2014 G1 Breeders Cup Classic

[Man o Taz]

My fear is that Moreno will rate thinking he will have the kick - giving Bayern a loose lead on a speed favoring track and he'll just be uncatchable - which is fine - he's a talented horse.

I think it will be tough work for Mike Smith, Joel Rosario and Victor Espinosa. They have to watch closely how the track is playing - whether the rail is live - and how close to the pace they need to be to win. Greg Wolf said that he really likes California Chrome, but he does not think he will win because as a warrior he likes to race and one race - especially one where he finished sixth - will not be enough to prepare him for this tough test. He has been training very well - so I am optimistic if he gets an OUTSIDE trip that he can do it. Its where he goes inside that he has lost - though we all know that the Belmont Stakes there was an excuse with the grabbed quarter at the start. Mike Smith also has to know where to place his horse. He cannot be too far back if he wants to catch Bayern, but if he is too close to the pace he could get burned out - OR NOT.

By far this is Shared Belief's toughest test competition wise. Many are giving the lightly raced Toast of New York a lot of credit based upon his second place finish on polytrack in the Pacific Classic. However, he has never raced on dirt. And training on a dirt like surface to me leaves a big question mark.

Tonalist also appears a big question mark as well. He did break his maiden at Gulfstream Park going 9 furlongs, and then finish second in a tough field where the impressive Constitution was the victor. However, since then he did not do well at Saratoga. To me, Santa Anita does not play like Belmont Park at all. Its not a sandy track with big sweeping turns. So this race will be a question mark.

It will be interesting to see if Big Cazanova makes the race since he can also put some pressure on Bayern. If not, I think Bayern will be left to his own devices on the front end and he'll bring it home. He is bred to get 10 furlongs on the bottom. We'll see if those gene are predominant. He failed his last 10 furlong outing as I thought he might given the nature of the Saratoga track which is much more tiring. Santa Anita's is more forgiving.

The Watchmaker article should come into play as well - will there be a bias or will the track play more honestly.

[Man o Taz]

Bayern*
G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs, 110 BSF
10th G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs
G1 Haskell Stakes, 9 furlongs, 110 BSF
G2 Woody Stephens, 7 furlongs, 107 BSF
9th G1 Preakness Stakes, 9.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Derby Trial, 8 furlongs
3rd G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs

Works:
10/26 5 furlongs,     59.8
10/20 6 furlongs, 1:12.2
10/13 5 furlongs,     58.4
10/8   4 furlongs,     47.2
9/14   5 furlongs,     58.6
9/8     5 furlongs, 1:00.2

California Chrome*
6th G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs
4th G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs
G1 Preakness Stakes, 9.5 furlongs, BSF 105
G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs, BSF 97
G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs, BSF 107
G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs, BSF 108
California Cup, 8.5 furlongs

Works:
10/25 5 furlongs,    59.6 (gallop out 6 furlongs in 1:12)
10/18 6 furlongs, 1:12.2
10/11 5 furlongs,    59:6
10/4   4 furlongs,    47.4
9/13   6 furlongs, 1:13.8
9/6     6 furlongs, 1:10.2

Candy Boy
3rd G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd G3 Los Alamitos Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd West Virginia Derby, 9 furlongs
13th G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
3rd G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

Works:
10/25 7 furlongs, 1:25
10/18 6 furlongs, 1:10.4
10/11 5 furlongs, 1:00.8
10/4   4 furlongs,    47.8
9/14    6 furlongs, 1:13.4

Cigar Street
Homecoming Classic Stakes, 9 furlongs
2nd Allowance, 9 furlongs
G3 Skip Away, 9.5 furlongs
Allowance, 9 furlongs

Works:
10/26 4 furlongs,    48.08
10/19 5 furlongs,    59.72
10/13 4 furlongs,    47.58
9/22   5 furlongs, 1:01.47
9/15   4 furlongs      49.89

Footbridge
3rd G1 Awesome Again Stakes, 9 furlongs
2nd San Diego Handicap, 8.5 furlongs

Works:
10/27 5 furlongs, 1:00.20
10/20 6 furlongs, 1:13
10/13 5 furlongs,    59
10/6   4 furlongs,    48
9/22   5 furlongs, 1:00.40
9/15   7 furlongs, 1:25.80

Imperative
5th G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs
3rd, Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs, BSF 107
8th San Diego Handicap, 9 furlongs
3rd G1 Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
G2 Charles Town Classic, 9 furlongs, BSF 107
7th G1 Santa Anita Handicap, 10 furlongs
2nd G2 San Antonio Handicap, 9 furlongs
2nd Allowance, 8 furlongs

Works:
10/23 6 furlongs, 1:12.20
10/15 5 furlongs,     59.80
10/8   4 furlongs,     49.20
9/21   5 furlongs, 1:00
9/13   5 furlongs, 1:00.20

Majestic Harbor
4th G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs
6th G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs
G1 Gold Cup, 10 furlongs, BSF 111
3rd G2 Californian, 9 furlongs
G3 Tokyo City, 12 furlongs
4th G2 San Antonio, 9 furlongs
2nd G2 San Pasquale, 8.5 furlongs

Works:
10/26 4 furlongs,    48.60
10/20 6 furlongs, 1:11.20
10/14 5 furlongs, 1:00.80
10/8   4 furlongs,     48.80
9/21   5 furlongs, 1:00.40
9/15   4 furlongs,    48.80

Moreno*
11th G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
2nd G1 Woodward Stakes, 9 furlongs, BSF 108
G1 Whitney, 9 furlongs, BSF 109

Works:
10/24 6 furlongs, 1:12.60
10/11 4 furlongs,     50
9/20   5 furlongs, 1:03.31

Prayer For Relief
3rd G1 Woodward Stakes, 9 furlongs
4th G1 Whitney Stakes, 9 furlongs
3rd G2 Suburban Stakes, 10 furlongs
8th G1 Stephen Foster, 9 furlongs
2nd G3 Pimlico Special, 9.5 furlongs
4th G2 New Orleans Handicap, 9 furlongs
6th G3 Mineshaft, 8.5 furlongs

Works:
10/25 4 furlongs,    47.40
10/18 5 furlongs,    59
10/12 5 furlongs, 1:01.60
9/20   5 furlongs,    58.44
9/12   5 furlongs, 1:01.14

Shared Belief*
G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs, 101 BSF
G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs, 115 BSF
G2 Los Alamitos Derby, 9 furlongs, 104 BSF

Works:
10/28 4 furlongs,    52.40
10/21 6 furlongs, 1:14.40
10/14 5 furlongs, 1:00.60
10/7   4 furlongs,    50.80
9/23   4 furlongs,    47.60
9/16   6 furlongs, 1:15.20
9/10   5 furlongs, 1:02.40
9/4     4 furlongs,    50.20

I don't know much about Shared Beliefs works, but that does not look like a sharp time coming into the BC Classic.

I think being pressed, Shared Belief may have had a lot taken out of him in the G1 Awesome Again.

Does anyone have the time of his last work before the Pacific Classic?

Toast of New York
2nd G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs, BSF 111
6th G1 Belmont Derby, 10 furlongs
G2 UAE Derby, 9.5 furlongs

Tonalist*
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs, BSF 106
3rd, G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs
2nd G2 Jim Dandy, 9 furlongs
G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs, BSF 100
G2 Peter Pan, 9 furlongs, BSF 104

Works:
10/25 5 furlongs, 1:01.85
10/19 5 furlongs,1:00.57
10/13 5 furlongs,1:03.04
9/22   5 furlongs, 1:00.09
9/15   6 furlongs, 1:14.71

VE Day*
5th G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs, BSF 102
Curlin Stakes, 9 furlongs

Works:
10/28  4 furlongs,    48.60
10/21 7 furlongs, 1:27.25
10/14 4 furlongs,    49.89
9/22   5 furlongs, 1:00.69
9/15   7 furlongs, 1:28.30

Zivo
2nd G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
G1 Woodward Stakes, 9 furlongs
G2 Suburban Stakes, 10 furlongs
Commentator, 8 furlongs
Kings Point, 8.5 furlongs
Whodam, 8 furlongs

Works:
10/26 5 furlongs, 1:00.90
10/18 5 furlongs, 1:01.53
10/10 5 furlong,  1:01.96
9/20   5 furlongs,   59.50
9/13   4 furlongs,   49.44

Note:: "*" signifies Man o' Taz HOTY Contender

[Man o Taz]

Footbridge some have described as a live long shot.

I think he represents the best chance (perhaps only) for Street Cry to get another BC winner this year.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2014/10/26/haskin-s-breeders-cup-classic-report-don-t-overlook-imperative.aspx

[Man o Taz]

RACE 12 BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC (GRADE I)   POST TIME - 5:35 PM

ENTRIES PLUS PPS & SELECTIONS
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super High Five

Santa Anita Park STAKES

Purse $5,000,000. For Three-Year-Olds And Upward. Northern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 122 Lbs.; Older, 126 Lbs.; Southern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 117 Lbs.; Older, 126 Lbs. All Fillies and Mares allowed 3 Lbs. $50,000 to pre-enter, $50,000 to enter, with guaranteed $5 million purse including travel awards of which 55% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 10% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth; plus travel awards to starters not based in California. One And One Fourth Miles.
P#   PP   Horse   Virtual

Stable   A/S   Med   Jockey   Wgt   Trainer   M/L

1   Prayer for Relief (KY)   6/H   L   I Ortiz, Jr.   126   D L Romans   30/1
2   Cigar Street (KY)      5/H   L   J R Velazquez   126   W I Mott   12/1
3   Imperative (KY)      4/G   L   L Dettori           126   G Papaprodromou   30/1
4   Moreno (KY)              4/G   L   J Castellano   126   E J Guillot   20/1
5   V. E. Day (KY)              3/C   L   J Talamo           122   J A Jerkens   20/1
6   Shared Belief (KY)      3/G   L   M E Smith   122   J Hollendorfer   9/5
7   Bayern (KY)              3/C   L   M Garcia           122   B Baffert   6/1
8   Zivo (NY)                      5/H   L   J Lezcano           126   C C Brown   15/1
9   Toast of New York (KY)   3/C   L   J P Spencer   122   J Osborne   12/1
10   Footbridge (KY)      4/C   L   R Bejarano   126   E G Harty   30/1
11   Tonalist (KY)              3/C   L   J Rosario           122   C Clement   5/1
12   Candy Boy (KY)      3/C   L   C S Nakatani   122   J W Sadler   20/1
13   California Chrome (CA)   3/C   L   V Espinoza   122   A Sherman   4/1
14   Majestic Harbor (KY)   6/H   L   T Baze           126   S McCarthy   20/1

Also Eligibles:
15   Big Cazanova (ARG)   5/R   L   E Trujillo            126   P Miller   30/1

Owners: 1 - Zayat Stables, LLC; 2 - Jake Ballis & Rashard Lewis; 3 - KM Racing Enterprise, Inc.; 4 - Southern Equine Stable, LLC; 5 - Magalen O. Bryant; 6 - Jungle Racing, LLC, KMN Racing, LLC, Hollendorfer, Litt, Solis II & Todaro; 7 - Kaleem Shah, Inc.; 8 - Thomas Coleman; 9 - Michael Buckley; 10 - Godolphin Racing, LLC; 11 - Robert S. Evans; 12 - C R K Stable; 13 - Steve Coburn & Perry Martin; 14 - Gallant Stable, LLC; 15 - Dona Licha, Gary Barber, Brous Stable & Wachtel Stable

Breeders: 1 - G. R. Aschinger; 2 - Marvin Delfiner, Ted Folkerth &Brookdale; 3 - Glencrest Farm LLC & Darley; 4 - Southern Equine Stables, LLC; 5 - Bluegrass Hall, LLC; 6 - Pam and Martin Wygod; 7 - Helen Alexander; 8 - Thomas Coleman; 9 - Ashleigh Stud, Frank Ramos & JackieRamos; 10 - Darley; 11 - Woodslane Farm; 12 - Lee Searing & Susan Searing; 13 - Perry Martin & Steve Coburn; 14 - Liberation Farm & Brandywine Farm; 15 - Haras de La Pomme

Well, behind as we usually are on our TV watching of races we just watched September 27th racing coverage...and Mr. Hollendorfer made some interesting comments regarding Shared Belief not liking the Santa Anita track as much as he has liked the synthetic tracks.

I think this speaks to a serious potential vulnerability for Shared Belief.

We know he has not faced the toughest competition - the best route horses in the country - those are the three year olds Bayern, California Chrome, Tonalist and perhaps V.E. Day - and perhaps Zivo.

Being able to take them all on will be interesting.

I continue to look at who is going to challenge Bayern and I do not think its going to be Moreno which makes me think that he could be let loose with fractions of 24 or more early which means he'll be gone. Mr. Baffert called him the "Little Dude". He runs just like Game On Dude. Give him an easy first half/mile and he can close the deal EVEN at 10 furlongs.

Moreno I think is going to lay just off him maybe 2 furlongs back and there will be the rest of the field. They'll never catch Bayern.

As a result, I think Candy Boy and California Chrome will be the only ones with a chance to beat him because only he has the acceleration potential - remember Shared Belief is not totally comfortable over the track - I expect him to get 3rd...on his talent...and Chrome first or second. Candy Boy will give an effort but fall short because he is just not fast enough.

Tonalist and V.E. Day are just not fast enough. The only reason Tonalist was able to win the Belmont Stakes was he was fresh and California Chrome had been stepped on by Matterhorn and had to run 12 furlongs with a pulled quarter in shocking pain. 

[Senator L]

Moreno is going for the lead. The trainer has said he thinks Bayern folds when looked in the eye. So expect
a 23 and under 46 and under 1:10 and under splits. Then handicap who folds and who will pick up the pieces
Just the way I see it :chickendance: I'm starting to think Bayern will sit off Moreno's flank because of
the outside post

[Man o Taz]

We'll see. There is no way that Moreno goes 23 and wins the race. His only chance is to keep it around 24 like Bayern wants it.

I think Mr. Guillot has been doing some talking and wants everyone to believe that Moreno goes after Bayern - but then when everyone sits back so will Moreno because its the different between being a spoiler and a winner in my mind. 

Bayern I believe is like Game On Dude, without the easy lead he folds - but that was the immature Bayern at the beginning of the year. The mature Bayern may be different. It will be fun to see. A fast pace sets it up for the closers and really makes it exciting.

I think Candy Boy may be up front early too.

[Man o Taz]

 
California Chrome, Shared Belief, Bayern and Zivo

[Senator L]

Shared Belief over Tonalist for me :chickendance:
Good luck

[Man o Taz]

While he topped my Kentucky Derby list and I am still a big fan, I have the following reservations regarding Shared Belief:

-Mr. Hollendorfer indicated that he did not like the Santa Anita surface as well as the Del Mar surface at the conclusion of the Awesome Again.
-His final work seemed very slow, 52.4. This is why I am trying to see what his final work for the Pacific Classic was. His work before the Awesome Again was much sharper, 47.6. Thus, it seems to me that the Awesome Again may have taken something out of him.
-He has never faced top, in form, dirt horses before. Candy Boy is a good horse - but when they met in the Los Alamitos Derby, I do not believe that he was nearly as sharp as he is now. Toast of New York is another talented horse, but he is a synthetic specialist like Shared Belief. 
-He has never faced a field as large as this one in a race. 
-We do not know whether the track is going to have a speed bias, or not. This could factor strongly into Shared Belief's ability to close.

[afleetphil]

This should be a fascinating race. It will be interesting to watch the cat and mouse game between Bayern and Moreno early in the race. Which one of them goes for the lead. I like California Chrome here. He breaks from post 13 so he won't be boxed in and he has the acceleration to beat the tiring Bayern and Moreno down the stretch.

[Man o Taz]

As good an assessment of the race as I have read so far.

It all depends on how Shared Belief manages over the track facing top dirt horses for the first time.

[afleetphil]

Yup, Shared Belief is the wildcard here. Will he like the track. Can he compete with quality dirt horses. Maybe. Maybe not. Guess we'll know in a couple of days.

The Breeders Cup will be good therapy for me after losing Z 14 yesterday. Keeps my mind on the races this weekend. And may they all come home safe.

[Man o Taz]

I hope it keeps the focus on the races.

As they should, I am certain they'll have feature stories each day on NBC discussing the tragic loss.

I hope the great racing we see this weekend can stand as a tribute to Z.

This is one reason why I will be cheering very hard for Stanwyck.

[Blue Jeans]

Rooting for Cali Chrome and Shared Belief ... 1 - 2 in that order.  Just my gut feeling!  CC has been my fav since day one!  Safe ride for all.

[peeptoad]

Well, I'm having some trouble wiuth this race this year... probably due to the retirement of most of the older main track males that were worth anything. 

I have settled on Shared Belief as my top pick, although I am not pleased to be going with the chalk. Zivo would appear to be the best older male in the race, and track seemed to be playing pretty fair yesterday. I give him a chance to run down the speed on this track. I'll throw Cigar Street into exotics... never underestimate Mott with a decent horse that has "cigar" in his name, plus he can likely stalk the speed duel between Bayern and Moreno, gets first jump on the pace. Finally, something about Toast of New York draws me in... he's never run on dirt, big question there, but no problem with the distance, and he will probably work out a stalking trip as well.

Shared Belief
Zivo
Cigar Street/ Toast of New York

good luck!