MOT's Derby Dozen

[Zenyatta]

It's good to see Kayla Stra FINALLY getting some good mounts. 

I'm surprised (but not THAT surprised) that Shared Belief wasn't in the Sham.  Apparently there was some talk on HRTV last week about his being entered, but I had heard he was being pointed for the Robert B Lewis.

[Man o Taz]

Originally, Shared Belief was pointed to the Robert Lewis, but that changed later in the month when Mr. Hollendorfer in an article indicated that he would be pointed to the Robert Lewis.

It would be a shame if one of the top two year olds did not make it to the Kentucky Derby.   

[peeptoad]

Originally, Shared Belief was pointed to the Robert Lewis, but that changed later in the month when Mr. Hollendorfer in an article indicated that he would be pointed to the Robert Lewis.

It would be a shame if one of the top two year olds did not make it to the Kentucky Derby.   

He's a savvy trainer; I'm sure he will do what's right for the horse...


In other (un-extraordinary) news: I have a Derby list of 2 right now, ha ha:

1. Shared Belief
2. Gold Hawk

[Senator L]

I've got a grand total of 4

1) Havana
2) Shared Belief
3) Rise Up
4) Rankhasprivileges

[Man o Taz]

These picks include their points total/latest Las Vegas odds

1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 4/25-1
Next race: Jan. 25 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
http://blogs.courier-journal.com/racing/2014/01/12/2014-kentucky-derby-cairo-prince-works-5f-in-59-45-for-holy-bull-velazquez-getting-on-horses/

2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat) 14/10-1
Next race: Feb. 22 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.   
http://terryconway.net/cms/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=340:honor-code-top-2014-kentucky-derby-contender&catid=7:pa-equestrian&Itemid=9

3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat) 0/12-1
Next race: Feb. 8 Robert Lewis Stakes Santa Anita Park?
http://www.kentucky.com/2014/01/16/3037696/shared-belief-recovering-from.html

4. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere) 2/40-1
Next race: Jan. 25 California Cup Derby at Santa Anita Park.

5. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man) 14/35-1
Next race: Feb. 22 G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
http://www.drf.com/news/2013-eclipse-awards-havana

6. Strong Mandate ( and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister) 30-1
Next race: Feb. 17 G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park

7. Bond Holder (Mineshaft and Cielo Girl by Conquistador Cielo) 11/50-1
Next race: Feb. 8 Robert B. Lewis Stakes or Mar. 8 San Felipe Stakes?.

8. Lunarwarfare (War Pass and Lunar Star by Silver Ghost) 175-1
Next race: Unknown.

9. Tap It Rich (Tapit and Gold Canyon by Mr. Prospector) 25-1
Next race: Unknown.

10. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 12/28-1
Next race: March 29 G2 Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds

11. Corfu (Malibu Moon and Fashion Cat by Forest Wildcat) 325-1
Next race: Unknown.

12. Laddie Boy (War Pass and Lil's Lassie by Lil's Lad) 4/125-1
Next race: Unknown.

Honorable Mentions:
We Miss Artie (Artie Schiller and Athena's Gift by Fusaichi Pegasus) 10/100-1
Next race: Unknown.

Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro and Pretty Smart by Beau Genius) 65-1
Next race: Feb. 8 Robert Lewis Stakes Santa Anita Park?

Mr. Speaker (Pulpit and Salute by Unbridled) 100-1
Next race: Jan. 25 Holy Bully Stakes at Gulfstream Park

[BaroqueAgain1]

  It seems like they're waiting a long time for Tapiture to return to the races if he's not running until the end of March.

[Man o Taz]

True.

The Louisiana Derby may end up the goal...and they'll run in the Risen Star or elsewhere.

With 10 points being the limit necessary to enter the Derby last year frankly he probably does not have to run more than once before the Derby and finish in the top four to guarantee a spot in the gate.

It will be interesting to see if its less than 10 this year with a contraction of races on the schedule providing points.

[Man o Taz]

Here's a Haskin Derby Dozen teaser...

The Keyword is 'If'

In this initial look at the Derby picture, we're going to throw some "ifs" around in preparation for the first Derby Dozen, which will not be an easy task this year (Is it ever?).

If Conquest Titan can duplicate his allowance victory in the Holy Bull Stakes, he is going to give Cairo Prince and everyone else more than they can handle. As it is, he is a Top 5 contender right now, based on his electrifying turn of foot and powerhouse move between and around horses in the allowance race. It was the first time they've taken him far back off the pace after his unsuccessful attempts at being a speed horse. He has the mind and the raw talent to be any kind. Wynn had him at 85-1 and the Holy Bull could make those odds look like the bargain of the year.

If Mr Speaker can handle dirt (and he sure is bred for it) in the Holy Bull the way he's handled grass, the sky's the limit for this regally bred colt by Pulpit, out of Salute, who has shown the kind of acceleration and willingness to go through tight spots you want to see in a young horse. The ideal scenario in the Holy Bull is for both him and Conquest Titan colts to move forward and establish themselves as legitimate Derby contenders. Shug McGaughey also has Honor Code, who is the most magnificent physical specimen we've seen so far from this group, but don't forget about Top Billing, who has a bright future, as well.

If we're bold enough to put Wicked Strong ahead of Shared Belief, Honor Code, Havana, and the other top Derby horses, we could have a live 50-1 shot (at Wynn) at the top of the list. Everything about his maiden score and his third in the Remsen, in which he closed into blazing final fractions and was just getting in gear in the final 70 yards, indicates this is major talent who is only going to get better. He still has learning to do, as he shied from the whip on three occasions in the stretch, but is in the capable hands of Jimmy Jerkens.

If Gold Hawk can come close to duplicating his first two races in his stakes debut in the LeComte Stakes, in which he looked brilliant and displayed a beautiful way of going, Steve Asmussen could actually have a better shot at the Derby than he did with the very lightly raced Curlin. For all the RF (Rasmussen Factor) followers (me being one), this colt is inbred to the Tartan Stable mare Grand Splendor through her daughters Killaloe, dam of Fappiano, and Gonfalon, dam of Ogygian.

If Mexikoma continues to work steadily at Palm Meadows, he should return with a vengeance following a less-than-ideal trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and should stamp himself as a leading Derby contender right off the bat. That maiden romp at Delaware Park was just too good a race from a visual standpoint.

If Shared Belief handles the dirt and stays sound (no more minor setbacks), he looks like The Big Hoss; it's as simple as that. No one has come close to duplicating what he accomplished last year and how good he looked doing it. He's just a flat-out talented horse with a killer turn of foot. But all his starts have been on a synthetic surface. From the side, you have to love the way he drops his shoulder and covers ground down the stretch. But the only nagging little thing is his stride from a head-on view. He has a tendency to angle his body in and doesn't get his legs under him the way you'd like to see, especially the way he paddles his left front leg. This won't affect his performance and could mean absolutely nothing in the long run, and his connections are unconcerned.

If Havana looks like anything like a Derby horse in his return and gives any indication he wants to go a distance of ground, he's as brilliant as any of them, and his credentials of winning the Champagne and finishing second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile were as impressive as any 2-year-old. Remember, his sire, Dunkirk, ran huge to finish second in the Belmont Stakes and his broodmare sire, Kyle's Our Man, is from a stout Darby Dan family.

If Bob Baffert can keep his army intact this year, he should hold a powerful hand, even with the loss of New Year's Day. Midnight Hawk still has improving to do, but his Sham score was a big step forward, as he did most of it on his own.

So, consider this just a teaser as the first Derby Dozen approaches.

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2014/01/13/new-king-of-the-derby-trail.aspx#ixzz2qgnE6uEN

[The Tin Man]

Let's add Roger Rocket to my very short list.

He debuted for Baffert today and was very impressive to me. Pressed the lead, fell back, re-rallied and then fought nose to nose with another horse for the win ... all in his debut ...

Pretty damn professional for a 1st timer and he's a pretty darn impressive looking fella too.

Nice time also! 

So my Derby list is now ...

Shared Belief
Indianapolis
Rocket Rocket
Havana

Oh well ... hopefully some others will catch my eye between now and Derby Day ... But I REALLY like the 4 that have thus far. 

[Dance With Gable]

Didn't see the race, but I read the chart ... it appears that after his small hiatus from the track, my boy Indianapolis romped today!

Can't wait to see the replay! 

[Senator L]

Didn't see the race, but I read the chart ... it appears that after his small hiatus from the track, my boy Indianapolis romped today!

Can't wait to see the replay!

Very impressive I thought the 3 would collar him after the turn, and all he got was dust

[Delamont]

Hmmmm....

Havana
Indianapolis
Midnight Hawk.

Bear in mind that my previous picks were Frac Daddy, Normandy Invasion, and Super Ninety Nine.

[Dance With Gable]

Hmmmm....

Havana
Indianapolis
Midnight Hawk.

Bear in mind that my previous picks were Frac Daddy, Normandy Invasion, and Super Ninety Nine.

No Shared Belief?

[Man o Taz]

Indianapolis will be joining my next list as more than an honorable mention.

I am waiting to see what happens in the Holy Bull this weekend.

Midnight Hawk had a nice win in the Sham, but I would like to see him against better competition.

Another horse on my list - We Miss Artie had his first start in 2013 and game in second in the Kitten's Joy. I wonder if he'll try the Palm Beach next and then head to Keeneland for the Bluegrass Stakes.

I also have to consider the addition of Vicar's In Trouble - winner of the Lecomte...Into Mischief - the son of Harlan's Holiday is making his presence felt in 2012 with Shanghai Bobby, in 2013 with Goldencents and Vyjack and now with VIT in 2014...

[Man o Taz]

KEY - Three Year Old - Pedigree - Derby Points Total/Las Vegas Odds Last Check

1. Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile and Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull) 14/25-1
Next race: Feb. 22 G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes or Mar. 29 G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park

A nice performance in the Holy Bull making his sire proud with a BSF that improved significantly from his prior performance in the Remsen Stakes. He stays on top for me. It will be great to see his reacquaintance with Honor Code whether it be in the FOY or FD. Personally, I hope its the FOY because I would like to see him in person.

2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy and by Serena's Cat by Storm Cat) 14/10-1
Next race: Feb. 22 G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.   

3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride and Common Hope by Storm Cat) 0/12-1
Next race: Mar. 8  G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park

Disappointing he missed his work. I hope he can make the Derby because he's a beautiful horse that runs effortlessly and one of the best of this generation, but more importantly I want him to be fit. I know he has some of the best connections in that area so I am confident they will do what is best for him. Hope to see him out East sometime this year.

4. Tamarando (Bertrando and Tamarack Bay by Dehere) 2/40-1
Next race: Feb. 16 G2 San Vicente Stakes or Mar. 29 G2 Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds?

Since his win the G1 Del Mar Futurity he just has not been able to find the winner's circle. He was beaten by a sharp horse in California Chrome. I wonder if they may take him back a notch to 7 furlongs for this race.

5. Havana (Dunkirk and Missy Turtle by Kyle's Our Man) 14/35-1
Next race: Feb. 22 G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

6. Strong Mandate (Tiznow and Clear Mandate by Deputy Minister) 2/30-1
Next race: Feb. 17 G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park

7. California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase by Mr. Prospector's Not For Love) 0/N-A
Next race: Mar. 8  G2 San Felipe Stakes Santa Anita Park

8. Bond Holder (Mineshaft and Cielo Girl by Conquistador Cielo) 11/50-1
Next race: Feb. 22 Risen Star Stakes at The Fairgrounds?

9. Tapiture (Tapit and Free Spin by Olympio) 12/28-1
Next race: March 29 G2 Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds

10. Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro and Pretty Smart by Beau Genius) 65-1
Next race: Feb. 16 G2 San Vicente Stakes Santa Anita Park?

Congrats for his stakes win. We know he can run fast. This is an interesting place for a potential Kentucky Derby entry, but who am I to second guess one of the best Derby prep trainers around in Mr. Baffert.

11. Mr. Speaker (Pulpit and Salute by Unbridled) 0/100-1
Next race: Mar. 1 G3 Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park

A disappointing effort in the Holy Bull with a 7th place finish. It seemed he was right with Cairo Prince until just passed the top of the stretch where he started fading. Was it the dirt? It can't be the distance since he broke his maiden at this distance. I think the Palm Beach is a good spot for him. He can take the same route to the Derby that Rydyluc tried last year winning the Palm Beach and then trying the Blue Grass Stakes if its meant to be.

12. Tap It Rich (Tapit and Gold Canyon by Mr. Prospector) 0/25-1
Next race: Unknown.

Honorable Mentions:

We Miss Artie (Artie Schiller and Athena's Gift by Fusaichi Pegasus) 10/100-1
Next race: G3 Palm Beach Stakes?

He was a second place finisher in the Kitten's Joy Stakes. We'll see if he just needed a race under his belt. Perhaps he just needs to get back to Keeneland.

Laddie Boy (War Pass and Lil's Lassie by Lil's Lad) 4/125-1
Next race: Unknown.

Vicar's In Trouble (Into Mischief and Vibrant by Vicar) 10/N-A
Next race: Feb. 22 G2 Risen Star at The Fairgrounds

Like his breeding. A great grandson of Wild Again. He also has already done better with the Lecomte Stakes win than Into Mischief's famous two year old son Shanghai Bobby ever did as a three year old.