Comments and odds by Brad Free DRF
Songbird Jerry Hollendorfer 95-101-98 5-2 Cotillion Stakes, PRX, 9/24
Undefeated 3yo filly seeks win No. 11 Sat at PRX
Beholder Richard Mandella 106-101-101 3-1 Zenyatta Stakes, SA, 10/1
Back home with f & m, SA record = 13 wins, 14 starts
Stellar Wind John Sadler 102-99-98 5-1 Zenyatta Stakes, SA, 10/1
Fresh, lightly raced, upset Beholder two months ago
Cavorting Kiaran McLaughlin 102-102-100 6-1 Breeders' Cup Distaff, SA, 11/4
More than one-turn specialist, won G1 route SAR
Curalina Todd Pletcher 101-105-96 8-1 Breeders' Cup Distaff, SA, 11/4
Runs well fresh, will train to race ala Stop'maria 2015
Cathryn Sophia John Servis 95-95-95 12-1 Cotillion Stakes, PRX, 9/24
Would be third to win Ky Oaks, Distaff same year
Forever Unbridled Dallas Stewart 101-98-99 15-1 Spinster, KEE, 10/9 or BC Distaff
Foiled three times by 'Chatterbox, twice by Cavorting
Tara's Tango Jerry Hollendorfer 90-94-96 20-1 Zenyatta Stakes, SA, 10/1
G1 route winner could end up running in F&M Sprint
Land Over Sea Doug O'Neill 68-75-91 30-1 Cotillion Stakes, PRX, 9/24
Returns to dirt Sat at PRX, faces nemisis Songbird
Corona Del Inca (ARG) Guillermo Frankel NA-NA-NA 30-1 Breeders' Cup Distaff, SA, 11/4
Argentina WAYI upset in May, now training at SA
Other contenders
Carina Mia
Genre
Lewis Bay
Makena
Paid Up Subscriber
Vale Dori
I would take 5/2 on Songbird all day long
Quote from: Senator L on September 21, 2016, 06:40:16 PM
I would take 5/2 on Songbird all day long
I doubt if you'll end up getting that......or if you'd cash.😉
Despite her losses this year, I'll still take Beholder.
Quote from: Zenyatta on September 21, 2016, 11:29:19 PM
Despite her losses this year, I'll still take Beholder.
A wise move.
Beholder to me stands atop the Distaff Division.
Stellar Wind was impressive in the Clement Hirsch, but I liken that race to California Chrome facing Shared Belief in the San Antonio last year. Chrome was not fully cranked for the race, and neither was Beholder. Stellar Wind is a classy horse, but Beholder is still the defending distaff champion and I believe her form is still the best in the division. I like Stellar Wind, Songbird, and Cavorting a lot, but believe that if all were at their best they could not hold a candle to Beholder.
I hope that after Beholder disposes of the field in the Distaff and shows her best form of the year, that she will be pointed to the BC Classic where she rightfully belongs. You do not return for a 6 year old racing campaign to run in the Distaff. She was impressive in the Pacific Classic even in defeat. I think she is the 2nd best 10 furlong horse in training right now superior even to Arrogate. Chrome is on top, but he did not manage a time as sharp as hers last year in the PC or a margin of victory. At her best, she is still a force to be reckoned with.
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 22, 2016, 12:02:25 PM
A wise move.
Beholder to me stands atop the Distaff Division.
Stellar Wind was impressive in the Clement Hirsch, but I liken that race to California Chrome facing Shared Belief in the San Antonio last year. Chrome was not fully cranked for the race, and neither was Beholder. Stellar Wind is a classy horse, but Beholder is still the defending distaff champion and I believe her form is still the best in the division. I like Stellar Wind, Songbird, and Cavorting a lot, but believe that if all were at their best they could not hold a candle to Beholder.
I hope that after Beholder disposes of the field in the Distaff and shows her best form of the year, that she will be pointed to the BC Classic where she rightfully belongs. You do not return for a 6 year old racing campaign to run in the Distaff. She was impressive in the Pacific Classic even in defeat. I think she is the 2nd best 10 furlong horse in training right now superior even to Arrogate. Chrome is on top, but he did not manage a time as sharp as hers last year in the PC or a margin of victory. At her best, she is still a force to be reckoned with.
Stellar Wind is a really nice filly. Yes the Clement Hirsch was her Del Mar goal but a less than completely fit Beholder has not just won graded races before but won them emphatically. I warn you, don't dismiss Stellar Wind. The San Antonio was not the goal for either Shared Belief or Chrome last year. I think the best horse won. I think he always was the best horse, Shared Belief just didn't get enough of a chance to win the right kind of races to prove it and be recognized for it at three.
I assume you mean the Zenyatta. He's forgotten more than I'll ever know but if Mandella plans on running Beholder in both the Distaff and the Classic, I'll have to have a little sit down with him. ;) I think she'll go in the Distaff when all said and done unless there are a slew of key declarations. Beholder is not as good as Chrome--at least this year's version of each. The race certainly didn't diminish her in my eyes. I rank her very high--most likely top 5--of all mares I've seen. The final times of two races run a year apart and the victory margin really don't have as much relevance as you are giving them. Final times are a product of the way the track is playing, the pace, the competition, etc.
Quote from: curtis on September 21, 2016, 08:16:52 PM
I doubt if you'll end up getting that......or if you'd cash.😉
Hopefully they both make it there healthy and the race will be on :racinghorse:
So...... on his early odds board Brad Free had it listed like this....
Songbird 5/2
Beholder 3/1
Stellar Wind 5/1
At this point I think you deserve a gold star if you can just identify who the public will make the betting favorite, what say you?
I'd say those odds are right on. It's going to be a hell of a race. I hope Songbird wins. And if she does she'll be 12 for 12 entering into Personal Ensign territory of all time great fillies and mares.
Quote from: stark on October 02, 2016, 09:47:31 AM
So...... on his early odds board Brad Free had it listed like this....
Songbird 5/2
Beholder 3/1
Stellar Wind 5/1
At this point I think you deserve a gold star if you can just identify who the public will make the betting favorite, what say you?
Brad is probably right because even though there are many that should, I'm not sure people are understanding what a class hike Songbird is in for. She should take any excuses away from Beholder as Songbird will provide the target that Beholder has been lacking the last two races. In essence, I hope Free is a little conservative and that Songbird will go down to the neighborhood of 9/5.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This.
Stellar Wind and Beholder are heads and tails above the rest including Songbird.
Beholder has not lost a step, she just has not gotten the race set up she needs. She bested Stellar Wind getting the 2 post in the Vanity. Next out, she is on the rail with the 1 post and loses by half a length, she draws the rail again with SW outside and the same result. She did not want the lead, but no one else took it. I think it could be a different result if she can draw outside.
This does not mean that Songbird cannot win. But it does mean that she will need to bring her A-game to do it.
I agree Brad is right she will be the favorite, but I like your morning line odds better. The public will make the undefeated horse the favorite whether that makes sense or not. They will see Beholder and Stellar Wind as older horses and see that as a bad thing when in my book it shows that they have been fighting in these tough battles all year, whereas Songbird is just joining the fray. Imagine being able to get 5/2 on Beholder at post-time.
Taz,
But my gut tells me Songbird is really special.
Songbird - wins - IMHO
SONGBIRD
I'll have to use a sick day, I don't want to miss this one :chickendance:
Quote from: Senator L on October 04, 2016, 04:40:41 AM
I'll have to use a sick day, I don't want to miss this one :chickendance:
Ditto. Well, vacation day probably... ;)
Years from now I can look back and get all sentimental about this horse or that mare and remember all the good times about various Breeders Cups, but for right now I'd like to make a profit ;)
Simple approach, which ever of the big three is the longest price on the toteboard is worth a bet, thanks in advance!
I dunno about betting the race unless you like a 4th horse.
Personally, I only bet a favorite that is a standout that is even money or better.
With (3) horses who all have a shot I usually just do a small action bet.
Saturday's are where the money is at. :chickendance:
But at Breeders Cup you only need one good winner to make your chicken dance
:chickendance: :chickendance: :chickendance: :chickendance: :chickendance: :chickendance:
Quote from: afleetphil on October 03, 2016, 01:14:17 PM
Taz,
But my gut tells me Songbird is really special.
I hear they're doing wonderful things now with probiotics. ;) They're all special, even the one's finishing up the track. I don't remember the race but it was the prep that preceded the Santa Susana Stakes--now the Santa Anita Oaks--in 1988. A nice, tiny, little filly named Goodbye Halo ranged up to Winning Colors, who had yet to be tested, and got by her. In the Santa Susana, Winning Colors beat Goodbye Halo like a rug. Sometimes even the really special ones need to learn what they need to do before they do it. I could be wrong--it happens on occasion ;), but I think Songbird will run really well, I just don't think she'll finish in the top two. If she does, she'll have run a race, I've yet to see from her. That doesn't mean she doesn't have it in her, I just think this is a bigger step up than many people think.
Arrogate did some amazing things against this field of three year old males. But they were what many see as a relatively weak crop of three year olds.
Songbird did some amazing things against three year old females all year. But we do not know how good this crop of three year old females is yet.
Neither horse has stepped up to face the class of North American racing this year. In 2014 the three year olds were dominant. In 2015 it was a mix. In 2016 I think that the older horses continue to be the most impressive for both sexes.
I agree this is a big class jump for Songbird. Win or lose she is a special horse. If she wins, she is that much more special and maybe we see her in the Pegasus.
But I think the older females need a bit more respect than I see them getting.
That said, Songbird's connections deserve a ton of respect for putting her undefeated record on the line in this race when they could have easily retired her for the year since winning it will garner her little more than the historical achievement of winning another BC race over a very strong field of challengers. The top 3 horses in here have 20 G1 wins between them.
Beholder half in 49, Songbird five eighths 58.60, BC Distaff works Thursday at Santa Anita.
Cavorting out of Breeders' Cup; likely to be retired
Three-time Grade 1 winning filly Cavorting has bruising of the cannon bones and will not run in the Breeders' Cup Distaff
Not sure why anybody is shipping in for this race....
Brad Free @BradFree1 Oct 12
Home team edge amplified:
BC Distaff favorites Songbird, Beholder, Stellar Wind combined 25 starts Santa Anita = 22 wins, 3 seconds
Because you have to be in it to win it.
And because this is a very nice distaff division this year.
As Larry Jones said in the post-race Spinster interview - there are 7 (now 6) horses that have a good chance to win this race.
:-)
Songbird, the undefeated champion, cruised through a six-furlong workout in 1:12.80 at dawn at Sana Anita on Thursday.
Ridden by Edgar Rodriguez, her regular exercise rider, Songbird worked alone and galloped out seven furlongs in 1:26.70 and a mile in 1:39.90, according to trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Songbird will start in the Breeders' Cup Distaff here on Nov. 4, her first start against older fillies and mares.
Rodriguez did not urge through the workout.
"She looked very nice this morning," Hollendorfer said. "She'll have two more works."
Beholder recorded a fast workout of five furlongs in 59.20 seconds at Santa Anita on Thursday in a drill that trainer Richard Mandella describes as her "serious" exercise in advance of the Breeders' Cup Distaff on Nov. 4.
Ridden by Gary Stevens, Beholder had fractions of 22.40 seconds for the opening quarter-mile and a half-mile in 46.60 seconds. Beholder worked with a stablemate, starting three lengths behind. Beholder was moved to the rail entering the stretch and finished two lengths clear.
"She's happy and in a good place," Stevens said. "We were rolling."
Stellar Wind got the better of Hard Aces in her Oct 21 work :chickendance:
There were 178 recorded works this morning at Santa Anita.
The only one designated breezing by track clockers was Songbird
Maybe they're biased? :chickendance:
Quote from: stark on October 27, 2016, 11:41:46 AM
There were 178 recorded works this morning at Santa Anita.
The only one designated breezing by track clockers was Songbird
That's interesting because while the track was playing a bit slower today, she usually works faster heading into a race, doesn't she?
If you look at her recent works she fired bullets and in this one she finished 26 of 75 which is a rarity for her.
Seems strange.
Songbird has never faced a horse that had previously run a 100+ BSF. In the Distaff she'll likely face 5.
I'm sticking with my original plan.....whichever of the big 3 offers the longest odds, that's my pick!!!
all I hope is Mike Smith lets her roll 23 46 109.2 and when they try
and go by her she opens up...can't wait, everyone's questions will be answered. :chickendance:
I also think Beholder will go off as the favorite.
I think more people bet on Beyers than wins
1 Songbird Jerry Hollendorfer Mike Smith 6-5
2 Land Over Sea Doug F. O'Neill Mario Gutierrez 30-1
3 Curalina Todd A. Pletcher John Velazquez 12-1
4 Corona Del Inca Guillermo Frenkel Santillan Pablo Falero 30-1
5 Stellar Wind John W. Sadler Victor Espinoza 5-2
6 Forever Unbridled Dallas Stewart Joel Rosario 12-1
7 I'm a Chatterbox J. Larry Jones Florent Geroux 12-1
8 Beholder Richard E. Mandella Gary Stevens 5-2
So, has Mandela been playing games and saving the best for last? ;)
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 02, 2016, 12:53:59 PM
So, has Mandela been playing games and saving the best for last? ;)
Haven't seen any quotes from Stevens, but I'm assuming he pee'd his pants at the post position draw. After the last two races he suggested he wanted to be outside and watch the race unfold, well......game on!
And others have been saying that her Thorograph figure last out was the 2nd bets of her career. I do not think she was comfortable in her last two races on the inside so we shall see what happens. There will be no excuses this time. Either she has it or she does not. I actually dreamt of her last night walking into the paddock and tossing her head around and throwing her attendants left and right with each head toss. Schooling in the paddock yesterday she looked keyed up. We shall see. .
With all due respect to Songbird's fans I think I am against her here, mainly because of her price. She's a standout 3yo, but a complete unknown against the solid older mares she will face here. Add to that the staunch pace pressure she should take early and I think she gets beat. Objectively, I refuse to take 6/5 on a horse that is doing the unknown for the first time, no matter how good they look beating up on weaker types. Logically, I have to go elsewhere, and I think this will be a battle between Beholder and Stellar Wind. If there is a meltdown, then I like Forever Unbridled to close for at least a piece.
BEHOLDER for me.
If I put Forever Unbridled on the tickets that'll spice up the exotics, Stellar Wind from a price point will be my toss.
105
This was the best finish we could have hoped for (unless you bet Stellar Wind, lol). Props to Beholder!! I was hoping she'd go out a winner!!
The photo of the finish showed it couldn't have been closer
DEL MAR, Calif. – Songbird, beaten a nose in the Breeders' Cup Distaff at Santa Anita on Nov. 4 in the first loss of her career, recently passed an extensive physical examination in Kentucky and is being pointed for a 2017 campaign as a 4-year-old.
Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer said on Saturday that Songbird will remain at a farm in Kentucky through December before rejoining his stable at Santa Anita.
"We scanned her from head to toe and didn't find anything significant," he said. "We found nothing.
"She'll come back and get ready for next year. She'll be there right around Jan. 1."
Owned by Rick Porter, Songbird has won 11 of 12 starts and earned $3,712,000. She was the champion 2-year-old filly of 2015 and is expected to receive the title of champion 3-year-old filly of 2016.
Songbird won her first seven starts of 2016, all against 3-year-old fillies in California, New York, and Pennsylvania, and was beaten a nose by Beholder in a thrilling running of the BC Distaff.
Hollendorfer said he has not finalized race plans for Songbird for early 2017 but has the BC Distaff at Del Mar on Nov. 3 as a long-term goal.
"I'm looking forward to the Breeders' Cup here," Hollendorfer said, speaking in the track's racing office.
"Our long-term plan is the Breeders' Cup Distaff. We'll see how she comes in and plan some spots."
http://www.drf.com/news/songbird-deemed-healthy-2017-campaign
Lovely filly. I'm glad she's healthy and coming back next year. Also glad she's turned out at a farm for awhile.