Beholder and Will Take Charge.
Quote from: Vic in Chicago on November 02, 2013, 08:52:07 PM
Quote from: Zenyatta on November 02, 2013, 06:21:44 PM
Beholder and Will Take Charge.
Yes.
Seems like it has to be these two. I'm really impressed with
Will Take Charge. What a gutsy and courageous
horse, and I'm already looking forward to his 4yo season.
Considering his early season success, if
Orb wound up blistering his opponents in the Cigar Mile, would he still have
a chance as 3yo Eclipse winner?
WarBiscuit
Quote from: WarBiscuit on November 03, 2013, 10:40:28 AM
Quote from: Vic in Chicago on November 02, 2013, 08:52:07 PM
Quote from: Zenyatta on November 02, 2013, 06:21:44 PM
Beholder and Will Take Charge.
Yes.
Seems like it has to be these two. I'm really impressed with Will Take Charge. What a gutsy and courageous
horse, and I'm already looking forward to his 4yo season.
Considering his early season success, if Orb wound up blistering his opponents in the Cigar Mile, would he still have
a chance as 3yo Eclipse winner?
WarBiscuit
By default, as Derby winner, he'll get a nomination, but with the clunkers he threw in his last few races, I don't see even a resurgence in the Cigar Mile as being a reason for his being the Eclipse Award winner. But then, stranger things have happened!
Quote from: Zenyatta on November 03, 2013, 11:20:51 AM
Quote from: WarBiscuit on November 03, 2013, 10:40:28 AM
Quote from: Vic in Chicago on November 02, 2013, 08:52:07 PM
Quote from: Zenyatta on November 02, 2013, 06:21:44 PM
Beholder and Will Take Charge.
Yes.
Seems like it has to be these two. I'm really impressed with Will Take Charge. What a gutsy and courageous
horse, and I'm already looking forward to his 4yo season.
Considering his early season success, if Orb wound up blistering his opponents in the Cigar Mile, would he still have
a chance as 3yo Eclipse winner?
WarBiscuit
By default, as Derby winner, he'll get a nomination, but with the clunkers he threw in his last few races, I don't see even a resurgence in the Cigar Mile as being a reason for his being the Eclipse Award winner. But then, stranger things have happened!
Like remember back in 2011 when, for one week in January, Giant Oak was the top-ranked thoroughbred in the world?! :OMG:
Now THAT was strange!
Quote from: Dave in TJ Mex on November 03, 2013, 12:32:32 PM
Like remember back in 2011 when, for one week in January, Giant Oak was the top-ranked thoroughbred in the world?! :OMG:
Now THAT was strange!
STRANGE?? That one week he was the best thoroughbred in the world!!
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Princess of Sylmar and Will Take Charge. :)
Probably Will Take Charge... Orb is the only other 3yo male close and he's not done enough 2nd half of the year.
Either Beholder or Princess would be fine by me (like I matter). I can understand arguments for both and have no real opinion beyond that.
As I noted on the other thread, if Orb wins the Cigar Mile he gets the nod IMHO.
Anything less than a win and it goes to Will Take Charge.
Other than the Breeders Cup Classic, for three year olds the top performance is measured by how you do in the Triple Crown races.
Orb won the Kentucky Derby which is the equivalent of the Breeders Cup Classic for three year olds beating Will Take Charge who finished 8th.
In the Preakness Stakes, he again defeated Will Take Charge finishing 4th ahead of WTC who finished 7th.
In the Belmont Stakes, he again defeated Will Take Charge finishing 3rd. WTC finished 10th.
In the top three year old races - the TC races WTC was a no show while Orb showed up and ran respectable races.
Now, do not get me wrong - I like Will Take Charge a lot.
In the second half of the year he has been impressive.
He bested Orb in the Travers Stakes - his only race where he finished ahead of him all year. And Orb still finished a respectable 3rd.
Then Orb opts for a race against older horses in the Jockey Club Gold Cup...while Will Take Charge opts for a lesser challenge against a field include a single stakes winning three year old in the Pennsylvania Derby.
Orb finishes his worst of all (8th) his races all year talking on older males and his connections decide that they will give him a pass on the BC Classic.
Will Take Charge finishes second in a hard fought stretch battle in the BC Classic.
Examining the entire year's efforts...
Will Take Charge is 10-4-2-0 overall but in graded stakes races he is 9-3-2-0. And in G1 races he is 5-1-1-0 with a solitary win.
Orb on the other hand is 8-4-0-2 overall but in graded stakes races he is 7-3-0-2. And in G1 races he is 6-2-0-2 with two wins.
My point is that I give Will Take Charge the edge right now as many of you suggest, but the notion that a win in the second half of the year in the Cigar Mile by Orb should be meaningless I since believe it ignores a substantial edge for Orb who would then have 3 G1 wins - 66% more than WTC - a final overall record of 9-5-0-2 and a graded stakes record of 8-4-0-2 which would show the following:
Orb wins 50% of his graded takes races.
Will Take Charge wins 33%% of his graded stakes races.
Orb wins %42% of his G1 races he runs in.
Will Take Charge wins 20% of his G1 races he runs in.
Orb finishes in the money in 75% of his stakes races.
Will Take Charge finishes in the money in 55% of his stakes races.
Considering he retired sound, Orb's connections must have weighed his lackluster efforts of late against the probability of getting another G1 win (I would have entered him in the Clark), and decided to simply retire him and not risk his stallion value.
Quote from: Zenyatta on November 05, 2013, 08:24:22 PM
Considering he retired sound, Orb's connections must have weighed his lackluster efforts of late against the probability of getting another G1 win (I would have entered him in the Clark), and decided to simply retire him and not risk his stallion value.
A good possibility. The Clark is an interesting choice since that was the scene of his last win. I liked the Cigar Mile because I hope to be there.
I'm actually hoping that goldencents can win the cigar Mile and take this award because I personally find Will Take charge to be an option that is hard to accept. However Orb is only marginally more palatable. Goldencents would be a good selection in my opinion if he added the Cigar Mile to his CV.
Quote from: Kennedy on November 07, 2013, 06:56:53 PM
I'm actually hoping that goldencents can win the cigar Mile and take this award because I personally find Will Take charge to be an option that is hard to accept. However Orb is only marginally more palatable. Goldencents would be a good selection in my opinion if he added the Cigar Mile to his CV.
From your lips to God's ears. I heard Goldencents ' connections are going to the Cigar Mile. At least I did hear O'Neill say he was considering it.
Agreed...
Was hoping Cross Traffic would enter the race but it does not seem like he is considering it any longer.
But now Verrazano is a possibility along with Alpha, Capo Bastone and Forty Tales.
So that might be a nice field with Groupie and Goldencents...4 multiple G1 winners and 5 G1 winners...
I wouldn't automatically say it's going to be Will Take Charge. No one has mentioned Palace Malice here. He won a triple crown race, the Belmont and he won the grade two Jim Dandy at Saratoga.
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 11, 2013, 06:39:02 AM
Agreed...
Was hoping Cross Traffic would enter the race but it does not seem like he is considering it any longer.
But now Verrazano is a possibility along with Alpha, Capo Bastone and Forty Tales.
So that might be a nice field with Groupie and Goldencents...4 multiple G1 winners and 5 G1 winners...
And Golden Ticket appears to be headed there as well...so that's 6 G1 winners.
Too bad Orb and Cross Traffic couldn't make it.
Quote from: afleetphil on November 11, 2013, 07:46:53 AM
I wouldn't automatically say it's going to be Will Take Charge. No one has mentioned Palace Malice here. He won a triple crown race, the Belmont and he won the grade two Jim Dandy at Saratoga.
That's nowhere near enough for Palace Malice. Heck, Orb is going to be strapped and he won the Derby, another G1 and a G2. The 3yo male division is too tight this year.
I guess it depends on how you rate the fields involving the wins. I would suggest that some wins are more important than others depending upon the competition. The most competitive three year old race this year was the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes since it had the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winners competing in the race. No other race could claim the number of G1 top finishing stakes winning or placing horses in it other than those two races.
Will Take Charge in the G2 Pennsylvania Derby has a win over:
G1 Travers runner up and G2 Dwyer stakes winner
Will Take Charge has a win in the G1 Travers over:
Kentucky Derby winner
Belmont Stakes winner
Wood Memorial/Haskell winner
Dwyer Stakes winner
Will Take Charge in the G2 Rebel has a win over:
G3 Lecomte winner
Orb has a win in the G1 Kentucky Derby over:
Arkansas Derby winner
Bluegrass Stakes winner
Wood Memorial winner
Santa Anita Derby winner
Florida Derby runner-up
Wood Memorial runner-up
Santa Anita Derby runner-up
Bluegrass Stakes runner up
Arkansas Derby runner-up
G2 UAE Derby winner
Orb has a win in the G1 Florida Derby over:
Multiple G1 winning two year old BC Champion Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby
G3 Holy Bull winner
Orb has a victory in the G2 Fountain of Youth over:
G1 and multiple graded stakes winning horse
Palace Malice has a win in the G1 Belmont Stakes over:
G1 Kentucky Derby and Florida Derby winner
G1 Preakness Stakes and Lecomte Stakes winner
G1 Kentucky Derby runner up
G1 Preakness Stakes runner-up and Holy Bully winner
G1 Arkansas Derby winner
G1 Arkansas Derby runner-up
G2 Louisiana Derby winner and Kentucky Derby third place finisher
G2 Rebel Stakes winner
Palace Malice has a win in the G1 Jim Dandy over:
G2 Dwyer Stakes winner
G2 Rebel Stakes winner
G2 Peter Pan Stakes winner
G1 Preakness Stakes third place finisher
Now, who defeated - as in won a race - over tougher competition this year?
In this context, Palace Malice is quite deserving of being in the conversation for champion three year old.
And then, of course, there is Goldencents.
Goldencents has a win in the G1 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile over:
G1 2012 Travers Stakes winner and 2013 G3 Prairie Meadows Handicap winner
Multiple G1 winner of the 2013 Wood Memorial and Haskell Invitational
G1 2013 Woodward Stakes winner and 2012 Travers Stakes
G1 Triple Bend winner
G1 2012 Donn Handicap winner
Goldencents has a win in the G1 Santa Anita Derby over:
G2 Robert Lewis Stakes winner
G3 Southwest Stakes winner
Is Cross Traffic injured or having issues? I know he was a late starter, but no idea what is happening with him now.
Quote from: Zenyatta on November 13, 2013, 04:49:20 AM
Is Cross Traffic injured or having issues? I know he was a late starter, but no idea what is happening with him now.
A minor shin injury is what was reported to have made him miss the BC...he was taken to the farm for further diagnostics and that's the last I heard.
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 11, 2013, 06:39:02 AM
Agreed...
Was hoping Cross Traffic would enter the race but it does not seem like he is considering it any longer.
But now Verrazano is a possibility along with Alpha, Capo Bastone and Forty Tales.
So that might be a nice field with Groupie and Goldencents...4 multiple G1 winners and 5 G1 winners...
From an NYRA release (http://nyra%20release)...
Groupie Doll and her regular rider, Rajiv Maragh, will be competing for a $1 million gross purse in the Cigar Mile by virtue of a special purse incentive provided by the New York Racing Association, Inc. for Breeders' Cup winners. Also going for the enhanced $1 million purse will be Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents, while Alpha, Verrazano and Capo Bastone would be competing for a secondary incentive that offers a gross purse of $750,000 to Grade 1 winners. Others looking at the Cigar Mile include Gentlemen's Bet, third in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, and stakes winner Forty Tales.
Here is what some journalists are saying:
Finding A Three Year Old Champion (http://finding%20a%20three%20year%20old%20champion)
Saratogian
Major Thoroughbred Honors Predictions (http://major%20thoroughbred%20honors%20predictions)
The Sports Network
Will Take Charge Could Win Eclipse (http://will%20take%20charge%20could%20win%20eclipse)
Saratogian
The Three Year Old Championship (http://the%20three%20year%20old%20championship)
DRF
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 21, 2013, 11:41:17 AM
Here is what some journalists are saying:
Finding A Three Year Old Champion (http://finding%20a%20three%20year%20old%20champion)
Saratogian
Major Thoroughbred Honors Predictions (http://major%20thoroughbred%20honors%20predictions)
The Sports Network
Will Take Charge Could Win Eclipse (http://will%20take%20charge%20could%20win%20eclipse)
Saratogian
I'd like to read these but you need to copy and paste the actual urls between the url tags, Taz. :)
Are you still thinking of coming to HP before it closes? Sorry for the momentary hijack.
The Three Year Old Championship (http://the%20three%20year%20old%20championship)
DRF
Quote from: Zenyatta on November 21, 2013, 08:04:18 PM
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 21, 2013, 11:41:17 AM
Here is what some journalists are saying:
Finding A Three Year Old Champion (http://www.saratogian.com/sports/20131111/scott-column-finding-a-3-year-old-champion)
Saratogian
Major Thoroughbred Honors Predictions (http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=chicagosports&page=horse/news/news.aspx?id=4637707)
The Sports Network
Will Take Charge Could Win Eclipse (http://www.saratogian.com/sports/20131116/veitch-column-will-take-charge-could-win-eclipse)
Saratogian
I'd like to read these but you need to copy and paste the actual urls between the url tags, Taz. :)
Are you still thinking of coming to HP before it closes? Sorry for the momentary hijack.
The Three Year Old Championship (http://www.drf.com/blogs/3-year-old-championship)
DRF
I knew it seemed too easy...my apologies...
Bet it's Will Take Charge after today's Clark win.
Quote from: Islandgirl45 on November 29, 2013, 02:49:58 PM
Bet it's Will Take Charge after today's Clark win.
Right - even had Goldencents won the Cigar it would have been a tough call for him to get it since the voters seem to stick with tradition.