Man o' Taz's 2015 Derby Dozen

[Man o Taz]

I just liked what Ocho did last year. I agreed with American Pharoah getting the Eclipse, but finishing the year I thought Ocho Ocho Ocho was the best horse.

If American Pharoah had not taken time off because of an injury I would have him up there.

I love him and I am so jealous you watch his gallops every morning at Santa Anita.

I am sorry that he'll be shipping out here so that neither of us will get to see his prep races.

To me he has the greatest potential to win the Triple Crown because he has such an efficient stride if he improves on his 2 year old form.

Dortmund I like, but I still wonder if the horses he has beaten are very good or just OK. I still do believe that this is another year where California has the edge on the East Coast in terms of top quality horses.

Ocho, AP, Dortmund, Lord Nelson, Bolo, Firing Line, Texas Red, Calculator, who was unfortunately hurt, and even Punctuate if he ever gets back to the track.

I do also believe that Mr. Baffert will win the Kentucky Derby this year. I think he has a very strong contingent.

[Man o Taz]

The next six weekends will tell it all regarding the Kentucky Derby field.

Six straight weekends of significant racing...starting with the Tampa Bay Derby, Gotham and San Felipe.

I was sorry to see that Far From Over will be skipping the Gotham but any piece of the points in the Wood should be enough to get him in the gate for the Kentucky Derby.

This makes the San Felipe the most interesting race on the upcoming card...

I really cannot see Dortmund going in this race. Other than keeping him fit it really serves no purpose...since his Robert Lewis win places him far ahead of the curve for the rest of the field for the race...I suppose it could be an Upstart like move but Lord Nelson is in desperate need of points to make the Derby. Dortmund being there could push him back in the field making his Derby prospects that much more difficult. However, Dortmund on the bench would make him among the top horses in the race.

Ocho, Ocho Ocho, Prospect Park and Bolo round out a strong field. 

[Man o Taz]

Well, so much for Dortmund not entering the San Felipe. It seems his owner said that he will participate.

Could he become the first horse since Pioneer of the Nile to win the Lewis, San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby?

We'll see.

[The Tin Man]

Well, so much for Dortmund not entering the San Felipe. It seems his owner said that he will participate.

Could he become the first horse since Pioneer of the Nile to win the Lewis, San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby?

We'll see.

Great news!

It's proven a very good route, as of late ... if I'm not mistaken, I'll Have Another and California Chrome both ran that sequence if races ... and it turned out pretty darn well for them! 

[Senator L]

My favorites taking that route and all 3 races
were Silver Charm and Free House and then Serrena's Song
joined them in the SA Derby - what a race :chickendance:

[peeptoad]

I'm curious to see what Bolo does on dirt... his connections seem to be wavering about whether or not he is actually on the Derby trail.
Dortmund should go off the deserving favorite no matter who else runs, but I['m still not entirely sold on him for 10F.

[Man o Taz]

Great news!

It's proven a very good route, as of late ... if I'm not mistaken, I'll Have Another and California Chrome both ran that sequence if races ... and it turned out pretty darn well for them! 

Actually, Chrome hit the San Felipe after his California Cup win for Cal breds with our Tamarando 2nd and I'll Have Another won the Lewis and skipped the San Felipe.

But, others have been successful at it.

If you have a horse that ready to go - send him. I think this start will be a maintenance one for him - kind of like the Florida Derby for Orb and the Fountain of Youth for Upstart - he does not need to win the race - you want him to sharpen in his next one - the race before the Derby.

And looking at my Derby list - 3 of my top 4 have yet to start this year LOL.

That will change in the next 2 weeks - but maybe I am not that impressed with the starters so far this year. I would have been more on Texas Red's bandwagon IF he did not miss his second start.

I'm curious to see what Bolo does on dirt... his connections seem to be wavering about whether or not he is actually on the Derby trail.
Dortmund should go off the deserving favorite no matter who else runs, but I['m still not entirely sold on him for 10F.

Me too. I wanted to add him to my list and was going to until he got pulled from dirt works...

Dortmund is interesting. He is so big - but so is Wise Dan and he's a miler though so was Frankel and we saw how his talent allowed him to stretch out.

And here is the latest Haskin Derby Dozen...

And Steve's latest  list...

1. American Pharoah
2. Dortmund
3. Carpe Diem
4. Upstart
5. Texas Red
5. Firing Line
6. Far From Over
8. Lord Nelson
9. Itsaknockout
10. Ocean Knight
11. Ocho Ocho Ocho
12. International Star

Bolo and Prospect Park on the cusp. 

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2015/03/03/derby-dozen-march-3-2015-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx

What to do about Frosted?

I think he needs to be sent elsewhere. He is a talented horse. He finished well in the Remsen. He was 2nd in the Holy Bull. But perhaps send him to the Louisiana Derby or the Spiral Stakes for his final prep.

[curtis]

My favorites taking that route and all 3 races
were Silver Charm and Free House and then Serrena's Song
joined them in the SA Derby - what a race :chickendance:

Well sort of....  Free House and Silver Charm prepped for the San Felipe in the San Vicente as opposed to the Lewis which in those days was known as the Santa Catalina.  In the Santa Anita Derby they were joined by Sharp Cat with whom Silver Charm dueled on the lead before she gave way and Free House took over to duel with Silver Charm and out nod him.  Great race, I was there and remember it well.

[Raven]

Well,my two for the Derby are
Upstart
Dortmund

One that I like to add for third is Classy Class who is running Saturday at Aqueduct in the Gotham.
I

[peeptoad]

Prospect Park might be the price play in the San Felipe... unless Lord Nelson somehow can improve going 2 turns. Dortmund still the most likely winner, but I would take a chance with PP for a better payout.

[Senator L]

Well sort of....  Free House and Silver Charm prepped for the San Felipe in the San Vicente as opposed to the Lewis which in those days was known as the Santa Catalina.  In the Santa Anita Derby they were joined by Sharp Cat with whom Silver Charm dueled on the lead before she gave way and Free House took over to duel with Silver Charm and out nod him.  Great race, I was there and remember it well.

Thanks for the help...should have remembered Sharp Cat she was a good one.
You were there must have been awesome. One of my all time favorite races

[curtis]

Thanks for the help...should have remembered Sharp Cat she was a good one.
You were there must have been awesome. One of my all time favorite races

I believe that Sharp Cat was the last horse to run an official walkover when she won the Bayakoa at Hollywood Park in 1997.  There was some good racing going on in those days and because I was teaching high school at the time I had weekends free and got to see a lot of it live.  I remember Siphon beating Sandpit and Gentlemen in that year's Big 'Cap to give Papa Mandella a sweep of the trifecta.

[Man o Taz]

A lot of movement...I am not sold on Prospect Park yet but those Cal-based horses are looking stronger and stronger week in and week out.

Its funny - each week I think the results will clarify the Derby options and they just seem to become murkier and murkier except for Dortmund who seems to be stepping up.

1. American Pharoah (Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker – Littleprincessemama by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat) 60
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (50)
G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G1 Del Mar Futurity, 7 furlongs

This week is "go" time. If he performs as well as his works have been this race could be special.

2. Dortmund (Big Brown by Boundary – Our Josephina by Tale Of The Cat) 70
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 Furlongs (50)
G3 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

He answered the one question I had about him - could he show that he can best other horses besides Firing Line and Mr. Z. A strong field in the San Felipe.

3. Upstart (Flatter by A.P. Indy - by Touch Gold 36
Trainer: Richard Violette
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
2nd G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs (20)
G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs (10)
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (2)
2nd G1 Champagne Stakes, 8 furlongs (4)
Funny Cide Stakes, 6.5 furlongs

Is he going in the Wood or the Florida Derby. I heard he left Florida and then he didn't.

4. Carpe Diem (Giants Causeway by Storm Cat – Rebridled Dreams – Unbridled Song) 64
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G1 Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs.
G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 9 furlongs (50)
2nd G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (4)
G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (10)

5. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense by Street Cry – Winner by South African Triple Crown winner Horse Chestnut) 10
Trainer: James Cassidy
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
7th G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Delta Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, 6.5 furlongs (10)

He had some rust to shake off. Let's see how far he moves up his next outing.

I do not think he liked the Santa Anita surface. He was tight early and never seemed to get comfortable. I would be interested to hear what Mike Smith had to say.

6. Far From Over (Blame by Arch—Alchemist, by A.P. Indy) 10
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs/G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)

I did not like skipping the Gotham. He is mature beyond his experience, but I question his fitness for the Derby. Can he do it? Maybe. However, he will not be as fit as horses like Dortmund, Upstart, International Star, and El Kabeir.

6. Texas Red (Afleet Alex by Northern Afleet – Rematuelle by Jeune Homme by Nureyev) 12
Trainer: Keith Desormaeaux
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby/G1 Arkansas Derby
2nd G2 San Vicente, 7 furlolngs
G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (2)

If he is not back galloping by this week, he will be dropped since I see little chance of him making the gate in the Kentucky Derby because of fitness issues. 

8. Bold Conquest (Curlin by Smart Strike – One For Jim by Distorted Humor) 17
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Next Race: G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
3rd G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
G3 Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (1)
3rd G1 Breeders Cup Futurity, 8.5 furlongs (2)
G3 Iroquois Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)

He made his first start of 2015 and appeared to be closing well. He needs to move forward.

10. Competitive Edge (Super Saver by Maria's Mon – Magdalena's Choice by Cape Town)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs?
G1 Hopeful Stakes, 7 furlongs

He's still here waiting for the 1st start.

9. El Kabeir (Scat Daddy by Johannesberg - Great Venue by Unbridled Song) (74) 
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
G2 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (50)
2nd G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (4)
G3 Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs (10)
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G3 Nashua Stakes, 8 furlongs
4th G1 Champagne Stakes, 1 mile

He won it in impressive fashion. The field was not as strong as it might have been, but he won easily putting his Withers loss in the rearview mirror.

10. Lord Nelson (Pulpit by A.P. Indy - African Jade by Seeking the Gold)6
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
4th G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs (5)
G2 San Vicente, 7 furlongs
5th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs 
Speakeasy Stakes, 6 furlongs
4th G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (1)

11.  Frosted (Tapit by Pulpit – Fast Cookie by Deputy Minisiter) 13
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
4th, G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs (5)
2nd G3 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs (4)
2nd G1 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (4)

What to do with Frosted? Had to drop him some. The track was tiring. Gulfstream Park overcompensated. Frosted may have won had this been the same track he ran over on for the Holy Bull.

12.International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus by Mr. Prospector - Parlez by French Deputy) (71)
Trainer: MIchael Maker
Next Race: G2 Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs (50)
G3 Lecomte, 8 furlongs (10)
4th G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs
9th Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
G3 Grey Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
2nd G2 With Anticipation Stakes, 8 furlongs
Rockville Centre, 6 furlongs

Have to mention this son of FuPeg at this point. He is really moving forward.

Honorable Mentions

Ocean Knight (Curlin by Smart Strike - Ocean by Stormy Atlantic by Storm Cat)
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial
G2 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs
Sam F. Davis, 8.5 furlongs

Well, this was his surface and he through in a clunker. That happens. We'll see how he does next outing, but he has 0 Derby points.

Classy Class (Discreetly Mine by Mineshaft –Collegiate by Saarland) 13
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Next Race: G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
3rd G3 Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (10)
3rd G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (2)
4th G2 Remsen Stakes, 9 furlongs (1)

Can he move forward enough his next outing to make it into the Derby field?

Bolo (Temple City by Dynaformer - Aspen Mountain by Chief Seattle by Seattle Slew) 10
Trainer: Carla Gaines
Next Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
3rd G2 San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Eddie Logan Stakes, 1 mile

He finished third so either he hated the dirt and still ran well or he had no problem with it. Can he move forward in a crowded and strong California-based Derby crop?

He seemed like he had a ton of run in him and that dirt was no problem at all.

Itsaknockout (Lemon Drop Kid by Kingmambo - Stormy B by Cherokee Run (50)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
1st by DQ Fountain of Youth Stakes, 8.5 furlongs (50)

Love his pedigree. He has the points. He just needs to move forward. Will there be anyone in the Florida Derby to take him on?

Acceptance (Vronsky by Danzig – Allswellthatnswell by Perfect Mandate)
Trainer: Donald Warren
Next Race: San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
4th California Cup, 8.5 furlongs
King Glorious Stakes
Golden State Juvenile Stakes

This will be his last chance to shine.

[Raven]

Upstart is going to the FL Derby.

[The Tin Man]

I spoke with Jim Cassidy at Clocjer's Sunday morning ... he said Ocho got a bunch of cuts and scratches out of the gate on Saturday ... so he said that race us a throw out.

Nothing major though. Damn shame, as I was really looking forward to his race.