My question is how you would handle Debry elgibility or would you allow 40 horses to enter the Derby?

My goal is to make the race as competitive as posisble. For me the most competitve race is the one that allows the best horses the best chance to compete.

In such a large field where the horse in the 1-2 posts do not have the same chances as the rest, I see the race as very flawed.

In such a large field where there are at least 5 horses that stand little to no chance of winning, but often can cause problems for some of the best horses that do have a chance of winning, I see that as flawed.

Glad to see Irsih War Cry win the Marylander and Gormley rebound in the Sham.

Genuine Risk is not the only one...

You just have to look forward and not back.

As I note, we would not have had Mine That Bird under the current system or War Emblem.

Which is exactly why Churchill Downs would never agree to it. But one can dream. :-)

But in 2016, I do not think it would have made much of a difference outcome wise. Granted, Mo Tom finished 6th...but out of the money. His connections would be upset, but if the standards are that you need 50 points so be it.

Rank   Horse   Trainer   Points   Non-Restricted
1   Gun Runner   Steve Asmussen   151   $849,200
2   Nyquist   Doug O'Neill   130   $3,289,000
3   Exaggerator   Keith Desormeaux   126   $1,628,000
4   Outwork   Todd Pletcher   120   $660,000
5   Brody's Cause   Dale Romans   114   $1,100,000
6   Creator   Steve Asmussen   110   $690,000
7   Lani   Mikio Matsunaga   100   $1,300,119
8   Mor Spirit   Bob Baffert   84   $616,800
9   Mohaymen   Kiaran McLaughlin   80   $807,750
10   Danzig Candy   Cliff Sise Jr.   60   $290,000
11   Destin   Todd Pletcher   51   $338,000
12   Suddenbreakingnews   Donnie Von Hemel   50   $637,000
13   Cupid   Bob Baffert   50   $542,857
14   *Oscar Nominated   Mike Maker   50   $321,360
15   Shagaf   Chad Brown   50   $270,000
16   Whitmore   Ron Moquett   44   $400,000
17   Tom's Ready   Dallas Stewart   44   $270,670
18   My Man Sam   Chad Brown    40   $200,000
19   Majesto   Gustavo Delgado   40   $190,000
20   Trojan Nation   Paddy Gallagher   40   $190,000
21   Mo Tom   Tom Amoss   32   $268,326

Rank   Horse   Points   Trainer       Stakes Earnings
1   International Star   171   Mike Maker   $940,979
2   Dortmund   170   Bob Baffert   $1,230,000
3   Carpe Diem   164   Todd Pletcher   $1,470,000
4   American Pharoah   160   Bob Baffert   $1,410,000
5   Frosted   113   Kiaran McLaughlin   $776,200
6   Mubtaahij-IRE   100   Mike de Kock   $1,400,000
7   Materiality   100   Todd Pletcher   $632,028
8   El Kabeir   95   John Terranova II   $720,792
9   Upstart   76   Rick Violette, Jr.    $807,680
10   Far Right   62   Ron Moquette   $585,906
11   Itsaknockout   60   Todd Pletcher   $288,560
12   Firing Line   58   Simon Callaghan   $530,000
13   Danzig Moon   45   Mark Casse   $217,500
14   War Story   44   Tom Amoss   $195,000
15   Tencendur   41   George Weaver   $224,500
16   Stanford   40   Todd Pletcher   $151,400
17   Mr. Z   34   D. Wayne Lukas   $625,826
18   Ocho Ocho Ocho   30   Jim Cassidy   $760,250
19   Bolo   30   Carla Gaines   $214,980
20   Madefromlucky   30   Todd Pletcher   $200,000
21   Keen Ice   22   Dale Romans   $136,520
22   Frammento   20   Nick Zito   $92,800

Now, 5th place finisher Danzig Moon would have been out, and there could actually be a provision that if less than 15 horses or whatever the field size is before the aux gate - then Churchill Downs has an option of having a committee put together additonal entries to make certain at least 14-15 horses are in the gate. 

Rank    Horse    Points   Stakes Earnings
1    California Chrome   150   $782,250
2    Vicar's in Trouble   120   $760,000
3    Dance With Fate   108   $600,000
4    Wicked Strong   102   $640,000
5    Samraat   100   $650,000
6    Danza   100   $620,000
7    Constitution   100   $600,000
8    Hoppertunity   95   $576,000
9    Intense Holiday   93   $527,500
10    Wildcat Red   90   $665,500
11    We Miss Artie   60   $544,000
12    Ride on Curlin   55   $354,387
13    Chitu   54   $440,000
14    Tapiture   52   $470,378
15    Midnight Hawk   52   $320,500
16    Ring Weekend   50   $260,000
17    General a Rod   40   $240,000
18    Medal Count   40   $226,500
19    Candy Boy   30   $380,000
20    Cairo Prince   24   $520,000
21    Uncle Sigh   24   $180,000
22    Vinceremos   20   $191,666
23    Harry's Holiday   20   $152,622
24    Commanding Curve   20   $140,000

Here is where the controversy starts in that Commanding Curve would not have been in the race. But if that is the system that is the system since Mine That Bird and woudl not have been in the race in 2009 with the points system and neither would 2002 Illiinois Derby winner War Emblem.

Rank   Horse   Trainer   Points   Non-restricted Stakes Earnings
1   Orb   Shug McGaughey III   150   $840,000
2   Verrazano   Todd Pletcher   150   $810,000
3   Goldencents   Doug O'Neill   129   $1,208,000
4   Java's War   Ken McPeek   122   $651,772
5   Overanalyze   Todd Pletcher   110   $908,831
6   Revolutionary   Todd Pletcher   110   $720,000
7   Lines of Battle   Aidan O'Brien   100   $1,261,089
8   Vyjack   Rudy Rodriguez   70   $505,000
9   Will Take Charge   D. Wayne Lukas   60   $512,971
10   Itsmyluckyday   Eddie Plesa, Jr.   50   $593,600
11   Black Onyx   Kelly Breen   50   $317,130
12   Palace Malice   Todd Pletcher   50   $200,000
13   Normandy Invasion   Chad Brown   44   $258,000
14   Frac Daddy   Ken McPeek   44   $240,596
15   Mylute   Tom Amoss   42   $363,365
16   Oxbow   D. Wayne Lukas   36   $346,000
17   Falling Sky   John Terranova II   30   $207,500
18   Charming Kitten   Todd Pletcher   20   $206,000
19   Golden Soul   Dallas Stewart   14   $84,000
20   Giant Finish   Tony Dutrow   10   $67,650

Another 2nd place finisher, Golden Soul excluded...

I also think another benefit of requiring more points may be to slightly expand those races that count for points a bit more like the Illinois Derby.

You are right about the emphasis being more on how to get in than who being a problem. But I thought Coolmore was smart in what they did.

And you have to have some criteria for the Derby, don't you?

Or are you old school and want the race to be run in two heats with as many entrants as are interested in running?

I like the point system because it forces lesser horses to run more to get into the race and places more emphasis on 3 year old racing.

Was graded stakes earnings a better indicator? I do not necessarily think so.

My only issue with the point system was tossing out the Illinois Derby as a points race, though I would also like a point threshold of 50 points for a horse to enter the Derby gate, rather than the top 20 every year. Then you really do only have entries with merit. Less horses. Less fees. But better horses.

Quote from: Dusty on January 06, 2017, 11:04:05 PM
REALLY??? Songbird for HOY>>>>

I was not surprised by that at all. In fact, I think that she has a stronger case than Arrogate for the award.

I have a fairly routine way of examining year end awards. The first test is a horse's own division. Songbird raced 8 times. She was undefeated in her division in stakes company every time.

She raced in 5 G1 races - 4 against the best of her division and one against the best filies and mares running. She did very well. There is no doubt that she deserves champion 3 year old.

Arrogate on the other hand lost a race. It was not a stakes race. It was not against the best horses in the division.
Arrogate did not face stakes company until late August.
He raced in two stakes races.
He was spectacular.
But there is a strong case that can be made that Exaggertaor with his campaign deserves champion 3 year old more than Arrogate does. Do I totally agree with it? No. It is flawed, but there is no doubt that Exaggerator had a much tougher campaign than Arrogate did.

The next criteria I look at is the length of the campaign. Was the horse campaigned in the best races for the division that they were in throughtout the year?
Songbird. Yes.
Arrogate. Clearly no. As noted, he entered his first stakes race in late August. And he was in two races. And his connections passed on running post-Breeders Cup.

The final criteria for me is how a horse does outside of his division. Here the edge clearly goes to Arrogate, over Songbird. And this is why most people have him as not only champion three year old, but likely ahead of Songbird in the HOTY tally.

For me, I would have placed Tepin and Songbird ahead of Arrogate for HOTY because I place a great deal of emphasis on a year long campaign and Arrogate did not campaign until late August for two months of the year....that is not a campaign unless there are not any other worthy horses out there and there are.

In fact, I would even go so far to say that Beholder with 2 G1 wins had a stronger HOTY campaign than Arrogate did. She stepped out of her divison and did not win, but she ran very well. She competed in a much stronger division than Arrogate did. She face stronger competition in multiple races when that compeition was at their best. Arrogate's best 3 year old competition in Travers was not at their best at all. They finished up the track.

I love Arrogate and believe he is a truly special race horse. But his connections went slow with him. They should be rewarded for that and the are with the horse's health and fitness and ability to compete at such a high level. But Arrogate did not have a HOTY campaign.

While there is no set criteria for HOTY, I have never seen it as horse of the best race or an award for the best horse. I have always seen it as the horse that delivered the best campaign on the track during the year in North America. This is why I never agreed with Goldikova being 3rd in the balloting for HOTY in 2010.

The 2016 Eclipse Awards finalists (in alphabetical order) are:

Horse of the Year: Arrogate, California Chrome, Songbird
Two-Year-Old Male: Classic Empire, Not This Time  , Practical Joke
Two-Year-Old Filly: Champagne Room, Lady Aurelia, New Money Honey
Three-Year-Old Male: Arrogate, Exaggerator  , Nyquist   
Three-Year-Old Filly: Cathryn Sophia, Queen's Trust, Songbird
Older Dirt Male: California Chrome, Frosted  , Lord Nelson
Older Dirt Female: Beholder, Cavorting, Stellar Wind
Male Sprinter: A.P. Indian, Drefong, Lord Nelson
Female Sprinter: Finest City, Haveyougoneaway, Paulassilverlining
Male Turf Horse: Flintshire (GB), Highland Reel, Tourist 
Female Turf Horse: Lady Eli, Miss Temple City, Tepin
Steeplechase Horse: Rawnaq (IRE), Scorpiancer (IRE), Top Striker
Owner: Juddmonte Farms, Ken and Sarah Ramsey, Spendthrift Farm
Breeder: Clearsky Farms, Darley, WinStar Farm
Trainer: Bob Baffert, Chad Brown, Mark Casse
Jockey: Javier Castellano, Jose Ortiz, Mike Smith
Apprentice Jockey: Kevin Gomez, Lane Luzzi, Luis Ocasio

Surprises?

I did not see any. 

I actually think that Stanford's spot was not sold to Arrogate, but rather Coolmore made a shrewd move to unload their spot for the highest value knowing if they wanted to buy another spot from someone else by selling theirs to Arrogate they would likely be able to make a deal for the spot for much less than they received for Arrogate's spot. When it comes right down to it Coolmore might be able to get two spots for the price they received for Arrogate if they had the horses.

So no Stanford or Gun Runner.

Hmm.

I thought Sol Kumin and Exaggerator's people sold their spot.

And I thought Navarro was training War Story?

It should be exciting. Safe travels tomorrow big guy.

Lost a lot of really good ones. Unfortunately, always too many too soon.

Not good news. Too bad.

Hopefully Midnight Storm is pointed to the Pegasus as of now. Beautiful horse.

So realistically it looks like 11 possibles still:
Arrogate
California Chrome
Eragon
Gun Runner
Keen Ice
Midnight Storm
Neolithic
Semper Fortis
Shaman Ghost
Stanford
War Story

Hope they all line up.

And Arrogate is now confirmed to be pointing to the San Pasquale.

Should be interesteding to see what he does against a horse like Midnight Storm if he is indeed in the gate.