2014 Horse Of The Year Candidates

[Man o Taz]

I think it will be very interesting to see what happens with the three year olds.

A strong case can be made for 4 three year olds...possibly winning horse of the year.

Shared Belief with another win would tie California Chrome with G1 wins and this would be 3 against older horses.

Could the G1 Malibu Stakes be on his schedule? I am uncertain a victory there would bolster his resume much.

Shared Belief was not flattered by the finish of the older horses that he bested in his two G1 races...though Toast of New York did finish well in the race.

A victory outside the state of California would likely do him good in either the Cigar Mile, or better yet - the Clark Handicap. The Cigar Mile I think is interesting because it would give he or Bayern a G1 victory at 8, 9, and 10 furlongs this year. Also, if Goldencents points to the Cigar Mile then he could earn the distinction of beating a two-time champion miler.

California Chrome seems unlikely to contest another race this year.

Bayern has been such a warrior with his many travels it would seem a lot to have him travel East of the Mississippi for the 8th time.

And that leaves Tonalist...

Would Mr. Clement target another race for Tonalist? I do not know.

The Cigar Mile would be more convenient, but a Clark win could make a strong case for him - also depending who else is in the race.

Will Take Charge turned his win there into a closing argument for top three year old.

We'll see.

If no three year old runs in any of these races I think California Chrome will take it as people reflect on his BC performance and how the Pennsylvania Derby did have the 1st and 3rd place finishers in the Classic making that race the best prep.

Would that make California Chrome HOTY? It could.

The Toronto Sun thinks it will be Bayern.
http://www.torontosun.com/2014/11/01/breeders-cup-classic-winner-bayern-likely-will-capture-us-horse-of-year-honours

The Daily News thinks its a toss-up.

http://www.dailynews.com/events/20141101/debatable-call-at-breeders-cup-leaves-horse-of-the-year-race-in-chaos

And Main Sequence tops the final NTRA Poll...
http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/breeders/2014/11/03/main-sequence-tops-bayern-final-nrta-thoroughbred-poll/18427533/

1. Main Sequence (Horse of the Year/Champion Turf Horse)
2. Bayern (Champion Three Year Old Male?)
3. California Chrome
4. Untapable (Champion Three Year Old Filly)
5. Shared Belief
6. Wise Dan
7. Goldencents
8. Tonalist
9. Palace Malice (Champion Older Male?)
10. Work All Week (Champion Sprinter)

Could that be a forecast of Eclipse voting?

Here is a suggestion that it should be between the top three year olds including Untapable...with Bayern and California Chrome...

http://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Disputes_Reign_Over_Bayerns_BC_Classic_Win_123#

[The Tin Man]

Taz ... Golden cents is retired and already relocated ... the only place he'll be running anymore is in a pasture. 

[Man o Taz]

Whoops. Looks like I've been sleeping. Good for him.   

[Man o Taz]

Horse (next race if one is scheduled)

1. Main Sequence (G1 Hong Kong Vase December 14/G1 Japan Cup November 30)

He is the only other horse who still may have another race scheduled.

2. California Chrome (G1 Hollywood Cup, November 29)

I am glad California Chrome's connections are making an effort with California Chrome. Its obvious he came out of the race strong and they probably want to see if he really does need two preps before he delivers a top performance in planning for next year. Now, this would be a G1 in three year old company so there could be some detractors. The race has also been shortened from 10 to 9 furlongs.

3. Shared Belief

3. Tonalist

3. Bayern

6. Wise Dan (G1 Clark Handicap? November 28)

The real irony would be if all the three year olds pass on the Clark and Dan is able to enter it. I doubt it. Its less than three weeks away and so far as I know he has not returned to training.

7. Untapable

8. Palace Malice (retired?)

[curtis]

Horse (next race if one is scheduled)

1. Main Sequence (G1 Hong Kong Vase December 14/G1 Japan Cup November 30)

He is the only other horse who still may have another race scheduled.

2. California Chrome (G1 Hollywood Cup, November 29)

I am glad California Chrome's connections are making an effort with California Chrome. Its obvious he came out of the race strong and they probably want to see if he really does need two preps before he delivers a top performance in planning for next year. Now, this would be a G1 in three year old company so there could be some detractors. The race has also been shortened from 10 to 9 furlongs.

3. Shared Belief

3. Tonalist

3. Bayern

6. Wise Dan (G1 Clark Handicap? November 28)

The real irony would be if all the three year olds pass on the Clark and Dan is able to enter it. I doubt it. Its less than three weeks away and so far as I know he has not returned to training.

7. Untapable

8. Palace Malice (retired?)

Wise Dan is coming off a fracture and although he is healing nicely there is no way you'll see him in a race before next spring, in my opinion, if ever at all, he's coming on eight and his connections aren't exactly known for being adventurous.  Palace Malice very well may come back if it looks as though he is going to recover and recapture his form as last I heard there was no stud deal in place for him.  Shared Belief may run in the Malibu (Gr1, 7f at Santa Anita December 26).  I would also think that wouldn't be the worst spot in the world for Bayern although Baffert will have several others, e.g. Chitu, Midnight Hawk, etc., for that one.  If Chrome stubs his toe Thanksgiving weekend at Del Mar, Bayern could further strengthen his case for an Eclipse or two by winning the Malibu--especially if he can beat Shared Belief again.

[Man o Taz]

Thanks for the update.

I think the Malibu results will have no impact on the 3 year old/HOTY voting.

Its a sprint for three year olds - not a route.

If they want to run a shorter race - ship to Aqueduct for the Cigar Mile.

I also doubt that California Chrome's race will have any impact at all on three year old/HOTY voting.

It too is a restricted race on grass - and while a route...its restricted.

Now - the case could be made that three year olds are the best this year so as a result this would help them...but I don't buy it. Maybe I'm becoming cynical in my old age. 

[curtis]

Thanks for the update.

I think the Malibu results will have no impact on the 3 year old/HOTY voting.

Its a sprint for three year olds - not a route.

If they want to run a shorter race - ship to Aqueduct for the Cigar Mile.

I also doubt that California Chrome's race will have any impact at all on three year old/HOTY voting.

It too is a restricted race on grass - and while a route...its restricted.

Now - the case could be made that three year olds are the best this year so as a result this would help them...but I don't buy it. Maybe I'm becoming cynical in my old age.

I think that the Hollywood Derby and/or the Malibu could have big implications.  In a year that is begging for tiebreakers, this is what is needed.  If Chrome wins he'll have done enough and should win both accolades.  If voters can give Champion Older Male to a turf horse as they have several times in the last few years, then a win should only bolster Chrome's resume.  A loss will more than likely do him in as he will have ended the year with four consecutive losses.  I think Shared Belief needed the BCC win to have a chance because of his late start.  Bayern is another story.  Training wise, 7f in late December, at your home base, makes more sense after the campaign he's had and before that in which he is about to embark.  If he can beat a major rival along the way, he'll end up with three Gr1's two Gr2's ranging from 7-10f and the only time the whole gang got together at 10f, he was the winner.  That is quite a resume for a horse who was unraced one year ago.  The finalists for Horse of the Year will probably be Bayern, Chrome and Main Sequence.  As for NYRA and the Cigar Mile, I wish them well.  As for the Clark, few things please me more than to watch connections stick it to Churchill Downs.  I think the best performances by older horses were turned in by Palace Malice and Game on Dude, neither of which made through August and Dude just couldn't maintain consistency at his age.  I do hope Wise Dan at least gets considered for champion turf horse.

[Man o Taz]

I understand the need for a tiebreaker.

I just do not see it with a 9 furlong restricted turf race and a 7 furlong restricted three year old sprint how anything will be settled.

The races to break the tie are the Cigar Mile or the Clark Handicap.

The fact that none of the connections are pointing to these races is fine - but tells me - none are interested in really breaking the tie. Sure some of them have suggested that these races are tiebreakers, but after running as three year old males against elders - besting them...I would think a route allowance race on dirt against graded stakes horses would be more impressive to me than these choices. Just my opinion.

I am a big fan of the horses - I hope they do well - but if I were a voter - a result in any of these races would not answer any the following questions:

1. Can Bayern best the top three year olds twice in a route race without an ideal trip - everything going his way?
2. Can California Chrome win an open company race? A race against top three year old dirt horses post-Belmont?
3. Can Shared Belief win a dirt route race against top dirt horses?
4. Can Tonalist beat the best of the west when they are rested?

I concur on the sticking it to Churchill Downs point...

And I would add two other top older horse performances...Moreno's Whitney win...and Lea's Donn Handicap win...those were impressive races. I'm an Itsmyluckdayfan...but Moreno's Whitney I think was more impressive with the field than Istmyluckday's Woodward win.

If Chrome loses - its on turf - against turf horses - it changes few minds. If you liked Chrome for three year old/HOTY with the 3 losses - you'll like him with the 4. If you thought he should be HOTY with his current resume - a win will bolster it more but your mind will be unchanged. If you thought Chrome was passed his prime a win will do little since you'll say he couldn't do it against elders or dirt three year olds.

If Bayern loses - it really hurts him - if he wins - he's already won at 7 furlongs in the Woody Stephens - and arguably that field was superior to the field he'll face in terms of sprinters - in the Malibu. If Bayern wins it says he's a better sprinter. Did anyone think Shared Belief was a champion sprinter?

I agree that with all Bayern has been through - it makes more sense to keep him at home - but then why run him at all? If he came out of the race strong and good - then send him to NY...to get another open company win in the G1 Cigar Mile. Then he can be sent to the farm for some R&R rather than being kept in training throughout December. 

So really I do see the race potentially having 1 impact on Bayern...negative...if he wins its expected against a top three year old who is not a sprinter...and whose turn of foot on dirt is not as sharp as it is on synthetic. And when it comes down to it - because the G2 Woody Stephens has a better field - I would dismiss the effort against Shared Belief.

If Shared Belief wins - it does nothing for his resume either for HOTY - though I think a win against Bayern would show he could sprint - but he's a gelding so what does it matter?

STEVE HASKIN: The case for Bayern
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2014/11/11/bayern-s-feats-shouldn-t-be-overlooked.aspx

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/blog/_/name/ehalt_bob/id/11891469/will-grass-greener-california-chrome
Plan B, in case California Chrome fizzles in his turf work, would be to run in the Native Diver, also on Nov. 29. It's on the dirt, but is only a Grade 3 stakes and would lack the charisma that could come from a Grade 1 win on a new surface. Naming California Chrome Horse of the Year off a final push from a Grade 3 stakes seems a stretch.

[peeptoad]

Horse (next race if one is scheduled)

1. Main Sequence (G1 Hong Kong Vase December 14/G1 Japan Cup November 30)

Main Sequence is in training for a 2015 campaign, but will not race again this year. He will most likely go to GP for a race and then Dubai (Sheema classic).

[Man o Taz]

Too bad. He had a short season here - I thought he might take a race in Japan or Hong Kong.

[Man o Taz]

Well, one HOTY candidate was in action this weekend and the victory was emphatic...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0kIXJHR_zo

But, as stated above - I don't think this influences many folks...

Those who like Chrome will like him more.

Those who said he couldn't win against top three year olds and elders in an open company dirt race will say he didn't do it again.

But he did beat the G1 Queens Plate winner...

We'll see what Shared Belief and Bayern bring to the table...if anything...

[afleetphil]

I like California Chrome. He won The Santa Anita. He won the Kentucky Derby. He won The Preakness. He probably would have won the Belmont with a good hoof.

Don't think you can use the Penn Derby against him. Throw it out.

He came in 3rd in the Breeders Cup Classic by a fast closing neck.

And he won a graded stakes race the first time he tried turf.

Not sure what Chrome has to do, to win HOY honors. He deserves it.

[Man o Taz]

I agree.

He's my top candidate.

I love Bayern's durability, but Chrome entered the toughest contests throughout the year and contested them well.

If three year olds as a class are the top runners this year, then those races should not receive the normal treatment that they have in the past.

Chrome ran in and won three of them. Then he threw in the bonus of the Hollywood Derby.

Bayern ran in and won two of them...

Tonalist ran in and won two of them...

Shared Belief ran in and won two of them...

And Main Sequence ran in and won all his turf starts, but is on the shelf prepping for 2015.

Tonalist is on the shelf.

Bayern and Shared Belief may contest the Malibu...but to me that is a weaker race because its not a route race. If Shared Belief wins they'll discount Bayern's Classic win. If Bayern wins they'll discount Shared Belief which is silly since this is a sprint.

So really I do not see either horse getting to Chrome in the voting...

Main Sequence could be the determinative factor seeing how many votes he takes from Bayern or Chrome.

[peeptoad]

I would be surprised if the HOY vote comes down to two other horses besides Chrome and Bayern. Main Sequence is undefeated, all in G1 races, but I kind of get the feeling he is not going to stick in the voters' minds all that much when it comes time to cast the ballots. A turf horse has won the award the last two years, plus he only raced 4 times and really was not in the "limelight" all that much, despite his record.

It bears mentioning that an older, dirt/main track, male horse has not won HOY since Curlin in 2008. That's pretty significant, and it figures to go to a horse outside that division again this year. Hard to get past one of the 3yos, with the dearth of highest-quality, older, dirt males once more. Shared Belief is the other logical horse, but he just didn't do enough this year, mainly due to injury. That's not his "fault", but it had an impact on his campaign. Had he won the Classic he would be a frontrunner for the award, but the rest of his resume without that race isn't enough (only my opinion and I don't vote!).

Malibu result aside, I think Chrome will probably get it. He would be far from the most brilliant winner in years past, but he's probably good enough this year imho, plus he has that vox populi thing going for him. The G1 turf win definitely didn't hurt his chances. He would have rolled in that race at CD though (and I am a Hopper fan). In addition, the Bayern-haters will probably vote Chrome (or go home!)

[Man o Taz]

Good points all around.

The only negative I see for Chrome other than not besting elders or dirt three year olds post Preakness is his connections. Some people I have noticed still reference the Belmont comments.

However, I think most people have moved beyond them and the fact that Del Mar set a meet record for the Hollywood Derby is also important.

I am a firm believer that HOTY should come down to what happens on the track. However, I also believe that intangibles matter - albeit for not much more than 5 percent - but in a close race it could have an impact.

I believe many folks - even outside of the horse racing world - enjoyed Chrome's story.

http://www.saratogian.com/sports/20141207/veitch-horse-of-the-year-comes-down-to-a-pick-6

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/blog/_/name/ehalt_bob/id/11974698/upon-further-review-california-chrome

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/wgoh/archive/2014/12/02/debating-the-eclipse-by-eric-mitchell.aspx#comment-1724833705

And two of the top 3 "moments of the year" feature California Chrome victories.
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2014/12/05/nod-goes-to-breeders-cup-classic-as-year-s-top-race.aspx