American Freedom
Arrogate
Connect
Creator
Destin
Economic Model
Exaggerator
Gift Box
Governor Malibu
Laoban
Mohaymen
Mo Tom
Big field possible...
Mohaymen to bypass the Travers and head to the one turn King's Bishop.
Probably smart.
A full field of 14 is expected for the draw tonight:
American Freedom
Anaximandros
Arrogate
Connect
Creator
Destin
Exaggerator
Forever d'Oro
Gift Box
Governor Malibu
Gun Runner
Laoban
Majesto
My Man Sam
1./ Gov Malibu
2./ Destin
3./ Exagerator
The full field is listed here in post position order, along with morning-line odds courtesy of Travis Stone. With Odds
Arrogate 10-1 (Mike Smith)
American Freedom 6-1 (Rafael Bejarano)
My Man Sam 20-1 (Manny Franco)
Governor Malibu 12-1 (Joel Rosario)
Forever d'Oro 30-1 (Luis Saez)
Anaximandros 50-1 (Leonel Reyes)
Exaggerator 3-1 (Kent Desormeaux)
Destin 10-1 (Javier Castellano)
Gift Box 12-1 (Junior Alvarado)
Connect 4-1 (John Velazquez)
Majesto 30-1 (Ricardo Santana, Jr.)
Creator 15-1 (Irad Ortiz, Jr.)
Laoban 15-1 (Jose Ortiz)
Gun Runner 10-1 (Florent Geroux)
pps on the way:
https://downthestretchs.com/ (https://downthestretchs.com/)
...looks like some value in this race for sure. Gift Box, in particular, at 12/1 might be bank...
Quote from: peeptoad on August 24, 2016, 05:25:35 AM
...looks like some value in this race for sure.
Agree, but in Baffert we trust!
American Freedom, Creator, Destin, Exaggerator, and Governor Malibu is my trifecta...in no particular order...
Quote from: stark on August 24, 2016, 08:45:18 AM
Agree, but in Baffert we trust!
I suspect only one of the Baffert charges will be a reasonable price come post time. Likely at least 4 horses will be under 5/1 I'm thinking... Maybe I'm wrong, but there's still value to be had! Of course Gift Box is one I think will get bet, but I ain't married to him at all. Was just remembering his trip as compared to Connect in the Curlin S.
It seems outside of CA Bejarano doesn't seem to get it done. Even if you like the fave you'll still
get at least 2-1 on a dry track. For an absolute bomb take a gander at Anaximandros he is
going to love the extra distance.
Going to be a fun race to bet :chickendance:
If Governor Malibu is 12/1 at post time, he will be a big overlay!!
Quote from: Senator L on August 24, 2016, 02:54:56 PM
For an absolute bomb take a gander at Anaximandros he is
going to love the extra distance.
Going to be a fun race to bet :chickendance:
I liked this horse in the WV Derby and he ran an okay 4th at 50-1. I didn't bet him then, but maybe bombs away this time. :chickendance:
Governor Malibu is my rather tepid top pick. I also like Gift Box, but this is wide open. I think the Gov is turning into a wise guy, so his price may drop whereas I think Gift Box might drift. Might box those two with Amer Freedom. I don't like Arrogate in this spot, but now watch him win.
Quote from: peeptoad on August 27, 2016, 07:32:06 AM
I don't like Arrogate in this spot, but now watch him win.
Thanks in advance :lmao:
You're welcome, B.
I'm serious- I don't like him so he'll probably win. Mike Beer likes him, so you're in good company.
I don't like the post, the class jump (at this stage), the races he's coming out of and the fact that he's set relatively moderate fractions in most of his races going gate-wire. He finishes well though, I'll give him that.
Eh, I'll let him beat me.
Or, as an alternative, I say bet Castellano... he's been on the winner 4 out of the last 6 Travers.
:chickendance:
Quote from: peeptoad on August 27, 2016, 08:22:19 AM
Mike Beer likes him, so you're in good company.
So does the RagozinSheet guru, so my price might be waaay too short to take the rubber band off and step up to the windows.
Quote from: stark on August 27, 2016, 08:44:33 AM
So does the RagozinSheet guru, so my price might be waaay too short to take the rubber band off and step up to the windows.
Not in the market for a money clip, huh? ;)
Is it true.....
A program at Saratoga on Travers Day costs $7.00
Geesh, that's like The Parting Glass or Morton's Steak House charging for a menu!
$5 for one last Sat. I'm sure they bumped it up for Travers Day. A couple of years ago the Whitney program was $6.
Nice pick stark!!!!! :)
Quote from: peeptoad on August 27, 2016, 02:49:25 PM
Nice pick stark!!!!! :)
Thank$ very much.
And the problem with the metal ones is they don't hold very much ;D
(https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ2SdSJr-DEpi0aOeRF6__SQAXr8bf-oGnOvup2Xgraf5zwQeN7)
Quote from: stark on August 24, 2016, 08:45:18 AM
Agree, but in Baffert we trust!
Good call!!!
That was awesome.
Quote from: Raven on August 27, 2016, 04:42:40 PM
Good call!!!
That was awesome.
Thank$
$1.00 EXACTA 1-2 $67.25
Steve Byk @Steve_Byk 46m46 minutes ago Saratoga Springs, NY
Unprecedented 122 Beyer (prelim) for @JuddmonteFarms' Arrogate (Unbridled's Song) under Mike Smith for Bob Baffert.
Quote from: stark on August 27, 2016, 05:51:15 PM
Steve Byk @Steve_Byk 46m46 minutes ago Saratoga Springs, NY
Unprecedented 122 Beyer (prelim) for @JuddmonteFarms' Arrogate (Unbridled's Song) under Mike Smith for Bob Baffert.
I believe it was upgraded to a 123. If he stays sound, we could be talking about greatness here rather than just one freakish performance. He's 4 for 5, with wins against older already. I say keep him over there and either run him in the PA Derby or JCGC.
Arrogate reminds me of Bellamy Road in the 2005 Wood Memorial. And he never won a race after that one. We shall see.
Quote from: afleetphil on August 29, 2016, 06:02:00 AM
Arrogate reminds me of Bellamy Road in the 2005 Wood Memorial. And he never won a race after that one. We shall see.
I wasn't nearly as impressed by Bellamy Road's win because it was much earlier in the year against a much lesser field. Arrogate, however, beat a much more seasoned field composed of many graded stakes winners. Granted, the best of the field other than Arrogate was a mudder, but you've got many G1 and G2 winners in the field and he clobbered them.
I've been a horse racing fan for over 50 years; this was the most impressive race by a 3 year old I can recall since Secretariat's Belmont.
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/a-numerical-perspective-on-arrogates-travers (http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/a-numerical-perspective-on-arrogates-travers)
Niiiice... as fast or faster than anything Chrome has ever run, faster as an individual # than AP's races, and very close to Frosted's Met, but likely with more room for improvement . Niiiice....
One for the historians of the game....
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cq_RVMeWAAMFnnj.jpg)
They have photos of Longden setting the win record--on Arrogate, no not this Arrogate but that Arrogate--and Shoe later breaking Longden's record on a filly named Dares J up on the wall in the clubhouse at Del Mar. Both records were set on Labor Day fourteen years apart. The only problem is, the photos are switched. Longden is identified as Shoemaker and vice versa.
How could you remember he broke that record with Arrogate?
I have trouble with the month I'm in... :chickendance:
Here's a piece that touches on the old and the new:
http://www.drf.com/news/hovdey-it-aint-arrogating-if-you-can-do-it (http://www.drf.com/news/hovdey-it-aint-arrogating-if-you-can-do-it)
Quote from: Senator L on August 31, 2016, 10:24:21 AM
How could you remember he broke that record with Arrogate?
I have trouble with the month I'm in... :chickendance:
I used to run into a now retired sportswriter at the gym near where I used to live in so. CA. He once told me that people who are fanatics of horse racing and baseball, have more arcane facts committed to memory than anyone else. I've always remembered that Longden was on Arrogate when he set his record. He rode George Royal in what is recognized as his last race and win. (In what is truly an arcane fact can anyone name Longden's last mount in a sanctioned race?). Shoe rode Dares J when he broke Longden's record, Royal Derby when he won his 7,000th and War Allied when he won his 8,000th. Shoe's last ride was on Patchy Groundfog. When the Fox Hills Farm colt, Kentuckian, looked to have a future last year, I remarked that seeing the name made me think of a talented TV Lark horse from the '70's with the same name. The former was a real in and outer who was frustrating for anyone who owned, trained or rode him. Someone said that the current Kentuckian would certainly make me forget the other. I'm still waiting. As for the Arrogates, because of the milestone, I'll always remember the former but this current Arrogate looks like something else.
And I remember because I lost the photo, tough beat!
Quote from: stark on September 01, 2016, 10:39:51 AM
And I remember because I lost the photo, tough beat!
Honey's Alibi, a real nice CA bred. Owned by Harry Warner, I believe. When Louis B. Mayer dispersed his stable, I think Warner bought the great CA bred mare Honeymoon from him. It was like one movie mogul signing a starlet away from another. Do you know to which movie mogul Joe Harper is related? Don't get me started on baseball.😉
You two certainly have been around :chickendance:
thanks for sharing your memories
That would be Cecil.
I'm glad I'm not the only one who remembers the "original" Kentuckian. His sire, T V Lark, was my first fave. And, I was there for Longden's Last Ride.
Yeah, I'm old. :-(
Quote from: Diver52 on September 01, 2016, 02:56:48 PM
I'm glad I'm not the only one who remembers the "original" Kentuckian. His sire, T V Lark, was my first fave. And, I was there for Longden's Last Ride.
Yeah, I'm old. :-(
Loved the original Kentuckian. I remember him paying boxcars in the American Handicap at Hollywood Park. Rudy Campas must have hit him fifty times down the stretch. My favorite TV Lark was Quack. Except for my two knuckle headed OTTB's he's my favorite. I'm not as old as I sound--53--but my family saw a lot and shared their memories. My father saw Seabiscuit run many times. He knew everything, it seemed, Laura Hilldebrand unearthed, save for George Woolf being diabetic. I do remember seeing Majestic Prince and most of what came after that.
Quote from: stark on September 01, 2016, 02:16:24 PM
That would be Cecil.
Bingo!! Sounds like you're ready for your close up!😉
Just to totally digress for a moment.....
So here's today's typical Pick4 from TVG...
5x4x3x1
12 horses on your ticket for a cost of $30 at the 50cent increment.
Back in the day I honestly believe we had to be better handicappers and learned how to focus on picking winners! Gimmicks have since led many to the poorhouse. Oh sure, discipline is the key but who has that nowadays?
If you liked parlays, you had the early double, period.
If you had $6 you could walk up to the "combo" window, those ticket multicolors were especially pretty when torn up!
If you liked exactas they cost you $5 each, boxing 3 horses cost $30 back when $30 actually meant something, and you could play races 5-7-9.
And then came Pick3s where the minimum cost was $3 per combination, that'll get you to narrow down your choices in a hurry!
Geeesh, speaking of "don't get me started" please accept my apologies, we return you now to your regularly scheduled program.
And then there was my Grandmother's method. While in college, I read the book The Boys of Summer. Lately I recommended the book to my wife, who loved it, and daughter who has yet to read it. Because of that book, over the last few months, I have cashed double digit payoffs on Junior Gilliam, Preacher Roe and, just today, Pee Wee Reese. It ain't scientific and anybody named Andy (S or B) would laugh in my face but Granny would be proud. Yeah I remember the $5 Exactas--I have an orange $5 Exacta sign from Del Mar hanging in my tack room. A three horse baseball, cost you $30. There must be poetry in that somewhere.
I believe Moose Skowron belongs in that group too.
Lots of systems have worked very well over the years.....wife liked the greys in the mud but had no idea who Relaunch was!
Quote from: stark on September 01, 2016, 04:44:47 PM
I believe Moose Skowron belongs in that group too.
Lots of systems have worked very well over the years.....wife liked the greys in the mud but had no idea who Relaunch was!
Moose Skowran was a Yankee although I think he had a cup of coffee with the 1960's post Koufax Dodgers. He is in my stable mail though. All those baseball themed named horses are bred by Nick Alexander. We've got one named Archie Graham--of Field of Dreams fame--running up here currently at EMD.
Not that she would have caught much of a payoff but I hope your wife was with you whenever Stardust Mel ran. He was actually registered as brown. Not sure what they were looking at, must of typed the
B instead of the
G. The best payoff I ever had with a gray in the mud was on a horse named Sassoon at Santa Anita. The horse won about once every Ice Age but he loved mud and caught a ridiculously sloppy track one opening day in the late '70's with Shoemaker up. Didn't matter that he was gray, by the end of the race Sassoon and Shoe were mud colored.
Quote from: afleetphil on August 29, 2016, 06:02:00 AM
Arrogate reminds me of Bellamy Road in the 2005 Wood Memorial. And he never won a race after that one. We shall see.
A nice analogy. And an impressive win.
I told people this horse has no chance. A lot I knew. LOL
We shall see how he does. How do folks feel about the idea of his training up to the big race? I always like a prep race within 4-6 weeks of the BC, especially for a lightly raced 3 year old, but Bob Baffert knows his stuff. Only 3 horses have won off a longer than 3 week layoff...American Pharoah, Invasor and I forget who the third was that I read somewhere.
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 08, 2016, 07:44:22 AM
A nice analogy. And an impressive win.
I told people this horse has no chance. A lot I knew. LOL
We shall see how he does. How do folks feel about the idea of his training up to the big race? I always like a prep race within 4-6 weeks of the BC, especially for a lightly raced 3 year old, but Bob Baffert knows his stuff. Only 3 horses have won off a longer than 3 week layoff...American Pharoah, Invasor and I forget who the third was that I read somewhere.
It may have been Sunday Silence.
Invasor was actually 4 on both calendars by the time of the BC as he was foaled in August of 2002. He was allowed to run in the UAE Derby that year because by Southern Hemisphere standards--their birthday is July 1--he was still 3 and in Dubai they allow that. In essence, he was approximately 4-6 months or more older than most of his competition in that race. So even if he had won by the length of the stretch, Invasor was ineligible for the 2006 TC races or any race restricted to 3 year-olds in this country. In North America, it doesn't matter when during the year the horse is born, it will still become a yearling the next January 1st. So when he won the BC Classic he was 4--a young 4, but 4 nonetheless.
Thanks.
Sunday Silence won the Super Derby as a BC prep. I am wrong. There were only 2 - Invasor and American Pharoah. Which means only 1 real 3 year old won the BC without a prep within 6 weeks of the race.
Is Arrogate that quality horse? I guess we will find out.
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 09, 2016, 11:05:58 AM
Thanks.
Sunday Silence won the Super Derby as a BC prep. I am wrong. There were only 2 - Invasor and American Pharoah. Which means only 1 real 3 year old won the BC without a prep within 6 weeks of the race.
Is Arrogate that quality horse? I guess we will find out.
I remember that now, Whittingham gave Sunday Silence only a 1:33 and change afternoon mile workout, in lieu of a race, between the Swaps and the Super Derby and then he went on to the Classic.
Arrogate is a quality horse. The pp's didn't do him justice, I think you needed to watch a replay of his races to appreciate him. I was getting on a plane on Travers Day to come home from Del Mar. My wife asked who I liked in the Travers, I sighed and replied Arrogate and put just a nominal online bet on him. I told her it was probably a dumb bet because I thought he needed to be 5-1 or more to be playable and I thought that he would probably go off at about 7-2. When the plane landed and I turned on my phone a message congratulating Arrogate for his record breaking win in the Travers was the first thing to appear. That didn't shock me, what shocked me was that he went off at 11-1. Now I have no clue how long he's going to last because Unbridled Song's always seem to be on borrowed time. If Baffert can keep him going through next year though, I think you'll see some special things.
I hope so. Unbridled Song has had so many promising sons that had their racing careers end too early, it would be really nice to see him get a horse that can show brilliance for a full year or more.
I just hope he races out East next year a couple of times. :-)
It would be nice to see he and Songbird meet in the Woodward or BC Classic.
Quote from: curtis on September 01, 2016, 05:03:12 PM
All those baseball themed named horses are bred by Nick Alexander. We've got one named Archie Graham--of Field of Dreams fame--running up here currently at EMD.
Not sure if Nick Alexander Imports runs any in the Bay Area where it could be fully appreciated, but I'm thinking DON'T LOOK AT ME would be a good name for a horse, Giants fan or not ;D
Quote from: stark on October 10, 2016, 11:41:24 AM
Not sure if Nick Alexander Imports runs any in the Bay Area where it could be fully appreciated, but I'm thinking DON'T LOOK AT ME would be a good name for a horse, Giants fan or not ;D
Alexander has had horses with Steve Miyadi in the Bay Area. I think Miyadi said that, or something similar to Alex Solis. Although it might have been Don't Ride For Me....I forget.😉 There is a horse in so. CA named Mad Bum. I don't think he's one of Alexander's though. I go to AZ for a few days of Spring Training every March. I'm hoping that Mad Bum and the Evil Ones come to play the Dodgers while I'm there. I plan on imploring that red a$$ to not Look At Me at every opportunity.
:)