I've never been real impressed with Victor. Too much Hollywood big shot. I would have loved to see Mike Smith on Chrome. We would probably have had a different outcome.
Quote from: afleetphil on November 05, 2016, 06:27:29 PM
I've never been real impressed with Victor. Too much Hollywood big shot. I would have loved to see Mike Smith on Chrome. We would probably have had a different outcome.
Gotta wave the BS flag on that one!
Victor is the guy that won in Dubai when his saddle was sliding off the tail of CC.
Victor is the guy that jumped out to the middle of the track and controlled the pace etc etc etc
This is one of the best races CHROME has ever run and he came up just short, not the jockey's fault, it's what they call horse racing and today ARROGATE won.
Quote from: stark on November 05, 2016, 06:37:59 PM
Gotta wave the BS flag on that one!
Victor is the guy that won in Dubai when his saddle was sliding off the tail of CC.
Victor is the guy that jumped out to the middle of the track and controlled the pace etc etc etc
This is one of the best races CHROME has ever run and he came up just short, not the jockey's fault, it's what they call horse racing and today ARROGATE won.
AGREED
Quote from: afleetphil on November 05, 2016, 06:27:29 PM
I've never been real impressed with Victor. Too much Hollywood big shot. I would have loved to see Mike Smith on Chrome. We would probably have had a different outcome.
I..... no. I don't agree with this at all. Chrome got beat by a better horse yesterday. End of story.
Quote from: afleetphil on November 05, 2016, 06:27:29 PM
I've never been real impressed with Victor. Too much Hollywood big shot. I would have loved to see Mike Smith on Chrome. We would probably have had a different outcome.
Last add if I may, trying to paint a picture of Victor Espinoza a little better, not just the ride on what Andy Beyer has now called a career best speed rating of 119, but the Hollywood big shot stuff you referenced, consider this.....It got quite a bit of publicity at the time and is easy enough to research that he donated 100% or $80,000 for his American Pharaoh Triple Crown win to the CITY OF HOPE, a cancer research hospital that Victor aims for curing the kids! (Baffert also donated his share to a couple of different charities)
But it doesn't end there......every year jockeys across the nation have their special fundraising days when they donate 10% of that days earnings to a designated charity like PDJF and that's great. But Victor gives 10% every day, every win all year long to the same City of Hope, doing his part trying to cure cancer for kids.
We need more Victors in sports imho.
Victor deserves the praise he doesn't seek for his charitable contributions--but I'd like to have seen him work out a stalking trip and then turn it on. CC hasn't always been a front runner. But frankly, I don't think it would have mattered. Arrogate is just too good.
I think the main reason Arrogate won was the distance. It would be interesting
to see them match up at GP at a 1 1/8th
Well, I for one have to agree that Victor did not ride the best race and Art Sherman tends to agree.
First, the plan was to stalk the pace and Victor goes to the lead. If you look at the way Victor warmed up the horse and the comments Sherman made before the race this seemed the plan. Melatonin would have liked to have taken the lead which would have allowed Chrome to relax off the pace. Instead, being on the lead there was a strong likelihood that he would expend more energy than he had following the pace.
Second, the pace was a little fast. It was not excessively fast, but the first quarter was quick. Instead of going 48 the half was closer to 47. Instead of going 1:12 it was closer to 1:11. That lost second would come back to bite Chrome.
Third, coming into the stretch, as noted by Art Sherman, one would think that if you were on the lead you would try and increase your margin. Especially, since California Chrome had a reputation for increasing his lead in the second turn to create an unbeatable margin in the stretch. The distance between horses from the third call to the stretch run remained unchanged as if Victor was waiting for someone to close and pass him.
Finally, the rail was known to be dead all day, and yet Victor found himself not in the middle of the track when he was fighting off Arrogate, but closer to the rail.
I have a great amount of respect for Victor Espinoza and as noted, much of the credit for Chrome's wins are due to his professionalism and talent. But I think in this race he was too concerned with what the other horses were doing the way he kept looking back to see what was happening behind him.
The fact that Chrome performed well should not distract from the possibility that he may have performed better. Just my opinion.
Why is the rail dead so often. What makes it that way.
One way of measuring a horse's performance is by their speed ratings, the Beyer's being the most popular benchmark, CHROME RAN HIS BEST RACE EVER, how much better do you really expect/want it to be?
I seem to recall a couple of races where the pace was undecided prior to opening the gates, and one in particular where CHROME was mired down on the rail, and what did Victor do........he assumed command and jumped out into the 4 or 5 path shocking everybody for the merry-go-round race. How many armchair critics would have suggested ahead of time, I hope Victor goes wide from the rail once he gets the lead, LOL.
Criticizing jockeys is no stranger to this game, but when a horse runs his heart out, when he bests his all-time performance, I think the sensible thing to say after the race is we got beat today. It's not necessary in this situation to blame anybody for defeat. Mike Smith blames himself for losing on Zenyatta, not necessary. Trainer X says I ran a short horse today, yep, gotta accept some blame there.
imho.
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 08, 2016, 10:49:27 AM
Well, I for one have to agree that Victor did not ride the best race and Art Sherman tends to agree.
First, the plan was to stalk the pace and Victor goes to the lead. If you look at the way Victor warmed up the horse and the comments Sherman made before the race this seemed the plan. Melatonin would have liked to have taken the lead which would have allowed Chrome to relax off the pace. Instead, being on the lead there was a strong likelihood that he would expend more energy than he had following the pace.
Second, the pace was a little fast. It was not excessively fast, but the first quarter was quick. Instead of going 48 the half was closer to 47. Instead of going 1:12 it was closer to 1:11. That lost second would come back to bite Chrome.
Third, coming into the stretch, as noted by Art Sherman, one would think that if you were on the lead you would try and increase your margin. Especially, since California Chrome had a reputation for increasing his lead in the second turn to create an unbeatable margin in the stretch. The distance between horses from the third call to the stretch run remained unchanged as if Victor was waiting for someone to close and pass him.
Finally, the rail was known to be dead all day, and yet Victor found himself not in the middle of the track when he was fighting off Arrogate, but closer to the rail.
I have a great amount of respect for Victor Espinoza and as noted, much of the credit for Chrome's wins are due to his professionalism and talent. But I think in this race he was too concerned with what the other horses were doing the way he kept looking back to see what was happening behind him.
The fact that Chrome performed well should not distract from the possibility that he may have performed better. Just my opinion.
All that and the best he was able to produce was a 119 BSF and beat the rest of the field by almost 11 lengths. Victor should be drawn an quartered.
Victor has been praised and lauded on this forum for his heady rides in both the Pacific Classic and the Awesome Again, both instances in which he took the early lead. What have you done for me lately. Short of Baffert switching to Ronnie Franklin, none of it would have really mattered, the best horse won. Chrome should have got him before Arrogate really figures out what he's doing.
Quote from: afleetphil on November 08, 2016, 12:58:43 PM
Why is the rail dead so often. What makes it that way.
The favorite losing while running near it. It's in the Horse Racing Excuse Thesaurus right next to Cuppy Track.😉
Last add re: Sherman's post race comments, if he would've liked to see Victor open up 3 or 4 lengths at the top of the stretch, he should have told him before the race, I'll guess that Victor would try and comply with trainer's instructions.
But the truth is, in the saddling area where handshakes and well wishes are exchanged with the connections, nary a word of instruction was uttered as is customary in most stakes races. Traditionally the trainer says "I didn't need to tell the boy anything, he knows the horse and we'll see how the race unfolds"
Same thing should've been said AFTER the race by what is normally a very classy old trainer.
Quote from: afleetphil on November 08, 2016, 12:58:43 PM
Why is the rail dead so often. What makes it that way.
You need to be on the inside to know what the track maintenance crew does. But think about it as you watch the steam rollers, harrowing devices, watering trucks go round 'n round. Sometimes they roll over the inside an extra time or two making it an almost sealed rock hard type of service, while other times they push extra dirt down there from the highpoint on the course, making it deeper and slower than the rest of the track.
Your job, if you decide to accept it as a handicapper, is to identify the bias asap after a race or two, then wager accordingly.
Quote from: curtis on November 08, 2016, 01:06:25 PM
All that and the best he was able to produce was a 119 BSF and beat the rest of the field by almost 11 lengths. Victor should be drawn an quartered.
Victor has been praised and lauded on this forum for his heady rides in both the Pacific Classic and the Awesome Again, both instances in which he took the early lead. What have you done for me lately. Short of Baffert switching to Ronnie Franklin, none of it would have really mattered, the best horse won. Chrome should have got him before Arrogate really figures out what he's doing.
There is no doubt that Chrome performed very well in the race.
The question is whether Victor did anything different in this ride than he had in past rides, and whether that compromised Chrome's chances of winning at all. I think he did and it did. You obviously have a different opinion. Sherman said the plan was to take back and not set the pace. And Chrome is most comfortable off the pace.
And I do agree, this was the race for Chrome to beat Arrogate. The next one will not be so easy, if this one was easy at all.
If the two meet again in the Pegasus then advantage Chrome at a shorter distance and possibly more speed biased strip at GP.
IMO Victor could have ridden differently and the result stands. Someone posted this over at Pace Advantage in a thread regarding Chrome and I agree: he is a "blast" runner. He is not a horse that can produce a sustained winning run... he's proven that time and time again and I think it was finally his downfall here (as it was in the 14 Belmont, and the race where Shared Belief blew by him in the stretch). Chrome's main strength is his early speed and his ability to cruise at a slightly faster pace than most are capable of. This allows him to set or lay just off the pace until the top of the stretch when he makes his patented short, quick burst of a run which, when timed properly, will usually get him to the wire first. He only appears to be able to produce a shorter burst that lasts 1/2 to 1 furlong tops, following this he generally coasts home.
I said it prior to the 2014 TC races, and again a few weeks ago prior to the BC: Chrome's late pace is not the strongest; it's better/stronger than it was in 2014, but still not stellar. IMO this is what got him beaten. It's not the ride, it's not the track... he just wasn't good enough to keep Arrogate (a freakishly talented horse that has much stronger late pace #s) at bay.
If Chrome is a one run/burst horse, then why go to the lead with him like Victor did?
Why not conserve more for a late stretch run/burst?
And why not accelerate in the second turn like he has done in the past?
I do not know that he won the race, but my concern was only to echo Art Sherman's sentiments that he did not ride Chrome with confidence going into the second and seemed to be waiting for something to happen instead of trying to kick away.
Maybe a fresher Chrome can be more competitive at a shorter distance, but I frankly do not see it. :)
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 09, 2016, 07:18:04 AM
If Chrome is a one run/burst horse, then why go to the lead with him like Victor did?
Why not conserve more for a late stretch run/burst?
And why not accelerate in the second turn like he has done in the past?
I do not know that he won the race, but my concern was only to echo Art Sherman's sentiments that he did not ride Chrome with confidence going into the second and seemed to be waiting for something to happen instead of trying to kick away.
Maybe a fresher Chrome can be more competitive at a shorter distance, but I frankly do not see it. :)
Re: your why go to the lead question...my guess is because a horse on an easy lead is not going to expend more energy than a horse that is stalking another horse under pressure. Going to the lead early has worked for Chrome before and he was on the inside of his main foe in the BC. A quality early speed horse (e.g. Chrome) is almost always going to have an easier time of it on an uncontested lead.
Beyond that the only comment I have left is that if Sherman was unhappy with Victor's ride (which I never heard until maybe the day after the race) then he should have given him instructions rather than "leave it up to the jock".
there is an old adage "good jockeys don't need instructions and bad ones don't listen" :chickendance:
Sherman didn't give Victor any instructions, reportedly, before the Pacific Classic and not a negative word was uttered when he wired the field. I imagine that maybe Martin came to Art a little hot, perhaps, after the race Saturday and Victor ended up face down under the bus. When you have a horse that can either go to the lead or stalk and still run an exceptional race you have quite a weapon. I look at it like this. If someone had told you right after the Pacific Classic that Chrome would go right to the front in the BC Classic and would end up beating Frosted, Melatonin, Hoppertunity, Effinex, etc. by double digit lengths you probably would have mortgaged your house to bet on him. If some one told you a non-stakes winning three-year-old colt eligible for a NW3 would beat him you would have had them committed. But then again if someone had told you in 1985 that the Loose Cannon owner of the USFL NewYork/New Jersey Generals would someday be US President.......... That's why they run the races.
It is funny that you say that because I read somewhere where Perry Martin was overheard saying to Victor after the Pacific Classic whether it was in the AM the next day or right after, "See Victor what happens when you follow instructions."
I have no problem with Chrome's performance. He ran well. My only issue is whether he could have performed better. I know hindsight is 20/20 but if Chrome is to have a chance at beating Arrogate, which I doubt, in the Pegasus Stakes the performance has to be dissected. :)
Well, analyzing and dissecting is a big part of what makes this sport so great imo... so here is some more to add to your dissection tray:
QuoteFinal 5/16 Mile
Arrogate 7.5F 6.20 6.20 5.97 5.97 6.00 FIN
Chrome 7.5F 6.29 6.26 5.97 6.00 6.29 FIN
IMO Chrome could not have run any better... he ran a career top race (and the speed fig confirms this), but just wasn't quite enough to hold off Arrogate.
So if Chrome had saved a bit more in the tank early he could not have run faster late?
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 11, 2016, 06:12:19 AM
So if Chrome had saved a bit more in the tank early he could not have run faster late?
The
IFgame is a slippery slope that leads analysis astray in my opinion.
You could just as easily say, the morning after, as we've all seen countless times in races across America, the free spirited horse that gets restrained early on, trying to rate to jockey's instructions, gets pissed off, spits the bit and runs last.
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 11, 2016, 06:12:19 AM
So if Chrome had saved a bit more in the tank early he could not have run faster late?
You're starting to sound as if you lead the league in Monday morning touchdown passes.
Were you this critical of Victor's Pacific Classic ride? You've been going on for weeks about how Beholder belonged in the BC Classic and later the Pegasus and how Arrogate very well could be another Bellamy Road. Shouldn't Victor have saved something to fend off Beholder? Instructions are fine as long as everyone else plays along, but once the gate opens and things aren't going accordingly, it's time to start dancing. Chrome doesn't have a favored tempo. He just got beat.
Quote from: stark on November 11, 2016, 07:00:44 AM
The IFgame is a slippery slope that leads analysis astray in my opinion.
You could just as easily say, the morning after, as we've all seen countless times in races across America, the free spirited horse that gets restrained early on, trying to rate to jockey's instructions, gets pissed off, spits the bit and runs last.
Exactly! Go back and look at J.O. Tobin's early 1978 races, Hawkster's early 1990 races, Bertrando's 1993 Strub, etc. All brilliant speed horses, throttled down and beaten by fighting their jocks.
Quote from: curtis on November 11, 2016, 09:27:28 AM
You're starting to sound as if you lead the league in Monday morning touchdown passes.
Were you this critical of Victor's Pacific Classic ride? You've been going on for weeks about how Beholder belonged in the BC Classic and later the Pegasus and how Arrogate very well could be another Bellamy Road. Shouldn't Victor have saved something to fend off Beholder? Instructions are fine as long as everyone else plays along, but once the gate opens and things aren't going accordingly, it's time to start dancing. Chrome doesn't have a favored tempo. He just got beat.
I would have been perfectly happy with a ride like the one given in the Pacific Classic. That was not what we saw in the Classic.
And now it is looking like there may be no rematch with Juddmonte worried more about the Dubai World Cup and a long racing season if the Pegasus were to be chosen for him.
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 14, 2016, 09:54:37 AM
I would have been perfectly happy with a ride like the one given in the Pacific Classic. That was not what we saw in the Classic.
Because of the similarities between the two rides I have to ask, specifically what about the PC ride did youike that wasn't done in the Classic?
I like that Chrome increased his lead on the turn and kept moving forward as he had done in other races.
I also like that while his early fractions were a little quicker, his later fractions milder and more consistent.
What's done is done...Chrome ran a good race. Hopefully Victor feels confident enough to be a bit more aggressive next time out.
Really, the only difference between Chromes Pacific Classic and the Breeders Cup was that Arrogate only ran in the latter of the two.
At Del Mar it was 5+ lengths back to the pack at the finish, while in the BC he was 10+ clear of the field except for the new face.
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/people/id-never-take-off-just-one-race-sherman-confirms-espinoza-remain-chrome/
Lots of flack over that ride, and sounds like Art agrees, although so diplomatic
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 14, 2016, 01:58:13 PM
I like that Chrome increased his lead on the turn and kept moving forward as he had done in other races.
I also like that while his early fractions were a little quicker, his later fractions milder and more consistent.
What's done is done...Chrome ran a good race. Hopefully Victor feels confident enough to be a bit more aggressive next time out.
The fractions (and the early pace) were faster in the Classic. The reason Chrome was able to open up in the Pac Classic is that he ran moderately slower opening quarter and half mile splits.
Following the SA track maintenance prior to the BC the times were markedly slower on dirt due to the addition of sand (there were multiple articles that mentioned this prior to the BC because Baffert, among others, wanted track maintenance to "tighten up" the track, which they didn't do). With this in mind, although the split times that Chrome set were overall were slightly faster in the Classic, the actual pace (
not the raw time) was significantly faster due to the slower times as a result of the track being altered.
So, while Chrome might have been able to run yet even faster early on in the Classic than he already did ( a career best race, and faster than he ran in the Pac Classic) had he gone faster he most surely would have faltered and lost by even more.
1/4 1/2 STR FIN
PC: 24.09 23.93 24.47 24.44
Classic: 23.87 23.81 24.76 24.39
Please take a close look at this photo: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CxKn3nvVEAA9qUC.jpg (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CxKn3nvVEAA9qUC.jpg)
Here is the proof anyone needs that Victor did what he has been doing all along...keeping Chrome under wraps as they approach the finish line. Look at the difference in the reins and jockey position. One rider has the reins totally let out and is low down on his horse riding for all he's worth. The other jockey has his reins wrapped, is more vertical on his horse and actually appears to be holding his horse back.
Chrome was not ridden out in most of his races this year. Only in the Dubai World Cup and San Diego Hcp did Victor ride the horse all the way to the finish. In every other race Victor actually slowed Chrome down approaching the finish line. This is a seriously bad habit Victor has, and Art Sherman even commented on it in an interview BEFORE the BCC. In the meantime, in every work leading up to the BCC, Baffert trained Arrogate for exactly this scenario...closing on the outside. Jeff Siegel commented on this BEFORE the BCC during a handicapping show after the PPs were drawn. Victor didn't do his homework on the competition he would face in the BCC.
In the BCC, Victor was looking around to see if anyone was closing, because he was doing the identical thing...keeping Chrome under wraps approaching the finish. If Chrome loses Horse of the Year because of this, it would be a serious injustice. Personally, if it was me, I would have had a long talk with Victor the first time he did not ride my horse out to the finish. Secretariat was winning the Belmont by 31 lengths, but still Ron Turcotte rode the horse out to the finish. Victor is no Ron Turcotte. It's not a jockey's job to "save" a horse for a future race. It is his job to fully ride his horse from the break to the finish line, not from the break to about mid stretch.
So, you think Chrome could have won if Victor had ridden him on a loose reign?
You guys, I am sorry your favorite horse got beat, but he got beaten fair and square by a better horse on the day. You can't go back in time and erase the classic and re-run it. Chrome coasted and slowed down late as he has in all of his races, regardless of how precisely he was ridden. Did Victor hold him back in the Belmont Stakes? The 2014 Classic? The 2015 San Antonio? In the picture you posted the 2 horses are at different points in their stride, which accounts for some of the difference in jock and reign position.
He's a very good horse; I don't think he is in danger is losing HOY, however meaningless that award is. His body of work is the strongest this year.
To be clear I am not a "fan" of Arrogate... I am simply arguing that, objectively, the better horse won the race. Those that are heavily biased on the other side of the argument are going to have a hard time convincing me otherwise. ;)
And I do not disagree at all that the better horse on the day won and may have won even if Victor had delivered a better ride. My only suggestion was that Chrome could have been ridden better by his jockey, and he was not.
Quote from: peeptoad on November 15, 2016, 02:38:50 AM
The fractions (and the early pace) were faster in the Classic. The reason Chrome was able to open up in the Pac Classic is that he ran moderately slower opening quarter and half mile splits.
Following the SA track maintenance prior to the BC the times were markedly slower on dirt due to the addition of sand (there were multiple articles that mentioned this prior to the BC because Baffert, among others, wanted track maintenance to "tighten up" the track, which they didn't do). With this in mind, although the split times that Chrome set were overall were slightly faster in the Classic, the actual pace (not the raw time) was significantly faster due to the slower times as a result of the track being altered.
So, while Chrome might have been able to run yet even faster early on in the Classic than he already did ( a career best race, and faster than he ran in the Pac Classic) had he gone faster he most surely would have faltered and lost by even more.
1/4 1/2 STR FIN
PC: 24.09 23.93 24.47 24.44
Classic: 23.87 23.81 24.76 24.39
I may not have made my point clearly - I think Chrome went too fast early in the Classic, not too slow and with a slower track and the times this may have tired him out leaving him with what he needed to close out the race in the stretch.
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 15, 2016, 09:13:42 AM
And I do not disagree at all that the better horse on the day won and may have won even if Victor had delivered a better ride. My only suggestion was that Chrome could have been ridden better by his jockey, and he was not.
I may not have made my point clearly - I think Chrome went too fast early in the Classic, not too slow and with a slower track and the times this may have tired him out leaving him with what he needed to close out the race in the stretch.
Okay, the below sentence I thought was referring to the Pac Classic, but I guess not:
I also like that while his early fractions were a little quicker, his later fractions milder and more consistent. I agree that with the changes made to the SA track it's
possible he didn't handle the surface as well as the older, tighter strip. He may have gone too fast too early in the Classic, although he was only ahead by 1-1/2 lengths at most throughout, so maybe Victor rode him harder than it looks to the visible eye in order to maintain the lead. This would be at odds with what everyone is saying about him under-riding Chrome though.
Did you happen to catch Nick Hines on TVG this morning?
He was rehashing the whole thing and I could have been listening closer than I was.
But along with all the points about the ride that have already been mentioned, he did introduce me to one new angle...
Workouts before big races for CHROME have been like clockwork, consistently 7 days prior to raceday. Well what happened this time, the threat of rain moved the final work up two days, 9 days prior to the Classic.
So maybe the horse wasn't fully cranked and Victor did the best he could with a short horse not quite readied by Sherman ;)
It's all like picking flyshoot out of pepper, time to turn the page.
Quote from: stark on November 15, 2016, 11:23:02 AM
It's all like picking flyshoot out of pepper, time to turn the page.
:thumbsup:
Quote from: peeptoad on November 15, 2016, 11:27:21 AM
:thumbsup:
I dunno. With that photo CA Chrome posted, I'm thinking of writing a screenplay and turning it over to Oliver Stone. Foreign born baseball players are always fibbing about their age. Maybe Victor is really a lot older than we have been lead to believe and instead of preening for cameras the last 70 yards or so, he's really catching his breath. I gotta figure Victor may have been on the grassy knoll in Dallas. Stone's gonna love this. ;)
More conflicting opinions from around the world....
Japan racing officials have said they'd give Victor a 6 month suspension, while Kent D. compared it to drinking a light beer at Octoberfest in Germany.
Quote from: peeptoad on November 15, 2016, 05:31:13 AM
So, you think Chrome could have won if Victor had ridden him on a loose reign?
I pointed out exactly what Victor, himself, has said several times this year. Both after the Pacific Classic and the Awesome Again, for example, Victor said he geared Chrome down in the stretch to save the horse for the next race. When asked about this BEFORE the BCC, Art said it worried him that Chrome had won under wraps the last two races (PC and AA), and he wondered what would happen if Chrome had to run the last part of a race. Art wondered if Chrome would re-break. If you don't believe me about these interviews, I can go find the clips and post them here.
So you have Chrome, who was not ridden out in several of his races this year (and yes, you can see it in that photo), and you have Arrogate, who was specifically trained by Baffert after the Travers to close fast on the outside of a workmate. You have one jockey who is in the habit of slowing his horse down in late stretch against a jockey who rode the heck out of his horse in the BCC. Would the result have been any different if both jockeys rode their horses hard toward the wire? Who knows. I'm only pointing out the truth that Victor has had a habit of wrapping up and slowing Chrome to "save" him instead of riding the horse out to the wire.
I don't know when it became a thing for jockeys to wrap a horse up if the horse was winning by daylight, but it must be a relatively new phenomenon. Here is a link to Secretariat's official past performances. Note his Belmont (and other races where he won by daylight). Note that it says he won ridden out. http://www.secretariat.com/past-performances/ (http://www.secretariat.com/past-performances/) Victor has not been riding Chrome out in late stretch. He has been slowing the horse down. That is a form of training, but training the horse to slow down coming to the wire. That is what I believe happened in the BCC. Again, it's possible the outcome would have been the same, but we'll never know. My real point is that people who criticize Victor's ride have a valid point.
Quote from: CA_Chrome on November 15, 2016, 04:37:05 PM
1-I don't know when it became a thing for jockeys to wrap a horse up if the horse was winning by daylight,
2-My real point is that people who criticize Victor's ride have a valid point.
1) I personally watched the late great Willie Shoemaker do it 117 times on Whittingham mounts alone in the 70's.
2) So? Is the point worth something, anything? Can I make money wagering next time because of it? Can I take it Starbucks and get a discount?
Quote from: stark on November 15, 2016, 05:59:54 PM
1) I personally watched the late great Willie Shoemaker do it 117 times on Whittingham mounts alone in the 70's.
2) So? Is the point worth something, anything? Can I make money wagering next time because of it? Can I take it Starbucks and get a discount?
1) You must of only went on Wednesdays and Fridays. ;) In the '50's Shoe did it on Swaps. The point was then, to keep the racing sec. from loading too much weight on one of Tenney's or Charlie's horses. Now too much weight equates to 122 which is right around what most jocks tack. Oh the humanity!
2) I'm guessing the point is Chrome needs a better trainer? A lot of those Whittingham horses you saw Shoe stiff, er I mean ease up on late, were over achievers. Charlie got every ounce out of them. Except for Linda's Chief, who I think may have been cooked when Aaron Jones bought him, I don't ever remember wondering
what if when one of Whittingham's trainees retired. There's a lot to be said for good training. Without it it's all just potential and speculation.
Quote from: curtis on November 15, 2016, 06:25:47 PM
I'm guessing the point is Chrome needs a better trainer?
I don't mean to be disagreeable, Curtis, but that's just silly. The overall point is clear. (1) Victor, himself, said he was wrapping Chrome up late in races. (2) Art, himself, said he was concerned about that. (3) Baffert was very smartly training Arrogate to close fast from the outside. (4) In the Classic, Victor appeared to think he had the race won until Arrogate rushed up in late stretch. Victor had Chrome wrapped up and the horse began to slow down. Just as Art feared, Chrome did not "re-break" (as Art put it). None of this is an excuse, or a knock on the winner, or even negative. It is a simple collection of facts. Again, if none of that had happened, the race result might still have been the same -- or not. We can never know.
Quote from: stark on November 15, 2016, 05:59:54 PM
1) I personally watched the late great Willie Shoemaker do it 117 times on Whittingham mounts alone in the 70's.
Nice number and that's a great memory you have. You remember exactly 117 times you saw a particular jockey riding for a particular trainer ease a horse in late stretch approximately 40-45 years ago. I bow down to your amazing memory, or your amazing ability to take notes that you could whip out nearly half a century later.
:thanks:
CA Chrome, I'm guessing sarcasm in particular and humor in general are not your strong suits. Trainers say a lot of things. Often times it is meant to appease owners. Art said during the summer that he liked the way Chrome trained without laisix so much in Dubai, that he wasn't going to use it on him anymore, yet I've noticed that Chrome raced on it in his two races at Del Mar and two at Santa Anita. I've had some contact with Art over the years, he's a nice man. When he'd win a race, in that gravelly voice of his, he'd say, "Hee Hee Hee, Fooled 'em again." Was he telling me he juiced a horse or fixed a race? There is also a reason he's spent the majority of his career in no. CA living off of the crumbs left by Dorf. Before Chrome, his best horse was Siren Lure. Remember him? Art does fine, he knows how to keep a horse healthy and happy and that's most of it. Managing the jock is also part of it. Baffert has no trouble changing jocks. Bobby Frankel used to change them like socks. If Victor wasn't meeting his needs, there needed to be consequences. For the record, just so there is no misunderstanding, I don't think that Chrome needs a new trainer or jockey. He just ran the best race of his life. Be proud of him.
I agree. He did run the best race of his life. And I never have criticized the horse's performance at all.
He did as Victor instructed and ran his heart out. My only reservation was whether Victor rode the best race that he could. And I came down on the side that despite Chrome's career best performance Victor did not ride a perfect race. Now, hindsight is 20/20. And there is no evidence at all that had Victor changed his tactics that he would have won the race. But I think he could have finished closer to the winner.
That said, I agree there is absolutely no reason to change trainer or jockey.
Will Chrome be favored over Arrogate in the Pegasus?
If Arrogate gets the outside post,and CC the inside post, he should be!
Quote from: curtis on November 16, 2016, 09:49:15 AM
CA Chrome, I'm guessing sarcasm in particular and humor in general are not your strong suits.
LOL, true. I have a great sense of humor and can be as sarcastic as the next person, but when others are being humorous it does often go over my head -- especially in the one-dimensional internet medium.
I am very proud of Chrome (and Arrogate), but just am not comfortable with the idea of not riding a horse out to the finish. Once in a while, maybe, but not almost every race like Victor has been doing with Chrome much of the year. It essentially trains the horse to quit before the finish line and makes the jockey over-confident. Like I alluded to in an earlier post, if Ron Turcotte could ride Secretariat out when the horse was winning by 31 lengths, there's no excuse for easing a horse winning by a few lengths.
Oh, and I don't agree that the BCC was Chrome's best race. People say that because of speed figures, but in my estimation Chrome's best race was the Dubai World Cup. He won by 3 3/4 lengths over a stellar international field with his saddle slipped way back, and he set a stakes/track record in the process.
Nobody eased up as much as Mike Smith did aboard Songbird all year.
Did he too cost his horse a victory in the BC?
Quote from: stark on November 16, 2016, 01:42:15 PM
Will Chrome be favored over Arrogate in the Pegasus?
I do not see any way that Arrogate is not favored over California Chrome. He has two very strong wins. While many here see the Pegasus as a better race for Chrome to win (I am still undecided), I do not think the betting public will see it that way. For the most part, they see Arrogate in the mold of Secretariat and virtually unbeatable. That should change the odds to provide more value in taking Chrome. The only reason why Chrome may still be favored is because of his fans. But I do not think many of them bet.
Quote from: stark on November 16, 2016, 05:05:23 PM
Nobody eased up as much as Mike Smith did aboard Songbird all year.
Did he too cost his horse a victory in the BC?
It depends whether you believe that Songbird running harder in the Cotillion would have given her the extra inches she needed to be victorious.
By her performance it does not look like she was lacking at all, but in a race so close, who knows?
Anyone going to mention track configuration? Because that almost certainly had an impact as well at SA (and not in Arrogate's favor).
True.
A shorter stretch meant that Arrogate was likely to have more difficulty getting his big stride going which is exactly why a failure to accelerate on the lead and use Chrome's strengths to their fullest advantage may have been a decisive error. LOL
tighter turns too.
Okay I stop now. :tongue:
Short run to the clubhouse turn!!
Chrome didn't lose the race, his jockey did.
Quote from: afleetphil on November 18, 2016, 11:22:18 AM
Chrome didn't lose the race, his jockey did.
Or maybe it was the trainer being too confident and not having him fully cranked up.
Or maybe it was the accumulated effect of 7 races this year and lots of shipping.
Or maybe it was the 4 pounds he spotted that other younger horse.
Or maybe it was the lasix dosage just a little off.
Or maybe it was the cuppy track and the track maintenance crew.
Or maybe it was the workout regimen interrupted due to rain a week before the race.
Or maybe it was the other horse, hmmm!
Chrome was fully extended when Arrogate came to him,gave his all,but Arrogate just beat him.
I bet CC in that race BTW