2016 Breeders Cup Classic

[Man o Taz]

I'd actually point Exaggerator to the Cigar Mile and train him up to it.  I think he could really be effective at a one-turn mile and since I don't think you'll see him next year, it may be the best way to go out with a win.

I don't know what the big picture is with Nyquist.  If they are planning on running him next year, the only BC race that makes sense to me at this point is the Dirt Mile.  If he could win or be competitive, it would give them something on which to build.  I would suppose he'll end up going in Frankie's Fabulous Mega Million since he's somewhat proven over the track.  If he's not up to it, maybe a match race on the undercard against Toews On Ice with Eddie Olczyk calling the race.

I would like that. Chance to see him again. But I do not think he has an affinity for the NY tracks. And there may be more of a chance for rain in Kentucky than NY in November. ;-)

Nyquist I see in the BC Classic, Malibu and Pegasus and off to Darley...taking two more shots to get an elusive win to put him over the top for the 3 year old championship.

Of course, what Arrogate does will also be a factor. 

[stark]

Exaggerator, the winner of three Grade 1 races this year, including the Preakness Stakes, went to WinStar Farm on Friday for a freshening, according to his trainer, Keith Desormeaux.

Desormeaux said he is unsure whether Exaggerator would make the Breeders' Cup Classic, though he acknowledged, "It may be a little close to the race to think he'd return from a freshening and run, but we'll see what happens."

WinStar in April acquired the breeding rights to Exaggerator, who will stand at the farm upon retirement. Desormeaux and Elliott Walden, the president and chief executive of WinStar, both confirmed that WinStar was now in control of managing Exaggerator's career.

Walden on Friday said Exaggerator was going to WinStar to be "re-evaluated."

"He needs at least a brief freshening," Walden said. "He'll be X-rayed, and we'll see where we're at. We'll see what the next week brings and see what is decided."
http://www.drf.com/news/exaggerator-gets-freshening

[peeptoad]

Sounds like the BC is unlikely anyway, then...

[Catalina]

Unless they think he can return in that short turnaround time and actually win the Classic, not running him seems the sensible solution.

[Zenyatta]

Exaggerator will be retired, my prediction. He won 3 big races in the slop, and he's by a top stallion. I just can't see him maturing into a dry dirt track handicap horse.

After Chrome's win today, he wouldn't stand a chance anyway.

[Man o Taz]

With Chrome retiring he might stand a chance unless Arrogate will definitely be running in 2017.

[stark]

Doug O'Neill says Nyquist will point to the Breeders' Cup Classic. "He's doing good. If everything stays good, we're going to the Classic."

Despite reservations expressed by owner J. Paul Reddam after what he called "the worst performance of (Nyquist's) life" in the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II), the Uncle Mo   colt will target the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I).

[peeptoad]

That's good to hear. Even if he ultimately does not run well the Derby winner deserves to be in the Classic imo.

[Man o Taz]

Agreed. He has not raced nearly as much as Exaggerator.

6 starts vs. 9 starts.

[stark]

Exaggerator, the winner of the Preakness Stakes and the only 3-year-old male to win three Grade 1 races this year, was officially retired on Monday and will stand at stud beginning next year at WinStar Farm in Versailles, Ky., it was announced by WinStar.

The announcement was not a surprise, as Exaggerator had been taken out of training two weeks ago following a disappointing performance in the Pennsylvania Derby and had been taken to WinStar, which had taken over control of Exaggerator's career.

[Man o Taz]

Potential field:

American Freedom - Unlikely
Arrogate Probable
Beholder Unlikely
California Chrome - Probable
Comfort
Creator
Dortmund - Possible
Effinex - Probable
Exaggerator
Frosted - Probable
Gun Runner
Hoppertunity - Probable
Melatonin - Probable
Mubtaahij - Possible
Nyquist - Probable
Samraat - Possible - Could be training
Shaman Ghost - Probable

The field dwindles...

Does Baffert enter 4 horses? Probably not which would mean that American Freedom and/or Dortmund likely do not get the nod. 
Does McLaughlin enter 2 horses? Possible. I would not toss Mubtaahij off of that performance in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He had never raced on an off track before and so I think his JCGC is a toss. He has run well all year and deserves a shot at the BCC with his 2nd by 3 3/4 lengths in the Dubai World Cup and a loss by just over 1 1/2 lengths to Effinex  in the Suburban Handicap.
Effinex put together a nice strong of races to end 2015, maybe he does so in 2016, too.

There may only be 2 3 year olds in the BC Classic this year? When is the last time that happened? There were 3 last year. 6 the year before.

A field of 8-11...I had hoped for more but it is not playing out that way...

[curtis]

Has Hard Aces been declared out?  Given the possible pace, you'd think Sadler would give him a shot to clunk up for fourth.

[stark]

Travers winner Arrogate worked a seven furlongs this morning at Santa Anita in 1:25.40

[Man o Taz]

Has Hard Aces been declared out?  Given the possible pace, you'd think Sadler would give him a shot to clunk up for fourth.

You know I have heard nothing about Hard Aces as a possibility for this year's BC Classic. Last year, he had won a win and you're in so the fees were paid. Perhaps they do not want to ante up the entry fee.

[stark]

David Grening ‏@DRFGrening

Kiaran also said that Mubtaahij no longer under BC consideration. Will soon begin quarantine for a return to Dubai