Breeders Cup DISTAFF

[stark]

Years from now I can look back and get all sentimental about this horse or that mare and remember all the good times about various Breeders Cups, but for right now I'd like to make a profit

Simple approach, which ever of the big three is the longest price on the toteboard is worth a bet, thanks in advance!

[Senator L]

I dunno about betting the race unless you like a 4th horse.
Personally, I only bet a favorite that is a standout that is even money or better.
With (3) horses who all have a shot I usually just do a small action bet.
Saturday's are where the money is at.  :chickendance:
But at Breeders Cup you only need one good winner to make your chicken dance
:chickendance: :chickendance: :chickendance: :chickendance: :chickendance: :chickendance:

[curtis]

Taz,

But my gut tells me Songbird is really special.

I hear they're doing wonderful things now with probiotics.   They're all special, even the one's finishing up the track.  I don't remember the race but it was the prep that preceded the Santa Susana Stakes--now the Santa Anita Oaks--in 1988.  A nice, tiny, little filly named Goodbye Halo ranged up to Winning Colors, who had yet to be tested, and got by her.  In the Santa Susana, Winning Colors beat Goodbye Halo like a rug.  Sometimes even the really special ones need to learn what they need to do before they do it.  I could be wrong--it happens on occasion , but I think Songbird will run really well, I just don't think she'll finish in the top two.  If she does, she'll have run a race, I've yet to see from her.  That doesn't mean she doesn't have it in her, I just think this is a bigger step up than many people think.

[Man o Taz]

Arrogate did some amazing things against this field of three year old males. But they were what many see as a relatively weak crop of three year olds.

Songbird did some amazing things against three year old females all year. But we do not know how good this crop of three year old females is yet.

Neither horse has stepped up to face the class of North American racing this year. In 2014 the three year olds were dominant. In 2015 it was a mix. In 2016 I think that the older horses continue to be the most impressive for both sexes.

I agree this is a big class jump for Songbird. Win or lose she is a special horse. If she wins, she is that much more special and maybe we see her in the Pegasus.

But I think the older females need a bit more respect than I see them getting.

That said, Songbird's connections deserve a ton of respect for putting her undefeated record on the line in this race when they could have easily retired her for the year since winning it will garner her little more than the historical achievement of winning another BC race over a very strong field of challengers. The top 3 horses in here have 20 G1 wins between them.

[stark]

Beholder half in 49, Songbird five eighths 58.60, BC Distaff works Thursday at Santa Anita.

[stark]

Cavorting out of Breeders' Cup; likely to be retired
Three-time Grade 1 winning filly Cavorting has bruising of the cannon bones and will not run in the Breeders' Cup Distaff

[stark]

Not sure why anybody is shipping in for this race....

Brad Free ‏@BradFree1  Oct 12
Home team edge amplified:
BC Distaff favorites Songbird, Beholder, Stellar Wind combined 25 starts Santa Anita = 22 wins, 3 seconds

[Man o Taz]

Because you have to be in it to win it.

And because this is a very nice distaff division this year.

As Larry Jones said in the post-race Spinster interview - there are 7 (now 6) horses that have a good chance to win this race.

:-)

[stark]

Songbird, the undefeated champion, cruised through a six-furlong workout in 1:12.80 at dawn at Sana Anita on Thursday.

Ridden by Edgar Rodriguez, her regular exercise rider, Songbird worked alone and galloped out seven furlongs in 1:26.70 and a mile in 1:39.90, according to trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Songbird will start in the Breeders' Cup Distaff here on Nov. 4, her first start against older fillies and mares.

Rodriguez did not urge through the workout.

"She looked very nice this morning," Hollendorfer said. "She'll have two more works."

[stark]

Beholder recorded a fast workout of five furlongs in 59.20 seconds at Santa Anita on Thursday in a drill that trainer Richard Mandella describes as her "serious" exercise in advance of the Breeders' Cup Distaff on Nov. 4.

Ridden by Gary Stevens, Beholder had fractions of 22.40 seconds for the opening quarter-mile and a half-mile in 46.60 seconds. Beholder worked with a stablemate, starting three lengths behind. Beholder was moved to the rail entering the stretch and finished two lengths clear.

"She's happy and in a good place," Stevens said. "We were rolling."

[Senator L]

Stellar Wind got the better of Hard Aces in her Oct 21 work  :chickendance:

[stark]

There were 178 recorded works this morning at Santa Anita.

The only one designated breezing by track clockers was Songbird

[Senator L]

Maybe they're biased? :chickendance:

[Man o Taz]

There were 178 recorded works this morning at Santa Anita.

The only one designated breezing by track clockers was Songbird

That's interesting because while the track was playing a bit slower today, she usually works faster heading into a race, doesn't she?

If you look at her recent works she fired bullets and in this one she finished 26 of 75 which is a rarity for her.

Seems strange.

[stark]

Songbird has never faced a horse that had previously run a 100+ BSF.  In the Distaff she'll likely face 5.

I'm sticking with my original plan.....whichever of the big 3 offers the longest odds, that's my pick!!!