He did not. Instead he praised Exaggerator and his connections and said their plans were always to run in all three legs of the Triple Crown.

It is a shame he will not be there.

And he did get beat fair and square in the Preakness. Just like Angle Light and Onion beat Secretariat fair and square in the Wood and Whitney even though he was under the weather unknown to the connections in one race and known to them in the other. You enter the gate. You are ready to roll. No excuses unless you are fouled.

Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: afleetphil on May 26, 2016, 11:20:14 AM
From my read. Nyquist spiked a fever AFTER the Preakness, so he was evidently healthy for that race.
Secretariat however had an absest tooth in the Wood and  actually had a fever when he raced Onion. So I do see a difference.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Man o Taz on May 26, 2016, 02:00:25 PM
Quote from: afleetphil on May 26, 2016, 11:20:14 AM
From my read. Nyquist spiked a fever AFTER the Preakness, so he was evidently healthy for that race.
Secretariat however had an absest tooth in the Wood and  actually had a fever when he raced Onion. So I do see a difference.

Yes, but they did not discover Secretariat's abscess problem until post race. They did not know going into the race he had it.

And it is my understanding that spiking a fever is a symptom of a problem. The fact that it occurred within 48 hours means that he might have been experiencing the underlying ailment at Preakness post time since the fever is a symptom of a larger problem that often takes time to develop. :-)
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: peeptoad on May 26, 2016, 02:24:46 PM
Quote from: Man o Taz on May 26, 2016, 02:00:25 PM
Yes, but they did not discover Secretariat's abscess problem until post race. They did not know going into the race he had it.

And it is my understanding that spiking a fever is a symptom of a problem. The fact that it occurred within 48 hours means that he might have been experiencing the underlying ailment at Preakness post time since the fever is a symptom of a larger problem that often takes time to develop. :-)

Fevers can also be caused by stress, so it wasn't necessarily a larger problem. He could have been worn out from his racing schedule or from shipping. It's pretty common, although it could be an ailment of some sort as well. IMO they did the right thing by him anyway, regardless.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: curtis on May 26, 2016, 02:31:02 PM
Quote from: Man o Taz on May 26, 2016, 02:00:25 PM
Yes, but they did not discover Secretariat's abscess problem until post race. They did not know going into the race he had it.

And it is my understanding that spiking a fever is a symptom of a problem. The fact that it occurred within 48 hours means that he might have been experiencing the underlying ailment at Preakness post time since the fever is a symptom of a larger problem that often takes time to develop. :-)
I think he was fine pre race. Nyquist also spiked a fever after the FL Derby.  Some horses--as are humans--are prone to do that after a max effort.  As long as it comes right back down, it's not a huge problem.  They could run Nyquist in the Belmont if they really wanted to, but why?  It's better safe than sorry.  It would be entertaining, though to see how bad Stupor--I mean Super--Mario could screw up a ride the whole way around Big Sandy.  Doug's too nice a guy in my opinion.  As long as he insists on using the Kevin Kriggers and the Mario Gutierrez's of the world on his top horses, he's going to lose some big races.

In Secretariat's case, they may not have diagnosed the exact problems until after the Wood and Whitney but he wasn't acting right going into either race.  The thought was he needed both races so he ran.  He worked poorly going into the Wood but there was no way in 1973 a horse was going to go to the Derby off of a 7f and a 1 mile prep.  He wasn't acting right just before the Whitney, but again, the plan was to make the Travers and horses ran more often in those days.  The illness he had at Saratoga also indirectly affected his Woodward.  But it was what it was, he ran and he lost.  Angle Light, Sham, Onion and Prove Out were better those days.  Further proof that if you run 'em enough they'll all get beat.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: peeptoad on May 27, 2016, 02:51:09 AM
per DRF+ (so I won't post the article) Creator is definite for the Belmont, according to Asmussen.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: ElPrado on May 28, 2016, 12:13:24 PM
That's actually a decent field for the Belmont. There aren't that many 3 year olds that would not try to kick the owner where it hurts if they understood how far they were expected to run in early June, with or without mud.
I still have no idea how some owners think their sprinters will get 12 furlongs.
Wait, yes I do. They get to be on TV!
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Senator L on May 29, 2016, 07:06:43 AM
Suddenbreakingnews - picks up Mike Smith. It helps having
a jock that has ridden there before. Looks like the only one
with low odds will be Exaggerator
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: stark on May 29, 2016, 07:44:23 AM
Quote from: Senator L on May 29, 2016, 07:06:43 AM
Suddenbreakingnews - picks up Mike Smith. It helps having
a jock that has ridden there before. Looks like the only one
with low odds will be Exaggerator

Well, there's that jockey upgrade PLUS a new definition for the ultimate equipment change.....they found 'em!

Sold for $72,000 and listed since then as a gelding, the Kentucky Derby's fifth-place finisher was recently found to have two undescended testicles, making him a ridgling potentially able to breed — though not likely — after his racing career ends. That won't change trainer Donnie Von Hemel's immediate plans, however, to work the son of Mineshaft on Sunday or Monday toward the June 11 Belmont.

"He looks like a gelding. He acted like a gelding. I had no reason to think otherwise, and that's the way it was," Von Hemel said. "I think there were a few other times I said, 'Boy, you might wish you hadn't of gelded this horse.'"

Owner Samuel Henderson ordered that after purchasing Suddenbreakingnews. But as the horse emerged as a prospect for the Triple Crown series, representatives of the farms where he was raised and learned to race corresponded and discovered the operation never happened.

Von Hemel said a recent ultrasound showed the testicles to be small, and in Suddenbreakingnews' abdomen, resting at a temperature too high to reproduce. And so his career will continue on as planned, with retirement not in sight.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: stark on May 29, 2016, 10:53:16 AM
After a 4 hour van ride EXAGGERATOR arrives @ Belmont this morning looking good!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CjoyFgIW0AEdk3t.jpg)
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: afleetphil on May 29, 2016, 11:32:05 AM
He does look good. Wonder where he goes after the Belmont.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: stark on May 30, 2016, 10:45:34 AM
early look at the pp's
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/BelmontStakes16.pdf
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: peeptoad on May 31, 2016, 07:34:39 AM
Exaggerator looks excellent in that photo. Seems he had a pretty good gallop yesterday at BEL.
Wild About Deb is now also likely for the Belmont:

http://live.drf.com/nuggets/29287 (http://live.drf.com/nuggets/29287)

the definite > probable field:

Brody's Cause
Cherry Wine
Creator
Destin
Exaggerator
Governor Malibu
Lani
Stradivari
Suddenbreakingnews
Wild About Deb

DRF also reports that Gun Runner's next start will be the G3 Matt Winn at CD.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Man o Taz on May 31, 2016, 09:44:50 AM
Quote from: afleetphil on May 29, 2016, 11:32:05 AM
He does look good. Wonder where he goes after the Belmont.

I bet he heads for the Jim Dandy and Travers after a break. This is the route they wanted for Texas Red last year that just did not work out.

Now, whether he ships home to SoCal is another story. I should think he will get time off. And Swipe is at Belmont, too. So they may ship their horses to Saratoga post-Belmont and ship Swipe down for the Dwyer. I do not know if Texas Red went home to Cal after Dwyer or up to Saratoga, but I think since the plan is for Saratoga with Exaggerator they will get him there too.

I do wonder what is up with Texas Red. He had been working well in March and April and then 4/11 was his last work so I hope they did not have a set back. I do not know if he is in NY.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: afleetphil on May 31, 2016, 12:38:11 PM
That would be perfect. Already got my Jim Dandy day tickets July 30th. Saw Texas Red last summer win the Jim Dandy.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: curtis on May 31, 2016, 01:04:47 PM
Quote from: Man o Taz on May 31, 2016, 09:44:50 AM
I bet he heads for the Jim Dandy and Travers after a break. This is the route they wanted for Texas Red last year that just did not work out.

Now, whether he ships home to SoCal is another story. I should think he will get time off. And Swipe is at Belmont, too. So they may ship their horses to Saratoga post-Belmont and ship Swipe down for the Dwyer. I do not know if Texas Red went home to Cal after Dwyer or up to Saratoga, but I think since the plan is for Saratoga with Exaggerator they will get him there too.

I do wonder what is up with Texas Red. He had been working well in March and April and then 4/11 was his last work so I hope they did not have a set back. I do not know if he is in NY.
Texas Red is out until next year. I heard Keith Desormeaux mention it in an interview after the Preakness. He was asked about Texas Red--who he volunteered was a better horse than Exaggerator--and spoke about the latest setback.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: peeptoad on June 01, 2016, 05:42:43 AM
Lani is apparently looking good so far at BEL and made a pretty good appearance this morning, galloping almost 2 miles before commencing a 5f work. Stamina will be no issue. Maybe he can get it done this time around...
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: curtis on June 01, 2016, 11:23:22 AM
Quote from: peeptoad on June 01, 2016, 05:42:43 AM
Lani is apparently looking good so far at BEL and made a pretty good appearance this morning, galloping almost 2 miles before commencing a 5f work. Stamina will be no issue. Maybe he can get it done this time around...
Lani probably thought it was a race, given how he usually gallops most of the way before running a little bit and then passing whatever tired horses don't get in his way. His type usually aren't playable in the Belmont, for me,because they get overbet. The idea being he can get the distance when others can't.  He could get lucky, I guess, but I think he needs a pace meltdown that most likely won't materialize. But hey if you like him....
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: peeptoad on June 01, 2016, 12:28:56 PM
I don't actually like him myself, but hey, who knows. Maybe he can get it done this time. Likely won't be on my tickets tho.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Dusty on June 01, 2016, 07:24:27 PM
Lani does seem to be moving up = maybe hits in the top three???
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: stark on June 03, 2016, 06:48:58 AM
Governor Malibu goes five furlongs in 1:00.29 from the half-mile pole with Joel Rosario aboard in his final work.

Maintenance type half-mile works with strong gallop outs on training track in separate sets for both Destin and Stradivari this a.m.

Rain starting to pick up at Belmont Park. Exaggerator, Cherry Wine, Brody's Cause expected to gallop on main track after the break.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: stark on June 05, 2016, 09:00:08 PM
Good read from LA Times, Phil D'Amato---Wild About Deb

http://www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/la-sp-horse-racing-phil-damato-20160605-snap-story.html
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Man o Taz on June 06, 2016, 05:32:24 AM
And now it seems that there may be rain again in the Belmont Stakes.

How many times have all three Triple Crown races in a single year been contested on wet tracks?
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Senator L on June 06, 2016, 07:58:44 AM
Quote from: stark on June 05, 2016, 09:00:08 PM
Good read from LA Times, Phil D'Amato---Wild About Deb

http://www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/la-sp-horse-racing-phil-damato-20160605-snap-story.html

Well he has the karma part down. I hope his horse runs well
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: peeptoad on June 06, 2016, 10:09:35 AM
As of today here are the expected entrants:

Brody's Cause             
Cherry Wine             
Creator                         
Destin                         
Exaggerator               
Forever d'Oro           
Gettysburg                   
Governor Malibu         
Lani                             
Seeking the Soul             
Stradivari                     
Suddenbreakingnews   
Trojan Nation       

If Gettysburg runs that'll likely ensure an honest pace.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: peeptoad on June 06, 2016, 11:38:30 AM
http://www.drf.com/news/dozen-set-face-exaggerator (http://www.drf.com/news/dozen-set-face-exaggerator)

Well, Wild About Deb is out. And Gettysburg will be entered to provide pace for both Creator and Exaggerator.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Man o Taz on June 06, 2016, 01:15:22 PM
A nice size field.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: sweettalk on June 06, 2016, 07:27:56 PM
Quote from: Man o Taz on June 06, 2016, 05:32:24 AM
And now it seems that there may be rain again in the Belmont Stakes.

How many times have all three Triple Crown races in a single year been contested on wet tracks?
the derby wasn't wet this year tho?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZstnjDJjP0g
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Man o Taz on June 07, 2016, 09:53:10 AM
Yes it was.

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/news/brisk,-damp-morning-greets-kentucky-derby-hopefuls

Temperatures were in the upper 40s with a light, steady rain falling when the track opened at 5:45 (all times Eastern) with the track condition labeled as "wet-fast" by Churchill Downs clockers. The rain stopped at 6:30 but by the time the track reopened at 8:30 after the renovation break, conditions were downgraded to "good" as a light drizzle began to fall along with a biting breeze.



It was pouring in Louisville just a few minutes ago, meaning the 142nd Kentucky Derby could be a sloppy one. A wet track will have a big affect on the race, as many 3-year-old horses haven't run in the rain and that could affect the odds.

Thunderstorms are expected to continue sporadically throughout the evening and up until the Kentucky Derby begins at 6:34 p.m. ET, but Derby hopefuls may catch a break since the storms may go just northeast of Louisville and don't muddy up the track too much. There are always a handful of horses better-equipped to handle the rain — Exaggerator, Outwork and Suddenbreakingnews have all fared well on wet tracks in their young careers.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: BaroqueAgain1 on June 07, 2016, 12:01:11 PM
From DRF:
Clocker: Exaggerator's behavior raises concern
All eyes were on Exaggerator Tuesday morning at Belmont Park, with the Preakness winner turning in his final major prep for Saturday's Belmont Stakes. He worked five furlongs in 1:00.92 over a very fast main track after the renovation break.
http://www.drf.com/news/preview/clocker-mixed-reactions-exaggerators-work
Since the rest of the article is behind the paywall, I don't know what sort of "behavior" is concerning the clocker. Anyone know?
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: peeptoad on June 07, 2016, 12:41:56 PM
I didn't see in the article that there was any sort of concern,  just mixed reactions to the work. Apparently he bore out 5 or 6 paths on the turn and then was under urging to finish, with his ears pinned and tail out straight. The clocker indicated he looked much different (read: better) in his final derby work.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: peeptoad on June 07, 2016, 01:09:10 PM
Bloodhorse article about the same work:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/212253/exaggerator-floats-turn-in-belmont-breeze (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/212253/exaggerator-floats-turn-in-belmont-breeze)
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: sweettalk on June 07, 2016, 06:52:03 PM
i have no idea why i don't remember that at all. just remember sun and no reflecting/standing water on the dirt (as seen in the video). even equibase has it labeled as "fast", same for the humana distaff earlier that day. sorry. *shrug*
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: peeptoad on June 08, 2016, 02:44:32 AM
Quote from: sweettalk on June 07, 2016, 06:52:03 PM
i have no idea why i don't remember that at all. just remember sun and no reflecting/standing water on the dirt (as seen in the video). even equibase has it labeled as "fast", same for the humana distaff earlier that day. sorry. *shrug*

FWIW I recall reading a post-Derby article somewhere (I think DRF) where the writer stated the track was labeled fast, but there was standing water in spots and it probably was on the "good" side of fast, rather than outright fast. (that's paraphrasing because I can't find the article anywhere of course now).
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: peeptoad on June 08, 2016, 06:46:25 AM
Yet another piece about Exaggerator's last work, this one with a bit different tone than the other DRF piece:
http://www.drf.com/news/exaggerator-works-well-gallops-out-wow (http://www.drf.com/news/exaggerator-works-well-gallops-out-wow)
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: stark on June 08, 2016, 08:22:03 AM
Quote from: peeptoad on June 07, 2016, 12:41:56 PM
I didn't see in the article that there was any sort of concern,  just mixed reactions to the work. Apparently he bore out 5 or 6 paths on the turn and then was under urging to finish, with his ears pinned and tail out straight. The clocker indicated he looked much different (read: better) in his final derby work.

While some are reporting he "bore out 5 or 6 paths" Bruno of Works fame tells that KentD intentionally moved the horse to a better path on the track and will do so in the Belmont again.

Racingwithbruno ‏@Racingwithbruno  16h16 hours ago
Kent went looking for good ground, found it, others report he bore out, Kent will be 1st 2 tell you,moved the colt himself for that lane

Racingwithbruno ‏@Racingwithbruno  16h16 hours ago
This morning, Kent D did same on Exaggerator moving out several lanes to find lane he could have the colt level off, switch leads properly

Racingwithbruno ‏@Racingwithbruno  16h16 hours ago
He also shared with us that on the dirt specifically that he would find a tire track or a path especially on wet main.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Man o Taz on June 08, 2016, 09:53:56 AM
Brothers Keith and Kent Desormeaux, trainer and rider, respectively, of GI Belmont S. favorite Exaggerator (Curlin), were in a jovial mood Tuesday morning after the GI Preakness S. winner and GI Kentucky Derby runner-up turned in his final breeze for Saturday=s ATest of the Champion. With Hall of Famer Kent in the irons, the dark bay was clocked in 1:00 4/5 for five panels.

The best I can say is, in comparison [to his work before the Derby and Preakness], it was the same. All systems go,Kent offered at a press briefing trackside.

Kent continued to describe the work, and older brother Keith took to asking the questions.
Kent: Good energy.
Keith: He wasn't stronger?
Kent: Lots of fluidity.
Keith:I'd prefer him to be stronger. Was he stronger?
Kent: No, he was the same.
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/pdf/tdn/tdn160608.pdf
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: stark on June 08, 2016, 09:54:36 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkcYG3aWYAAy_6K.jpg)
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Man o Taz on June 08, 2016, 09:56:50 AM
I like Exaggerator/Destin 1st or 2nd followed by Lani and Creator.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: peeptoad on June 08, 2016, 10:00:55 AM
for the more list-oriented viewer:

1. Governor Malibu, Joel Rosario, 12-1
2. Destin, Javier Castellano, 6-1
3. Cherry Wine, Corey Lanerie, 8-1
4. Suddenbreakingnews, Mike Smith, 10-1
5. Stradivari, John Velazquez, 5-1
6. Gettysburg, Paco Lopez, 30-1
7. Seeking the Soul, Florent Geroux, 30-1
8. Forever d'Oro, Jose Ortiz, 30-1
9. Trojan Nation, Aaron Gryder, 30-1
10. Lani, Yutake Take, 20-1
11. Exaggerator, Kent Desormeaux, 9-5
12. Brody's Cause, Luis Saez, 20-1
13. Creator, Irad Ortiz Jr., 10-1
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: afleetphil on June 08, 2016, 10:23:51 AM
1./ Exaggerator
2./ Cherry Wine
3./ Stradivari
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: stark on June 08, 2016, 12:06:40 PM
Jay Privman ‏@DRFPrivman  34m34 minutes ago
8 of last 16 Belmonts have been won by a horse who ran in Ky Derby or Oaks, then had 5 weeks to prepare for Belmont

That's 50% since the turn of the century!
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: stark on June 08, 2016, 12:18:00 PM
Primary WIN play for me will be Megyn Kelly's tip horse SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS with Mike Smith timing the ride perfectly.

Small hunch play saver bet will be on Getttysburg with Paco Lopez to steal it wire to wire, I just love it when the pro's say "he's nothing more than a rabbit for his stablemate".

Exactas, tri and super will include the logical chalk.

Good luck, enjoy the show!
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: stark on June 09, 2016, 05:53:57 AM
Updated PPs for the 13
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/BelmontStakes16.pdf
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: peeptoad on June 09, 2016, 06:05:19 AM
I haven't fully looked at this one (or any of the BEL races really) yet, but I am probably siding against both Romans horses and Destin. I prefer Stradivari of the two Pletchers, though he's likely not my primary play.
The 5 I like best so far in the field are Gov Malibu, Stradivari, Suddenbreakingnews, Creator, and of course Exaggerator. I'm giving the maiden and the recent maiden winners a pass. I understand this race can (and has) produced some crazy winners and wild payouts, but this is a decent enough rendition that I think those 3 will find the waters far too deep at this stage.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Man o Taz on June 09, 2016, 12:41:11 PM
Quote from: sweettalk on June 07, 2016, 06:52:03 PM
i have no idea why i don't remember that at all. just remember sun and no reflecting/standing water on the dirt (as seen in the video). even equibase has it labeled as "fast", same for the humana distaff earlier that day. sorry. *shrug*

You can see some reflecting water when they go around the far turn.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Zenyatta on June 09, 2016, 07:50:56 PM
I don't see anyone coming even close to Exxagerator. He's getting better and better and neither distance nor weather are questions. And to think, this is the same colt I screamed my lungs out to win the Delta Jackpot. That little but rich race on a podunk bullring track will become a G1 at this rate. Since 2008 there have been 3 exceptional horses coming out of that race - Big Drama, Goldencents and now Exaggerator.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: CA_Chrome on June 10, 2016, 04:14:24 AM
Re Exaggerator, Curlin has turned into one heck of a fine sire.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: peeptoad on June 10, 2016, 09:44:50 AM
Probably playing the exact, maybe tri. If I had to bet one horse right now it would be Governor Malibu. He's improving, has some tactical speed, and has posted good closing pace in all his races so far. Plus the price will be right. My only concern is the distance and the only real reason I have mild concern is because Clement himself went on record saying he feels the pedigree is not all there for 12F and he just hopes the horse is good enough. I think he is, but he'll need Exaggerator to have an off day and he'll need to fend off the two Pletchers, both of which will legitimately take $.
Otherwise I'm liking Stradivari and Exaggerator and neither will be any sort of value.

Governor Malibu
Stradivari
Exaggerator/ Creator/SBN/Lani

I realize the rabbit is in there to provide pace, but at this distance he would have to set absolutely torrid fractions to set up any sort of run for horses like Creator, Lani and SBN. Not sure that will happen, but I'll hedge by throwing those guys underneath.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Man o Taz on June 10, 2016, 11:53:01 AM
I think Gettysburg will be setting a torrid pace which is exactly why they had to switch barns with him. Pletcher would enter him at a more moderate pace, but to set up Creator as you suggest it will take a quicker pace which he will provide. I say he gives way to Destin or Stradivari after about 8 furlongs. Then it is just a question about who can hold on and who can close.

I think Exaggerator gets the job done, with Destin, Lani and Creator filling in the superfecta. I see Brody's Cause as a possible coming late too.

Cherry Wine was too good his last out.

Stradivari I still think is a bit young.

Governor Malibu I wonder if he is this level of a horse yet.

Good luck to everyone.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Zenyatta on June 11, 2016, 03:48:34 PM
Exaggerator seemed very keen early on but in hindsight on this Triple Crown, while we had no Triple Crown winner, quality-wise, it was a good one: Nyquist, 2 year old champion, Florida Derby winner, wins the Derby; Exaggerator,  Santa Anita Derby winner, takes the Preakness, and Creator, Arkansas Derby champ, captures the Belmont.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: peeptoad on June 11, 2016, 03:52:26 PM
Nice job by Creator!  :thumbsup:
He was my Derby pick and got a bad trip, validated himself today... he was actually my 2nd choice here behind Gov Malibu who didn't have the best of it coming down the stretch, but probably wouldn't have won anyway.

Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Dusty on June 11, 2016, 05:19:38 PM
 I found it ---

RACE 11Track Condition:      Purse: $1,500,000
Race Type: Stakes
Age Restriction: Three Year Old
Sex Restriction: Open
Distance: One And One Half Miles On The Dirt
Chart Replay
Program #   Horse   Jockey   Win   Place   Show
13
Creator   Irad Ortiz, Jr.   $34.80   $14.60   $9.40
2
Destin   Javier Castellano      $9.40   $6.20
10
Lani   Yutaka Take         $6.60
Winning Time: 2:28.51

Also Ran: 1 - Governor Malibu,  5 - Stradivari,  12 - Brody's Cause,  3 - Cherry Wine,  6 - Gettysburg,  4 - Suddenbreakingnews,  9 - Trojan Nation,  11 - Exaggerator,  7 - Seeking the Soul,  8 - Forever d'Oro

Exaggerator really faded.....
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Flanders on June 11, 2016, 05:40:41 PM
I thought he was being pulled up the way he slowed in the stretch.  He practically walked across the finish line.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: BaroqueAgain1 on June 11, 2016, 07:20:13 PM
From what the TVG guys said while showing a replay of the race, once Kent knew that Exaggerator was done, he wrapped up on his horse. Maybe, if he had kept after the colt with strenuous urging, they'd have finished 7th or 9th instead of 11th...but IMHO, there was no good reason to be that hard on him.
Kent has always been good about taking care of his mounts, and I admire him for that.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Dusty on June 11, 2016, 09:20:00 PM
Quote from: BaroqueAgain1 on June 11, 2016, 07:20:13 PM
From what the TVG guys said while showing a replay of the race, once Kent knew that Exaggerator was done, he wrapped up on his horse. Maybe, if he had kept after the colt with strenuous urging, they'd have finished 7th or 9th instead of 11th...but IMHO, there was no good reason to be that hard on him.
Kent has always been good about taking care of his mounts, and I admire him for that.

As do I - thanks
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: peeptoad on June 12, 2016, 05:01:29 AM
Governor Malibu is a horse to watch coming out of this race imo. He's improving leaps and bounds and he would have been a lot closer to the top two had Gettysburg not shut him off mid stretch. He was making a move on the rail and the rabbit drifted right over on him causing Rosario to check and alter course. Hopefully we see him up at the Spa; I think he could make some noise in the coming months.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Flanders on June 12, 2016, 09:39:29 AM
Creator and Gettysburg will be getting a break at WinStar.  WinStar tried to move Gettysburg back to Todd Pletcher but he refused to take him back.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/212422/asmussen-basks-in-belmont-afterglow (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/212422/asmussen-basks-in-belmont-afterglow)

And now the big thing in the comment section on Bloodhorse is that WinStar essentially cheated because they used Gettysburg as a rabbit.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: BaroqueAgain1 on June 12, 2016, 10:44:49 AM
Whether you use the term 'pacemaker' or 'rabbit,' it has often been common to use one horse to set an honest pace in a race, to perhaps benefit a stablemate. It's hardly "cheating."
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: sweettalk on June 12, 2016, 02:12:15 PM
sometimes it's annoying but it's def not cheating - if the other riders know the horse is the rabbit (and let's face it, they do), what are the odds they send their horse with him and burn their mount up? i'm sure it happens, but a good rider knows what they're doing and knows the field.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: CA_Chrome on June 12, 2016, 02:40:01 PM
Actually rabbits seem to be less common now than in the past. A famous example occurred when Frank Whitely used champion sprinter Hedevar as a rabbit in the 1967 Woodward in which the three greats, Damascus, Dr. Fager and Buckpasser were entered. The sole reason Hedevar was entered was to keep Dr. Fager "honest." Damascus won that race by 10 lengths after Hedevar and Dr. Fager battled through 6F in 1:09 1/5. Buckpasser was 2nd and the Doctor was 3rd.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: BaroqueAgain1 on June 12, 2016, 03:55:38 PM
I wonder if it's possible for Tapit's fee to go even higher.
He sired the winner Creator and third-place Lani in the Belmont. Before that, Tapit sons Frosted and Anchor Down went 1-2 in the Met Mile.
I can't wait to see the new ads from Gainesway.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Flanders on June 12, 2016, 05:15:19 PM
Quote from: BaroqueAgain1 on June 12, 2016, 03:55:38 PM
I wonder if it's possible for Tapit's fee to go even higher.
He sired the winner Creator and third-place Lani in the Belmont. Before that, Tapit sons Frosted and Anchor Down went 1-2 in the Met Mile.
I can't wait to see the new ads from Gainesway.
Sure.  His foals race and sell extremely well.  Winchell uses quite a few of the breedings for their own broodmares.  They lowered his book of mares this year and I think have no intentions of increasing it.  If he jumped up to $500,000 next year, it would be warranted and breeders would pay it.  We aren't halfway done with the year and he has over $10 million in progeny earnings for 2016.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: curtis on June 12, 2016, 07:55:39 PM
Quote from: BaroqueAgain1 on June 11, 2016, 07:20:13 PM
From what the TVG guys said while showing a replay of the race, once Kent knew that Exaggerator was done, he wrapped up on his horse. Maybe, if he had kept after the colt with strenuous urging, they'd have finished 7th or 9th instead of 11th...but IMHO, there was no good reason to be that hard on him.
Kent has always been good about taking care of his mounts, and I admire him for that.
Yeah, I've seen him finish third when he could have been second, fourth when he could have been third many times. Expect it?  Sure, admire it?  Not so much.
Title: Re: Belmont Stakes
Post by: Man o Taz on June 13, 2016, 11:14:42 AM
Quote from: BaroqueAgain1 on June 12, 2016, 10:44:49 AM
Whether you use the term 'pacemaker' or 'rabbit,' it has often been common to use one horse to set an honest pace in a race, to perhaps benefit a stablemate. It's hardly "cheating."

Exactly.

I never liked it when Hedavar was used against Dr. Fager, but there was nothing unfair about entering a horse, and more than one so-called "rabbit" has ended up running away with a race.  :D