May have to sneak over Sat.
Not at all sure, but maybe.....?
Frosted
Comfort T. Pletcher
Shaman Ghost J. Jerkens
Mubtaahij K. McLaughlin
Bradester E. Kenneally
Samraat R. Violette, Jr.
Wow, Bradester. Would love to see him upend Frosted.
'll be there. Glad o see some horses I recognize running. Was thinking no one entered, then Frosted appeared, now a few others.
I won't get to see this one since I'll be away, but I would probably bet against Frosted here. I don't think Bradester will bother him though since Frosted isn't a frontrunner anyway, unless they choose to send him. He's way better running from off the pace like he did in the Met. If he loses the Woodward it's likely due to a slow regression off that race.
Edit: just my opinion, of course. Tho I just read the TDN article and if Frosted can somehow replicate his Met run, then nobody beats him. That's unlikely however. ..
1 Shaman Ghost (ON) 4/C L1 J Castellano 120 J A Jerkens 12/1
2 Breaking Lucky (ON) 4/C L L Contreras 120 R Baker 20/1
3 Frosted (KY) 4/C L J Rosario 124 K P McLaughlin 1/2
4 Bradester (KY) 6/H L J Bravo 122 E Kenneally 6/1
5 Catholic Cowboy (FL) 6/G L L Saez 118 N P Zito 20/1
6 Samraat (NY) 5/H L J L Ortiz 118 R A Violette, Jr. 10/1
7 Tale of Verve (KY) 4/C L J R Velazquez 118 D Stewart 30/1
8 Tapin Mojo (KY) 5/H L M Franco 118 N Chatterpaul 50/1
9 Mubtaahij (IRE) 4/C L I Ortiz, Jr. 118 K P McLaughlin 5/1
I'll be a homer and root for the #1 and #2 :chickendance:
Quote from: Senator L on September 02, 2016, 11:59:09 AM
I'll be a homer and root for the #1 and #2 :chickendance:
I'd love to be a homer too!
Where's the California shippers????
Still counting their money from last week :chickendance:
Sneaky Samraat may have a say in this race - And Mubtaahij always tries - but if Frosted runs like he did last out = NO contest
First time Lasix can work miracles and it makes 12/1 a worthwhile shot, #1 SHAMAN GHOST for Jerkins/Castellano.
Quote from: stark on September 03, 2016, 07:25:29 AM
First time Lasix can work miracles and it makes 12/1 a worthwhile shot, #1 SHAMAN GHOST for Jerkins/Castellano.
Shaman Ghost Javier Castellano 20.00 8.50 3.10
Mubtaahij (IRE) Irad Ortiz, Jr. 6.20 2.80
Frosted Joel Rosario 2.10
;D
Good pick. Frosted looks to have regressed.
I don't know if he regressed. He did have a poor break and then was taken wide. Not a bad trip, but he did run 41 feet more than the winner.
I think they wanted to take him to the lead again and the awkward start scrapped those plans. What did he lose by, a half length.
Granted Mubtaahij ran 3 feet more than he did, but I think without the poor break he wins the race.
Race: Woodward Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course
Winner: Shaman Ghost (106 Beyer)
Sire: Ghostzapper
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: James Jerkens
Fast Fact: Shaman Ghost (1) his first triple-digit Beyer in 12 career starts.
Quote from: stark on September 08, 2016, 08:59:06 AM
Fast Fact: Shaman Ghost (1) his first triple-digit Beyer in 12 career starts.
...and some people still think Lasix isn't a performance enhancer... 8)
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 08, 2016, 07:36:11 AM
I don't know if he regressed. He did have a poor break and then was taken wide. Not a bad trip, but he did run 41 feet more than the winner.
I think they wanted to take him to the lead again and the awkward start scrapped those plans. What did he lose by, a half length.
Granted Mubtaahij ran 3 feet more than he did, but I think without the poor break he wins the race.
Frosted regressed but the question is why? I was skeptical of the placement the moment I read it. I don't think that winning was the utmost priority in that they weren't going to wring him dry to do it. Now the question is did that race do the trick so that now he can train up to the Breeder's Cup.
Quote from: peeptoad on September 08, 2016, 10:11:43 AM
...and some people still think Lasix isn't a performance enhancer... 8)
I've never played a first time Lasix unless I had some idea they bled without it and nowadays most horses--not named Runhappy--go their entire careers on it. It used to be the second time on Lasix, for a bleeder, was the time to get down. I've never done any research, but I'd like to see substantive numbers of horses who were not bleeders who moved up on Lasix before I'd come to any definitive conclusion.
Quote from: curtis on September 08, 2016, 10:55:29 AM
Frosted regressed but the question is why? I was skeptical of the placement the moment I read it. I don't think that winning was the utmost priority in that they weren't going to wring him dry to do it. Now the question is did that race do the trick so that now he can train up to the Breeder's Cup.
Sometimes the bettors have a pretty good feel of things and right now I wouldn't be surprised to see Frosted about the 4th choice in the field. In a race where it really is all about winning and nothing else matters, it doesn't look too good.
Quote from: stark on September 08, 2016, 11:07:32 AM
Sometimes the bettors have a pretty good feel of things and right now I wouldn't be surprised to see Frosted about the 4th choice in the field. In a race where it really is all about winning and nothing else matters, it doesn't look too good.
Yeah, I get that and I really didn't think he'd be better than third choice before Saturday. I don't think he can wire the field and I don't see him passing horses in the stretch at 10f. In short, to me, he's up against it.
I think he will end up running in the mile
Quote from: curtis on September 08, 2016, 11:04:47 AM
I've never played a first time Lasix unless I had some idea they bled without it and nowadays most horses--not named Runhappy--go their entire careers on it. It used to be the second time on Lasix, for a bleeder, was the time to get down. I've never done any research, but I'd like to see substantive numbers of horses who were not bleeders who moved up on Lasix before I'd come to any definitive conclusion.
The sunglasses dude was there for a reason... besides that I do believe, anecdotally, that it is a performance enhancer for at least
some horses. I've read two articles (one with a study that backed up the author's stance) that support my opinion, but little to nothing else.
I would love to see several lengthy, scientific studies done on this, but I doubt it will ever happen.
Quote from: peeptoad on September 09, 2016, 08:52:14 AM
The sunglasses dude was there for a reason... besides that I do believe, anecdotally, that it is a performance enhancer for at least some horses. I've read two articles (one with a study that backed up the author's stance) that support my opinion, but little to nothing else.
I would love to see several lengthy, scientific studies done on this, but I doubt it will ever happen.
Not scientific, but for what it's worth: In simplest of terms, it's a diuretic, and so it flushes out extra water weight that the horse won't have to lug around the track. Also, when I take diuretics, I feel less sluggish and overall more alert.
Quote from: Senator L on September 08, 2016, 02:52:50 PM
I think he will end up running in the mile
Why?
Like Honor Code last year, he has already run a brilliant 1 mile race. The top annual 1 mile race run on dirt in the world for my money. Nothing to gain by running in the BC Dirt Mile.
Quote from: Catalina on September 09, 2016, 09:48:06 AM
Not scientific, but for what it's worth: In simplest of terms, it's a diuretic, and so it flushes out extra water weight that the horse won't have to lug around the track. Also, when I take diuretics, I feel less sluggish and overall more alert.
Yes, one of the articles I read did a study over a period of months using horses from one barn, I want to say it was Romans or someone associated with Romans, but can't recall. They tracked the fluid weight loss of every horse in the barn administered lasix and I think the theory was exactly what you stated: the lost weight gave those horses an advantage. From memory the pounds of water lost ranged from ~20 up to over 100 in one horse. That's significant imo, and not just in terms of performance enhancement, but also for clinical/health reasons. The same article noted that horse that were not administered lasix had a much faster recovery time, post-race and we're able to race again sooner than the other group.
Quote from: peeptoad on September 09, 2016, 08:52:14 AM
The sunglasses dude was there for a reason... besides that I do believe, anecdotally, that it is a performance enhancer for at least some horses. I've read two articles (one with a study that backed up the author's stance) that support my opinion, but little to nothing else.
I would love to see several lengthy, scientific studies done on this, but I doubt it will ever happen.
I got that.
Anything that alleviates a problem is in essence a performance enhancer. Since Bute combats soreness it is a performance enhancer. The theory with Lasix with non-bleeders, as you know, is because it dehydrates it will reduce the water weight, thus enabling the horse to run lighter. Of course with those liquids go electrolytes. That's where the murkiness ensues, at least for me. I do know some pretty good horses, through the years--Demon's Begone, Summer Squall, Ruhlmann and even on occasion Unbridled, etc.--would not have been able to run without it. But then again it's not those that need it that are in question.
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 09, 2016, 10:20:27 AM
Why?
Like Honor Code last year, he has already run a brilliant 1 mile race. The top annual 1 mile race run on dirt in the world for my money. Nothing to gain by running in the BC Dirt Mile.
I get your point and to paraphrase Steve Coburn it may seem like the
Cowards way out but it is probably also the best placement. The main difference is that Honor Code--even though I believe he was best at a one turn mile--would pass horses in the stretch and if the pace was hot enough he could beat top horses at 9f around two turns. This always gave him a puncher's chance. 10f of course was a stretch, but we'll never know because the complexion of the Classic changed so dramatically when both Beholder and Smooth Roller scratched. Still he did the best he could and ran well enough. Frosted, on the other hand, looks to need the lead and play come catch me at 10f with top horses. This is especially true at a track like Santa Anita which probably won't be kind to closers. I don't see him getting enough of an uncontested lead to be able to pull it off. If Frosted goes, you might see a pace like 2010. A horse like Exaggerator could even be dangerous however, I doubt that the race will fall apart the way races tend to on a sloppy track.
Quote from: curtis on September 09, 2016, 12:21:45 PM
I got that.
Anything that alleviates a problem is in essence a performance enhancer. Since Bute combats soreness it is a performance enhancer. The theory with Lasix with non-bleeders, as you know, is because it dehydrates it will reduce the water weight, thus enabling the horse to run lighter. Of course with those liquids go electrolytes. That's where the murkiness ensues, at least for me. I do know some pretty good horses, through the years--Demon's Begone, Summer Squall, Ruhlmann and even on occasion Unbridled, etc.--would not have been able to run without it. But then again it's not those that need it that are in question.
Agree exactly on all you've said. And because there are good horses, such as the ones you mentioned, who need it therapeutically in order to race it's a debatable issue that will likely not go away in the near future. Only something major , eg bleeders being banned from racing, would alter the use of lasix imo.
Quote from: Senator L on September 08, 2016, 02:52:50 PM
I think he will end up running in the mile
It will most likely simplify my bets if this happens...
Quote from: curtis on September 09, 2016, 12:38:55 PM
I get your point and to paraphrase Steve Coburn it may seem like the Cowards way out but it is probably also the best placement. The main difference is that Honor Code--even though I believe he was best at a one turn mile--would pass horses in the stretch and if the pace was hot enough he could beat top horses at 9f around two turns. This always gave him a puncher's chance. 10f of course was a stretch, but we'll never know because the complexion of the Classic changed so dramatically when both Beholder and Smooth Roller scratched. Still he did the best he could and ran well enough. Frosted, on the other hand, looks to need the lead and play come catch me at 10f with top horses. This is especially true at a track like Santa Anita which probably won't be kind to closers. I don't see him getting enough of an uncontested lead to be able to pull it off. If Frosted goes, you might see a pace like 2010. A horse like Exaggerator could even be dangerous however, I doubt that the race will fall apart the way races tend to on a sloppy track.
Fair points. I just want to see Frosted try 10 furlongs again. I want to see him finish within a length of the winner. I do not know that he can beat Chrome or Arrogate at their best, but I do think that he can finish closer than the 3 lengths he has finished so far.
The break will be all important. He could wire the field like Pharoah and Bayern, but if Arrogate goes too that could set it up for a closer since Chrome would likely be close to the pace as well.