2014 G1 Belmont Stakes Test of a Champion

Started by Man o Taz, May 19, 2014, 06:23:57 AM

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Man o Taz

Well, so far it seems the field for the Belmont Stakes looks like this:

California Chrome
Commanding Curve
Commissioner
Danza
Intense Holiday
Kid Cruz
Ride On Curlin
Samraat
Social Inclusion
Tonalist
Wicked Strong
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/NYState/First_Look_at_the_Belmont_Stakes_Field_123

I think a small field benefits California Chrome and this field is looking biggest and bigger.

I do wonder if Uncle Sigh may enter this race as well. Or perhaps he'll be pointed to the Woody Stephens.

That is where I think Social Inclusion should point.

It will be interesting to see a strong closer like Wicked Strong taking on California Chrome at Belmont Park.

Tonalist finished first and Commissioner second in the G2 Peter Pan.

Wicked Strong has the advantage of having broken his maiden at Belmont Park - with two efforts over the surface.

Intense Holiday also has a race over the surface where he finished 5th in the Champagne Stakes.

Samraat broke his maiden at Belmont Park.

Kid Cruz is based at Belmont Park, but has never raced over the surface.

So, six of the eleven potential challengers have experience over the track. We will see what advantage that gives them.

I think California Chrome's connections are following a wise path in shipping him to Belmont Park soon. Chrome managed to win over Churchill's sandy track despite not liking it.

Belmont Park is known as "The Big Sandy".

However, Los Alamitos is known for having a dry, deep, sandy loam to it as well - so we'll see whether Belmont is more similar to Churchill's surface on Derby day or Los Alamitos'. I think Chrome may actually relish it.

"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Man o Taz

Well in 2013 they had 14...

2012 - 11
2011 - 12
2010 - 12
2009 - 10
2008 - 9
2007 - 7
2006 - 12
2005 - 11
2004 - 9
2003 - 6
2002 - 11
2001 - 9
2000 - 11
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Man o Taz

Grandstand only general admission tickets are still available.

All seats are sold out.

However, I think since Clubhouse General Admission is not available, that this may be because they are going to remove the clubhouse benches and replace them with individual seating that they can sell at more than $100 a pop.

So stay-tuned if you are interested in going.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jesselawrence/2014/05/19/belmont-stakes-tickets-most-expensive-in-3-years-up-48-since-california-chrome-won-preakness/?ss=business


"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Man o Taz

#3
Latest Possible Field:

California Chrome
Commanding Curve
Commissioner
Danza (thanks Dusty)
Intense Holiday
Kid Cruz
Ride On Curlin
Ring Weekend
Samraat
Social Inclusion
Tonalist
Wicked Strong
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Dusty

Danza is OUT!
May they run with the wind

The Tin Man

I've thought all along that this will be the easiest race for Junior of the 3 ... I still think so ... even more so now ...

He's never shown even a hint of being gassed in any of the races in his current streak ... I think he'll handle the extra 1/4 just fine ... and he's more proven at distance than any horse he'll be facing ...

Got a feeling he's gonna romp.

He's used to jogging 2 miles all of the time at his home in Los Al ... and the super long stretch there should have him well prepared there.

Here's hoping he stays healthy, as injury is the only way I can imagine he'd lose this.

Stay safe and have fun Junior!!!

Man o Taz

I agree.

Victor has ridden him with not only confidence, but intelligence. He did not use any more of the horse than he needed to win the Preakness Stakes.

Now, Commanding Curve seemed to be coming strong in the Preakness Stakes, but that was after California Chrome had been geared down in the stretch so I really do not see him as having the same quality as Junior.

As I also noted, I think that he will also relish the sandy track at Belmont Park.

That said, I also tend to agree with Joe Drape that this is one of the stronger Belmont fields than we have seen in recent years with four of the top 5 Derby finishers competing and the top 3 Preakness finishers.

G1 Arkansas Derby
Ride on Curlin - 2nd

G1 Bluegrass Stakes

0

G1Florida Derby
0

G1 Wood Memorial
Wicked Strong - 1st
Samraat - 2nd
Social Inclusion - 3rd

G2 Peter Pan Stakes
Tonalist - 1st
Commissioner - 1st

G2 Louisiana Derby
Intense Holiday - 2nd
Commanding Curve - 3rd

G2 Tampa Bay Derby
Ring Weekend - 1st
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

peeptoad

I hope they don't run Social Inclusion. He's overrated imo, but his connections are not doing him any favors either.

Man o Taz

I agree.

I think he is ideally suited for the Haskell Stakes, but running him the Belmont Stakes may hurt his prospects for the summer.

He reminds me a lot of Hard Spun.

A truly talented horse who just faced better horses in the big races. Had he been rested in the Preakness, Hard Spun might have won the Belmont.

I know that Social Inclusion was not in the Derby, but Hard Spun had much more of a bottom under him for the Triple Crown races having raced a number of times at two and three. 

Point Social Inclusion to the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth Park or to the Woody Stephens and the Dwyer. Let him get a stakes win. Then if he wins at 9 furlongs in the Haskell - move him up to a race like the Travers - but gradually.
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Raven

Is it true that Victor is 2 for 65 at Belmont?
call no man happy till he dies. ~SOLON~

peeptoad

 :mallet:
Quote from: Raven on May 21, 2014, 05:01:11 PM
Is it true that Victor is 2 for 65 at Belmont?

That's possible...

and check out this stat:

Belmont Stakes (when the TC is on the line):

7 or less starters: 9-for-13
8 or more starters: 2-for-12
9+ starters: 0-for-9


Man o Taz

#11
Good stats, but how many times pre-1978 have there been 9 or more starters in the Belmont Stakes?

That statistic is probably pretty low...

The fields for the TC races likely only started getting to be huge in recent years...but perhaps I am wrong.

This is why I suggested that smaller the field the better for California Chrome.

They had 11 in the gate in 2012 - 12 if I'll Have Another had been entered. I do not think that the number in the starting gate would have prevented I'll Have Another from bringing home the Triple Crown, just like I don't think 11 in the starting gate will prevent California Chrome.

He has been making history along the way, and I am certain if he wins the TC this will be one of many historic footnotes attached to the victory.

Quote from: Raven on May 21, 2014, 05:01:11 PM
Is it true that Victor is 2 for 65 at Belmont?

I think that is largely irrelevant.

He obviously was riding the best horse in only two of those races or issues interceded which prevented him from winning (see War Emblem's stumble at the gate).

In the Belmont Stakes, he will be riding the best horse.

For me what was important was that he raced several times on the Preakness undercard to get a feel for the track.

I hope his connections make certain that he does the same at Belmont Park on Stakes Day.

I think he has been doing a superlative job.

I do not want to jinx him, but we saw some concern about California Chrome breaking from the gate.

In both the Kentucky Derby and particularly the Preakness Stakes he broke sharply.

After the Kentucky Derby, there were concerns about the speed of the race - well he ran the fastest Preakness since Big Brown's 2008 victory.

People suggest that his pedigree is not adequate, but his grandfather is Pulpit and his great grandfather is AP Indy. His sire's dam was by Cozzene  who was the 1985 Eclipse Award winning turf horse and led the North American General Sire list in 1996. His grandfather on his dam's side was sired by Mr. Prospector. His dam's dam was sired by a son of Danzig.

The horse was bred to run and that is what he does best from 5.5 furlongs to 10 furlongs and counting.
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Man o Taz

It seems that California Chrome is having no problem with the Belmont surface.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/more-sports/belmont-stakes-insider-early-trot-leaves-trainer-amazed-triple-threat-article-1.1802787

Let's hope that continues.

He's raced at 5 different tracks...and really 5 different surfaces since the Santa Anita dirt plays differently than the Churchill and Pimlico dirt and then there is the polytrack and the cushion track.

Perhaps if he wins the Triple Crown, I'll be calling for him to head to Europe to try out the turf in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. (SMILE)
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Man o Taz

#13
Latest Possible Field:

California Chrome
Candy Boy
Commanding Curve
Commissioner
Intense Holiday
Kid Cruz

Matuszak is the latest possible entry. He finished 5th in the Remsen and 4th in the Jerome before heading to Maryland where he was third at Laurel to KId Cruz in the Private Terms and then second to him in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico.

Ride On Curlin
Ring Weekend
Samraat
Social Inclusion
Tonalist
Wicked Strong

Now its up to 13 - wow...
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

The Tin Man

Quote from: Man o Taz on May 23, 2014, 07:01:41 AM
Latest Possible Field:

California Chrome
Candy Boy
Commanding Curve
Commissioner
Intense Holiday
Kid Cruz

Matuszak is the latest possible entry. He finished 5th in the Remsen and 4th in the Jerome before heading to Maryland where he was third at Laurel to KId Cruz in the Private Terms and then second to him in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico.

Ride On Curlin
Ring Weekend
Samraat
Social Inclusion
Tonalist
Wicked Strong

Now its up to 13 - wow...

Guess that 2nd place money is too enticing to the other 12 ... plus a little black type in a Classic race is a lure also ...

Just think ... in just over 2 weeks ... we're finally going to have that ever elusive Triple Crown ... as long as he stays healthy.  :chickendance:

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