Should the Triple Crown Be Changed?

[curtis]

I have said this for years- it needs to be limited to 14, like the others. Too much traffic- and more times than not, the best horse does not win.  This year, the best horse did win. 

You really believe that most Derby winners were not the best horse?  You're certainly entitled but it seems like hyperbole.

[curtis]

And Shared Belief.

Caleb Keller on TVG yesterday was discussing his predictions for the second half of 2014 from three year olds and his top three went:

1. Shared Belief
2. Danza
3. California Chrome
4. Tonalist

My list would have been slightly different. 

I would have kept California Chrome number 1 - but his point may be that Shared Belief will be running in many more races than California Chrome.

Chrome will be resting while Shared Belief is hopefully burning up the track on the East coast. I hope I will be seeing an awful lot of Mr. Ward and Mr. Hollendorfer this summer.

Shared Belief if healthy could have 6 more races this year vs. Chrome's max being 3, and I would say maybe just 2.

California Chrome Possible Schedule:
8/24 G1 Pacific Classic*
9/27 G1 Awesome Again
11/2 G1 Breeders Cup Classic

I do not have the Travers Stakes or the Pennsylvania Derby as a possibility because while it would give him a chance to face lesser company, I do not think he should ship again. I think he should be allowed to rest at home. I also do not think he should race in G2 company any more.  Of course, that limits his options to the more difficult Pacific Classic for his return race - which is why I think he'll be off until the Awesome Again. If I had my choice I'd have the Pennsylvania Derby be a G1 and let him run there...but again I do not like the shipping even if its just for a quick race.

Shared Belief possible schedule:
7/5/ G2 Los Alamitos Derby
7/27 G1 Haskell Invitational
8/23 G1 Travers Stakes
9/27 G1 Awesome Again/ 9/20 G2 Pennsylvania Derby
11/1 G1 Dirt Mile*/11/2 G1 Breeders Cup Classic
G1 Cigar Mile* option only if he runs in the Travers or BC Classic and does poorly at that distance.

I would be surprised and disappointed if California Chrome were to surface in the Pacific Classic.  There is a race later that same week restricted to three-year-olds that would be a much better spot for him to return.  I hope he goes there if at all.

[curtis]

No. We'll see another TC winner when a horse good enough (and one that has a clear separation from the rest of his crop in terms of talent) comes along. I don't think anything should be changed with regards to the races or spacing.

I completely agree, it will happen when it happens.  I think the two articles cited supra are knee jerk reactions.  I've never heard anyone refer to Stage Door Johnny with disdain for being a new shooter in 1968.  But then again there was no internet.

[The Tin Man]

I would be surprised and disappointed if California Chrome were to surface in the Pacific Classic.  There is a race later that same week restricted to three-year-olds that would be a much better spot for him to return.  I hope he goes there if at all.

Be prepared to be surprised and disappointed then ...

I'm hearing 1 race and then the BC ... guess it's always possible that could change though.

These connections care about the horse first and foremost. They're plotting a schedule that's best for him now ... not awards.

By the way ... he's doing very well and h is foot is healing up quickly. He should be off for some ranch R & R in a week to 10 days if all continues to go well.

[peeptoad]

Be prepared to be surprised and disappointed then ...

I'm hearing 1 race and then the BC ... guess it's always possible that could change though.

These connections care about the horse first and foremost. They're plotting a schedule that's best for him now ... not awards.

By the way ... he's doing very well and h is foot is healing up quickly. He should be off for some ranch R & R in a week to 10 days if all continues to go well.

When the layoff timeframe was announced I didn't expect to see him resurface before the Awesome Again. I assume he goes there and then the Classic. Chrome has never had  real break since he began his racing career last spring. This is a well deserved break imo and hopefully they have a really nicely seasoned horse ready to jump forward as a 4yo regardless of what happens at the end of this year.

[curtis]

Be prepared to be surprised and disappointed then ...

I'm hearing 1 race and then the BC ... guess it's always possible that could change though.

These connections care about the horse first and foremost. They're plotting a schedule that's best for him now ... not awards.

By the way ... he's doing very well and h is foot is healing up quickly. He should be off for some ranch R & R in a week to 10 days if all continues to go well.

But the Pacific Classic?  That seems to me to be the antithesis to what you would do if you are looking out for the horse.  If the timing is right, I'd try the El Cajon (which could have a money condition that would prohibit his entry as I don't have the conditions in front of me), the race formerly known as the Goodwood and then the BC Classic.  If it is one start to prep for the BC then the former Goodwood.  I would think the Pacific Classic is a race you would enter only if you were worried about awards.

[The Tin Man]

I don't know WHICH race they're targeting Pre-BC ... But my money is on their skipping the Pacific Classic. I'm betting NEXT year the the big 3 Socal races are a goal though.

I'm guessing Awesome Again and then BC ... This year.

Steven called my girlfriend today. We're tentatively supposed to hang out with them on Los Alamitos Derby day ... if it goes down and he gives me an idea of which race and is OK with my publicizing it, I'll let it be known here.

[peeptoad]

Steven called my girlfriend today. We're tentatively supposed to hang out with them on Los Alamitos Derby day ... if it goes down and he gives me an idea of which race and is OK with my publicizing it, I'll let it be known here.

Thanks TTM. Much appreciated..

[The Tin Man]

Thanks TTM. Much appreciated..

My pleasure. 

[Man o Taz]

I would be surprised and disappointed if California Chrome were to surface in the Pacific Classic.  There is a race later that same week restricted to three-year-olds that would be a much better spot for him to return.  I hope he goes there if at all.

So would I. I do not think its a good fit.

However, I don't think you bring back a possible horse of the year in an allowance or optional claiming race.

For my money, he should not run in anything less than a G1 - though I could see him returning in the G2 Pennsylvania Derby - though I do not like the idea of his

What are the three year old stakes races for late August and September at Del Mar and Santa Anita?

I only know the ones out East which regularly attract horses from the West:

Blind Luck to the Cotillion
Colonel John to the Travers Stakes
Handsome Mike to the Pennsylvania Derby

[afleetphil]

I'd love to see Chrome in The Travers. Healthy, rested and ready to go. But I don't see him coming east again.

[curtis]

So would I. I do not think its a good fit.

However, I don't think you bring back a possible horse of the year in an allowance or optional claiming race.

For my money, he should not run in anything less than a G1 - though I could see him returning in the G2 Pennsylvania Derby - though I do not like the idea of his

What are the three year old stakes races for late August and September at Del Mar and Santa Anita?

I only know the ones out East which regularly attract horses from the West:

Blind Luck to the Cotillion
Colonel John to the Travers Stakes
Handsome Mike to the Pennsylvania Derby

There is a 3-yo stake at Del Mar called the El Cajon the Friday following the Pacific Classic.  Beholder ran in the filly version of it last year.  It would be a paid workout but would also be a nice way to prep him for his fall campaign.  This is of course assuming he'll be ready to race by the end of August.

[Man o Taz]

curtis:

I would think if the right race came up the connections might run him.

However, The Tin Man indicating that the connections want to run him only two more times this year including the BC Classic likely means a late September prep. The question is whether he faces older horses once or twice. If he is to stay on the West coast, that would likely mean facing older horses twice. If he comes East once more - he could enter the Pennsylvania Derby.

At this moment, he certainly is the leader for the three year old Eclipse award.

However, with his being off for the summer a new challenger could emerge.

The potential challengers that I see are Danza, Shared Belief (based upon his talent), Tonalist, and Wicked Strong.

Certainly, Share Belief has to play catch up with those three, but they have a G1 win each. Shared Belief, should he run in and win the Haskell would be on par with them.

The Travers Stakes will determine who the chief challenger is...if any of them win the race.

And then it will likely be who can best older horses. If California Chrome can do it either in a BC prep or the Classic he is the shoe in for HOTY. If his challengers can do it in a BC prep they may take top three year old away from California Chrome if they can best older horses and he does not.

My hope is that we get to see all of these horses running next year.

I think we have a strong crop of older horses this year.  It would be nice to see the same next year.

[Dusty]

There is a 3-yo stake at Del Mar called the El Cajon the Friday following the Pacific Classic.  Beholder ran in the filly version of it last year.  It would be a paid workout but would also be a nice way to prep him for his fall campaign.  This is of course assuming he'll be ready to race by the end of August.

I don't like that o[tion at all - STAY AWAY from DelMAr

[curtis]

I don't like that o[tion at all - STAY AWAY from DelMAr

Did you get sick on a Del Margarita or something?  If the El Cajon doesn't work there is always the Pomona Derby at Cypress.