Derby Prep Schedule
COMPLETE SCHEDULE
RACE DATE TITLE GRADE RACE DISTANCE TRACK RACE REPLAY POINTS
September 6, 2014 Iroquois 1 1/16 Miles Churchill Downs 10-4-2-1 Winner: Lucky Player, BSF 82
September 27, 2014 FrontRunner 1 1/16 Miles Santa Anita Park 10-4-2-1 Winner: American Pharoah:101
October 4, 2014 Champagne 1 Mile Belmont Park 10-4-2-1 Winner: Daredevil: 107
October 4, 2014 Breeders' Futurity 1 1/16 Miles Keeneland N/A 10-4-2-1 Winner: Carpe Diem: 93
October 5, 2014 Grey 1 1/16 Miles (S) Woodbine N/A 10-4-2-1 Winner: International Star: 66
November 1, 2014 Breeders' Cup Juvenile 1 1/16 Miles Santa Anita Park 10-4-2-1 Winner: Texas Red: 104
November 22, 2014 Delta Downs Jackpot 1 1/16 Miles Delta Downs 10-4-2-1 Winner: Ocho Ocho Ocho: 90
November 29, 2014 Remsen 1 1/8 Miles Aqueduct 10-4-2-1 Winner: Leave The Light On: 90
November 29, 2014 Kentucky Jockey Club 1 1/16 Miles Churchill Downs 10-4-2-1 Winner: El Kabeir: 94
December 20, 2014 Los Alamitos Futurity 1 1/16 Miles Los Alamitos N/A 10-4-2-1 Winner: Dortmund: 91
January 3, 2015 Jerome 1 Mile 70 Yards Aqueduct N/A 10-4-2-1 Winner: El Kabeir: 95
January 10, 2015 Sham 1 Mile Santa Anita Park 10-4-2-1 Winner: Calculator: 97?
January 17, 2015 Lecomte 1 Mile 70 Yards Fair Grounds 10-4-2-1 Winner: International Star: 89
January 19, 2015 Smarty Jones 1 Mile Oaklawn Park 10-4-2-1 Winner: Far Right: 89
January 24, 2015 Holy Bull 1 1/16 Miles Gulfstream Park 10-4-2-1 Winner: Upstart: 105
February 7, 2015 Withers 1 1/16 Miles Aqueduct 10-4-2-1 Winner: Far From Over: 96
February 7, 2015 Robert B. Lewis 1 1/16 Miles Santa Anita Park 10-4-2-1 Winner: Dortmund: 103
February 14, 2015 El Camino Real Derby 1 1/8 Miles (S) Golden Gate 10-4-2-1 Winner: Metaboss: 85
February 21, 2015 Fountain of Youth 1 1/16 Miles Gulfstream Park 50-20-10-5 Winner: Itsaknockout:90/Upstart: 95
February 21, 2015 Risen Star 1 1/16 Miles Fair Grounds 50-20-10-5 Winner: International Star: 93
February 22, 2015 Southwest 1 1/16 Miles Oaklawn Park 10-4-2-1 Winner: Far Right: 91
March 7, 2015 Gotham 1 1/16 Miles Aqueduct 50-20-10-5 Winner: El Kabeir :89
March 7, 2015 San Felipe 1 1/16 Miles Santa Anita Park 50-20-10-5 Winner: Dortmund: 104
March 7, 2015 Tampa Bay Derby 1 1/16 Miles Tampa Bay 50-20-10-5 Winner: Carpe Diem: 98
March 14, 2015 Rebel 1 1/16 Miles Oaklawn Park 50-20-10-5 Winner: American Pharoah: 101
March 21, 2015 Spiral 1 1/8 Miles (S) Turfway Park 50-20-10-5 Winner: Dubai Sky : 92
March 22, 2015 Sunland Derby 1 1/8 Miles Sunland Park 50-20-10-5 Winner: Firing Line : 97
March 28, 2015 UAE Derby 1 3/16 Miles (S) Meydan 100-40-20-10 Winner: Mubtaahij
March 28, 2015 Florida Derby 1 1/8 Miles Gulfstream Park 100-40-20-10 Winner: Materiality : 110
March 28, 2015 Louisiana Derby 1 1/8 Miles Fair Grounds 100-40-20-10 Winner: International Star : 98
April 4, 2015 Wood Memorial 1 1/8 Miles Aqueduct 100-40-20-10 Winner: Frosted : 103
April 4, 2015 Santa Anita Derby 1 1/8 Miles Santa Anita Park 100-40-20-10 Winner: Dortmund : 106
April 4, 2015 Blue Grass 1 1/8 Miles Keeneland 100-40-20-10 Winner: Carpe Diem : 95
April 11, 2015 Arkansas Derby 1 1/8 Miles Oaklawn Park 100-40-20-10 Winner: American Pharoah : 105
April 18, 2015 Lexington 1 1/16 Miles Keeneland 10-4-2-1 Winner: Divining Rod
DRF has an analysis of every race below if you click on the .PDF:
http://www.drf.com/events/road-kentucky-derby-churchill-downs#points
2015 Kentucky Derby Points Standings
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 El Kabeir John Terranova 21 $330,792
2 Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher 14 $660,000
3 Calculator Peter Miller 14 $180,000
4 Texas Red Keith Desormeaux 12 $1,136,000
5 International Star Mike Maker 11 $130,979
6 Ocho Ocho Ocho Jim Cassidy 10 $660,000
7 Mr. Z D. Wayne Lukas 10 $473,326
8 American Pharoah Bob Baffert 10 $360,000
9 Daredevil Todd Pletcher 10 $300,000
10 Dortmund Bob Baffert 10 $300,000
11 Leave the Light On Chad Brown 10 $240,000
12 Lucky Player Steve Asmussen 10 $96,481
13 Upstart Rick Violette 6 $300,000
14 Bold Conquest Steve Asmussen 6 $72,176
15 Conquest Typhoon Mark Casse 4 $311,827
16 Imperia Kiaran McLaughlin 4 $163,804
17 Firing Line Simon Callaghan 4 $100,000
18 Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 4 $80,000
19 Nasa John Servis 4 $40,000
20 Rock Shandy Peter Miller 4 $38,000
21 Far Right Ron Moquett 2 $115,906
22 The Truth or Else Kenny McPeek 2 $76,000
23 Hashtag Bourbon Kellyn Gorder 2 $74,117
24 Keen Ice Dale Romans 2 $55,000
25 Hollywood Critic Barbara Minshall 2 $35,528
26 Eagle Neil Howard 2 $21,902
27 General Bellamy William Mott 2 $20,000
28 Pioneerof the West Mark Casse 2 $14,250
29 The Great War Wesley Ward 1 $170,702
30 Lord Nelson Bob Baffert 1 $84,571
31 Danny Boy Dale Romans 1 $55,544
32 Saratoga Heater Al Stall, Jr. 1 $50,000
33 Bench Warrant John Sadler 1 $30,000
34 St. Joy Bay Peter Miller 1 $27,000
35 Tough Customer Wayne Catalano 1 $25,000
36 Classy Class Kiaran McLaughlin 1 $20,000
37 Ackeret Kiaran McLaughlin 1 $13,000
38 Flashaway John C. Oxley 1 $8,999
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 El Kabeir John Terranova 21 $330,792
2 International Star Mike Maker 21 $250,979
3 Upstart Rick Violette, Jr. 16 $538,080
4 Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher 14 $660,000
5 Calculator Peter Miller 14 $180,000
6 Texas Red Keith Desormeaux 12 $1,136,000
7 Mr. Z D. Wayne Lukas 12 $488,325
8 Far Right Ron Moquette 12 $205,906
9 Ocho Ocho Ocho Jim Cassidy 10 $660,000
10 American Pharoah Bob Baffert 10 $360,000
11 Daredevil Todd Pletcher 10 $300,000
11 Dortmund Bob Baffert 10 $300,000
13 Leave the Light On Chad Brown 10 $240,000
14 Lucky Player Steve Asmussen 10 $97,231
15 Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 8 $156,800
16 Bold Conquest Steve Asmussen 6 $72,176
17 Conquest Typhoon Mark Casse 4 $311,827
18 Bayerd Steve Asmussen 4 $245,000
19 Imperia Kiaran McLaughlin 4 $163,804
20 Firing Line Simon Callaghan 4 $100,000
21 Nasa John Servis 4 $40,000
21 War Story Tom Amoss 4 $40,000
23 Rock Shandy Peter Miller 4 $38,000
24 Bluegrass Singer Marcus Vitali 2 $104,775
25 The Truth or Else Kenny McPeek 2 $76,000
26 Hashtag Bourbon Kellyn Gorder 2 $74,117
27 Keen Ice Dale Romans 2 $66,250
28 Hollywood Critic Barbara Minshall 2 $35,528
29 Eagle Neil Howard 2 $23,902
30 General Bellamy William Mott 2 $20,000
30 Tiznow R J Steve Asmussen 2 $20,000
32 Pioneerof the West Mark Casse 2 $14,250
33 The Great War Wesley Ward 1 $170,702
34 Private Prospect Michael Campbell 1 $137,000
35 Lord Nelson Bob Baffert 1 $84,571
36 Danny Boy Dale Romans 1 $55,544
37 Juan and Bina Gustavo Delgado 1 $36,330
38 Saratoga Heater Al Stall, Jr. 1 $50,000
39 Bench Warrant John Sadler 1 $30,000
40 St. Joe Bay Peter Miller 1 $27,000
41 Tough Customer Wayne Catalano 1 $25,000
42 Classy Class Kiaran McLaughlin 1 $20,000
43 Ackeret Kiaran McLaughlin 1 $13,000
44 Flashaway John C. Oxley 1 $8,999
45 Another Lemon Drop Phil Bauer 1 $8,000
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher 14 $660,000
2 Texas Red Keith Desormeaux 12 $1,136,000
3 El Kabeir John Terranova 11 $210,792
4 International Star Mike Maker 11 $130,979
5 Ocho Ocho Ocho Jim Cassidy 10 $660,000
6 Mr. Z D. Wayne Lukas 10 $473,326
7 American Pharoah Bob Baffert 10 $360,000
8 Daredevil Todd Pletcher 10 $300,000
8 Dortmund Bob Baffert 10 $3000,000
10 Leave the Light On Chad Brown 10 $240,000
11 Lucky Player Steve Asmussen 10 $96,481
12 Upstart Rick Violette 6 $300,000
13 Bold Conquest Steve Asmussen 6 $72,176
14 Conquest Typhoon Mark Casse 4 $311,827
15 Imperia Kiaran McLaughlin 4 $163,804
16 Calculator Peter Miller 4 $120,000
17 Firing Line Simon Callaghan 4 $100,000
18 Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 4 $80,000
19 Far Right Ron Moquett 2 $115,906
20 The Truth or Else Kenny McPeek 2 $76,000
21 Hashtag Bourbon Kellyn Gorder 2 $74,117
22 Keen Ice Dale Romans 2 $55,000
23 Hollywood Critic Barbara Minshall 2 $35,528
24 Eagle Neil Howard 2 $21,902
25 The Great War Wesley Ward 1 $170,702
26 Lord Nelson Bob Baffert 1 $84,571
27 Danny Boy Dale Romans 1 $55,544
28 Saratoga Heater Al Stall, Jr. 1 $50,000
29 Bench Warrant John Sadler 1 $30,000
30 Tough Customer Wayne Catalano 1 $25,000
31 Classy Class Kiaran McLaughlin 1 $20,000
32 Flashaway John C. Oxley 1 $8,999
As for points, Baffert didn't sound too pleased on a recent radio interview with Steve
Byke - he said something to the effect he wouldn't have to worry about Dortmund getting
in if it was the old way, but now he has to worry about the points.
SA Derby might be next race or San Felipe- didn't sound totally sure
I think he is opting just to point to the Santa Anita Derby. We'll see.
I understand what he is saying, but I prefer the point system since it gives more value to the 3 year old races.
I also realize that the durability of three year olds is an ongoing issue, but I think three preps for the Derby should not be too tough.
I know horses from Real Quiet forward have been winning the Derby with minimal preps as three year olds, but the less preps you have in my mind the more unlikely it is that you can win the Triple Crown. Heck, winning the Kentucky Derby alone seems to be the end all be all so why prepare a horse for the rigors of the Triple Crown.
This is why I hope American Pharoah can show himself to be a special horse, though he will be tested with just two preps as well.
I'm thinking that Dortmund is pretty special - 4 for 4 now and he
should get better with the distance. There are so many good horses this
year that you should get juicy odds on whoever you like.
As for the points v.s. money it doesn't matter to me I don't own a horse.
I guess I just get use to the status quo
The Derby being run to early has been an issue since Man O War
I agree on Dortmund looking pretty special at this point... and he was a horse that I initially didn't like. His last race changed my opinion a bit. He is a game, game horse and has an imposing stature. Crazy to think he is still growing since he is so big already.
American Pharoah is dropping down in my mind, mainly due to the injury layoff. He hasn't run since September last year, has still only had 3 starts and will asked to go into the Derby off only 2 preps. Especially if he gets bet down (in whatever his next start is) I will be looking elsewhere.
Good points on Dortmund. I was not sold either. He was supposed to blow out the field in the Los Alamitos Futurity and when that didn't happen I had reservations about him, but he is a fighter and that type of grit is very important in the scrum of the Kentucky Derby. I just expect him to win by open lengths and perhaps Firing Line is just that good, or maybe Dortmund is that lazy. Calvin Borel said in the Preakness he made a big mistake pushing Street Sense to the lead too early that once he got there he got lazy. If you look at his next two wins at Saratoga he was in a duel to the wire. It seems that he needed a horse to eyeball or he would get distracted. Perhaps Dortmund is the same way - if he gets the lead to quick then is ready to squander it. That can be costly in the Derby going 10 furlongs unless you have a ton of heart.
He's part of the 4 or more reasons I think this is Bob Baffert's derby year though there seem to be a lot of nice horses. We'll see if Punctuate can be this year's Hoppertunity.
If Frosted can improve he looks like he could be special with his last work looking so good.
And then there is Carpe Diem who we have yet to see this year.
The NYB is my pick for this years Derby!
2015 Kentucky Derby Points Standings
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 International Star Mike Maker 71 $490,979
2 Itsaknockout Todd Pletcher 50 $240,560
3 Upstart Rick Violette, Jr. 36 $615,680
4 El Kabeir John Terranova 25 $380,792
5 War Story Tom Amoss 24 $120,000
6 Far Right Ron Moquette 22 $385,906
7 Dortmund Bob Baffert 20 $390,000
8 Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher 14 $660,000
9 Mr. Z D. Wayne Lukas 14 $518,326
10 Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 13 $176,200
11 Texas Red Keith Desormeaux 12 $1,176,000
12 Keen Ice Dale Romans 12 $106,520
13 Ocho Ocho Ocho Jim Cassidy 10 $660,000
14 American Pharoah Bob Baffert 10 $360,000
15 Daredevil Todd Pletcher 10 $300,000
16 Far From Over Todd Pletcher 10 $150,000
17 Metaboss Jeff Bonde 10 $126,000
18 Lucky Player Steve Asmussen 10 $97,231
19 Frammento Nick Zito 10 $42,000
20 Firing Line Simon Callaghan 8 $130,000
21 Bold Conquest Steve Asmussen 7 $87,176
22 Conquest Typhoon Mark Casse 6 $335,827
23 The Truth or Else Kenny McPeek 6 $136,000
24 Rock Shandy Peter Miller 6 $56,000
25 St. Joe Bay Peter Miller 6 $43,000
26 Bayerd Steve Asmussen 4 $246,000
27 Imperia Kiaran McLaughlin 4 $171,804
28 Cross the Line Jerry Hollendorfer 4 $100,000
29 Nasa John Servis 4 $40,000
30 Classy Class Kiaran McLaughlin 3 $45,000
31 Bluegrass Singer Marcus Vitali 2 $108,775
32 Hashtag Bourbon Kellyn Gorder 2 $74,117
33 Hollywood Critic Barbara Minshall 2 $35,528
34 General Bellamy Bill Mott 2 $25,000
35 Tiznow R J Steve Asmussen 2 $24,000
+ Pioneerof the West Mark Casse 2 $14,250
36 The Great War Wesley Ward 1 $214,412
37 Lord Nelson Bob Baffert 1 $204,571
38 Private Prospect Michael Campbell 1 $138,000
39 Danny Boy Dale Romans 1 $59,544
+ Saratoga Heater Al Stall, Jr. 1 $50,000
40 Bench Warrant John Sadler 1 $42,000
41 Juan and Bina Gustavo Delgado 1 $40,330
42 Tough Customer Wayne Catalano 1 $25,000
+ Ackeret Kiaran McLaughlin 1 $13,000
43 Tencendur George Weaver 1 $12,500
44 Harmonic Jerry Hollendorfer 1 $12,000
45 Hero Ten All Jeff Mullins 1 $9,250
46 Flashaway John C. Oxley 1 $8,999
47 Another Lemon Drop Phil Bauer 1 $8,000
+ - Not Triple Crown nominated
2015 Kentucky Derby Point Standings
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 El Kabeir John Terranova 75 $620,792
2 International Star Mike Maker 71 $490,979
3 Dortmund Bob Baffert 70 $630,000
4 Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher 64 $870,000
5 Itsaknockout Todd Pletcher 50 $240,560
6 Upstart Rick Violette, Jr. 36 $615,680
7 War Story Tom Amoss 24 $120,000
8 Far Right Ron Moquette 22 $385,906
9 Ami's Flatter Josie Carroll 20 $99,200
10 Prospect Park Cliff Sise Jr. 20 $80,000
+Tiz Shea D Bill Mott 20 $80,000
11 Mr. Z D. Wayne Lukas 14 $518,326
12 Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 13 $176,200
13 Classy Class Kiaran McLaughlin 13 $85,000
14 Texas Red Keith Desormeaux 12 $1,176,000
15 Keen Ice Dale Romans 12 $106,520
16 Ocho Ocho Ocho Jim Cassidy 10 $660,250
17 American Pharoah Bob Baffert 10 $360,000
18 Daredevil Todd Pletcher 10 $339,600
19 Far From Over Todd Pletcher 10 $150,000
20 Metaboss Jeff Bonde 10 $126,000
21 Lucky Player Steve Asmussen 10 $97,231
22 Bolo Carla Gaines 10 $94,980
+Divining Rod Arnaud Delacour 10 $75,000
23 Frammento Nick Zito 10 $42,000
24 Firing Line Simon Callaghan 8 $130,000
25 Bold Conquest Steve Asmussen 7 $87,176
26 Conquest Typhoon Mark Casse 6 $335,827
27 Lord Nelson Bob Baffert 6 $228,571
28 The Truth or Else Kenny McPeek 6 $136,000
29 Rock Shandy Peter Miller 6 $56,000
30 St. Joe Bay Peter Miller 6 $43,000
31 Toasting Master Dale Romans 5 $21,000
32 Danzig Moon Mark Casse 5 $17,500
33 Bayerd Steve Asmussen 4 $246,000
34 Imperia Kiaran McLaughlin 4 $171,804
35 Cross the Line Jerry Hollendorfer 4 $100,000
36 Nasa John Servis 4 $40,000
37 Bluegrass Singer Marcus Vitali 2 $118,945
38 Hashtag Bourbon Kellyn Gorder 2 $74,117
39 Hollywood Critic Barbara Minshall 2 $35,528
40 General Bellamy Bill Mott 2 $25,000
41 Tiznow R J Steve Asmussen 2 $24,000
+ Pioneerof the West Mark Casse 2 $14,250
42 Private Prospect Michael Campbell 1 $138,000
43 Danny Boy Dale Romans 1 $59,544
+ Saratoga Heater Al Stall, Jr. 1 $50,000
44 Bench Warrant John Sadler 1 $42,000
45 Juan and Bina Gustavo Delgado 1 $40,330
46 Tough Customer Wayne Catalano 1 $25,000
47 Tencendur George Weaver 1 $24,500
48 Another Lemon Drop Phil Bauer 1 $20,000
+ Ackeret Kiaran McLaughlin 1 $13,000
49 Harmonic Jerry Hollendorfer 1 $12,000
50 Hero Ten All Jeff Mullins 1 $9,250
51 Flashaway John C. Oxley 1 $8,999
+ - Not Triple Crown nominated
I'm worried about Texas Red getting enough points to make the field.
I am actually more worried about his fitness for the race if he should get the points.
His connections suggesting that they would race him off his San Vicente win without any other races was strange.
He has a ton of talent. I would hate to see the horse compromised to just try and get in the gate for the Kentucky Derby.
Hold him out for the Preakness.
I hope they give Lord Nelson a shot in the SA derby. Didn't run that bad,
but distance a question
Quote from: Senator L on March 09, 2015, 09:23:13 AM
I hope they give Lord Nelson a shot in the SA derby. Didn't run that bad,
but distance a question
I second that!
Well, they reported that the top 3 finishers were set for the Santa Anita Derby - but Lord Nelson was 4th so who knows where he is going.
Louisiana maybe...or Arkansas or Florida or Kentucky.
I doubt he goes to NY.
Quote from: Man o Taz on March 10, 2015, 01:31:39 PM
Well, they reported that the top 3 finishers were set for the Santa Anita Derby - but Lord Nelson was 4th so who knows where he is going.
Louisiana maybe...or Arkansas or Florida or Kentucky.
I doubt he goes to NY.
Whereever it is I would hope it is a prep for the Woody Stephens. He both routes and sprints like a sprinter.
Perhaps he is this year's Bayern.
They may use him that way - send him in one more Derby prep - if he does not secure the points - send him to the Woody Stephens.
Of course, Bayern was a freshman as a three year old and Lord Nelson was stakes raced as a two year old so who knows what the plan will be.
I would appreciate any chance to see him run on the East Coast.
Right now the 20th place is at 10 points for the Kentucky Derby.
I would guess with about 10 major point races left that that total will not increase by more than 10 meaning that 20 points is enough to get into the gate.
I think you'll need about 40. There are still 7 races left with
100 points to the winner and 40 to second.
If you had different winners in all that's 14 horses right there
True, but in order to need 40 points to enter the gate you would likely need new horses without any points to win and place in those races. Otherwise, you are just adding points to horses that already have them.
I would suggest there may be one (Materiality?) or two of those, but most of the horses winning the points will be horses who already have 10 points or more.
For instance, examine the Rebel Stakes...
The Truth Or Else - 6
Madefromlucky
Tizwonderfulcreek
American Pharoah -10
Bold Conquest - 7
Paid Admission
Sakima
Here the odds of a non-point horse earning 50 points are slim. Could it happen? Sure, but the odds are slim. Heck, 20 points for such a horse is slim. I know Prospect Park just did it, but now he has 20 points and he'll likely get more which means that he being in the top 11 horses means that he is already accounted for and another new horse won't get it in. Examining past race history it is rare that a horse comes out of an allowance race like Constitution did and wins the top points. At least one horse will, but what are the odds of the new top points horses coming for the Arkansas Derby with the points horses from the Southwest and the Rebel - and a non points horse wins points in that race?
There are 40 point placement options available and 51 horses so far that have accumulated points. However, in order for a horse to achieve 40 points or more there are only 17 positions which provide that opportunity - the 3 50 point races left and the 7 100/40 point top races left. To raise the threshold to 40 points for entry you would have to have the top 11 horses in the points standings not get any more of those top spots because each one that does will take away a potential for a non-entry.
It will be interesting to see, but the first year 10 points got you in the gate. Last year, 14 points got you in the gate. This year I think 20 points gets you in the gate and it may even be less. To jump from 14 points to 40 points would be quite a leap.
This is one reason why I think the points total gambit is silly - because it allows a horse with barely any points into the gate whereas the graded stakes amount that was required I think was a lot more. There are horses with 20 points now that have graded stakes earnings of 80k.
If they did not run any more they could make the gate in the Derby.
Look at Commanding Curve last year who entered the Derby and finished second - his graded stakes earnings were $104,000 and 20 points. Big Bazinga was $92,000 and 14 points.
Wow, I gotta pay more attention. Didn't know
so little points would get you in :chickendance:
Why do the trainers complain about the points then?
I think the only way a horse with so few points (like 10) could make the gate is if a handful of horses win most or all of the preps (i.e. the same horses keep finishing in the top 2 or 3 spots: consistency). There will be fewer points to spread among the others. Or I suppose if a bunch of horses get injured or defect it would lower the minimum.
I don't think the points system directly weakens the race: if you really want an elite field then lower the max. # of starters. There will always be some chaff with 20 in the gate(s).
Quote from: Senator L on March 12, 2015, 02:42:01 PM
Wow, I gotta pay more attention. Didn't know
so little points would get you in :chickendance:
Why do the trainers complain about the points then?
Its something to complain about.
If it wasn't points, then it would be something else they would complain about.
Human nature I guess.
I also believe they feel if they have a hot two year old he or she should get an automatic Derby entry.
I like the point system. I just think they should set a minimum. You need a minimum of 25 points to get into the gate for the Kentucky Derby.
Then you make the race special - if its the top 20 points finishers conceivably you could have a horse with 1 point make the gate which is silly.
Quote from: peeptoad on March 13, 2015, 04:08:39 AM
I think the only way a horse with so few points (like 10) could make the gate is if a handful of horses win most or all of the preps (i.e. the same horses keep finishing in the top 2 or 3 spots: consistency). There will be fewer points to spread among the others. Or I suppose if a bunch of horses get injured or defect it would lower the minimum.
I don't think the points system directly weakens the race: if you really want an elite field then lower the max. # of starters. There will always be some chaff with 20 in the gate(s).
Is that what happened in 2013?
Giant Finish made it in with 10 points.
The next year 20 points was the cut off.
I was mistaken - I had thought it was 14 - but Commanding Curve made it in with 20.
So - perhaps 20 will be the cut off this year.
It will be interesting to see.
2015 Kentucky Derby Points Standings
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 El Kabeir John Terranova 75 $620,792
2 International Star Mike Maker 71 $490,979
3 Dortmund Bob Baffert 70 $630,000
4 Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher 64 $870,000
5 American Pharoah Bob Baffert 60 $810,000
6 Itsaknockout Todd Pletcher 50 $240,560
7 Upstart Rick Violette, Jr. 36 $615,680
8 War Story Tom Amoss 24 $120,000
9 Far Right Ron Moquette 22 $385,906
10 Madefromlucky Todd Pletcher 20 $150,000
11 Ami's Flatter Josie Carroll 20 $99,200
12 Prospect Park Cliff Sise Jr. 20 $80,000
+Tiz Shea D Bill Mott 20 $80,000
13 Bold Conquest Steve Asmussen 17 $162,176
14 Mr. Z D. Wayne Lukas 14 $518,326
15 Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 13 $176,200
16 Classy Class Kiaran McLaughlin 13 $85,000
17 Texas Red Keith Desormeaux 12 $1,176,000
18 Keen Ice Dale Romans 12 $106,520
19 The Truth or Else Kenny McPeek 11 $173,500
20 Ocho Ocho Ocho Jim Cassidy 10 $660,250
21 Daredevil Todd Pletcher 10 $339,600
22 Far From Over Todd Pletcher 10 $150,000
23 Metaboss Jeff Bonde 10 $126,000
24 Lucky Player Steve Asmussen 10 $97,231
25 Bolo Carla Gaines 10 $94,980
+Divining Rod Arnaud Delacour 10 $75,000
26 Frammento Nick Zito 10 $42,000
27 Firing Line Simon Callaghan 8 $130,000
28 Conquest Typhoon Mark Casse 6 $335,827
29 Lord Nelson Bob Baffert 6 $228,571
30 Rock Shandy Peter Miller 6 $56,000
31 St. Joe Bay Peter Miller 6 $43,000
32 Toasting Master Dale Romans 5 $21,000
33 Danzig Moon Mark Casse 5 $17,500
34 Bayerd Steve Asmussen 4 $246,000
35 Imperia Kiaran McLaughlin 4 $171,804
36 Cross the Line Jerry Hollendorfer 4 $100,000
37 Nasa John Servis 4 $40,000
38 Bluegrass Singer Marcus Vitali 2 $118,945
39 Hashtag Bourbon Kellyn Gorder 2 $74,117
40 Hollywood Critic Barbara Minshall 2 $35,528
41 General Bellamy Bill Mott 2 $25,000
42 Tiznow R J Steve Asmussen 2 $24,000
+ Pioneerof the West Mark Casse 2 $14,250
43 Private Prospect Michael Campbell 1 $138,000
44 Danny Boy Dale Romans 1 $59,544
+ Saratoga Heater Al Stall, Jr. 1 $50,000
45 Bench Warrant John Sadler 1 $42,000
46 Juan and Bina Gustavo Delgado 1 $40,330
47 Tough Customer Wayne Catalano 1 $25,000
48 Tencendur George Weaver 1 $24,500
49 Another Lemon Drop Phil Bauer 1 $20,000
+ Ackeret Kiaran McLaughlin 1 $13,000
50 Harmonic Jerry Hollendorfer 1 $12,000
51 Hero Ten All Jeff Mullins 1 $9,250
52 Flashaway John C. Oxley 1 $8,999
+ - Not Triple Crown nominated
This weekend's preps:
Sunland Derby (gr. III)
Race 11 at Sunland Park on March 22, 2015
Grade III, 1 1/8 miles, $800,000, 3 yo
Post / Horse / Age / Wt / Jockey / Trainer
1 Firing Line 3 yo Colt 122 Gary L. Stevens/Simon Callaghan
2 Lord Nelson 3 yo Colt 122 Martin Garcia/Bob Baffert
3 Where's the Moon 3 yo Gelding 122 Luis Contreras/Henry Dominguez
4 Why Two 3 yo Colt 122 Victor Espinoza/Michael Machowsky
5 Malibu Mogul 3 yo Colt 122 Enrique Portillo Gomez/Henry Dominguez
6 Tiznow R J 3 yo Colt 122 Robby Albarado/Steven M. Asmussen
7 Pain and Misery 3 yo Gelding 122 Norberto Arroyo, Jr./Henry Dominguez
8 Dirt Monster 3 yo Colt 122 Ry Eikleberry/Justin R. Evans
Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral S. (gr. III)
Race 11 at Turfway Park on March 21, 2015
Grade III, 1 1/8 miles, $550,000, 3 yo
Post / Horse / Age / Wt / Jockey / Trainer
1 Royal Son 3 yo Colt 123 Rodney A. Prescott/Todd A. Pletcher
2 Big Family 3 yo Colt 123 Albin Jimenez/Gustavo Delgado
3 Watchyourownbobber 3 yo Colt 123 Rajiv Maragh/Michael J. Maker
4 Wireless Future 3 yo Colt 123 Florent Geroux/Thomas M. Amoss
5 Another Lemon Drop 3 yo Colt 123 Drayden Van Dyke/Philip A. Bauer
6 Imperia 3 yo Colt 123 Joel Rosario/Kiaran P. McLauglin
7 Magic of Believing 3 yo Colt 123 Shane Laviolette/Kenneth G. McPeek
8 Task Force Glory 3 yo Colt 123 Rafael Manuel Hernandez/Michael J. Maker
9 Conquest Typhoon 3 yo Colt 123 Mike E. Smith/Mark E. Casse
10 Firespike 3 yo Colt 123 Miguel Mena/Michael J. Maker
11 Metaboss 3 yo Colt 123 Alex O. Solis/Jeff Bonde
12 Dubai Sky 3 yo Colt 123 Jose Lezcano/William I. Mott
Firing Line will be the deserving favorite in the Sunland Derby... and probably a heavy favorite. The price horse to use underneath imo is Where's The Moon.... the mild upset winner of the local prep should get pace to run at again. If Firing Line runs back to his RB Lewis performance he will be very difficult to beat.
Imperia will scratch from the Spiral according to McLaughlin since he is not 100%. Regardless, the horse to beat is Royal Son from the rail. Pletcher might have another horse in the gate come May 2nd. He'll have to hold off Metaboss and Another Lemon Drop. Dubai Sky is the intriguing longshot for me.
Too bad about Imperia. I was really hoping he would find himself in this race. I guess its Metaboss and Conquest Typhoon who I'll be cheering for to beat the favorite.
I am hoping Lord Nelson can take on Dortmund's role vs. Firing Line and I too like Where's The Moon and Tiznow RJ's Unbridled influence on his dam's side.
I have Tiznow RJ in my Winstar stable so I hope he runs well.
I took Firespike in his last and gonna give him a muligan for that one
He's 20-1 ml and he looks like he's an in an outer :chickendance:
How do you feel about Lord Nelson in the Sunland Derby? I know you were hoping he would enter the Santa Anita Derby, but it could be a good thing to get him elsewhere.
He's the only stakes winner - though at 7 furlongs. 2nd place could also be enough to get him into the Derby.
I hope he can step up. Firing Line could be one of those horses with seconditis so I think this could be Lord Nelson's race.
I still like him. He was stuck on the fence in the last and he was going
against Dortmund. Gets some class relief. His first race back he beat
Texas Red in 1:22 I think he bounced a little. As for breeding going a 1 1/8
I like Lord Nelson better than firing line. firing line had the lead in has last
2 but Dortmund out gamed him and that was at a 1 1/16th.
I'll play for prices in this one :chickendance:
Do you think coming back in 2 weeks is an issue at all?
Not in my mind
I would, but I'll trust you and Mr. Baffert because I think you two know a bit more than I do. Thanks.
This is my race of the weekend. I really want Lord Nelson to show his quality.
Per Bloodhorse, Baffert decided not to send Lord Nelson to the Sunland Derby.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90787/lord-nelson-ruled-out-of-sunland-derby (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90787/lord-nelson-ruled-out-of-sunland-derby)
:-\that's not good
Lord Nelson hasn't impressed me at all. In my opinion, no way he was beating Firing Line ... this being said, a 2nd place in that race was certainly possible, so that could have gotten him into The Derby ... but really, what's the point? He'd be trounced handily in The Derby by American Pharoah and Dortmund ... probably by Carpe Diem too.
Probably a good move by Baffert.
Lord Nelson hasn't impressed me either in relation to the Derby, specifically. He's 3-3 at sprint distances (and on both dirt and synth) and 0-3 (not even hitting the board) in routes. Hopefully they are now pointing him to shorter races because that's where he seems to excel, at least right now (Derby Trial- Woody Stephens again, Bob?).
I think in that article Baffert indicated they would send him somewhere else to get Derby points.
I agree that he has not impressed in route races, but I would still like to see him have another chance.
Maybe he points to the Louisiana Derby the following week at the Fairgrounds. Baffert sent Code West there a couple of years ago.
He used to send horses to the Wood Memorial, but he has not done that in a while.
I think Gulfstream plays a lot like Santa Anita, but I cannot recall his ever sending a horse there to run.
In my opinion (and for entertainment purposes only) here are three "tiers" of Derby contenders. This is how I see things right now at this precise moment, before the final preps have been run:
top tier or "elite" Derby contenders (doesn't mean they would be my top pick for the roses, but just based on prep performance so far)
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Upstart
Carpe Diem
2nd tier (horses that either appear a cut below the very best right now, or horses that we just don't know enough about until their next race)
International Star
Firing Line
El Kabeir
Prospect Park
Far From Over
Bolo
Itsaknockout
Materiality
Far Right
3rd tier i.e. "the rest" (horses that would be huge long shots if the Derby was run this weekend, but still have chances to improve and step it up before the big day)
Keen Ice
War Story
Metaboss
Daredevil
Frosted
Ocean Knight
Divining Rod
etc etc etc (could include really any horse in the 3rd tier including a number of horses running in this week's preps)
Quote from: peeptoad on March 20, 2015, 09:56:13 AM
In my opinion (and for entertainment purposes only) here are three "tiers" of Derby contenders. This is how I see things right now at this precise moment, before the final preps have been run:
top tier or "elite" Derby contenders (doesn't mean they would be my top pick for the roses, but just based on prep performance so far)
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Upstart
Carpe Diem
2nd tier (horses that either appear a cut below the very best right now, or horses that we just don't know enough about until their next race)
International Star
Firing Line
El Kabeir
Prospect Park
Far From Over
Bolo
Itsaknockout
Materiality
Far Right
Made From Lucky
3rd tier i.e. "the rest" (horses that would be huge long shots if the Derby was run this weekend, but still have chances to improve and step it up before the big day)
Keen Ice
War Story
Metaboss
Daredevil
Frosted
Ocean Knight
Divining Rod
Lord Nelson
etc etc etc (could include really any horse in the 3rd tier including a number of horses running in this week's preps)
This is excellent.
First, we have the Core 4, then the Fine 9 which I'll make the Zen 10, and then the Great 8 which I am going to increase to the Fine 9.
Baffert may have his 4th entry with One Lucky Dane scoring yesterday a nice win.
I forgot about Madefromlucky. He would probably be either a tier 2 or tier 3... probably 3 still since he's so lightly raced, but it's all subjective.
I like this tiered way, probably a great way to set up your exotic
bets on derby day
Dubai Sky would prob. be in the 3rd tier... apparently he will be supplemented and his works at CD will determine if he goes.
2015 Kentucky Derby Points Standings
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 El Kabeir John Terranova 75 $620,792
2 International Star Mike Maker 71 $490,979
3 Dortmund Bob Baffert 70 $630,000
4 Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher 64 $870,000
5 American Pharoah Bob Baffert 60 $810,000
6 Firing Line Simon Callaghan 58 $530,000
+Dubai Sky Bill Mott 50 $371,780
7 Itsaknockout Todd Pletcher 50 $240,560
8 Upstart Rick Violette, Jr. 36 $615,680
9 Conquest Typhoon Mark Casse 26 $430,827
10 War Story Tom Amoss 24 $120,000
11 Far Right Ron Moquette 22 $385,906
+Where's the Moon Henry Dominguez 20 $236,000
12 Madefromlucky Todd Pletcher 20 $150,000
13 Ami's Flatter Josie Carroll 20 $99,200
14 Prospect Park Cliff Sise Jr. 20 $80,000
+Tiz Shea D Bill Mott 20 $80,000
15 Bold Conquest Steve Asmussen 17 $162,176
16 Mr. Z D. Wayne Lukas 14 $518,326
17 Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 13 $176,200
18 Classy Class Kiaran McLaughlin 13 $85,000
19 Keen Ice Dale Romans 12 $106,520
20 The Truth or Else Kenny McPeek 11 $173,500
21 Ocho Ocho Ocho Jim Cassidy 10 $660,250
22 Daredevil Todd Pletcher 10 $339,600
23 Far From Over Todd Pletcher 10 $150,000
24 Pain and Misery Henry Dominguez 10 $145,350
25 Metaboss Jeff Bonde 10 $136,450
26 Lucky Player Steve Asmussen 10 $97,231
27 Bolo Carla Gaines 10 $94,980
+Divining Rod Arnaud Delacour 10 $75,000
28 Firespike Mike Maker 10 $51,816
29 Frammento Nick Zito 10 $42,000
30 Tiznow R J Steve Asmussen 7 $72,000
31 Rock Shandy Peter Miller 6 $56,000
32 St. Joe Bay Peter Miller 6 $43,000
33 Task Force Glory Mike Maker 5 $29,625
34 Toasting Master Dale Romans 5 $21,000
35 Danzig Moon Mark Casse 5 $17,500
36 Bayerd Steve Asmussen 4 $266,000
37 Imperia Kiaran McLaughlin 4 $171,804
38 Cross the Line Jerry Hollendorfer 4 $100,000
39 Bluegrass Singer Marcus Vitali 2 $118,945
40 Hashtag Bourbon Kellyn Gorder 2 $74,117
41 Hollywood Critic Barbara Minshall 2 $35,528
+Pioneerof the West Mark Casse 2 $14,250
42 Private Prospect Michael Campbell 1 $138,000
43 Bench Warrant John Sadler 1 $91,890
+Ackeret Kiaran McLaughlin 1 $73,000
44 Juan and Bina Gustavo Delgado 1 $40,330
45 Another Lemon Drop Phil Bauer 1 $25,500
46 Tough Customer Wayne Catalano 1 $25,000
47 Tencendur George Weaver 1 $24,500
48 Harmonic Jerry Hollendorfer 1 $12,000
49 Hero Ten All Jeff Mullins 1 $9,250
+ - Not Triple Crown nominated
Well, we have 15 horses with 20 points going into the top point stakes races.
There are 21 options available for horses to get at least 20 points...and I have 24 horses in bold on the list which I believe are scheduled for another start before the Derby in a Derby prep.
So, there 20 points may not be enough as I originally stated, but we'll see.
top tier or "elite" Derby contenders (doesn't mean they would be my top pick for the roses, but just based on prep performance so far)
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Upstart
Carpe Diem
Materiality
2nd tier (horses that either appear a cut below the very best right now, or horses that we just don't know enough about until their next race)
International Star
Firing Line
Mubtaahij
Ami's Flatter
El Kabeir
Prospect Park
Far From Over
Bolo
Far Right
Made From Lucky
3rd tier i.e. "the rest" (horses that would be huge long shots if the Derby was run this weekend, but still have chances to improve and step it up before the big day)
Dubai Sky
Keen Ice
War Story
Metaboss
Daredevil
Frosted
Stanford
Ocean Knight
Divining Rod
Itsaknockout
Lord Nelson
etc etc etc
I assume you meant to remove Materiality from Tier 2 and only have him in Tier 1, PT.
Oops, yes.
2015 Kentucky Derby Points Standings
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 International Star Mike Maker 171 $940,979
2 Mubtaahij-IRE Mike de Kock 100 $1,400,000
3 Materiality Todd Pletcher 100 $632,028
4 Upstart Rick Violette, Jr. 76 $807,680
5 El Kabeir John Terranova II 75 $620,792
6 Dortmund Bob Baffert 70 $630,000
7 Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher 64 $870,000
8 American Pharoah Bob Baffert 60 $810,000
9 Itsaknockout Todd Pletcher 60 $288,560
10 Firing Line Simon Callaghan 58 $530,000
11 @ Dubai Sky Bill Mott 50 $371,780
12 War Story Tom Amoss 44 $195,000
13 Maftool Saeed bin Suroor 40 $630,595
14 Ami's Flatter Josie Carroll 40 $195,200
15 Stanford Todd Pletcher 40 $151,400
16 Conquest Typhoon Mark Casse 26 $430,827?
17 Far Right Ron Moquette 22 $385,906
18 Keen Ice Dale Romans 22 $136,520
19 Madefromlucky Todd Pletcher 20 $150,000
20 Prospect Park Cliff Sise Jr. 20 $80,000
21 @ Tiz Shea D Bill Mott 20 $80,000
22 Bold Conquest Steve Asmussen 17 $162,176
23 Mr. Z D. Wayne Lukas 14 $525,826
24 Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 13 $176,200
25 Classy Class Kiaran McLaughlin 13 $85,000
26 The Truth or Else Kenny McPeek 11 $173,500
27 Ocho Ocho Ocho Jim Cassidy 10 $660,250
28 Daredevil Todd Pletcher 10 $339,600
29 Far From Over Todd Pletcher 10 $150,000
30 Pain and Misery Henry Dominguez 10 $145,350
31 Metaboss Jeff Bonde 10 $136,450
32 Bolo Carla Gaines 10 $94,980
33 @ Divining Rod Arnaud Delacour 10 $75,000
34 Firespike Mike Maker 10 $51,816
35 Frammento Nick Zito 10 $42,000
36 Tiznow R J Steve Asmussen 7 $72,000
37 Rock Shandy Peter Miller 6 $56,000
38 St. Joe Bay Peter Miller 6 $50,500
39 Task Force Glory Mike Maker 5 $29,625
40 Toasting Master Dale Romans 5 $21,000
41 Danzig Moon Mark Casse 5 $17,500
42 Bayerd Steve Asmussen 4 $266,000
43 Cross the Line Jerry Hollendorfer 4 $100,000
44 Nasa John Servis 4 $40,000
45 Bluegrass Singer Marcus Vitali 2 $118,945
46 Juan and Bina Gustavo Delgado 1 $40,330
47 Another Lemon Drop Phil Bauer 1 $25,500
48 Tough Customer Wayne Catalano 1 $25,000
49 Tencendur George Weaver 1 $24,500
50 Harmonic Jerry Hollendorfer 1 $12,000
51 Hero Ten All Jeff Mullins 1 $9,250
@ - Late Triple Crown nomination
So only El Kabeir has a chance to reach a higher point total mark that International Star.
20 points is the bottom threshold with 21 horses being reached since I do not believe that Maftool will be pointed to the Kentucky Derby.
A lot of racing to go with 4 more 100 point races. 3 next week.
Those horses in bold (17) are expected to enter and run in another pre-Derby race including 5-8
http://www.drf.com/news/far-over-injured-out-wood (http://www.drf.com/news/far-over-injured-out-wood)
Far From Over out- hair line fracture...
Man, the only luck that guy has is bad
Mr. Z to get 60 days off tweeted by Justin Zayat.
Dortmund looked great, though he had everything his own way... will def. be one of the top 2 betting choices in KY I'd imagine.
Dortmund is a big boy. How big is he.
Quote from: afleetphil on April 05, 2015, 10:18:32 AM
Dortmund is a big boy. How big is he.
17.2 hands is the number I'm hearing.
Quote from: afleetphil on April 05, 2015, 10:18:32 AM
Dortmund is a big boy. How big is he.
He's a giant at 17 hands tall and weighing 1,188 pounds
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-santa-anita-derby-20150404-story.html
2015 Kentucky Derby Points Standings
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 International Star Mike Maker 171 $940,979
2 Dortmund Bob Baffert 170 $1,230,000
3 Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher 164 $1,470,000
4 Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 113 $776,200
5 Mubtaahij-IRE Mike de Kock 100 $1,400,000
6 Materiality Todd Pletcher 100 $632,028
7 El Kabeir John Terranova II 95 $720,792
8 Upstart Rick Violette, Jr. 76 $807,680
9 American Pharoah Bob Baffert 60 $810,000
10 Itsaknockout Todd Pletcher 60 $288,560
11 Firing Line Simon Callaghan 58 $530,000
12 Danzig Moon Mark Casse 45 $217,500
13 War Story Tom Amoss 44 $195,000
14 Tencendur George Weaver 41 $224,500
15 Maftool Saeed bin Suroor 40 $630,595
16 One Lucky Dane Bob Baffert 40 $200,000
17 Ami's Flatter Josie Carroll 40 $195,200
18 Stanford Todd Pletcher 40 $151,400
19 Ocho Ocho Ocho Jim Cassidy 30 $760,250
20 Bolo Carla Gaines 30 $214,980
21 Prospect Park Cliff Sise Jr. 30 $130,000
22 Conquest Typhoon Mark Casse 26 $430,827
23 Far Right Ron Moquette 22 $385,906
24 Keen Ice Dale Romans 22 $136,520
25 Daredevil Todd Pletcher 20 $389,600
26 Madefromlucky Todd Pletcher 20 $150,000
27 Tiz Shea D Bill Mott 20 $110,000
28 Frammento Nick Zito 20 $92,800
29 Bold Conquest Steve Asmussen 17 $162,176
30 Mr. Z D. Wayne Lukas 14 $525,826
31 Classy Class Kiaran McLaughlin 13 $115,000
32 The Truth or Else Kenny McPeek 11 $173,500
33 Pain and Misery Henry Dominguez 10 $145,350
34 Metaboss Jeff Bonde 10 $136,450
35 Divining Rod Arnaud Delacour 10 $75,000
36 Firespike Mike Maker 10 $51,816
37 Tiznow R J Steve Asmussen 7 $72,000
38 Rock Shandy Peter Miller 6 $56,000
39 St. Joe Bay Peter Miller 6 $50,500
40 Toasting Master Dale Romans 5 $31,000
41 Task Force Glory Mike Maker 5 $29,625
42 Bayerd Steve Asmussen 4 $266,000
43 Cross the Line Jerry Hollendorfer 4 $120,000
44 Nasa John Servis 4 $40,000
45 Bluegrass Singer Marcus Vitali 2 $118,945
46 Juan and Bina Gustavo Delgado 1 $40,330
47 Another Lemon Drop Phil Bauer 1 $25,500
48 Tough Customer Wayne Catalano 1 $25,000
49 Harmonic Jerry Hollendorfer 1 $12,000
50 Hero Ten All Jeff Mullins 1 $9,250
We'll see who decides to opt against the Kentucky Derby.
I think two horses that may are Maftool and Ocho Ocho Ocho.
Prospect Park is a horse that I do not think wants any part of more distance so his connections said they would play it by ear as well and let the horse decide what he wants to do. He seemed so promising in the San Felipe.
Stanford also looked like he was tiring in the stretch and I really do not know that he wants more than 9 furlongs.
And El Kabeir has to be figured out. I think the connections want to go to the Derby, but if they do something has to change if he is going to be competitive.
War Story is a horse that also seems to not relish longer distances.
I also do not think that Conquest Typhoon will be pointed to the Derby. I believe Mark Casse's Danzig Moon will, though, but Derby fever has a funny ways of changing minds.
Daredevil also appears to be distance challenged, so even with his points I do not know that he would go.
This provides 8 horses who if they defected would get the point threshold down to 20 points depending upon what happens next weekend.
If that happened, the lowest graded stakes earnings total to enter the derby would be $110,000 for Tiz Shea D or $92,800 for Frammento. As it stands now, Stanford would have the lowest total with $151,000. Thus, it seems like the point system has reduce the earnings total to get into the Derby. This could be because of the Illinois Derby and other graded stakes which are not included in the points system.
The potential Arkansas Derby entrants are in bold.
1st tier
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Upstart
Carpe Diem
Materiality
Frosted
2nd tier
Firing Line
International Star
Mubtaahij
Ami's Flatter
El Kabeir
Far Right
Madefromlucky
One Lucky Dane
Danzig Moon
3rd tier
Prospect Park
Bolo
Tencendur
Keen Ice
War Story
Metaboss
Stanford
Ocean Knight?
Divining Rod
Itsaknockout
etc etc etc
I agree across the board except for Materiality who, although he won the Florida Derby, I am just not sold on given Apollo's curse and all.
I know he has two 9 furlong wins and he's an Afleet Alex, but I am still skeptical.
Upstart fell a little bit on my list, but I still can see him as a top tier since I believe his conditioning in Florida will move him forward.
With one big prep left to run I filtered the top 18 or so horses through a system:
1st or 2nd in final prep (82% of the last 23 Derby winners)
broke maiden in 1st or 2nd career race (74% of last 23)
BSF of 103 or higher in final prep race (53% of the last 15 winners)
The only horses that ticked all 3 categories were Materiality, Upstart and Dortmund.
2 of 3: Carpe Diem, Frosted, Firing Line, Tencendur, and Stanford
I did not include Maftool since he probably won't run nor American Pharoah, Far Right, or The Truth or Else since they run this weekend.
Not saying I would use or necessarily trust this system, but it does narrow things down a bit.
Quote from: peeptoad on April 08, 2015, 06:41:46 AM
With one big prep left to run I filtered the top 18 or so horses through a system:
1st or 2nd in final prep (82% of the last 23 Derby winners)
broke maiden in 1st or 2nd career race (74% of last 23)
BSF of 103 or higher in final prep race (53% of the last 15 winners)
I think stats like these come in handy after you handicap
and your thinking, I might as well throw a dart. Instead
you come up with some solid info that makes you pick one horse over the other
I think all it did in this case was to narrow down the top horses (that most of us can agree upon by virtue of the top 10 lists floating around all over the place). The only horse it really eliminates from the elite is Carpe Diem, a horse that I might take a stand against for the win spot anyway. For other reasons Materiality is also not among my very top prospects for the win, although he has a brialliance to him that Carpe Diem has not shown yet.
The one that I think has the most Brilliance is Firing Line
Prospect Park off the Derby Trail with high white cell count.
2015 Kentucky Derby Points Standings
Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 International Star Mike Maker 171 $940,979
2 Dortmund Bob Baffert 170 $1,230,000
3 Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher 164 $1,470,000
4 American Pharoah Bob Baffert 160 $1,410,000
5 Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 113 $776,200
6 Mubtaahij-IRE Mike de Kock 100 $1,400,000
7 Materiality Todd Pletcher 100 $632,028
8 El Kabeir John Terranova II 95 $720,792
9 Upstart Rick Violette, Jr. 76 $807,680
10 Far Right Ron Moquette 62 $585,906
11 Itsaknockout Todd Pletcher 60 $288,560
12 Firing Line Simon Callaghan 58 $530,000
13 Danzig Moon Mark Casse 45 $217,500
14 War Story Tom Amoss 44 $195,000
15 Tencendur George Weaver 41 $224,500
16 One Lucky Dane Bob Baffert 40 $200,000
17 Stanford Todd Pletcher 40 $151,400
18 Mr. Z D. Wayne Lukas 34 $625,826
19 Ocho Ocho Ocho Jim Cassidy 30 $760,250
20 Bolo Carla Gaines 30 $214,980
21 Madefromlucky Todd Pletcher 30 $200,000
22 Keen Ice Dale Romans 22 $136,520
23 Frammento Nick Zito 20 $92,800
24 Bold Conquest Steve Asmussen 17 $192,176
25 The Truth or Else Kenny McPeek 11 $180,167
26 Metaboss Jeff Bonde 10 $136,450
27 Firespike Mike Maker 10 $51,816
28 Toasting Master Dale Romans 5 $31,000
29 Task Force Glory Mike Maker 5 $29,625
30 Cross the Line Jerry Hollendorfer 4 $120,000
31 Another Lemon Drop Phil Bauer 1 $25,500
What happened to all the other horses that were on this list?
There were as many as 51 horses and now there are 31...
Looks like 30 gets you in the gate as I thought...
So much for Mr. Z getting a rest. I guess he will head to the Derby as well.
Its a question if Bolo goes. Maybe the owners will opt for the Churchill track and hoping it plays to Bolo's liking.
It would be a shame if Made From Lucky does not get in.
All final preps have now been run and the horses within each tier are in some sort of vague hierarchical order (with amphibian comments):
1st tier
American Pharoah- looks solid, though he likely won't be my top pick due to probable price and remaining question marks
Frosted- if he continues improvement off last he will be right there. Would like to see him lay closer to pace, otherwise traffic looms
Dortmund- has done nothing wrong and is every bit as good as those above him. I question his relative closing pace and his ability to negotiate traffic effectively (which he will probably encounter)
Carpe Diem- solid, consistent, but appears to grind out the win more than some of the others. 3rd off the layoff will probably produce his best effort.
Upstart- recent fever puts his ranking as a bit of a question mark and his connections seem very cautious per interviews
Materiality- has obvious ability, but that Apollo is a big one I suspect it won't be broken in a year with so many other solid contenders
2nd tier
Firing Line- top of the 2nd tier. Main question for me is 10F. My suspicion is that 9F is about the limit and 8.5 more reasonable.
International Star- a clear cut below the top level, but consistent and game. Might be better at 9F and need to see how he trains at CD since all big wins came at FG.
Mubtaahij- lots of question marks due to the locale he ships in from. He still has only run at one dirt track, so the surface question remains. Don't think distance will be an issue, but he needs to show he can overcome adversity at the top level
Far Right- interesting contender who might be primed to peak after the break between last prep and the Southwest, still needs to run faster and again traffic problems loom with his running style
One Lucky Dane- his SA Derby effort was excellent all things considered, but really is a cut below and suspect 10F might be pushing it.
El Kabeir- 9F is about the cap and a flat mile probably more his game. Also not fast enough overall and the move to running from off the pace might create problems
Ami's Flatter- 10F may be no problem, but isn't fast enough to contend for more than a minor award
Danzig Moon- see Ami's Flatter comment
3rd tier
Stanford- could improve again for the Derby, but that still won't be enough
Tencendur- not fast enough and probably best going shorter- is improving though.
War Story- Internationl Star has his number and he is in tier 2. 'nuff said.
Bolo- probably better suited to turf, but could possibly round out the super given 10 panels
Itsaknockout- not fast enough, probably should not have been elevated in the FOY and he was exposed in the FL Derby
Ocho Ocho Ocho- wants no part of 10F and isn't fast enough anyway
Mr Z- will make it into the gate and likely be a pace presence, but he would be a shocker in the win circle
I would add Keen Ice to the last tier. I think he could do really well if he gets in.
I still want to hear who your Commanding Curve is this year. :)
Keen Ice has 22 pts. which is not enough. I also dropped Madefromlucky who sits right above Keen on the points list. Either one could make the gate with a few defections.
Would have to think about my CC for this year, but maybe Far Right.
Quote from: peeptoad on April 13, 2015, 09:21:17 AM
Keen Ice has 22 pts. which is not enough. I also dropped Madefromlucky who sits right above Keen on the points list. Either one could make the gate with a few defections.
Would have to think about my CC for this year, but maybe Far Right.
Right. As much as I like Madefromlucky, I didn't ask for him to be added because I was disappointed with his performance in the Arkansas Derby. I was looking for more and I did not see it. I really thought he would be better than Far Right and was wrong.
Keen Ice, though, I think will get in and has the chops to make a difference. I didn't realize that the list had all 20 starters.
I wonder which horse JR will wind up on? He seems to be riding all the winners.
Short video at the Bloodhorse with Castellano saying he doesn't have a mount :chickendance:
Early Derby pps courtesy of BRIS:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KentuckyDerby15.pdf (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KentuckyDerby15.pdf)
I would still like to know which horse JR is riding and can't
believe no one has tried to lock up Castellano.
Quote from: Senator L on April 17, 2015, 07:33:03 AM
I would still like to know which horse JR is riding and can't
believe no one has tried to lock up Castellano.
I am certain he will get one of the Pletcher mounts or maybe El Kabeir.
Saez is on Itsaknockout
Velazquez on Carpe Diem
Which leaves Materiality
Stanford is also a possibility if the owners want a change.
And then Madefromlucky may make it as well.
Heading to the Derby - looks like Bolo is the only one who is not definite yet in the top 20 - but his owner is leaning toward going.
Which means Keen Ice and Frammento could be on the outside looking in...unless there are defections.
1
International Star Mike Maker 171 $940,979
2
Dortmund Bob Baffert 170 $1,230,000
3
Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher 164 $1,470,000
4
American Pharoah Bob Baffert 160 $1,410,000
5
Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 113 $776,200
6
Mubtaahij-IRE Mike de Kock 100 $1,400,000
7
Materiality Todd Pletcher 100 $632,028
8
El Kabeir John Terranova II 95 $720,792
9
Upstart Rick Violette, Jr. 76 $807,680
10
Far Right Ron Moquette 62 $585,906
11
Itsaknockout Todd Pletcher 60 $288,560
12
Firing Line Simon Callaghan 58 $530,000
13
Danzig Moon Mark Casse 45 $217,500
14
War Story Tom Amoss 44 $195,000
15
Tencendur George Weaver 41 $224,500
16
One Lucky Dane Bob Baffert 40 $200,000
17
Stanford Todd Pletcher 40 $151,400
18
Mr. Z D. Wayne Lukas 34 $625,826
19
Ocho Ocho Ocho Jim Cassidy 30 $760,250
20 Bolo Carla Gaines 30 $214,980
21 Madefromlucky Todd Pletcher 30 $200,000
22 Keen Ice Dale Romans 22 $136,520
23 Frammento Nick Zito 20 $92,800
24 Bold Conquest Steve Asmussen 17 $192,176
25 The Truth or Else Kenny McPeek 11 $180,167
26 Metaboss Jeff Bonde 10 $136,450
27 Firespike Mike Maker 10 $51,816
28 Toasting Master Dale Romans 5 $31,000
29 Task Force Glory Mike Maker 5 $29,625
30 Cross the Line Jerry Hollendorfer 4 $120,000
31 Another Lemon Drop Phil Bauer 1 $25,500
Well Taz we were close on the points issue. At the beginning of
the thread you thought 20 and I thought 40
and Bolo is horse#20 with 30 points...we middle it :chickendance:
I hope Zito gets his horse in. He seems to be pretty high on him
I'm starting to like the one from Dubai. His last race was pretty special :celebrate:
That's Mubtaahij and he's the ultimate wild card imo.
He could run decently or be nowhere and neither would be too much of a shock. I would probably be more shocked if he actually won though. Too many unknowns to form a solid opinion, but he ships overseas first time, has never run on any dirt track other than Meydan, and the dirt company he's kept has been questionable, though not completely without merit.
My biggest issue with him though is that his "toughest" race to date was the UAE Derby and he got an absolutely perfect set up in that race, tracking 3 dueling leaders on the rail. He was in the cat bird seat the whole way around and the margin is deceptive since all 3 hit the wall coming down the stretch. His biggest foe (likely) in that race also had a terrible trip. Yeah, he might get 10F, but is he going to get the trip? The US horses are far classier than what he's faced in Dubai thus far, and he gets 19 other horses to maneuver through to make a run and that's after shipping halfway around the world. At least they shipped him early. I would need 20/1 minimum to consider him for the win spot (and that's if he gets a decent post).
Having said all that he does look like one of the best winners of the UAE race to ship for the Derby, so who knows?
You make some good points, I doubt if he will be 20-1 though. If
he is I'll bet him :chickendance: 3 races back in the 2000 Guineas
he was down on the rail and fought for 2nd. Seems like a tough horse
which you need in the Derby. On the other hand Dortmund drilled
a bullet at SA - catch me if you can :chickendance:
One Lucky Dane off Derby trail:
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/one-lucky-dane-out-of-kentucky-derby/ (http://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/one-lucky-dane-out-of-kentucky-derby/)
Quote from: Senator L on April 17, 2015, 07:33:03 AM
I would still like to know which horse JR is riding and can't
believe no one has tried to lock up Castellano.
http://www.drf.com/news/premium/worst-news-comes-last-11-derby-workers (http://www.drf.com/news/premium/worst-news-comes-last-11-derby-workers)
John Velazquez has to choose between Carpe Diem and Materiality. Javier Castellano and Mike Smith have been mentioned by Pletcher as possible replacements for whoever Velazquez doesn't choose, though Smith is in play for Bolo and Far Right, too. :thumbsup:
Bejarano is confirmed for Bolo
Quote from: Senator L on April 17, 2015, 08:38:57 PM
Well Taz we were close on the points issue. At the beginning of
the thread you thought 20 and I thought 40
and Bolo is horse#20 with 30 points...we middle it :chickendance:
I was really happy at the 30 point cut off...each year its a little higher...which makes sense. It means the system is getting more competitive which I think you want.
With One Lucky Dane out that makes 21 and Madefromlucky with 30 points.
I read somewhere - that someone thought it would be a good idea to let the connections choose post positions in order of the final point tally which I like because it would prevent the top horses who have earned the most points from getting a lousy post position which I would think Churchill would want to do.
1
International Star Mike Maker 171 $940,979
2
Dortmund Bob Baffert 170 $1,230,000
3
Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher 164 $1,470,000
4
American Pharoah Bob Baffert 160 $1,410,000
5
Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 113 $776,200
6
Mubtaahij-IRE Mike de Kock 100 $1,400,000
7
Materiality Todd Pletcher 100 $632,028
8
El Kabeir John Terranova II 95 $720,792
9
Upstart Rick Violette, Jr. 76 $807,680
10
Far Right Ron Moquette 62 $585,906
11
Itsaknockout Todd Pletcher 60 $288,560
12
Firing Line Simon Callaghan 58 $530,000
13
Danzig Moon Mark Casse 45 $217,500
14
War Story Tom Amoss 44 $195,000
15
Tencendur George Weaver 41 $224,500
16 One Lucky Dane Bob Baffert 40 $200,00017
Stanford Todd Pletcher 40 $151,400
18
Mr. Z D. Wayne Lukas 34 $625,826
19
Ocho Ocho Ocho Jim Cassidy 30 $760,250
20
Bolo Carla Gaines 30 $214,980
21
Madefromlucky Todd Pletcher 30 $200,000
22 Keen Ice Dale Romans 22 $136,520
23 Frammento Nick Zito 20 $92,800
24 Bold Conquest Steve Asmussen 17 $192,176
25 The Truth or Else Kenny McPeek 11 $180,167
26 Metaboss Jeff Bonde 10 $136,450
27 Firespike Mike Maker 10 $51,816
28 Toasting Master Dale Romans 5 $31,000
29 Task Force Glory Mike Maker 5 $29,625
30 Cross the Line Jerry Hollendorfer 4 $120,000
31 Another Lemon Drop Phil Bauer 1 $25,500
Putting Keen Ice in play next and then Frammento.
Pletcher gets his 5.
Baffert down to 2.
I like the idea of most points gets to pick post position.
I thought they had that some years back but switched it for some
reason. I have a crumby memory though :chickendance:
It used to be like this
They pick your number,you pick your pp
Quote from: Raven on April 20, 2015, 07:45:11 PM
It used to be like this
They pick your number,you pick your pp
:thanks:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=48874 (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=48874)
Johnny V confirmed on Carpe Diem, Castellano gets Materiality, Smith sticks with Far Right...
Javier's got a good mount.
I thought Johnny would stay with Carpe Diem.
So Stanford and Itsaknockout are probably sticking with their jocks.
Derby week TV schedule:
http://www.kentuckyderby.ag/kentuckyderby-schedule.php (http://www.kentuckyderby.ag/kentuckyderby-schedule.php)
Not sure how I will bet yet since I'm (logically) waiting for the pp draw.
Barring a bad draw these are my top picks for the win:
1. Frosted
2. American Pharoah
3. Carpe Diem
4. Upstart
possible horses to use underneath for exotics (I'm probably playing the exacta and super, possibly the tri):
El Kabeir
Stanford
Tencendur
Danzig Moon
Keen Ice
Far Right
still not sure what to do with Mubtaahij. Thinking about tossing him. For the super I would go much deeper in the bottom 2 spots... would include Moobs and Int'l Star as well. Possibly Firing Line or Dortmund, though I like them for the super only.
I didn't think you could do dime supers on the derby
Maybe you can't... I thought I read somewhere they had the dime super. If not then I'll go with the .50 option if that's available... it's not a bet I normally make except on the biggest race days.
edit: just confirmed the super is $1 minimum... still taking a shot most likely.
Madefromlucky out and Bold Conquest off AE list.
Keen Ice in. So we're at 22 points and holding for entry into the Kentucky Derby.
1 International Star Mike Maker 171 $940,979
2 Dortmund Bob Baffert 170 $1,230,000
3 Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher 164 $1,470,000
4 American Pharoah Bob Baffert 160 $1,410,000
5 Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 113 $776,200
6 Mubtaahij-IRE Mike de Kock 100 $1,400,000
7 Materiality Todd Pletcher 100 $632,028
8 El Kabeir John Terranova II 95 $720,792
9 Upstart Rick Violette, Jr. 76 $807,680
10 Far Right Ron Moquette 62 $585,906
11 Itsaknockout Todd Pletcher 60 $288,560
12 Firing Line Simon Callaghan 58 $530,000
13 Danzig Moon Mark Casse 45 $217,500
14 War Story Tom Amoss 44 $195,000
15 Tencendur George Weaver 41 $224,500
16 One Lucky Dane Bob Baffert 40 $200,000
17 Stanford Todd Pletcher 40 $151,400
18 Mr. Z D. Wayne Lukas 34 $625,826
19 Ocho Ocho Ocho Jim Cassidy 30 $760,250
20 Bolo Carla Gaines 30 $214,980
21 Madefromlucky Todd Pletcher 30 $200,000
22 Keen Ice Dale Romans 22 $136,520
23 Frammento Nick Zito 20 $92,800
24 Bold Conquest Steve Asmussen 17 $192,176
25 The Truth or Else Kenny McPeek 11 $180,167
26 Metaboss Jeff Bonde 10 $136,450
27 Firespike Mike Maker 10 $51,816
28 Toasting Master Dale Romans 5 $31,000
29 Task Force Glory Mike Maker 5 $29,625
30 Cross the Line Jerry Hollendorfer 4 $120,000
31 Another Lemon Drop Phil Bauer 1 $25,500
Pletcher down to 4.
Baffert still at 2.
Romans gets his one.
Who knows if Zito and/or McPeek will get theirs.
I'm going to try the super this year as the past while
I have been playing .20 cent supers. Seems the cheaper and
more focused I get the more I hit.
The Derby super pays a small fortune :chickendance:
Good luck.
Mubtaahij is an intriguing choice.
He seems to be training well.
Too bad about the FDA not approving his feed.