2016 Breeders Cup Classic

[Raven]

I stand corrected
In 42 years of horse playing I've never placed a show bet.

[stark]

What are you basing this assertion on?

Knowing that you don't make show wagers, perhaps your question was more about my comment of CHROME opening at 1/5 on the board?

Even though we all make our own numbers and we all do our own handicapping, the sport in total is dependent on the public handicappers, the experts if you will, who write and predict the winners in print then the toteboard is a mere reflection.  Maybe it's the DRF featuring Brad Free, Analyst, Sweep, Privman and others, or maybe it's the Courier-Journal where they get 'em all, Bredar, Joe, Jerry, Mary et al, maybe it's Johnny and Tara that catch your ear, or maybe its NYRA where Andy and Ernie post their picks, maybe its Gordon Jones at his P6 club meeting, maybe its Ubercapper and the Equibase gurus, maybe its the editors at Brisnet, maybe its Bruno with the workouts, maybe its Beyer himself, maybe it's TVG and a couple of 'em making a single in the classic on their P4 tickets, whatever wherever you see information, I think it's going to be a near unanimous decision of picking CHROME on top, hence the 1/5.  Once that number pops up on the screen, there will no doubt be some players looking elsewhere for value, but 3/5 should be about the maximum when the bell rings.

Have you seen any "expert" publicly picking somebody other than CHROME to win?

p.s.  I was going to say 1/9 but I thought that'd really silly to predict, what say you for opening odds on raceday? 
Maybe Jon White checks in here and can contribute!

p.p.s  Aidan--What's this about FOUND being entered in the Classic?

[peeptoad]

p.p.s  Aidan--What's this about FOUND being entered in the Classic?

[CA_Chrome]

Chrome will definitely go off the favorite, but there will be plenty of people who will try to find value with Arrogate, Frosted, Hoppertunity and others.

[Raven]

Knowing that you don't make show wagers, perhaps your question was more about my comment of CHROME opening at 1/5 on the board?

Even though we all make our own numbers and we all do our own handicapping, the sport in total is dependent on the public handicappers, the experts if you will, who write and predict the winners in print then the toteboard is a mere reflection.  Maybe it's the DRF featuring Brad Free, Analyst, Sweep, Privman and others, or maybe it's the Courier-Journal where they get 'em all, Bredar, Joe, Jerry, Mary et al, maybe it's Johnny and Tara that catch your ear, or maybe its NYRA where Andy and Ernie post their picks, maybe its Gordon Jones at his P6 club meeting, maybe its Ubercapper and the Equibase gurus, maybe its the editors at Brisnet, maybe its Bruno with the workouts, maybe its Beyer himself, maybe it's TVG and a couple of 'em making a single in the classic on their P4 tickets, whatever wherever you see information, I think it's going to be a near unanimous decision of picking CHROME on top, hence the 1/5.  Once that number pops up on the screen, there will no doubt be some players looking elsewhere for value, but 3/5 should be about the maximum when the bell rings.

Have you seen any "expert" publicly picking somebody other than CHROME to win?

p.s.  I was going to say 1/9 but I thought that'd really silly to predict, what say you for opening odds on raceday? 
Maybe Jon White checks in here and can contribute!

p.p.s  Aidan--What's this about FOUND being entered in the Classic?

Agree with you on CC.  The no show wagering thing goes over my head.
As for CC, Jerkens(the giant killer) once said he was never afraid of one horse!!   Not an exact quote

[curtis]

I stand corrected
In 42 years of horse playing I've never placed a show bet.

I haven't placed one since 1986. It used to be show wagering was only cancelled when there were less than 5 wagering interests. Now it happens more often and to be fair, NYRA isn't the only culprit.

[stark]

Meet David Hofmans, the Giant Killer of the Breeders' Cup.

Consider the fact that he saddled Adoration, at 40-1 the longest shot on the board, to win the 2003 Distaff under Patrick Valenzuela; Desert Code at 36-1 with Richard Migliore up to win the 2008 Turf Sprint; and Alphabet Soup to upset two-time Horse of the Year Cigar in the 1996 Classic with Chris McCarron aboard at a $41.70 win payoff.

His next task could be his most daunting, however, sending out Santa Anita Handicap and Gold Cup at Santa Anita winner Melatonin after an absence of more than four months to tackle streaking 2014 Horse of the Year California Chrome in the $6 million Classic at Santa Anita on Saturday, Nov. 5.

"He loves to run fresh, I know that," said the 73-year-old Hofmans of Melatonin, a five-year-old gelded son of Kodiak Kowboy owned by Susan Osborne's Tarabilla Farms, Inc. "Unfortunately, I missed a race with him before the Classic so we have to come into what is probably the toughest race of his life off of works.

"I know the horse is doing really well right now. He reminds me of Alphabet Soup. They both try real hard every time and they're both so smart.

"I thought Adoration and Alphabet Soup had good shots to win, despite their odds. Desert Code, I wasn't too sure about, but I think Migliore was a big part of that. He really wanted that win and he rode the horse like he did, and I think he got every bit out of him.

"But all three horses were like Melatonin, peaking at the right moment."

[stark]

I thought Mor Spirit out worked him, it didn't seem the rider ever moved on him.
Arrogate sure did catch up quick, do you think he'll come from off the pace?

Sounds to me the workout guru Bruno agrees with you!

Racingwithbruno ‏@Racingwithbruno  19h19 hours ago
The Arrogate and Mor Spirit work on 10/18 was absolute beauty to watch, and once again for an average eye, who beat who, is all they see

[Man o Taz]

I think the work in company was just in case he does not break well or has an outside post. His best race was on the lead. Baffert is unlikely to sacrifice his career best form. If he gets an outside post or gets into traffic trouble he is taking no chance with the work in company. Other than that, I expect Arrogate on the lead.

Are they looking to retire Keen Ice so they will give him one more shot?

I can think of easier places to run him than the Classic.

We shall see.

[CA_Chrome]

Sounds to me the workout guru Bruno agrees with you!

Racingwithbruno ‏@Racingwithbruno  19h19 hours ago
The Arrogate and Mor Spirit work on 10/18 was absolute beauty to watch, and once again for an average eye, who beat who, is all they see

Maybe I'm reading to much into it, but seemed to me that Arrogate was being urged a bit to catch Mor Spirit while the latter was being held a bit to let Arrogate catch up. Can't quite put my finger on it or explain what my eye is catching, but Arrogate seems to have a somewhat awkward way of going. It's almost like he is head heavy, if that makes sense. Not sure how to explain myself better. Someone on the BloodHorse.com forum referred to Arrogate as "lumbering," and Baffert said the colt is a "big jumping" horse. I understand what they mean without being able to articulate it myself. On the other hand, Arrogate did level out and stride out nicely once he was urged.

[peeptoad]

Are they looking to retire Keen Ice so they will give him one more shot?

No idea, but he is now in the Pletcher barn. Not sure I paid attention when that happened... when did it happen?

[Man o Taz]

I believe it was post DWC. I saw him after training a number of times at the Pletcher barn and wondered when he would get a start. He looked just OK in his first start back. It seems like a very heavy lift for him to be pointed to the BC Classic against this field. I would think an allowance race, maybe the Clark, and then the Hal's Hope and Pegasus if he performed well, but from an allowance to a the BC Classic. Wow. I hope he does well. Always like him and his breeding.

[CA_Chrome]

Arrogate looked physically better in today's work than his last one. Good work, strong gallop out.

[Diver52]

I agree he sort of lumbers--he doesn't have that economical float of AP for example.  But he IS a big, heavy horse, especially through the neck and shoulder.  I don't think its in him to be graceful!  But that shoulder does give him a lot of extension when he levels out.

[stark]

Major jockey news for BC Classic:

Castellano opts for Keen Ice, Irad Ortiz Jr. picks up Shaman Ghost