Thoroughbred Racing Fans

Some long shots in here.

1. Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini and Avaknowsthecode by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G3 Withers Stakes, February 13?
7th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs BSF 94

2. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 10
Next Race: G2 Holy Bull, January 30?
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 94
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

3.Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull and Lignum Vitae by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 8
Next Race: G3 Jerome Handicap, January 2?
2nd G3 Delta Downs Jackpot
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes
7th G3 Sanford Stakes, 7 furlongs

4. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 16
Next Race: G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, February 6?
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

5. Brody's Cause(Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Next Race: ?
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

6. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 30
Next Race: G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, December 19 or G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, February 6?
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

7. Swipe (Birdstone by Grindstone and Avalanche Lily by Grand Slam by Gone West by Mr. Prospector) 12
Next Race: G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, December 19?
2nd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile
2nd G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
2nd Del Mar Futurity, 7 furlongs
2nd G2 Best Pal Stakes, 6.5 furlongs

8. Annual Report (Harlan's Holiday by Harlan by Mr. Storm Cat and Pension by Seeking the Gold by Mr. Prospector)
Next Race: G2 Holy Bull?
5th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Belmont Futurity, 6 furlongs

9. Airoforce (Colonel John by Tiznow and Chocolate Pop by Cuvee by Carson City by Mr. Prospector) 10
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club BSF 87
2nd G1 Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Bourbon Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

10. Sail Ahoy (Bernardini and Matlacha Pass by Seeking the Gold)
Next Race: G3 Withers Stakes?
4th G2 Remsen Stakes
3rd G2 Nashua Stakes
4th G1 Champagne

11. Air Force Blue (War Front by Danzig and Chatham by Maria's Mon)
Next Race:
G1 Dewhurst Stakes, 7 furlongs
G1 Vincent O'Brien National Stakes, 7 furlongs
G1 Phoenix Stakes, 6 furlongs
2nd G2 Coventry Stakes, 6 furlongs

12. Arabian Leopard (Scat Daddy by Johannesberg by Hennessy and Antoinette by Silver Hawk by Roberto by Hail To Reason)
Next Race: G1 Los Alamitos Futurity?

On The Bubble: Morse Code (Tapit and Serena's Cat by Storm Cat),  Hoffenheim (Midnight Lute by Real Quiet and Circumstance by Vindication), ToewsOnIce (Archarcharch and Wild Forest Cat by D'Wildcat by Forest Wildcat),  Gehrig (Ghostzapper by Awesome Again and Captivating Cathy by Forest Wildcat by Storm Cat)

Its not too early to come up with your lists!

Tis the season.

It is too early for me... I'll make my list when the field draws in May 4th, 2016.
Kidding aside, I would find a list right now of horses trying to make the gate for a race on May 7 next year impossible to formulate right now.

Fair enough.

Had to find something to do to deal with the gulf left from Pharoah and Honor Code retiring. lol

Quote from: Man o Taz on December 03, 2015, 08:25:55 AM
Fair enough.

Had to find something to do to deal with the gulf left from Pharoah and Honor Code retiring. lol

Oh, I hear you. That's when I usually turn to one of my other hobbies to distract me...  ;)

After American Pharoah's triple crown, it's a let down already talking about the 2016 Derby. But it will be here before we know it.

And there are a lot of fun horses lining up.

Air Force Blue really has piqued my interest though I doubt he comes East.

1. Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini and Avaknowsthecode by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G3 Withers Stakes, February 13?
7th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs BSF 94

2. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 10
Next Race: G2 Holy Bull, January 30
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 94
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

3.Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull and Lignum Vitae by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 8
Next Race: G3 Jerome Handicap, January 2?
2nd G3 Delta Downs Jackpot
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes
7th G3 Sanford Stakes, 7 furlongs

4. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 16
Next Race: G2 San Vicente, February 15
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

5. Brody's Cause(Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Next Race: ?
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

6. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 30
Next Race: G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, February 6?, G1 Bluegrass Stakes, April 9?
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

7. Swipe (Birdstone by Grindstone and Avalanche Lily by Grand Slam by Gone West by Mr. Prospector) 12
Next Race: G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, December 19?
2nd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile
2nd G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
2nd Del Mar Futurity, 7 furlongs
2nd G2 Best Pal Stakes, 6.5 furlongs

8. Annual Report (Harlan's Holiday by Harlan by Mr. Storm Cat and Pension by Seeking the Gold by Mr. Prospector)
Next Race: G2 Holy Bull?
5th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Belmont Futurity, 6 furlongs

9. Airoforce (Colonel John by Tiznow and Chocolate Pop by Cuvee by Carson City by Mr. Prospector) 10
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club BSF 87
2nd G1 Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Bourbon Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

10. Sail Ahoy (Bernardini and Matlacha Pass by Seeking the Gold)
Next Race: G3 Withers Stakes?
4th G2 Remsen Stakes
3rd G2 Nashua Stakes
4th G1 Champagne

11. Air Force Blue (War Front by Danzig and Chatham by Maria's Mon)
Next Race:
G1 Dewhurst Stakes, 7 furlongs
G1 Vincent O'Brien National Stakes, 7 furlongs
G1 Phoenix Stakes, 6 furlongs
2nd G2 Coventry Stakes, 6 furlongs

12. Arabian Leopard (Scat Daddy by Johannesberg by Hennessy and Antoinette by Silver Hawk by Roberto by Hail To Reason)
Next Race: G1 Los Alamitos Futurity?

On The Bubble:
Morse Code (Tapit and Serena's Cat by Storm Cat)

Hoffenheim (Midnight Lute by Real Quiet and Circumstance by Vindication)

ToewsOnIce (Archarcharch and Wild Forest Cat by D'Wildcat by Forest Wildcat)
Next Race: G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, December 19

Gehrig (Ghostzapper by Awesome Again and Captivating Cathy by Forest Wildcat by Storm Cat)

Nyquist is dropped from 6 to 12 because I do not believe he will have developed enough of a foundation with a 7 and 9 furlong prep schedule. If this horse is distance challenged as many think, wouldn't a better approach be to rigorously condition him so that he is the most fit horse in the race? O'Neill did well with an 8.5 furlong prep and a 9 furlong prep with I'll Have Another so I do not know why the need to rethink it, but every horse is different so perhaps this is the best route for him. Training in Florida should help.

I also dropped Air Force Blue since the connections do not seem to be targeting him at all for the Derby.

Mor Spirit after his nice win in the Los Alamitos Futurity joins the list at 6.

1. Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini and Avaknowsthecode by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G2 Holy Bull Stakes, January 30
7th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs BSF 94

2. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 10
Next Race: G2 Holy Bull, January 30
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 94
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

3.Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull and Lignum Vitae by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 8
Next Race: G3 Withers Stakes, January 30
2nd G3 Delta Downs Jackpot
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes
7th G3 Sanford Stakes, 7 furlongs

4. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 16
Next Race: G2 San Vicente, February 15
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

5. Brody's Cause(Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Next Race: G2 Holy Bull/G3 Lecomte?
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

6. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway and I'm A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union by Dixleland Band 14
Next Race: Robert Lewis Stakes on February 6th, 8.5 furlongs.
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs.
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs.

7. Swipe (Birdstone by Grindstone and Avalanche Lily by Grand Slam by Gone West by Mr. Prospector) 12
Next Race: 
2nd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile
2nd G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
2nd Del Mar Futurity, 7 furlongs
2nd G2 Best Pal Stakes, 6.5 furlongs

8. Annual Report (Harlan's Holiday by Harlan by Mr. Storm Cat and Pension by Seeking the Gold by Mr. Prospector)
Next Race: G2 Holy Bull?
5th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Belmont Futurity, 6 furlongs

9. Airoforce (Colonel John by Tiznow and Chocolate Pop by Cuvee by Carson City by Mr. Prospector) 10
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club BSF 87
2nd G1 Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Bourbon Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

10. Sail Ahoy (Bernardini and Matlacha Pass by Seeking the Gold)
Next Race: G3 Withers Stakes?
4th G2 Remsen Stakes
3rd G2 Nashua Stakes
4th G1 Champagne

11. Arabian Leopard (Scat Daddy by Johannesberg by Hennessy and Antoinette by Silver Hawk by Roberto by Hail To Reason)
Next Race:
3rd Eddie Logan Stakes, 8 furlongs on the turf.

He came running late after a bad start, but the race was around 2 turns so I think he definitely wants more distance. We shall see if they keep him on the turf.  It was a shame that he started poorly since a stakes win on turf they might have been more comfortable bringing him back on dirt, but with the bad start they just may want to keep him on turf again. Who knows. I think he is talented.

12. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 30
Next Races: San Vicente Stakes, February 6, G1 Florida Derby, April 2
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

On The Bubble:
Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat and Santa Vindi by Vindication) 14

Morse Code (Tapit and Serena's Cat by Storm Cat)

Hoffenheim (Midnight Lute by Real Quiet and Circumstance by Vindication)
Next Race:

ToewsOnIce (Archarcharch and Wild Forest Cat by D'Wildcat by Forest Wildcat) 4
Next Race: G2 San Vicente, G2 Rebel Stakes?

Gehrig (Ghostzapper by Awesome Again and Captivating Cathy by Forest Wildcat by Storm Cat)
[/quote]
Next Race:

Well, here is a revised list.

1. Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini and Avaknowsthecode by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G2 Holy Bull Stakes, January 30
7th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs BSF 94

2. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 10
Next Race: G2 Holy Bull, January 30
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 94
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

3.Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull and Lignum Vitae by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 8
Next Race: G3 Withers Stakes, January 30
2nd G3 Delta Downs Jackpot
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes
7th G3 Sanford Stakes, 7 furlongs

4. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 16
Next Race: G2 San Vicente, February 15
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

5. Brody's Cause(Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Next Race: G2 Tampa Bay Derby/G1 Bluegrass Stakes
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

6. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway and I'm A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union by Dixleland Band 14
Next Race: Robert Lewis Stakes on February 6th, 8.5 furlongs.
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs.
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs.

7. Annual Report (Harlan's Holiday by Harlan by Mr. Storm Cat and Pension by Seeking the Gold by Mr. Prospector)
Next Race: ?
5th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Belmont Futurity, 6 furlongs

8. Airoforce (Colonel John by Tiznow and Chocolate Pop by Cuvee by Carson City by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: Rebel Stakes?
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club BSF 87
2nd G1 Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Bourbon Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

9. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 30
Next Races: San Vicente Stakes, February 6, G1 Florida Derby, April 2
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

10. Discreetness (Discreet Cat by Forestry by Storm Cat and Fondness by Elusive Quality by Gone West)
Next Race: G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Smarty Jones Stakes, 8 furlongs
Springboard Mile

11. Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat and Santa Vindi by Vindication) 14
Next Race: G3 Withers Stakes/G3 Gotham Stakes
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs

12. Drefong (Gio Ponti by Tale of the Cat and Eltimaas by Ghostzapper)
Next Race: G2 San Vincente, 7 furlongs

Shagaf (Bernardini and Muhaawara by Unbridled Song)
Next Race: Allowance at Gulfstream Park

On The Bubble:
Collected (Ciry Zip by Carson City and Helena by Johannesberg) 10
Next Race: ?
G3 Sham Stakes, 8 furlongs

Morse Code (Tapit and Serena's Cat by Storm Cat)

Gehrig (Ghostzapper by Awesome Again and Captivating Cathy by Forest Wildcat by Storm Cat)

Thanks = list is nicely done - we shall see how the dust settles this weekend!

Thanks.

Yes we will.

Two races with a lot on the line and some nice fields.

I hope Mohaymen and Greenpoint finish 1-2 close together to keep them at the top and that Sunny Ridge outduels Flexibility, Vorticity and Donegal Moon for a decisive wins after his two runner up stakes finishes.

 :rhrse:

Yes, Sunny Ridge!

Mohayman is beautiful and was impressive

And a nice win by Smokey Image - undefeated - I am adding him

That was a nice win by Smokey Image!

Quote from: Dusty on January 31, 2016, 08:13:25 PM
And a nice win by Smokey Image - undefeated - I am adding him

My only issue with him was who he beat in the California Cup, but I hope he is another California Chrome coming out of the race very strong. He is a beautiful colt.

Quote from: Dusty on January 30, 2016, 07:40:59 PM
Mohayman is beautiful and was impressive

Right.l He has the top BSF last year and this year in a Derby points race with a 95.

1. Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini and Avaknowsthecode by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector) 14
Trainer: Dominick Schettino
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth? 
2nd, G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs
7th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs BSF 94

2. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 20
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

3.Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull and Lignum Vitae by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 18
Next Race: G3 Gotham Stakes or G1 Wood Memorial
Trainer: Jason Servis
G3 Withers Stakes, BSF 87
2nd G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs
7th G3 Sanford Stakes, 7 furlongs

4. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 16
Next Race: G2 San Vicente, February 15
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

5. Brody's Cause(Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Next Race: G2 Tampa Bay Derby/G1 Bluegrass Stakes
Trainer: Dale Romans
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

6. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway and I'm A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union by Dixleland Band 14
Next Race: Robert Lewis Stakes on February 6th, 8.5 furlongs.
Trainer: Bob Baffert
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs.
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs.

7. Airoforce (Colonel John by Tiznow and Chocolate Pop by Cuvee by Carson City by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: ?
Trainer: Mark Casse
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club BSF 87
2nd G1 Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Bourbon Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

8. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 30
Next Races: San Vicente Stakes, February 15, G1 Florida Derby, April 2
Trainer: Doug O' Neill
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
G1 Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

9. Discreetness (Discreet Cat by Forestry by Storm Cat and Fondness by Elusive Quality by Gone West) 10
Next Race: G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Jinx Fires
Smarty Jones Stakes, 8 furlongs
Springboard Mile

10. Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat and Santa Vindi by Vindication) 15
Next Race: G3 Withers Stakes/G3 Gotham Stakes
Trainer: Chad Brown
4th G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs

11. Collected (Ciry Zip by Carson City and Helena by Johannesberg) 10
Next Race: G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs.
Trainer: Bob Baffert
G3 Sham Stakes, 8 furlongs

12. Drefong (Gio Ponti by Tale of the Cat and Eltimaas by Ghostzapper)
Next Race: G2 San Vincente, 7 furlongs
Trainer: Bob Baffert

Shagaf (Bernardini and Muhaawara by Unbridled Song)
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth/G2 Tampa Bay Derby/G3 Gotham Stakes
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

On The Bubble:
Annual Report (Harlan's Holiday by Harlan by Mr. Storm Cat and Pension by Seeking the Gold by Mr. Prospector)
Next Race: ?
5th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Belmont Futurity, 6 furlongs

Gehrig (Ghostzapper by Awesome Again and Captivating Cathy by Forest Wildcat by Storm Cat)
Next Race:?
Trainer: Bruce Levine

Gift Box (Twirling Candy by Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano and Special Me by Unbridled Song) 2
Next Race: G3 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Chad Brown

Zulu (Bernardini and Temporada by Summer Squall by Storm Bird)
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth
Trainer: Todd Pletcher

1. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 20
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

2.Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull and Lignum Vitae by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 18
Next Race: G3 Gotham Stakes or G1 Wood Memorial
Trainer: Jason Servis
G3 Withers Stakes, BSF 87
2nd G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs
7th G3 Sanford Stakes, 7 furlongs

3. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 16
Next Race: G2 San Vicente, February 15
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

4. Brody's Cause(Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Next Race: G2 Tampa Bay Derby/G1 Bluegrass Stakes
Trainer: Dale Romans
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

5. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway and I'm A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band 24
Next Race: Robert Lewis Stakes on February 6th, 8.5 furlongs.
Trainer: Bob Baffert
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 92
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 88
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs.

6. Airoforce (Colonel John by Tiznow and Chocolate Pop by Cuvee by Carson City by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: ?
Trainer: Mark Casse
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club BSF 87
2nd G1 Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Bourbon Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

7. Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini and Avaknowsthecode by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector) 14
Trainer: Dominick Schettino
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd, G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs
7th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs BSF 94

8. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 30
Next Races: San Vicente Stakes, February 15, G1 Florida Derby, April 2
Trainer: Doug O' Neill
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
G1 Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

9. Discreetness (Discreet Cat by Forestry by Storm Cat and Fondness by Elusive Quality by Gone West) 10
Next Race: G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Jinx Fires
Smarty Jones Stakes, 8 furlongs
Springboard Mile

10. Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat and Santa Vindi by Vindication) 15
Next Race: G3 Withers Stakes/G3 Gotham Stakes
Trainer: Chad Brown
4th G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs

11. Collected (Ciry Zip by Carson City and Helena by Johannesberg) 10
Next Race: G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs.
Trainer: Bob Baffert
G3 Sham Stakes, 8 furlongs

12. Shagaf (Bernardini and Muhaawara by Unbridled Song)
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth/G2 Tampa Bay Derby/G3 Gotham Stakes
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

On The Bubble:
Annual Report (Harlan's Holiday by Harlan by Mr. Storm Cat and Pension by Seeking the Gold by Mr. Prospector)
Next Race: ?
5th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Belmont Futurity, 6 furlongs

Drefong (Gio Ponti by Tale of the Cat and Eltimaas by Ghostzapper)
Next Race: G2 San Vincente, 7 furlongs
Trainer: Bob Baffert

Gehrig (Ghostzapper by Awesome Again and Captivating Cathy by Forest Wildcat by Storm Cat)
Next Race:?
Trainer: Bruce Levine

Gift Box (Twirling Candy by Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano and Special Me by Unbridled Song) 2
Next Race: G3 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Chad Brown

Zulu (Bernardini and Temporada by Summer Squall by Storm Bird)
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth
Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Oh - Thank you - well done - I may disagree with the placings but your layout is SUPERB!

Right now, early on, Mohaymen sure looks the part. My only question is whether he continues to look the part when the distances increase.

Brody's Cause is targeting the Tampa Bay Derby as his comeback, so we'll see where he stands.
As an early long shot I'm liking Synchrony. I also like Awesome Speed a bit... I think he takes on Mohaymen next.

Thanks Dusty.

I think you are right peeptoad.

I have always been skeptical of the Tapit's getting 10-12 furlongs.

I know they have done it, but it is the bottom that has really helped them.

Frosted just did through Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister
Tonalist - through Pleasant Colony

Looking at Mohaymen on the bottom he had Dixie Union. Now, Union Rags did win the Belmont Stakes, but Dixie Union was on top. On the bottom was Gone West who did sire  Belmont Stakes winner Commendable. So you are right to think that Mohaymen could be suspect on the bottom. Of course, they said the same about American Pharoah on the bottom, but his bloodline on top had a Belmont Stakes winner. Sometimes the stallion influences on top can in American Pharoah's case be helpful. Or the stamina influence perhaps can come from further back in the female family as Steve Haskin has opined. In that case, Northern Dancer through Dixieland Band could be the ticket. It will be interesting to see.

Quote from: Man o Taz on February 11, 2016, 09:21:19 AM
Thanks Dusty.

I think you are right peeptoad.

I have always been skeptical of the Tapit's getting 10-12 furlongs.

I know they have done it, but it is the bottom that has really helped them.

Frosted just did through Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister
Tonalist - through Pleasant Colony

Looking at Mohaymen on the bottom he had Dixie Union. Now, Union Rags did win the Belmont Stakes, but Dixie Union was on top. On the bottom was Gone West who did sire  Belmont Stakes winner Commendable. So you are right to think that Mohaymen could be suspect on the bottom. Of course, they said the same about American Pharoah on the bottom, but his bloodline on top had a Belmont Stakes winner. Sometimes the stallion influences on top can in American Pharoah's case be helpful. Or the stamina influence perhaps can come from further back in the female family as Steve Haskin has opined. In that case, Northern Dancer through Dixieland Band could be the ticket. It will be interesting to see.

I would have to disagree if your arguing that Gone West is a stamina influence based on Commendable winning the Belmont.  Commendable was a miler who was let loose on the lead that day.  He rated nicely--had a HOF trainer--and got the distance, at least better than his competitors.  I wouldn't blindly jump on any offspring of Union Rags or Palace Malice either as they only got 12f better than their competitors in their Belmonts.  Pedigree is fun to look at and if you go back far enough all horses will have stamina influences.  Sometimes if you want to see something you'll see it, often times though not until after the fact.  It's ironic that Haskin would cite Northern Dancer.  When Northern Dancer lost the Belmont thus thwarting his Triple Crown bid, the reason stated was that he couldn't get 12f.  Of course, I'm not saying he isn't a stamina influence.  No one knew that though until his offspring proved they could stay. 

I remember back in the '80's in so. CA there were these two full brothers--The Big T and Amanotherbrother.  Both were big long striding horses who were allowance types early on and then went down the ladder.  The Big T needed at least 8.5f to show his best stuff.  Amanotherbrother was specialist at 6.5f down the hill at Santa Anita but he could be effective at up to 8.5f.  If you spit on the track in front of The Big T he wouldn't try at all--he just hated mud.  He also was not real fond of winning.  Amanotherbrother, on the other hand, was a win machine who was one of the best off track horses I've ever seen.  We had a trainer there at the time named Johnny Bucalo.  He trained an inordinate amount of off track specialists.  Back then, they would be designated in the DRF with either an *--likes mud-- X--loves mud or a circled X--which meant a superior mudder.  It was pretty rare for a horse to get the superior mud mark but Bucalo had one named Brass and as already stated he had others in his barn which carried the lesser marks next to their names.   One day a horseman went up to Bucalo and asked him what his secret was with mudders.  He said he was a little busy but if he came back after training he's share his knowledge.  So a few hours later, that horseman and several others came to Bucalo as if he were an equestrian Obi-Wan Kenobi.  Bucalo said, "Well...you see, after it rains, I take 'em out and see if they can run in it, if they can then I know they like mud."

That is a priceless story.

I thought I suggested it was right to suspect Mohaymen on the top and the bottom.

Gone West did produce Commendable, but I am not familiar with any other major stakes winning horses at 10-12 furlongs he sired. And you are right - if you go back far enough you usually get there with them all.

1. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 20
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

2.Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull and Lignum Vitae by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 18
Next Race: G3 Gotham Stakes or G1 Wood Memorial
Trainer: Jason Servis
G3 Withers Stakes, BSF 87
2nd G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs
7th G3 Sanford Stakes, 7 furlongs

3. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 16
Next Race: G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

4. Brody's Cause(Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Next Race: G2 Tampa Bay Derby/G1 Bluegrass Stakes
Trainer: Dale Romans
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

5. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway and I'm A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band 24
Next Race: G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Bob Baffert
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 92
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 88
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs.

6. Airoforce (Colonel John by Tiznow and Chocolate Pop by Cuvee by Carson City by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: ?
Trainer: Mark Casse
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club BSF 87
2nd G1 Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Bourbon Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

7. Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini and Avaknowsthecode by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector) 14
Trainer: Dominick Schettino
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd, G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs
7th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs BSF 94

8. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 30
Next Races: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, April 2
Trainer: Doug O' Neill
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
G1 Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

9. Suddenbreakningnews (Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Uchitel by Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet by Afleet by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Donnie Van Hemmel
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 93

10. Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat and Santa Vindi by Vindication) 15
Next Race: G3 Gotham Stakes
Trainer: Chad Brown
4th G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs

11. Shagaf (Bernardini and Muhaawara by Unbridled Song)
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth/G2 Tampa Bay Derby/G3 Gotham Stakes
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

12.Discreetness (Discreet Cat by Forestry by Storm Cat and Fondness by Elusive Quality by Gone West) 10
Next Race: G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Jinx Fires
7th G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Smarty Jones Stakes, 8 furlongs BSF 83
Springboard Mile

On The Bubble:
Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot and Melody's Spirit by Scat Daddy by Johannesberg by Hennessy by Storm Cat) (4)
Trainer: Ronald Moquet
2nd G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

Gehrig (Ghostzapper by Awesome Again and Captivating Cathy by Forest Wildcat by Storm Cat)
Next Race:?
Trainer: Bruce Levine

Gift Box (Twirling Candy by Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano and Special Me by Unbridled Song) 2
Next Race: G3 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Chad Brown

Zulu (Bernardini and Temporada by Summer Squall by Storm Bird)
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth
Trainer: Todd Pletcher

1. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 70
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

2.Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull and Lignum Vitae by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 18
Next Race: G3 Gotham Stakes or G1 Wood Memorial
Trainer: Jason Servis
G3 Withers Stakes, BSF 87
2nd G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs
7th G3 Sanford Stakes, 7 furlongs

3. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 16
Next Race: G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

4. Brody's Cause(Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Next Race: G2 Tampa Bay Derby/G1 Bluegrass Stakes
Trainer: Dale Romans
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

5. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway and I'm A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band 24
Next Race: G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Bob Baffert
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 92
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 88
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs.

6. Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini and Avaknowsthecode by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector) 14
Trainer: Dominick Schettino
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd, G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs
7th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs BSF 94

7. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 30
Next Races: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, April 2
Trainer: Doug O' Neill
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
G1 Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

8. Suddenbreakningnews (Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Uchitel by Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet by Afleet by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Donnie Van Hemmel
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 93

9. Gun Runner (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails, by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Quiet Giant by Giant's Causeway) 51
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

10. Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat and Santa Vindi by Vindication) 15
Next Race: G3 Gotham Stakes
Trainer: Chad Brown
4th G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs

11. Shagaf (Bernardini and Muhaawara by Unbridled Song)
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth/G2 Tampa Bay Derby/G3 Gotham Stakes
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

12.Discreetness (Discreet Cat by Forestry by Storm Cat and Fondness by Elusive Quality by Gone West) 10
Next Race: G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Jinx Fires
7th G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Smarty Jones Stakes, 8 furlongs BSF 83
Springboard Mile

Zulu (Bernardini and Temporada by Summer Squall by Storm Bird) 20
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
2nd G2 Fountain of Youth

On The Bubble:
Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot and Melody's Spirit by Scat Daddy by Johannesberg by Hennessy by Storm Cat) (4)
Trainer: Ronald Moquet
2nd G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

Gift Box (Twirling Candy by Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano and Special Me by Unbridled Song) 2
Next Race: G3 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Chad Brown

Airoforce (Colonel John by Tiznow and Chocolate Pop by Cuvee by Carson City by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G3 Spiral Stakes, 9 furlongs?
6th G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Mark Casse
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club BSF 87
2nd G1 Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Bourbon Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

1. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 70
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

2. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 16
Next Race: G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

3. Brody's Cause(Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Next Race: G2 Tampa Bay Derby/G1 Bluegrass Stakes
Trainer: Dale Romans
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

4. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway and I'm A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band 24
Next Race: G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Bob Baffert
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 92
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 88
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs.

5. . Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini and Avaknowsthecode by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector) 14
Trainer: Dominick Schettino
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd, G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs
7th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs BSF 94

6. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 30
Next Races: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, April 2
Trainer: Doug O' Neill
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
G1 Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

7. Suddenbreakningnews (Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Uchitel by Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet by Afleet by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Donnie Van Hemmel
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 93

8. Gun Runner (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails, by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Quiet Giant by Giant's Causeway) 51
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

9. Shagaf (Bernardini and Muhaawara by Unbridled Song) 50
Next Race: G2 Fountain of Youth/G2 Tampa Bay Derby/G3 Gotham Stakes
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 87

10. Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat and Santa Vindi by Vindication) 15
Next Race: G3 Gotham Stakes
Trainer: Chad Brown
4th G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs

11.Discreetness (Discreet Cat by Forestry by Storm Cat and Fondness by Elusive Quality by Gone West) 10
Next Race: G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Jinx Fires
7th G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Smarty Jones Stakes, 8 furlongs BSF 83
Springboard Mile

12. Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull and Lignum Vitae by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 23
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Jason Servis
G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Withers Stakes, BSF 87
2nd G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs
7th G3 Sanford Stakes, 7 furlongs

Zulu (Bernardini and Temporada by Summer Squall by Storm Bird) 20
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
2nd G2 Fountain of Youth

On The Bubble:
Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot and Melody's Spirit by Scat Daddy by Johannesberg by Hennessy by Storm Cat) (4)
Trainer: Ronald Moquet
2nd G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

Gift Box (Twirling Candy by Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano and Special Me by Unbridled Song) 2
Next Race: G3 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Chad Brown

Airoforce (Colonel John by Tiznow and Chocolate Pop by Cuvee by Carson City by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G3 Spiral Stakes, 9 furlongs?
6th G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Mark Casse
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club BSF 87
2nd G1 Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Bourbon Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

Shake up coming??? I cam hardly wait !

Quote from: Dusty on March 12, 2016, 11:30:24 PM
Shake up coming??? I cam hardly wait !

Not as much as you might think. :)

Once I choose my horses I stick with them for better or worse pretty much.

Mohaymen has done nothing wrong. Some suggest that his speed figures have not improved and that he is running the same race over and over again, but there has been consensus that his competition has been getting stronger in each race, and he has been defeating that competition from 1 to 3 lengths in his last 3 races.

Exaggerator I thought was taken wide by Smokey Image. I think he is still a quality horse and better than Mor Spirit.

And I am not sold on Destin or Danzing Candy yet. I love the Candy Rides, but I need to see more from him.

1. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 70
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

2. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 26
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
3rd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

3. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway and I'm A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band 44
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Bob Baffert
2nd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 92
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 88
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs.

4. . Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini and Avaknowsthecode by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector) 14
Trainer: Dominick Schettino
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd, G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs
7th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs BSF 94

5. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 30
Next Races: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, April 2
Trainer: Doug O' Neill
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
G1 Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

6. Suddenbreakningnews (Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Uchitel by Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet by Afleet by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Donnie Van Hemmel
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 93

7. Gun Runner (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails, by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Quiet Giant by Giant's Causeway) 51
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

8. Shagaf (Bernardini and Muhaawara by Unbridled Song) 50
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 87

9. Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat and Santa Vindi by Vindication) 15
Next Race: G3 Gotham Stakes
Trainer: Chad Brown
4th G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs

10. Brody's Cause(Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Next Race: G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Dale Romans
7th G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

11.Discreetness (Discreet Cat by Forestry by Storm Cat and Fondness by Elusive Quality by Gone West) 10
Next Race: G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Jinx Fires
7th G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Smarty Jones Stakes, 8 furlongs BSF 83
Springboard Mile

12. Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull and Lignum Vitae by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 23
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Jason Servis
G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Withers Stakes, BSF 87
2nd G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs
7th G3 Sanford Stakes, 7 furlongs

Zulu (Bernardini and Temporada by Summer Squall by Storm Bird) 20
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
2nd G2 Fountain of Youth

On The Bubble:
Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot and Melody's Spirit by Scat Daddy by Johannesberg by Hennessy by Storm Cat) (4)
Trainer: Ronald Moquet
2nd G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

Gift Box (Twirling Candy by Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano and Special Me by Unbridled Song) 2
Next Race: G3 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Chad Brown

Airoforce (Colonel John by Tiznow and Chocolate Pop by Cuvee by Carson City by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G3 Spiral Stakes, 9 furlongs?
6th G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Mark Casse
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club BSF 87
2nd G1 Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Bourbon Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

There should be a shake up this weekend.

Suddenbreakingnews, Whitmore and Discreetness will be racing in the Rebel.

Is Sudden for real? Can Discreetness rebound from his lackluster effort in the Southwest? Is Whitmore the real star of that race? Or is it Cupid, the Baffert shipper?

We shall see. At least two of these horses will likely be coming off my list after this race, especially if Cupid finishes well. The margin for error is shrinking.

Zulu is also a question mark since he has not worked in over 3 weeks now. The FOY was a tough race for him and it seems to have taken a lot out of him. This will give him 1 work probably at most heading into the Florida Derby. As a result, it looks like he may be heading north for the Wood, if not the Arkansas Derby, or he could be off the Derby trail altogether. 

Now it is time for reckoning.

Discreetness had his chance and just did not fire. I do not know if its the talent or the distance or both.

The race did not set up for Suddenbreakinnews. I'll give him one more chance.

Zulu turned in his first work since the Fountain of Youth with 4 furlongs in almost 51. I cannot see him being ready to go in the Florida Derby. I think he probably needs some more time. Maybe the Arkansas Derby. 3 weeks out from the Fountain of Youth he turned in a 49.60 work so this 50.98 seems out of character. This was 2 weeks out from the Florida Derby. I am going to drop him temporarily if he gets pointed elsewhere he will jump back on.

1. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 70
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, April 2
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

2. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 26
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
3rd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

3. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway and I'm A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band) 44
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Bob Baffert
2nd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 92
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 88
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs.

4. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 30
Next Races: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, April 2
Trainer: Doug O' Neill
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
G1 Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

5. Gun Runner (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails, by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Quiet Giant by Giant's Causeway) 51
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs, March 26
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 90
4th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs

6. . Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini and Avaknowsthecode by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector) 14
Trainer: Dominick Schettino
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs, March 26
2nd, G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs
7th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs BSF 94

7. Cupid (Tapit and Pretty n Smart by Beau Genius by Bold Ruckus by Boldnesian) 50
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Bob Baffert
G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95

8. Shagaf (Bernardini and Muhaawara by Unbridled Song) 50
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 87

9. Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat and Santa Vindi by Vindication) 15
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial/Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs?
Trainer: Chad Brown
4th G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs

10. Brody's Cause(Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Next Race: G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Dale Romans
7th G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

11. Suddenbreakningnews (Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Uchitel by Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet by Afleet by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Donnie Van Hemmel
5th G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 93

12. [Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot and Melody's Spirit by Scat Daddy by Johannesberg by Hennessy by Storm Cat) 24
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Ronald Moquet
2nd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull and Lignum Vitae by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 23
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Jason Servis
G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Withers Stakes, BSF 87
2nd G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs
7th G3 Sanford Stakes, 7 furlongs

On The Bubble:

Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy by Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance and Talkin and Talkin and Singing by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 50
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Clifford Sise, Jr.
G2 San Felipe, 9 furlongs BSF 100

Destin (Giant's Causeway and Dream of Summer by Siberian Summer by Siberian Express by Caro) 50
Next Race: G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs?
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs BSF 100
G3 Sam F. Davis, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Lecomte, 8 furlongs

Airoforce (Colonel John by Tiznow and Chocolate Pop by Cuvee by Carson City by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G3 Spiral Stakes, 9 furlongs
6th G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Mark Casse
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club BSF 87
2nd G1 Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Bourbon Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

Zulu (Bernardini and Temporada by Summer Squall by Storm Bird) 20
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
2nd G2 Fountain of Youth

I love your lists - may shuffle a few and .... well - I thank you for taking the time to do this! :thumbsup:

Not buying Destin yet, huh? Neither is Mike Watchmaker.
I'm eager to see how he runs at a track that's not Tampa, but that's really my only question right at the moment.

Of course the quality jump as the final preps loom is a question ascwell, but they pretty much all have that to answer.

Thanks Dusty. Who is in your top 10 or 12. You would probably have a better list than mine because I hold on to them too long.

Disappointed that Sunny Ridge will not make the Wood Memorial, but glad to see his connections are doing right by him.

He was always targeting the Preakness so even though I liked him as a Derby prospect I knew he was a long shot. I just hoped that this son of Holy Bull might be his Derby winner. I also wonder if he is from Holy Bull's last crop. Has to be close.

peeptoad - Destin is a very talented horse. But his Lecomte run was weird. So is he a product of liking Tampa, or is he something more? I think he is something more, but will wait to see. It could be a nice field for the Bluegrass Stakes with Destin and Brody's Cause targeting the race. 

:OMG:

Anyone want to add Lani into their top 10? I thought the Dubai Derby looked like mostly tired horses with Lani getting there by default.

I do like his breeding however - Tapit out of a Sunday Silence mare.

Next weekend will signal a big reshuffle in the top 10's and 12's - with Nyquist and Moyahmen meeting in the FL Derby.   

I would agree with that. I think I read somewhere that Randy Moss computed his Beyer for the race and came up with an 87.

I actually do not expect much of a shuffle.

I expect Nyquist to lose. If he wins there will be a reshuffle, but if he loses he will probably stay at 4 given that I think that he has the 4th best chance of winning the Kentucky Derby given his unique campaign.

Greenpointcrusader is gone. This is really a shame because I believe in the talent of this colt. I just do not understand the campaign for him taking him out of Florida where he was competitive on a surface with the top Derby prospect, Mohaymen, and instead of sending him back to NY where he is also comfortable, we ship him to the Fairgrounds for the Louisiana Derby. I wonder if he goes in the Arkansas Derby.

Other than that, everyone moves up. No big moves. Danzing Candy join the list over Destin because I like his breeding better.

1. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 70
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, April 2
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

2. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 26
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
3rd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

3. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway and I'm A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band) 44
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Bob Baffert
2nd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 92
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 88
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs.

4. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 30
Next Races: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, April 2
Trainer: Doug O' Neill
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
G1 Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

5. Gun Runner (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails, by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Quiet Giant by Giant's Causeway) 51
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs, March 26
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 90
4th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs

6. Cupid (Tapit and Pretty n Smart by Beau Genius by Bold Ruckus by Boldnesian) 50
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Bob Baffert
G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95

7. Shagaf (Bernardini and Muhaawara by Unbridled Song) 50
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 87

8. Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat and Santa Vindi by Vindication) 15
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial/Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs?
Trainer: Chad Brown
4th G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs

9. Brody's Cause(Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Next Race: G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Dale Romans
7th G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

10. Suddenbreakningnews (Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Uchitel by Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet by Afleet by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Donnie Van Hemmel
5th G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 93

11. [Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot and Melody's Spirit by Scat Daddy by Johannesberg by Hennessy by Storm Cat) 24
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Ronald Moquet
2nd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

12. Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy by Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance and Talkin and Talkin and Singing by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 50
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Clifford Sise, Jr.
G2 San Felipe, 9 furlongs BSF 100

On The Bubble:

Destin (Giant's Causeway and Dream of Summer by Siberian Summer by Siberian Express by Caro) 50
Next Race: G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs?
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs BSF 100
G3 Sam F. Davis, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Lecomte, 8 furlongs

Airoforce (Colonel John by Tiznow and Chocolate Pop by Cuvee by Carson City by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G3 Spiral Stakes, 9 furlongs
6th G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Mark Casse
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club BSF 87
2nd G1 Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Bourbon Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

Zulu (Bernardini and Temporada by Summer Squall by Storm Bird) 20
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
2nd G2 Fountain of Youth

SHAKE EM UP!!!! Wow... I must admit I was surprised by how easily Nyquist won = BIG disappointment in Aeroforce...

Quote from: Dusty on April 02, 2016, 05:56:52 PM
SHAKE EM UP!!!! Wow... I must admit I was surprised by how easily Nyquist won = BIG disappointment in Aeroforce...

I am glad Aeroforce got his chance on a fair track to prove whether he had the quality to compete on dirt. He does not. It is a shame, but now we know for certain. No second guessing now.

I am still skeptical of Nyquist getting 10 furlongs. A 94 BSF is not great. Perhaps the Florida track is more tiring than people realize.

1. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway and I'm A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band) 44
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Bob Baffert
2nd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 92
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 88
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs.

2. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 80
Next Race: Kentucky Derby
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
4th G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

3. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 130
Next Races: Kentucky Derby
Trainer: Doug O' Neill
G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, BSF 94
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
G1 Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

4. Cupid (Tapit and Pretty n Smart by Beau Genius by Bold Ruckus by Boldnesian) 50
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Bob Baffert
G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95

5. Gun Runner (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails, by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Quiet Giant by Giant's Causeway) 51
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs, March 26
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 90
4th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs

6. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 26
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
3rd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

7. Shagaf (Bernardini and Muhaawara by Unbridled Song) 50
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 87

8. Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat and Santa Vindi by Vindication) 15
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial/Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs?
Trainer: Chad Brown
4th G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs

9. Brody's Cause(Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Next Race: G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Dale Romans
7th G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

10. Suddenbreakningnews (Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Uchitel by Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet by Afleet by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Donnie Van Hemmel
5th G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 93

11. Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot and Melody's Spirit by Scat Daddy by Johannesberg by Hennessy by Storm Cat) 24
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Ronald Moquet
2nd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

12. Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy by Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance and Talkin and Talkin and Singing by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 50
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Clifford Sise, Jr.
G2 San Felipe, 9 furlongs BSF 100

Well, I was impressed with Outwork's win in the Wood. I thought he had nothing his own way and still one the race, possibly bouncing off his Tampa Bay Derby performance where he lost by a length.

1. Outwork (Uncle Mo and Nonna Mia by Empire Maker) 120
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs BSF 93
2nd Tampa Bay Derby, BSF 100

2. Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Trainer: Dale Romans
G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs
7th G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs BSF 91
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

3. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway and I'm A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band) 44
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Bob Baffert
2nd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 92
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 88
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs.

4. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 130
Next Races: Kentucky Derby
Trainer: Doug O' Neill
G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, BSF 94
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
G1 Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

5. Cupid (Tapit and Pretty n Smart by Beau Genius by Bold Ruckus by Boldnesian) 50
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Bob Baffert
G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95

6. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 126
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs BSF 103
3rd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

7. Gun Runner (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails, by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Quiet Giant by Giant's Causeway) 51
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs BSF 91
G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 90
4th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs

8. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 80
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
4th G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

9. Shagaf (Bernardini and Muhaawara by Unbridled Song) 50
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
5th G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 87

10. Suddenbreakningnews (Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Uchitel by Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet by Afleet by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Donnie Van Hemmel
5th G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 93

11. Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot and Melody's Spirit by Scat Daddy by Johannesberg by Hennessy by Storm Cat) 24
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Ronald Moquet
2nd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

12. Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy by Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance and Talkin and Talkin and Singing by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 50
Trainer: Clifford Sise, Jr.
4th G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 San Felipe, 9 furlongs BSF 100

My Man Sam (Trappe Shot by Tapit and Lauren Byrd by Arch) 40
Trainer: Chad Brown
2nd G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs 

ANTICIPATION for the finale! :happy:

Creator, Creator, Creator. Screwing up my picks. LOL 

This is tough.

Outwork stays tops. I thought he had two strong performances and I am counting on him having won the Wood Memorial when he was not at his best as incentive to say he can move forward and improve next out at the Kentucky Derby.

Brody's Cause is looking stronger to me too after I rewatched last week's races.

I flip-flopped Exaggerator and Mor Spirit. Mor Spirit's experience on an off track in the Kentucky Jockey Club I think he should have done better in the Santa Anita Derby. The more I look at Exaggertaor's run the more I like it.

Nyquist stays 4th. He would be a solid number one is he had had two routes like I'll Have Another did. This is a tough race for anyone who is going to beat him.

I had to add Creator since he is bred nicely and he did run well coming strong at the end. It seems there is a nice balance of closing horses and front runners in this year's edition of the Kentucky Derby which could make for a very exciting race.

I could not move up Mohaymen over Gun Runner. Gun Runner finished up strong. But Mohaymen's final 3 furlongs in the Remsen I believe is still the fastest final 3 furlongs in a 9 furlong race this year by three year old males. The question is whether he can deliver his best based upon the finish in the Florida Derby.

Suddenbreakingnews moves up. He flew for 2nd and really closed nicely. Shagaf moves down. And Danzing Candy moves down since I think he may have some distance issues in addition to not liking an off track.

Whitmore and Cupid are gone. I just could not see keeping Cupid on with a 10th place performance. Mohaymen finished some 8 lengths or so back and I have him, but I know Cupid got caught up in a speed duel, but to have nothing at all left does not bode well for the Kentucky Derby. I just have no idea was the jockey was thinking with those early fractions. When I heard 22 and change I said the race is over for him. Whitmore finished 3rd. He will be in the Derby. But I think he may be a Keen Ice type in that he needs the perfect set up to win so I cannot have him in my list because my list is not about where I think they might finish, but who I think will win.

We shall see if it stays this way.

1. Outwork (Uncle Mo and Nonna Mia by Empire Maker) 120
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs BSF 93
2nd Tampa Bay Derby, BSF 100

2. Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway and Sweet Breanna by Saham by Mr. Prospector) 14
Trainer: Dale Romans
G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs
7th G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs BSF 91
3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile
G1 Breeders Futurity BSF 88

3. Exaggerator (Curlin and Dawn Raid by Vindication by Seattle Slew) 126
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs BSF 103
3rd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs BSF 92
4th G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs
4th G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
2nd G2 Saratoga Special, 6.5 furlongs

4. Nyquist (Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry by Storm Cat) 130
Next Races: Kentucky Derby
Trainer: Doug O' Neill
G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs, BSF 94
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile BSF 89
G1 Frontrunner Stakes BSF 79
G1 Del Mar Futurity
G2 Best Pal Stakes

5. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway and I'm A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band) 44
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, April 9
Trainer: Bob Baffert
2nd G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 92
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs. BSF 88
2nd G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs.

6. Creator (Tapit and Morena by Privately Held) 110
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs 93
3rd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

7. Gun Runner (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails, by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Quiet Giant by Giant's Causeway) 51
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs BSF 91
G3 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 90
4th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs

8. Mohaymen (Tapit and Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer) 80
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
4th G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs BSF 95
G2 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs

9. Suddenbreakningnews (Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Uchitel by Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet by Afleet by Mr. Prospector) 10
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs, April 16
Trainer: Donnie Van Hemmel
5th G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 93

10. My Man Sam (Trappe Shot by Tapit and Lauren Byrd by Arch) 40
Trainer: Chad Brown
2nd G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs

11. Shagaf (Bernardini and Muhaawara by Unbridled Song) 50
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
5th G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs BSF 87

12. Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy by Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance and Talkin and Talkin and Singing by Songandaprayer by Unbridled Song) 50
Trainer: Clifford Sise, Jr.
4th G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 San Felipe, 9 furlongs BSF 100

Good luck with Outwork, I wouldn't bet him with your money but then again the sport is based on disagreements.

Cupid flipped his palate, which is why he quit so badly.  Usually when a horse drops away lake that it's either that or they bled.  I'm not saying had he been healthy he wins, as 22 and change is pretty fast, but the flipped palate explains a lot.  He'll have tie-back surgery and Baffert can run him in the Preakness if all goes well.

The only type of track I'll give a horse a pass on is an off track.  Some horses can get ahold of any type of off going--like Exaggerator--and it won't hinder their performance and others can get ahold of one but not another.  So in essence, Exaggerator doesn't move up on an off track but others move back.  The way Mor Spirit strides, I have no doubt he didn't like the track on Santa Anita Derby Day.  I don't like him any less--unless of course the track is slippery on Derby Day--than I did before.  My concern with him has always been his lack of a real turn of foot which may mean he either has to get very lucky or go very wide.

I still haven't seen anyone who I like more than Nyquist.  Since Doug O'Neil has trained more Derby winners than me, his preparation doesn't bother me a bit.  I don't care for his jockey but he has also ridden more Derby winners than I have.  I like Mor Spirit, Exaggerator and Mohaymen to find their way into the Super, perhaps.  Nothing else, save for Danzig Candy's brilliant turn of foot has impressed me.  My list is shorter, I guess.  If Nyquist draws the rail of course, my selections will be altered, but thus far this is my story and I'm sticking to it.

Holy moley - I need to take the list in ,,,,,wow not what I was expecting

Thanks.

I know I will need some luck with Outwork.

He is still very green but talented.

Nyquist is the veteran.

He has done it all so far. I just really cannot see that he will have the bottom to get 10 furlongs with a sprint and a route. But if he wins I will not be surprised at all because he has so far shown himself the most talented of this crop.

Thanks for the heads up on Cupid. He is out of the Derby so certainly off any lists.

Best of luck to everyone.

I think you will need some luck with Outwork, but he is not as far-fetched as some, mainly due to the possible pace scenario. The fact that he could barely hold off a maiden in the Wood is not an endorsement, but he ran well in the prior race against a horse regarded as better opposition (a horse I am staying away from, win or lose).

I don't have a list, but I am eagerly awaiting the post draw and the weather forecast. Those 2 will go a long way in helping me narrow down my selections.
If I had to say right now at this moment (without having fully had a chance to analyze every contender) I would tentatively go with these as my top 3:

1. Mor Spirit (fast only)
2. Creator
3. Gun Runner

Exaggerator;s chances increase on an off track, whereas that hinders Mor Spirit imho. Mor Spirit does not have a decent off track pedigree and he's now 0-2 under those conditions. Have to think a fast track puts him in a better spot.
Creator's biggest negative, by far, is his running style. If he had even a midpack style he'd be my top pick. However, he consistently runs well, regardless of pace and track condition, so he seems fairly adaptable despite that. The 19 other horses will likely get in his way tho.

Bring on the Derby Fever!

Quote from: peeptoad on April 22, 2016, 06:43:18 AM
I think you will need some luck with Outwork, but he is not as far-fetched as some, mainly due to the possible pace scenario. The fact that he could barely hold off a maiden in the Wood is not an endorsement, but he ran well in the prior race against a horse regarded as better opposition (a horse I am staying away from, win or lose).

I don't have a list, but I am eagerly awaiting the post draw and the weather forecast. Those 2 will go a long way in helping me narrow down my selections.
If I had to say right now at this moment (without having fully had a chance to analyze every contender) I would tentatively go with these as my top 3:

1. Mor Spirit (fast only)
2. Creator
3. Gun Runner

Exaggerator;s chances increase on an off track, whereas that hinders Mor Spirit imho. Mor Spirit does not have a decent off track pedigree and he's now 0-2 under those conditions. Have to think a fast track puts him in a better spot.
Creator's biggest negative, by far, is his running style. If he had even a midpack style he'd be my top pick. However, he consistently runs well, regardless of pace and track condition, so he seems fairly adaptable despite that. The 19 other horses will likely get in his way tho.

Bring on the Derby Fever!

I agree with the draw and the weather.  It broke my heart a few years ago when Lookin' at Lucky drew the rail.  The horse seemed jinxed most of the winter and spring and then that horrible draw pretty much cost him a fair chance.  So if Nyquist draws one of the three inside posts, it will greatly decrease his chances, in my eyes.

I have the same misgivings about Mor Spirit that I had about Union Rags a few years ago.  It isn't so much that he isn't fast enough but that he isn't quick enough.  The Derby is kind of like driving in traffic on the freeway.  If your car has a V8 engine you can dart around and change lanes and get in and out of tight spots if needed.  If your driving a V6 Hybrid, you have much less immediate acceleration.  Knowing this, the jock riding the V6 Hybrid type, has to either get a dream run or go ungodly wide.  Stevens keeps intimating that Mor Spirit has some turn of foot.  Perhaps due to circumstances, e.g. preps being a means to an end, slick track for his last prep, etc., I've yet to see it.

Of the others, Exaggerator will of course be at an advantage if the track is off--any kind of off, it seems.  On a fast track, for him, timing is the key.  He's pretty consistent, it's just a matter of how his run is timed.  Mohaymen has the talent but I have just never been convinced he loves his job.  He's like the well-to do, kid who has a tennis racket, baseball bat, basketball, football, etc. shoved in his or her hands at a young age.  They may very well come up to a level of prime efficiency but in the end want to do something else.  Danzig Candy is interesting in that if the track is fast, he'll probably get the lead somewhat like Bodemeister did.  He'll go fast but I don't think he'll receive a ton of pressure.  If Mike can get him to rate a little bit, he could hold on for more than a small share.  The Destin thing reminds me of Will Take Charge in 2013.  I gotta believe something is up there. The Wood, the AK and LA Derby showed me nothing and none of those horses did a thing for me.  The Blue Grass I think was a better prep than any of those at least much better than it looked going in.  It's almost erie, this reminds me a lot of 1974 the last year after a long TC drought.  Some nice horses but none truly dominant, in fact it's been quite a while since I've seen a field filled with so many what if or yeah but types.   

Quote from: curtis on April 22, 2016, 01:13:45 PM
I agree with the draw and the weather.  It broke my heart a few years ago when Lookin' at Lucky drew the rail.  The horse seemed jinxed most of the winter and spring and then that horrible draw pretty much cost him a fair chance.  So if Nyquist draws one of the three inside posts, it will greatly decrease his chances, in my eyes.

I have the same misgivings about Mor Spirit that I had about Union Rags a few years ago.  It isn't so much that he isn't fast enough but that he isn't quick enough. The Derby is kind of like driving in traffic on the freeway.  If your car has a V8 engine you can dart around and change lanes and get in and out of tight spots if needed.  If your driving a V6 Hybrid, you have much less immediate acceleration.  Knowing this, the jock riding the V6 Hybrid type, has to either get a dream run or go ungodly wide.  Stevens keeps intimating that Mor Spirit has some turn of foot.  Perhaps due to circumstances, e.g. preps being a means to an end, slick track for his last prep, etc., I've yet to see it.

Of the others, Exaggerator will of course be at an advantage if the track is off--any kind of off, it seems.  On a fast track, for him, timing is the key.  He's pretty consistent, it's just a matter of how his run is timed.  Mohaymen has the talent but I have just never been convinced he loves his job.  He's like the well-to do, kid who has a tennis racket, baseball bat, basketball, football, etc. shoved in his or her hands at a young age.  They may very well come up to a level of prime efficiency but in the end want to do something else.  Danzig Candy is interesting in that if the track is fast, he'll probably get the lead somewhat like Bodemeister did.  He'll go fast but I don't think he'll receive a ton of pressure.  If Mike can get him to rate a little bit, he could hold on for more than a small share.  The Destin thing reminds me of Will Take Charge in 2013.  I gotta believe something is up there. The Wood, the AK and LA Derby showed me nothing and none of those horses did a thing for me.  The Blue Grass I think was a better prep than any of those at least much better than it looked going in.  It's almost erie, this reminds me a lot of 1974 the last year after a long TC drought.  Some nice horses but none truly dominant, in fact it's been quite a while since I've seen a field filled with so many what if or yeah but types.

Re the bolded:I never thought about it quite that way, but it's true.
And, yeah, Mor Spirit is more of a grinding type. The fact that he can sit a bit closer than most of the others early on might help him out though. It's looking more and more like early speed will be dangerous and that does make Danzig Candy a potentially big threat... 

Good insights.

Thanks,

Outwork only has a chance in my opinion if the Wood was an indication of the horse winning despite not delivering the best performance. I agree the race was slow. But I thought he was up against it and still won. And I really liked the way he ran in the Tampa Bay Derby. I know his final 3 furlong time was slow in his last race, but will all the traffic issues he had an the track surface I can forgive that. I really like the Unbridled's so that is a big factor for me.

I think the comparison to 1974 is an apt one.

Who is the Cannonade in the field? Outwork who finished 2nd to Destin?
Exaggerator who finished 2nd to Nyquist?
Mor Spirit who finished 2nd to Exaggerator and Danzing Candy?
Creator who finished 3rd to Cupid?

We shall see.

Not sure how I feel about Mor Spirit after that work... I wonder if he usually works in blinkers and I'm not familiar enough with the way he normally works to form a solid opinion though. I would say I'm a little cool on him now, esp. since some of the others have been reportedly looking excellent in the mornings.

I tend not to give works over the track too much credence just because of what you suggest. Unless you have been watching a horse's works all along throughout the run up to the Derby, then it is very difficult to judge.

Do good works over the track always translate to success in the Kentucky Derby? I do not think so. I know American Pharoah worked well over the track. And California Chrome seemed to relish Churchill too. But so do a number of other horses. In fact, it seems that most horses train well over the surface.

Perhaps a better question might be, has there ever been a horse that did not train well over the Churchill track that still won the Kentucky Derby. Is that rare?

Can't answer that question without some research and I'm at work, but it's a good question.

I still prefer Mor Spirit over a fast track as opposed to slop and they apparently messed with his blinks fort this work (more severe blinkers) and I wonder if they will be in place for the Derby.


Indecision, indecision... waiting on that post draw next week!


I think the bigger question is why I suddenly seem to be a mod on this site. I have the modify and remove access for everyone's posts. How did this happen?  :o

Quote from: peeptoad on April 27, 2016, 06:59:40 AM
Can't answer that question without some research and I'm at work, but it's a good question.

I still prefer Mor Spirit over a fast track as opposed to slop and they apparently messed with his blinks fort this work (more severe blinkers) and I wonder if they will be in place for the Derby.


Indecision, indecision... waiting on that post draw next week!


I think the bigger question is why I suddenly seem to be a mod on this site. I have the modify and remove access for everyone's posts. How did this happen?  :o

Since only approximately three people post here, I'm sure it's just luck of the draw.😉

Well, all three of you guys are on your own then... I ain't deleting or changing anything!

peeptoad - I think its a result of the number of posts that you become a global moderator since I am one and received no special powers that I am aware of. lol.

I have been rewatching Outwork's races and I do not think he is a need the lead type. In his 2nd career race which occurred at 6 furlongs (10 months after his first start where he became the first Uncle Mo to win a race) he was in 2nd until past the half mile pole. Then he took the lead. Other than his 4 furlong win last April, his only loss came where he went right to the lead. In the Wood Memorial he sat a length back of Matt King Coal and then gradually moved up and actually showed some guts being a part of some sharp early fractions and still holding on to win the race. I think the biggest problem with this horse is his youth. But he is versatile. He can run fast. And I do not think he is distance limited. He came home slow on an awful track after a miserable trip where he broke first in the field and then settled back into 2nd. Being a young horse he loses his focus and I think that is what happened when he made the lead in the Wood and why it looked like he slowed down. It was like he made the lead and then said, "I'm done. I did it. Having a Hall of Fame jockey fortunately got his attention back on the matter at hand. Street Sense lost to Curli in the Preakness because of similar gawking. If a BC Juvenile winner can do it, I think a young horse making his 5th start int eh Kentucky Derby can be forgiven.

And Outwork just worked behind horses taking dirt and did well. I think a lot of people are going to expect a speed duel between Outwork and Danzing Candy that is just not going to happen. I think that these horses will be ridden to save their speed for a late kick, or just cruise to victory. I do not think that Danzing Candy needs the led either. The only other front running horse in the field is Nyquist who showed in the BC Juvenile he does not need the lead.

So, I think choosing a deep closer in this race like Mo Tom could be a big mistake since I do not think that he will get the pace to run at. I expect modest fraction mid 47s to 48 early. and about a 1:37 mile. 

Quote from: peeptoad on April 27, 2016, 09:56:51 AM
Well, all three of you guys are on your own then... I ain't deleting or changing anything!

Please delete or change my picks, in the pick of the day, when they don't hit the board!!!

BTW, i'm here every day, but i don't know who i like for the Derby yet
As soon as i like something you guys, as always, will be the first to know!!!


Spiro

Quote from: Raven on April 27, 2016, 01:24:01 PM
Please delete or change my picks, in the pick of the day, when they don't hit the board!!!

Ha ha, you got it! (nnnnnnot!)  :thumbsup: 8)

Quote from: Man o Taz on April 27, 2016, 10:57:49 AM
peeptoad - I think its a result of the number of posts that you become a global moderator since I am one and received no special powers that I am aware of. lol.

I have been rewatching Outwork's races and I do not think he is a need the lead type. In his 2nd career race which occurred at 6 furlongs (10 months after his first start where he became the first Uncle Mo to win a race) he was in 2nd until past the half mile pole. Then he took the lead. Other than his 4 furlong win last April, his only loss came where he went right to the lead. In the Wood Memorial he sat a length back of Matt King Coal and then gradually moved up and actually showed some guts being a part of some sharp early fractions and still holding on to win the race. I think the biggest problem with this horse is his youth. But he is versatile. He can run fast. And I do not think he is distance limited. He came home slow on an awful track after a miserable trip where he broke first in the field and then settled back into 2nd. Being a young horse he loses his focus and I think that is what happened when he made the lead in the Wood and why it looked like he slowed down. It was like he made the lead and then said, "I'm done. I did it. Having a Hall of Fame jockey fortunately got his attention back on the matter at hand. Street Sense lost to Curli in the Preakness because of similar gawking. If a BC Juvenile winner can do it, I think a young horse making his 5th start int eh Kentucky Derby can be forgiven.

And Outwork just worked behind horses taking dirt and did well. I think a lot of people are going to expect a speed duel between Outwork and Danzing Candy that is just not going to happen. I think that these horses will be ridden to save their speed for a late kick, or just cruise to victory. I do not think that Danzing Candy needs the led either. The only other front running horse in the field is Nyquist who showed in the BC Juvenile he does not need the lead.

So, I think choosing a deep closer in this race like Mo Tom could be a big mistake since I do not think that he will get the pace to run at. I expect modest fraction mid 47s to 48 early. and about a 1:37 mile.

We do have powers - but they are for safety and to keep this place clean - good news - we have some authority - but with this group - easy job!

I second Dusty's comments!!

Quote from: Dusty on April 29, 2016, 06:52:01 PM
We do have powers - but they are for safety and to keep this place clean - good news - we have some authority - but with this group - easy job!

Perhaps I phrased it wrong, we do not have any powers that I have a clue how to exercise. lol

OK here goes!

Moheymen

Exaggerator

Nyquist

Outwork

Majesto

Good Luck to all.

Spiro

1./ Nyquist
2./ Gun Runner
3./ Mohaymen

Until Nyquist gets beat, I'll go with him.

This is as close to a top 10 as I can get now that the posts have been drawn:
#3 Creator
#6 My Man Sam
#17 Mor Spirit
#11 Exaggerator
#2 Suddenbreakingnews
#5 Gun Runner
#13 Nyquist
#15 Outwork
#19 Brody's Cause
#9 Destin

Not necessarily betting them all; Creator and My Man Sam are def. on most tickets though.

Well, I did not put Nyquist on top. Could not do it. Live and learn. :-)

Quote from: Man o Taz on May 09, 2016, 11:15:39 AM
Well, I did not put Nyquist on top. Could not do it. Live and learn. :-)

Oh I hear you!

I thought there was no way he could do it, especially when I saw those early fractions. But he did. Pretty amazing. We shall see if he can keep it going.

Well,  I misjudged him too

That's three Derbys in a row for me :flaming:

If only had I slipped Exaggerator into 2nd and moved Gunrunner and Mohaymen down one slot.

Oh man, I am so sorry, if anyone knows afleetphil can we get in touch with him, I mistakenly deleted his account.  :(

Phil, if you see this post, try and login with the password "nyquist"

Thanks. Just logged in with "nyquist "