2015 Breeders Cup Classic

[Senator L]

The more people throw out Smooth Roller the more I like him  :chickendance:0
I'm thinking I'll have to go 6 deep in the classic for pick4's and pick 6's

[Man o Taz]

Well, I think Smooth Roller is headed to the Classic, like it or not.

I agree it may be a stretch for him in that he would be 6th or 7th choice, but I believe his connections see a top challenger coming back into form in Shared Belief which could change everything in SoCal...so they will bite at the apple while they can. The most important issue is consistency. This has been the real problem with a lot of older horses this year particularly in California - they throw in a brilliant race and then a clunker. Honor Code has been the only consistent older horse and he has one route race.

[Senator L]

I don't know about that  - American Pharoah, Beholder,
Liams Map all run lights out all the time imo
p.s. smooth roller too

[peeptoad]

The more people throw out Smooth Roller the more I like him  :chickendance:0
I'm thinking I'll have to go 6 deep in the classic for pick4's and pick 6's

Get your chickens ready, folks!!   :chickendance: :chickendance: :chickendance:

I don't begrudge Smooth Roller's connections at all for wanting to go cLassic. May as well strike when you have a horse (they get injured often enough), but he's a horse I likely won't be touching.

[Man o Taz]

I don't know about that  - American Pharoah, Beholder,
Liams Map all run lights out all the time imo
p.s. smooth roller too

I was talking older horses and particularly in Cali - and there has not been a consistent graded stakes winning horse all year since Shared Belief left other than Catch A Flight.

Other than Honor Code who has won 3 graded stakes, there has not been another multiple route graded stakes winner in the older horse ranks, has there?

Granted, Liam's Map has performed well in his two graded stakes efforts, but he is a relatively new commodity.

The other horses - Race Day, Noble Bird, etc. have not done much. But I should also mention Tonalist. He is a horse that has been very consistent. He has just not been able to win since his effort in  the Westchester.

[peeptoad]

What happened to Catch a Flight anyway? Is he on hiatus or training up to the BC?
Nevermind, just read that he was injured (condylar) and is getting a few months off. The Dirt Mile will be weaker for his absence.

[curtis]

Well, I think Smooth Roller is headed to the Classic, like it or not.

I agree it may be a stretch for him in that he would be 6th or 7th choice, but I believe his connections see a top challenger coming back into form in Shared Belief which could change everything in SoCal...so they will bite at the apple while they can. The most important issue is consistency. This has been the real problem with a lot of older horses this year particularly in California - they throw in a brilliant race and then a clunker. Honor Code has been the only consistent older horse and he has one route race.

I'm sure Victor Garcia isn't reading this forum to see what I or anyone else thinks he should do with his horse, nor should he.  To me, throwing Smooth Roller into the Classic is: How to Ruin a Potentially Good Horse 101.  If he were mine he'd go in the Dirt Mile but he isn't.  Since Garcia doesn't tell me what to do with my horses, he can do as he sees fit with his.  As for Shared Belief, he's been off since April with a broken bone and hasn't even recorded a work yet.  I wouldn't worry about him until he gives me something to worry about.  I hope he comes back better than ever but that's always a crapshoot.

I think you're being a little hard on the California based older horses.  Hoppertunity has been consistent, he's just limited.  Catch A Flight has been consistent, but he really is most effective from 8-9f and now unfortunately he's going to be out for awhile.  Hard Aces has run consistent races.  The Gold Cup--even though it was glacier like down the stretch--was tough on him and he bounced in the Pacific Classic.  He didn't really run terrible on Saturday.  Because of the slow pace they had to move him earlier than he would like and that did him in in the stretch.  The two most brilliant performers out here this year have been Shared Belief and Beholder.  California Chrome ran well the one time he ran here.  The others just aren't in that league when those horses are right.

[Man o Taz]

I think you and peeptoad make excellent points regarding Smooth Roller.

It is just so hard to pass up this once in a lifetime chance given how quickly fate can change in horse racing.

You are right. Shared Belief may not come back the same, but I bet this has to be in the back of Garcia's mind. SB is a world beater. If he comes back a shadow of himself he could still be very good. If he comes back back to his top form or better then others have no chance. It is true he has not worked yet, but he is galloping and he is targeting a December return. We know schedules can be pushed back all the time, but I am only saying it could be a valid consideration.

You may be right. The California horses have been more consistent than I have said, but none have won multiple stakes races other than Catch A Flight. They may finish in the money or on the board most times, but cannot get up for that win. And as you note they are not the strongest contingent and, other than Beholder and Shared Belief, have not been running the strongest speed figures. I am the first to try and defend the California contingent, but I just do not see them as very strong this year. Who knows? Maybe Hoppertunity will reprise his win in the Clark. 

I was not surprised with Honor Code's performance, but was disappointed slightly. The track was very sticky. He did not like it and performed that way. Soft fractions up front did not help, but I do not think the weight or the pace were what got him beat. It was a combination of the track and his attitude. He did not seem at his best in the paddock and beforehand.

Kudos to Tonalist who many suggested would move up with a sloppy track which was how he won the Peter Pan.

I do not think the weekend results really changed anything for the BC Classic field though Wicked Strong put in one of his best performances of the year:

American Pharoah - Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker by Unbridled by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector and Littleprincessemma by Yankee Gentleman by Storm Cat by Storm Bird

Beholder - Henny Hughes by Hennessy by Storm Cat and Leslie's Lady by Tricky Creek by Clever Trick by Icecapade by Nearctic

Coach Inge - Big Brown by Boundary by Danzig and Touch Too Much by Holy Bull by Great Above by Minnesota Mac (another John Nerud)

Constitution - Tapit and Baffled by Distorted Humor by Forty Niner

Effinex - Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and What A Pear by E Dubai by Mr. Prospector 

Frosted - Tapit by Pulpit by A.P. Indy and Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister by Vice Regent by Northern Dancer 

Gleneagles - Galileo by Sadler's Wells by Northern Dancer and You'resothrilling by Storm Cat

Honor Code - A.P. Indy by Seattle Slew and Serena's Cat by Storm Cat

Keen Ice - Curlin by Smart Strike by Mr. Prospector and Medomak by Awesome Again by Deputy Minister

Liam's Map - Unbridled's Song and Miss Macy Sue by Trippi by End Sweep by Forty Niner by Mr. Prospector

Smooth Roller - Hard Spun by Danzig by Northern Dancer and Catch The Moment by Unbridled by Fappiano by Mr. Prospector

Tonalist - Tapit by Pulpit and Settling Mist by Pleasant Colony by His Majesty by Ribot

Wicked Strong - Hard Spun and Moyne Abbey by Charismatic by Summer Squall by Storm Bird by Northern Dancer 

I do find it very interesting that potentially 4 horses are training up to the Classic. Dale Romans had hinted at entering Keen Ice in the JCGC, but probably reconsidered it with the weather the way it was. Gleneagles also may run in the Champion Stakes I think...

Do you know that Jimmy Jerkens finishing back-to-back is becoming a bit of a routine since last year's Travers Stakes?

2014 Travers - 1st V.E. Day, 2nd Wicked Strong
2015 Whitney Stakes - 4th Wicked Strong, 5th V.E. Day
2015 Woodward Stakes - 3rd Wicked Strong, 4th Effinex
2015 Jockey Club Gold Cup - 2nd Wicked Strong, 3rd Effinex

The Jerkens barn is doing incredible work.

[Man o Taz]

http://www.timesunion.com/tuplus-sports/article/Travers-winner-still-needs-a-jockey-for-Breeders-6554939.php
I think more than any other horse, Honor Code needs Castellano. Liam's Map has done well without him. Keen Ice can get Desormeaux. But Honor Code, with his headstrong temperament, needs him.

http://www.drf.com/events/breeders-cup-classic

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2015/10/05/questions-facing-bc-classic-horses.aspx

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/Floridaf/Breeders_Cup_Classic_2015_Beholder_seeks_to_become_2nd_female_winner_123

http://www.timesunion.com/sports/article/Breeders-Cup-Classic-is-next-for-Tonalist-Honor-6548461.php

[afleetphil]

At this point in time I'll go with

1./ American Pharoah
2./ Tonalist
3./ Keen Ice

[curtis]

http://www.timesunion.com/tuplus-sports/article/Travers-winner-still-needs-a-jockey-for-Breeders-6554939.php
I think more than any other horse, Honor Code needs Castellano. Liam's Map has done well without him. Keen Ice can get Desormeaux. But Honor Code, with his headstrong temperament, needs him.

http://www.drf.com/events/breeders-cup-classic

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2015/10/05/questions-facing-bc-classic-horses.aspx

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/Floridaf/Breeders_Cup_Classic_2015_Beholder_seeks_to_become_2nd_female_winner_123

http://www.timesunion.com/sports/article/Breeders-Cup-Classic-is-next-for-Tonalist-Honor-6548461.php

Castellano has to consider whether giving up the mount on Keen Ice--a horse who will likely run next year--is prudent.  Honor Code is likely to be done after the BC.  I don't like either horse's chances in the Classic but they do have some chance so it's a bit of a dilemma for him.  Looking at the big picture, I'd stick with Keen Ice.  Liam's Map is going in the Dirt Mile-ish so in that case, the problem is solved.

[Senator L]

I think when choosing between horses, a lot depends on the trainers/owners
I can't see Castellano getting off Pletcher and going on Romans

[peeptoad]

Well, there goes Honor Code's pace maker...

[Man o Taz]

I think when choosing between horses, a lot depends on the trainers/owners
I can't see Castellano getting off Pletcher and going on Romans

Is Liam's Map retiring after this year?

I could see Javier going off Pletcher for McGaughey. Romans does race on the East coast, but McGaughey runs at the tracks where Javier is based. It will be interesting to see where he goes, but I think he will stay on Honor Code.

In fact, he was quoted post Kelso saying something like, "I can't wait for the mile and a quarter with him."

So we shall see.

Well, there goes Honor Code's pace maker...

True, though Bayern made the pace with pretty slow numbers in the BC Classic last year so Liam's Map may have just tried to duplicate that performance.

Pace may come from a combination of American Pharoah, Beholder, Smooth Roller, and Wicked Strong.

We shall see. It will be interesting to see if Coach Inge is entered. He is nominated. 

[curtis]

I think when choosing between horses, a lot depends on the trainers/owners
I can't see Castellano getting off Pletcher and going on Romans

He wouldn't be, Pletcher solved the problem for him.