Well, its hard to believe, but most of the racing for the year has taken place already. All that is really left is fall racing and the Breeders Cup Championship which for Horse of the Year purposes will likely mean not more than two races for the top candidates - possibly three.
I listed Close Hatches because if she were to take on the males and win I think she could make an excellent case for HOTY honors. However, I do not think that is in her plans.
Palace Malice is retired - but I have him at the top because he is still a worthy leader in my book - with his accomplishments so far this year.
1. Palace Malice (retired)
6th G1 Whitney, 9 furlongs
G1 Metropolitan Handicap, 8 furlongs defeating Moreno
G3 Westchester Stakes, 8 furlongs
G2 New Orleans Handicap, 8 furlongs
G2 Gulfstream Park Handicap, 8 furlongs defeating Itsmyluckyday
2. California Chrome (G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs)
4th G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs
G1 Preakness Stakes, 9.5 furlongs
G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
G1 Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs
California Cup, 8.5 furlongs
3. Wise Dan (G1 Woodbine Mile/G1 Shadwell Turf Mile)
G2 Bernard Baruch, 8.5 furlongs (T)
G1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, 9 furlongs
G1 Makers 46 Mile (T)
4. Shared Belief (G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs; G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs)
G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs
G2 Los Alamitos Derby, 9 furlongs
4. Tonalist - tied (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs)
G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs defeating California Chrome
G2 Peter Pan, 9 furlongs
4. Itsmyluckday - tied (G2 Kelso, 8 furlongs)
G1 Woodward Stakes, 9 furlongs defeating Moreno
2nd G1 Whitney Stakes, 9 furlongs ahead of Palace Malice
G3 Salvator Mile
Majestic Light Stakes, 1 mile, 70 yards
Best of the Rest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
4th G2 Gulfstream Handicap, 1 mile
6. Game On Dude (G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs)
4th G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs
4th G1 Hollywood Gold Cup, 10 furlongs
2nd G2 Charles Town Classic, 9 furlongs
G1 Santa Anita Handicap, 10 furlongs
5th G2 San Diego Handicap, 9 furlongs
7. Close Hatches (G1 Spinster, 9 furlongs)
G1 Personal Ensign, 9 furlongs defeating Princess of Sylmar
G1 Ogden Phipps, 8.5 furlongs, defeating Princess of Sylmar and Beholder
G1 Apple Blossom, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Azeri, 8.5 furlongs
8. Lea - tied (G2 Kelso, 8 furlongs)
G1 Donn Handicap, 9 furlongs recording one of the highest BSFs for 2014
8. Moreno - tied (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs)
2nd G1 Woodward Stakes
G1 Whitney, defeating Palace Malice and Itsmyluckyday
I think if Chrome wins his next he'll lock up HOY and 3 yr old champion
3 grade 1's and a grade 2 + a stakes race
that's some running :chickendance:
If Close Hatches could somehow manage a win against open company, then she'd be a top contender, but I don't see that happening. As it stands she's practically a lock for the distaff award though. The older males have largely taken turns beating each other, which leaves the door open for either Chrome or Shared Belief. Hard to imagine another 3yo vying for year end honors.
If either Chrome or Belief wins the Classic they get the award, or if a crazy longshot wins, then one of them might get it if they run well in defeat. The PA Derby isn't a grade 1 and is restricted... imho Chrome needs to beat older horses to really be worthy of HOY. At least Shared Belief has done that already, though the rest of his CV is light.
How can each of Taz's Top 9 win HOTY?
1. Palace Malice (retired)
Probably can't. Chrome would have to fail to win another race and lose Champion three year old to another horse.
2. California Chrome (G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs)
Chrome is certainly the most accomplished horse. Perhaps the G2 win would be enough. However, without Shared Belief in the field, many would be curious regarding his ability against elders particularly given a lackluster field in the PA Derby.
3. Wise Dan (G1 Woodbine Mile/G1 Shadwell Turf Mile)
Dan has potentially three more G1s on his schedule including the Breeders Cup. If he wins out, and the others falter, there is always a chance for the three peat. It could get even more interesting if he were to run in and win the G1 Clark Handicap which could give him 6 G1 wins in 2014.
4. Shared Belief (G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs; G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs)
Would winning the BC Classic be enough to win HOTY?
I don't think so. I think he would need to win his last two races. Whether against California Chrome in both of them, or Chrome in one, and elders again in another, that would certainly make the strongest case possible.
4. Tonalist - tied (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs)
If Tonalist were to win out he would have 3 G1 wins including two classics - and three at the classic distance. That's a strong resume even if California Chrome were to win the Pennsylvania Derby over Shared Belief. It would give Tonalist two victories over California Chrome and two victories over older horses.
4. Itsmyluckday - tied (G2 Kelso, 8 furlongs)
He needs some help. I would suggest that he would not only need to win the Classic, but the Kelso in near track record setting time, but also win the G1 Cigar Mile.
6. Game On Dude (G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs)
If Game On Dude can finally win the BC Classic, that would make a strong case for him. Would it be enough to overcome California Chrome or Shared Belief's resume? No. Not without a win in the Awesome Again.
7. Close Hatches (G1 Spinster, 9 furlongs)
She would need to win against males. I do not see that happening in the Jockey Club Gold Cup which would likely be the easier spot for her than the Classic. She has never been tested at 10 furlongs so it would be interesting to see. If HOTY is truly a goal, I would send her to the Awesome Again and let her take on the males there. Even with a loss, as noted, she has likely sewn up the distaff division.
8. Lea - tied (G2 Kelso, 8 furlongs)
G1 Donn Handicap, 9 furlongs recording highest BSF for 2014
This is another difficult one. Something more than the winning of a prep race and the BC Classic would be necessary. The G1 Cigar Mile or G1 Clark Handicap is an option.
8. Moreno - tied (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs)
He likewise needs help - and the same scenario that Lea and Itsmyluckyday faces.
I want to see Will Take Charge win the JCGC and the BCC so I can view the mushroom clouds above Santa Anita.
Itsmyluckyday is moving forward and might end up being the best horse at the end of the year!
Quote from: curtis on September 08, 2014, 01:47:03 PM
I want to see Will Take Charge win the JCGC and the BCC so I can view the mushroom clouds above Santa Anita.
I would not mind that at all.
However, I think his winning both would leave Horse of the Year for Palce Malice or probably more likely, California Chrome or Wise Dan provided the former wins the PA Derby and the latter wins two more races...it seems the voters are getting used to voting Wise Dan...a three peat would put Dan in haloed company with Kelso...not quite...but it would be incredible.
Quote from: Raven on September 08, 2014, 08:28:15 PM
Itsmyluckyday is moving forward and might end up being the best horse at the end of the year!
I hope so. He retires at year's end, so it would be a nice way to go out...
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 09, 2014, 06:30:16 AM
I would not mind that at all.
However, I think his winning both would leave Horse of the Year for Palce Malice or probably more likely, California Chrome or Wise Dan provided the former wins the PA Derby and the latter wins two more races...it seems the voters are getting used to voting Wise Dan...a three peat would put Dan in haloed company with Kelso...not quite...but it would be incredible.
If Will Take Charge were to win both of those races and add the Clark he would easily surpass Palace Malice, in my opinion. This wouldn't guarantee him an Eclipse award, however.
Your last sentence is telling and my main problem with Wise Dan winning. Three Horse of the Years would equal Forego. The difference is Forego raced against the best horses in the country for three years, Wise Dan hasn't. Someone shouldn't be able to look in a history book and think the two horses are comparable--they're not.
Quote from: curtis on September 09, 2014, 01:56:38 PM
If Will Take Charge were to win both of those races and add the Clark he would easily surpass Palace Malice, in my opinion. This wouldn't guarantee him an Eclipse award, however.
Your last sentence is telling and my main problem with Wise Dan winning. Three Horse of the Years would equal Forego. The difference is Forego raced against the best horses in the country for three years, Wise Dan hasn't. Someone shouldn't be able to look in a history book and think the two horses are comparable--they're not.
Agreed. I am a big Dan fan, but Forego won against the best at all distances between 7 furlongs and 12 furlongs.
Now, Dan has beaten some of our best horses...but on turf. His Clark win on dirt was impressive since he did best one of the top older horses in Flat Out that year, but it was one win on dirt.
That said, he has one a number of main track synthetic races against top horses in addition to his turf feats, but Forego ranks 8th in the Thoroughbred Champions top 100 horses. Wise Dan is impressive and deserving of accolades, but I do not think he is in the top 10 of all American thoroughbreds in the last 100 years.
Quote from: Man o Taz on September 08, 2014, 09:03:40 AM
4. Shared Belief (G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs; G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs)
G1 Pacific Classic, 10 furlongs
G2 Los Alamitos Derby, 9 furlongs
http://www.drf.com/news/hovdey-california-chrome-shared-belief-collision-course (http://www.drf.com/news/hovdey-california-chrome-shared-belief-collision-course)
Hollendorfer confirms Shared Belief for Awesome Again (as suspected). He'll have one more work at GG next week and then ship to SA for the AA (and presumably, the Classic).
It will be interesting to see if he just stays at Santa Anita or they ship him back to Golden Gate in between. It doesn't seem like Mr. Hollendorfer likes to take any chances with the colt training anywhere but at Golden Gate.
How can each of Taz's Top 10 win HOTY?
Horse (Next Race, distance)
Analysis
Last result, if not already posted above.
1. Palace Malice (retired)
Probably can't. Chrome would have to fail to win another race and lose champion three year old to another horse who did not win the BC Classic. I'm thinking Shared Belief wins the Awesome Again, but loses in the BC Classic...and none of the other contenders finish as noted below. Not completely ruling him out yet.
2. California Chrome (G1 Breeders Cup Classic, 10 furlongs)
Chrome is still the most accomplished three year old. He is still the top three year old no matter what the "what have you done for me lately NTRA polls say".
6th G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs
3. Wise Dan (G1 Shadwell Turf Mile)
Dan has potentially two more G1s on his schedule including the Breeders Cup. If he wins out, and the others falter, there is always a chance for the three peat. A win in the G1 Clark Handicap which could give him 5 G1 wins in 2014 would be a tough case to argue against since the best other horses can do is likely 4 G1 wins and thats only if California Chrome would win the BC Classic which would eliminate Dan from contention. I think as well as dirt horses are doing this year, Dan will have to win on dirt to win HOTY this year unless the others fall apart in the BC Classic and/or their preps.
4. Shared Belief (G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs)
Would winning the BC Classic be enough to win HOTY? He needs to win his last two races against open company.
4. Tonalist - tied (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs)
If Tonalist were to win out he would have 3 G1 wins including two classics - and these would be at the classic distance or greater. That's a strong resume even if Shared Belief were to win another G1 against older horses. It would give Tonalist two victories over California Chrome and two victories over older horses. Tonalist would likely take three year old honors as well en route to Horse of the Year.
4. Bayern - tied (BC Classic, 10 furlongs)
G2 Pennsylvania Derby, 9 furlongs
10th G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs
G1 Haskell Stakes, 9 furlongs
G2 Woody Stephens, 7 furlongs
9th G1 Preakness Stakes, 9.5 furlongs
2nd G3 Derby Trial, 8 furlongs
3rd G1 Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
7. Itsmyluckday - tied (G2 Kelso Handicap, 8 furlongs)
He needs some help. I would suggest that he would not only need to win the Classic, but the Kelso in near track record setting time, but also win the G1 Cigar Mile. That would give him 3 G1 wins against good competition. It looks like he may skip the BC Classic this year so he is basically out of the running fro HOTY - but could make a case for champion older horse if he opted for the Clark Handicap over the Cigar Mile. After all, Wise Dan is the only older horse with 2 G1 wins. He could still finish with 5 as noted above.
6. Game On Dude (G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs)
8. Close Hatches (G1 Spinster, 9 furlongs)
She would need to win against males. I do not see that happening in the Jockey Club Gold Cup which would likely be the easier spot for her than the Classic. She has never been tested at 10 furlongs so it would be interesting to see. If HOTY is truly a goal, I would send her to the Awesome Again and let her take on the males there. Even with a loss, as noted, she has likely sewn up the distaff division.
9. Lea - tied (?????)
G1 Donn Handicap, 9 furlongs recording the 3rd highest BSF (114) for 2014.
This is another difficult one. Something more than the winning of a prep race and the BC Classic would be necessary. The G1 Cigar Mile or G1 Clark Handicap is an option.
10. Moreno - tied (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs)
He likewise needs help - and the same scenario that Lea faces. Itsmyluckyday has at least run in and won a number of other races.
[/quote]
10. VE Day tied (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup)
He is new on the scene, but he did win the Travers Stakes. His winning out would make a strong case for Horse of the Year, and at least champion three year old.
G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs
Curlin Stakes, 9 furlongs
10. Wicked Strong (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup)
2nd G1 Travers Stakes, 10 furlongs
G2 Jim Dandy, 9 furlongs
4th G1 Belmont Stakes, 12 furlongs
4th G1 Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs
G1 Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs
It seems that Mr. Haskin agrees on some of the three year old HOTY potential:
Also, if Shared Belief gets beat in the Awesome Again, it actually opens the 3-year-old Eclipse door to Bayern, Wicked Strong, V.E. Day, and Tonalist. Maybe even Horse of the Year. If, for instance, V.E. Day ends the year with victories in the Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Breeders' Cup Classic that certainly would earn him votes. The same with Tonalist, with the Peter Pan, Belmont Stakes, JC Gold Cup, and BC Classic. The same with Wicked Strong, with the Wood Memorial, Jim Dandy, JC Gold Cup, and BC Classic and a nose defeat in the Travers. And the same with Bayern, with the Woody Stephens, Haskell Invitational, Pennsylvania Derby, and Breeders' Cup Classic.
Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2014/09/22/shared-belief-needs-to-be-awesome-again.aspx#ixzz3ELkeiQJv
My thinking is even if Shared Belief wins the Awesome Again, if he loses the BC Classic he is not champion three year old so long as another three year old bests him in the Classic...
Even if he finishes ahead of them but loses to an older horse...he might not get champion three year old despite his resume against older horses since unless one of them were to win the Classic the same old complaint would surface - who did he beat. Now, I do not exactly subscribe to this point of view, but many of the voters do.
How can each horse win?
Horse (Next Race, distance)
Analysis
Last result, if not already posted above.
1. Palace Malice (retired)
Probably can't. Chrome would have to fail to win another race and lose champion three year old to another horse who did not win the BC Classic. I'm thinking Shared Belief wins the Awesome Again, but loses in the BC Classic...and none of the other contenders finish as noted below. Not completely ruling him out yet. After this weekend I think he still has an outside chance.
2. California Chrome
Chrome is still the most accomplished three year old. He is still the top three year old no matter what the "what have you done for me lately NTRA polls say". I still feel this way. I know Shared Belief has two victories against older horses, but Shared Belief has yet to face a top three year old this year and they are the horses sweeping the older horse races on the main track.
3. Wise Dan (G1 Shadwell Turf Mile)
Dan has potentially two more G1s on his schedule including the Breeders Cup. If he wins out, and the others falter, there is always a chance for the three peat. A win in the G1 Clark Handicap which could give him 5 G1 wins in 2014 would be a tough case to argue against since the best other horses can do is likely 4 G1 wins and thats only if California Chrome would win the BC Classic which would eliminate Dan from contention. I STILL think as well as dirt horses are doing this year, Dan will have to win on dirt to win HOTY this year unless the others fall apart in the BC Classic and/or their preps.
4. Shared Belief - tied
Would winning the BC Classic be enough to win HOTY? He needs to win his last two races against open company. He is also now not the only three year old to best elder in a route race with Tonalist joining the field. This demonstrates that wins against three year olds may mean more to the voters than wins against older horses which bodes well for California Chrome.
G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs.
4. Tonalist - tied
If Tonalist were to win out he would have 3 G1 wins including two classics - and these would be at the classic distance or greater. That's a strong resume even if Shared Belief were to win another G1 against older horses. It would give Tonalist two victories over California Chrome and two victories over older horses. Tonalist would likely take three year old honors as well en route to Horse of the Year. He's the only three year old still alive who raced in the JCGC.
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs.
5. Bayern - tied (BC Classic, 10 furlongs)
Bayern would need some help. He would need to win the Classic AND the G1 Cigar Mile in order to win HOTY or top three year old.
9. Lea - tied (?????)
This is another difficult one. Something more than the winning of a prep race and the BC Classic would be necessary. The G1 Cigar Mile or G1 Clark Handicap is an option. However, it looks unlikely that he will be making the BC Classic at this point which he would need.
10. Moreno - tied (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs)
He likewise needs help - and the same scenario that Lea faces. Itsmyluckyday has at least run in and won a number of other races.
10. VE Day tied (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup)
He is new on the scene, but he did win the Travers Stakes. His winning out would make a strong case for Horse of the Year, and at least champion three year old.
10. Wicked Strong (G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup)
How can each horse win?
Horse (Next Race, distance)
Analysis
Last result, if not already posted above.
1. Palace Malice (retired)
Probably can't. Chrome would have to fail to win another race and lose champion three year old to another horse who did not win the BC Classic. I'm thinking Shared Belief wins the Awesome Again, but loses in the BC Classic...and none of the other contenders finish as noted below. Not completely ruling him out yet. After this weekend I think he still has an outside chance.
2. California Chrome
I actually wonder if California Chrome might be run after the G1 Breeders Cup Classic. He rested up well for the Fall racing season - and to do so for just two races when he may be reaching his peak form may be a waste of his talent. Then again, if he is likely to run as a 4 year old, why not rest up. I am eager to see him go against Bayern again. They are 1-1 right now. If he did run in the fall, a return to the site of his greatest victory - Churchill Downs might be just the ticket in the G1 Clark, rather than something like the Cigar Mile. However, both races have appeal to show versatility...a win at the 8 furlong distance could prove that he can go a mile and 10 furlongs securing victories (and I'd get to see him again) like Palace Malice. Then again, others are so unimpressed with his breeding that an 8 furlong win might not spike the interest. Claiborne Farm was proud of the fact that Pulpit was the grand sire of all the Triple Crown race winners this year.
3. Wise Dan (G1 Shadwell Turf Mile)
Mr. Lopresti mentioned the G1 Clark as a potential for Dan - so it seems we may be thinking along the same lines. That could be some race if California Chrome, Wise Dan, Bayern, and even Shared Belief were to show up in it. I know this is a lot of dreaming, but Shared Belief has had a fairly light schedule and won with relative ease in his races despite the gamesmanship displayed in his last effort. What a coup for Churchill, if it were to happen.
G1 Shadwell Turf Mile
4. Shared Belief - tied
No change.
4. Tonalist - tied
No change.
6. Bayern - tied (BC Classic, 10 furlongs)
I left out the G1 Clark Handicap as a possibility for Bayern. He has two wins at 8 furlongs so this makes sense as a possible choice. And he did run well in the Derby Trial over the surface so this might be a better fit than the Cigar Mile distance and track wise.
7. Main Sequence
His impressive win in the G1 Joe Hirsch has put him in the picture as a possible HOTY. Its an outside chance because if Wise Dan should win out his name recognition might eclipse that of Main Sequence, but his efforts are remarkable.
G1 Joe Hirsch, 12 furlongs
G1 Sword Dancer, 12 furlongs
G1 United Nations, 11 furlongs
I do not know if there are any more G1 turf races carded after the Breeders Cup. He would likely need one more win in addition to his Breeders Cup win to best Wise Dan should he win out.
It also seems the G1 Canadian International may be on his schedule as well.
I hope he decides to run in the Breeders Cup Turf to face some of the horses that were besting him across the pond.
Steve Haskin had an interesting column on this subject:
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2014/10/07/beware-the-wise-dan-curse.aspx
How can each horse win?
Horse (Next Race, distance)
Analysis
Last result, if not already posted above.
1. Palace Malice (retired)
The more I think about it the more I think that Palace Malice has little to no chance of winning Horse of the Year. Wise Dan's latest injury put that in more perspective.
2. California Chrome
He has to win the Classic or another G1 race like the Clark Handicap.
3. Wise Dan
Its a long shot now. Steve Haskin's suggestion that mountains must be moved to align the stars for a Wise Dan HOTY three-peat would have to work overtime.
I still think he has an outside chance. I had hoped he might even make it to the Clark, but that seems like too big an ask.
If Zivo Moreno, Fed Biz, or the Last Gunfighter were to win rather than one of those on this list were to win the BC Classic, the case could be made that their resume was inadequate to get HOTY.
There are two other horses who have 3 G1 wins on the list like Wise Dan. California Chrome and Main Sequence. If neither horse distinguishes himself and the others do not win - they will remain tied in G1s. The question would then be
4. Shared Belief - tied
No change. Some may give Shared Belief the edge (he is at the top of the NTRA rankings after all. However, I believe he is tied with Tonalist at this point because the Belmont Stakes is a Classic...and given the choice between the Pacific Classic and the Belmont Stakes I would think most voters would prefer to win the Belmont Stakes. The tiebreaker is still the BC Classic. While they are tied, I do think the fact that Tonalist has won three races on one track raises a big question mark. Shared Belief has won his races this year on 4 different tracks (2 dirt/2 synthetic).
4. Tonalist - tied
No change.
4. Bayern - tied
No change.
Bayern only has one G1 win, but he has defeated the Kentucky Derby winner soundly in a G2 race. He has traveled around the country and shown himself to be probably the most durable three year old. Certainly California Chrome deserves high marks for his efforts since he sports a better record in top races, but Bayern has been strong as well.
7. Main Sequence
With Wise Dan likely out of the picture for the remainder of the year, he has a strong shot at winning the turf male eclipse award if he can win the Breeders Cup Turf.
We'll see how his taking on his peers from Europe goes in the US.
Everything I read its all about the three year olds for Horse of the Year.
Bayern
California Chrome
Shared Belief
Tonalist
Who's it going to be?
I am skeptical of Bayern because his winning it would with just two G1 races under his belt be anti-climactic in my book, especially given that Shared Belief has 2 G1 wins over elders, California Chrome has 2 Classic wins with the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and a Santa Anita Derby as well, and Tonalist has a G1 win against elders and another in a Classic. This is why I have suggested if he wants HOTY he really should run in and win another race whether the Clark Handicap or the Cigar Mile.
But I know the thinking - how many Classic winners have run in either race the year they won the Classic? 0
How can each of Taz's Top 10 win HOTY?
Horse
Analysis
Last result, if not already posted above.
1. Palace Malice (retired)
Probably can't. Chrome would have to fail to win another race and lose champion three year old to another horse who did not win the BC Classic. I'm thinking Shared Belief loses in the BC Classic...and none of the other contenders finish as noted below. Not completely ruling him out yet. And Mr. Watchmaker indicates that he may race again. This year? We'll see - probably not but the Paulick Report notes that Mr. Campbell is 80% certain he'll race again which is great for racing.
2. California Chrome (G1 Breeders Cup Classic, 10 furlongs)
Chrome is still the most accomplished three year old. He is still the top three year old no matter what the "what have you done for me lately NTRA polls say". He has won two Classics. I love Shared Belief, but his impressive efforts come against a questionable set of West Coast elders.
3. Wise Dan (G1 Shadwell Turf Mile)
Dan has potentially no more G1s on his schedule after his ankle injury sidelines him for the Breeders Cup. If he heals impressively and can make the Clark Handicap which I see as highly unlikely I think he gets a shot at it. Otherwise, its likely going to a three year old.
4. Shared Belief (G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs)
Would winning the BC Classic be enough to win HOTY? Yes.
G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs.
4. Tonalist - tied
He is right in the mix after his second win at a Classic distance or more. Can he win outside of Belmont Park?
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs.
4. Bayern - tied (BC Classic, 10 furlongs)
7. Moreno - tied
He likewise needs help - and the same scenario that Lea faces. Itsmyluckyday has at least run in and won a number of other races. Moreno would need to win more than just the BC Classic. He would have to also enter and win the G1 Cigar Mile or the G1 Clark Handicap because he just has not won enough this year.
8. VE Day tied
He too would have to win more than just the G1 BC Classic. See Moreno. A strong finish could still make him a contender.
5th G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, 10 furlongs.
Its more like a top 8 now.
How can each of Taz's Top 10 win HOTY?
Horse
Analysis
Last result, if not already posted above.
1. Main Sequence
This horse has done it all. He has won coast to coast at varying distances in excess of the Classic distance here on turf.
I think with this win against top European horses he has won the top grass Eclipse.
Is this enough for HOTY? I do not know. It is a shame there is not one more top turf race that he could enter.
I wonder if Mr. Motion might try him in the G1 Clark Handicap on dirt?
G1 BC Turf, 12 furlongs
2. California Chrome (G1 Breeders Cup Classic, 10 furlongs)
Chrome is still the most accomplished three year old male. He is still the top three year old no matter what the "what have you done for me lately NTRA polls say". He has won two Classics.
I think the reward is still up for grabs. He still possesses more G1 wins against three year olds than any three year old horse. He still has more stakes wins this year than any 3 year old horse.
I think he should run in the Clark Handicap. Selfishly, I would prefer the Cigar Mile but having just completed a book on Churchill Downs - the Clark is more prestigious and a route race.
Despite this, Chrome needs a win against elders...to make his case definitive against the other 3 top three year olds.
3rd G1 BC Classic, 10 furlongs.
3. Shared Belief (G1 Awesome Again, 9 furlongs) tied
Well, he suffered his first loss...and he certainly had excuses.
He should be pointed to the G1 ClarK Handicap UNLESS his connections plan to campaign him in Florida at Gulfstream Park in the Hal's Hope AND Donn Handicap.
4th G1 BC Classic, 10 furlongs.
3. Tonalist - tied
He is right in the mix after his second win at a Classic distance or more. Can he win outside of Belmont Park?
Not in California. He should be pointed to the Clark Handicap or the Cigar Mile due to his late blooming season.
5th G1 BC Classic, 10 furlongs
3. Bayern - tied (BC Classic, 10 furlongs)
Well, he won the Classic in impressive fashion on a speed favoring track. Even I questioned his distance pedigree earlier in the year because I did not think he had the foundation at that point - the bottom to go 9.5 furlongs. Now he does and he has shown that he can win at 10 furlongs - though 9 furlongs is still his best distance.
Any subsequent race he runs in without a rabbit, his competition is crazy.
His fractions were impressive because he ran faster here than he did at Saratoga and earned a different result...
:23.12, :46.44, 1:10.22, 1:34.16, and a final of 1:59.88 for: 23.12/23.32/24.18/25.72 which is a really slow last 1/4.
Still, the final time was pretty quick...
That said, is he HOTY? In my opinion - no. He has campaign across the country and won 2 top G1 races...defeated the Kentucky Derby winner twice...and won the BC Classic against top elders and also won a G2 at 7 furlongs. However, I just believe the outcome in some of the later races could have an impact on the voting...
If Tonalist or California Chrome or Shared Belief were to win the G1 Clark Handicap - I believe that they would be more deserving of HOTY honors than Bayern despite his Classic win.
G1 BC Classic, 10 furlongs.
6. Wise Dan (G1 Shadwell Turf Mile)
Dan has potentially no more G1s on his schedule after his ankle injury sidelines him for the Breeders Cup. If he heals impressively and can make the Clark Handicap which I see as highly unlikely I think he gets a shot at it. Otherwise, its likely going to a three year old.
7. Untapable
I love Untapable. She is certainly worthy of consideration. However, I think there has been much better competition in the three year old ranks - and while she deserves high marks for stepping up in class - her 5th place finish hurts her.
Now, if she were to take on the males and win the G1 Cigar Mile or G1 Clark Handicap - that would certainly bolster her resume significantly.
Zenyatta took on males and barely lost - Untapable finished 5th. If she had finished a close second then she might deserve more consideration. For a filly though, I do consider her campaign superior to Palace Malice at this point.
G1 BC Distaff, 9 furlongs
G1 Cotillion, 8.5 furlongs
5th G1 Haskell Stakes, 9 furlongs
G1 Mother Goose, 8.5 furlongs
G1 Kentucky Oaks, 9 furlongs
G2 Fairground Oaks, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Rachel Alexandra, 8.5 furlongs
8. Palace Malice (retired?)
Probably can't. Chrome would have to fail to win another race and lose champion three year old to another horse who did not win the BC Classic. I'm thinking Shared Belief loses in the BC Classic...and none of the other contenders finish as noted below. Not completely ruling him out yet. And Mr. Watchmaker indicates that he may race again. This year? We'll see - probably not but the Paulick Report notes that Mr. Campbell is 80% certain he'll race again which is great for racing.
Horse of the Year Is A Mess
http://www.timesunion.com/sports/article/Horse-of-the-Year-is-a-mess-5865441.php
This from July
http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/11186398/who-horse-year
Really only three of the horses listed here are still in consideration...at that point Main Sequence had just won the UN...but no one could foresee his dominance. Tonalist had only won the Belmont Stakes.
Horse of the Year Talk with a nod to Untapable
http://www.sunherald.com/2014/11/04/5894357/up-the-backstretch-2014-horse.html
HOTY Cloudy
http://www.saratogian.com/sports/20141103/scott-column-breeders-cup-clouds-horse-of-the-year-picture
I disagree with the statement that Tonalist winning would have created confusion. He would have had 3 G1 wins and two G1s against elders as a three year old and would have been a worthy three year old champion and HOTY UNLESS California Chrome happened to finish well which he did.
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/horse-of-the-year-it-aint-over-till-its-over/
Only three of the last 15 winners of Horse of the Year won as few as two Grade 1 events: Ghostzapper in 2004; Tiznow in 2000; and Charismatic in 1999.
Interestingly, Pollack thinks the Malibu for three year olds at 7 furlongs contested on December 27th.
However, I would think the better test for Bayern if he did not want to face the quirky surface at Churchill Downs in the G1 Clark Handicap, would be to try the G1 Cigar Mile.
Heck, Goldencents may even be pointing to this race.
I know people will say, "Why should a mile race decide Horse of the Year", but Bayern would then have won two G1 races against older horses and a G1 at 8, 9, and 10 furlongs.
It just depends how much he wants the HOTY honors.
As it looks now, the rest of the three year olds may be put on the shelf.
Of course, Bayern has campaigned long and hard having not begun his racing until this year, and then racing twice at Santa Anita before being shipped all over the country to 7 other tracks (Oaklawn, Churchill Downs, Pimlico, Belmont Park, Monmouth Park, Saratoga, and Philadelphia Park). With all of this travel it would be a shame for this horse after all this travel and success not to get some recognition. I do not think any other top three year old has raced 10 times. This horse is a warrior and as much as I am a California Chrome fan I think the three year olds still in training with Bayern and Chrome at the top of the list this year deserve a lot of credit for the tough campaigns that they have endured.
I think Main Sequence should get it, but that's a pipe dream living in this country. Undefeated this year- 4 G1 wins.
Right and he may still run in the Japan Cup or the Hong Kong Vase.
If he were to win either of those races I think the award should go to him.
However, Ray Pollack has a good point - its been 5 years since a dirt horse has won HOTY - so if it goes to Main Sequence while I think it would be great to break the preference in favor of dirt horses what impact would that have on our breeding industry, especially in the face of such a competitive bunch of three year olds this year?
However, Ray Pollack has a good point - its been 5 years since a dirt horse has won HOTY -
Well, I guess that is a point to consider for the voters. There are a number of dirt horses to consider, though they all have flaws in their records. Untapable might be the closest to flawless for dirt horses, but Bayern and Chrome are close. Chrome has a better overall record imo, but never beat older and Bayern has beaten him twice now.
Main Sequence
Bayern
Chrome
Untapable
...one of those 4 should win HOY I would think.
In other divisions I really hope Lady Eli wins the 2yo filly award.
I hope Lady Eli wins too.
She was magnificent at the Breeders Cup.
I am sorry we missed her in the Miss Grillo - the day after Super Saturday but we'll be looking for her in the future.
It seems like California Chrome will rest on his laurels which as I noted - is fine with me. I would have loved so see him run in the Clark - but he has had a long year.
It also seems that there is talk of him going to Japan.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/88593/california-chrome-will-campaign-in-2015
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 06, 2014, 06:13:27 AM
I hope Lady Eli wins too.
She was magnificent at the Breeders Cup.
I am sorry we missed her in the Miss Grillo - the day after Super Saturday but we'll be looking for her in the future.
It seems like California Chrome will rest on his laurels which as I noted - is fine with me. I would have loved so see him run in the Clark - but he has had a long year.
It also seems that there is talk of him going to Japan.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/88593/california-chrome-will-campaign-in-2015
I hope he runs again...I really enjoy watching him. But that's all up to his connections.
I agree. He seems to be at his peak right now - but it has been a long year and depending upon what they choose to do with him...if Japan could be in the mix - well - why would they rule out Dubai?
I think it will be very interesting to see what happens with the three year olds.
A strong case can be made for 4 three year olds...possibly winning horse of the year.
Shared Belief with another win would tie California Chrome with G1 wins and this would be 3 against older horses.
Could the G1 Malibu Stakes be on his schedule? I am uncertain a victory there would bolster his resume much.
Shared Belief was not flattered by the finish of the older horses that he bested in his two G1 races...though Toast of New York did finish well in the race.
A victory outside the state of California would likely do him good in either the Cigar Mile, or better yet - the Clark Handicap. The Cigar Mile I think is interesting because it would give he or Bayern a G1 victory at 8, 9, and 10 furlongs this year. Also, if Goldencents points to the Cigar Mile then he could earn the distinction of beating a two-time champion miler.
California Chrome seems unlikely to contest another race this year.
Bayern has been such a warrior with his many travels it would seem a lot to have him travel East of the Mississippi for the 8th time.
And that leaves Tonalist...
Would Mr. Clement target another race for Tonalist? I do not know.
The Cigar Mile would be more convenient, but a Clark win could make a strong case for him - also depending who else is in the race.
Will Take Charge turned his win there into a closing argument for top three year old.
We'll see.
If no three year old runs in any of these races I think California Chrome will take it as people reflect on his BC performance and how the Pennsylvania Derby did have the 1st and 3rd place finishers in the Classic making that race the best prep.
Would that make California Chrome HOTY? It could.
The Toronto Sun thinks it will be Bayern.
http://www.torontosun.com/2014/11/01/breeders-cup-classic-winner-bayern-likely-will-capture-us-horse-of-year-honours
The Daily News thinks its a toss-up.
http://www.dailynews.com/events/20141101/debatable-call-at-breeders-cup-leaves-horse-of-the-year-race-in-chaos
And Main Sequence tops the final NTRA Poll...
http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/breeders/2014/11/03/main-sequence-tops-bayern-final-nrta-thoroughbred-poll/18427533/
1. Main Sequence (Horse of the Year/Champion Turf Horse)
2. Bayern (Champion Three Year Old Male?)
3. California Chrome
4. Untapable (Champion Three Year Old Filly)
5. Shared Belief
6. Wise Dan
7. Goldencents
8. Tonalist
9. Palace Malice (Champion Older Male?)
10. Work All Week (Champion Sprinter)
Could that be a forecast of Eclipse voting?
Here is a suggestion that it should be between the top three year olds including Untapable...with Bayern and California Chrome...
http://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Disputes_Reign_Over_Bayerns_BC_Classic_Win_123#
Taz ... Golden cents is retired and already relocated ... the only place he'll be running anymore is in a pasture. ;)
Whoops. Looks like I've been sleeping. Good for him. :headshake:
Horse (next race if one is scheduled)
1. Main Sequence (G1 Hong Kong Vase December 14/G1 Japan Cup November 30)
He is the only other horse who still may have another race scheduled.
2. California Chrome (G1 Hollywood Cup, November 29)
I am glad California Chrome's connections are making an effort with California Chrome. Its obvious he came out of the race strong and they probably want to see if he really does need two preps before he delivers a top performance in planning for next year. Now, this would be a G1 in three year old company so there could be some detractors. The race has also been shortened from 10 to 9 furlongs.
3. Shared Belief
3. Tonalist
3. Bayern
6. Wise Dan (G1 Clark Handicap? November 28)
The real irony would be if all the three year olds pass on the Clark and Dan is able to enter it. I doubt it. Its less than three weeks away and so far as I know he has not returned to training.
7. Untapable
8. Palace Malice (retired?)
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 12, 2014, 11:30:08 AM
Horse (next race if one is scheduled)
1. Main Sequence (G1 Hong Kong Vase December 14/G1 Japan Cup November 30)
He is the only other horse who still may have another race scheduled.
2. California Chrome (G1 Hollywood Cup, November 29)
I am glad California Chrome's connections are making an effort with California Chrome. Its obvious he came out of the race strong and they probably want to see if he really does need two preps before he delivers a top performance in planning for next year. Now, this would be a G1 in three year old company so there could be some detractors. The race has also been shortened from 10 to 9 furlongs.
3. Shared Belief
3. Tonalist
3. Bayern
6. Wise Dan (G1 Clark Handicap? November 28)
The real irony would be if all the three year olds pass on the Clark and Dan is able to enter it. I doubt it. Its less than three weeks away and so far as I know he has not returned to training.
7. Untapable
8. Palace Malice (retired?)
Wise Dan is coming off a fracture and although he is healing nicely there is no way you'll see him in a race before next spring, in my opinion, if ever at all, he's coming on eight and his connections aren't exactly known for being adventurous. Palace Malice very well may come back if it looks as though he is going to recover and recapture his form as last I heard there was no stud deal in place for him. Shared Belief may run in the Malibu (Gr1, 7f at Santa Anita December 26). I would also think that wouldn't be the worst spot in the world for Bayern although Baffert will have several others, e.g. Chitu, Midnight Hawk, etc., for that one. If Chrome stubs his toe Thanksgiving weekend at Del Mar, Bayern could further strengthen his case for an Eclipse or two by winning the Malibu--especially if he can beat Shared Belief again.
Thanks for the update.
I think the Malibu results will have no impact on the 3 year old/HOTY voting.
Its a sprint for three year olds - not a route.
If they want to run a shorter race - ship to Aqueduct for the Cigar Mile.
I also doubt that California Chrome's race will have any impact at all on three year old/HOTY voting.
It too is a restricted race on grass - and while a route...its restricted.
Now - the case could be made that three year olds are the best this year so as a result this would help them...but I don't buy it. Maybe I'm becoming cynical in my old age.
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 13, 2014, 02:18:29 PM
Thanks for the update.
I think the Malibu results will have no impact on the 3 year old/HOTY voting.
Its a sprint for three year olds - not a route.
If they want to run a shorter race - ship to Aqueduct for the Cigar Mile.
I also doubt that California Chrome's race will have any impact at all on three year old/HOTY voting.
It too is a restricted race on grass - and while a route...its restricted.
Now - the case could be made that three year olds are the best this year so as a result this would help them...but I don't buy it. Maybe I'm becoming cynical in my old age.
I think that the Hollywood Derby and/or the Malibu could have big implications. In a year that is begging for tiebreakers, this is what is needed. If Chrome wins he'll have done enough and should win both accolades. If voters can give Champion Older Male to a turf horse as they have several times in the last few years, then a win should only bolster Chrome's resume. A loss will more than likely do him in as he will have ended the year with four consecutive losses. I think Shared Belief needed the BCC win to have a chance because of his late start. Bayern is another story. Training wise, 7f in late December, at your home base, makes more sense after the campaign he's had and before that in which he is about to embark. If he can beat a major rival along the way, he'll end up with three Gr1's two Gr2's ranging from 7-10f and the only time the whole gang got together at 10f, he was the winner. That is quite a resume for a horse who was unraced one year ago. The finalists for Horse of the Year will probably be Bayern, Chrome and Main Sequence. As for NYRA and the Cigar Mile, I wish them well. As for the Clark, few things please me more than to watch connections stick it to Churchill Downs. I think the best performances by older horses were turned in by Palace Malice and Game on Dude, neither of which made through August and Dude just couldn't maintain consistency at his age. I do hope Wise Dan at least gets considered for champion turf horse.
I understand the need for a tiebreaker.
I just do not see it with a 9 furlong restricted turf race and a 7 furlong restricted three year old sprint how anything will be settled.
The races to break the tie are the Cigar Mile or the Clark Handicap.
The fact that none of the connections are pointing to these races is fine - but tells me - none are interested in really breaking the tie. Sure some of them have suggested that these races are tiebreakers, but after running as three year old males against elders - besting them...I would think a route allowance race on dirt against graded stakes horses would be more impressive to me than these choices. Just my opinion.
I am a big fan of the horses - I hope they do well - but if I were a voter - a result in any of these races would not answer any the following questions:
1. Can Bayern best the top three year olds twice in a route race without an ideal trip - everything going his way?
2. Can California Chrome win an open company race? A race against top three year old dirt horses post-Belmont?
3. Can Shared Belief win a dirt route race against top dirt horses?
4. Can Tonalist beat the best of the west when they are rested?
I concur on the sticking it to Churchill Downs point...
And I would add two other top older horse performances...Moreno's Whitney win...and Lea's Donn Handicap win...those were impressive races. I'm an Itsmyluckdayfan...but Moreno's Whitney I think was more impressive with the field than Istmyluckday's Woodward win.
If Chrome loses - its on turf - against turf horses - it changes few minds. If you liked Chrome for three year old/HOTY with the 3 losses - you'll like him with the 4. If you thought he should be HOTY with his current resume - a win will bolster it more but your mind will be unchanged. If you thought Chrome was passed his prime a win will do little since you'll say he couldn't do it against elders or dirt three year olds.
If Bayern loses - it really hurts him - if he wins - he's already won at 7 furlongs in the Woody Stephens - and arguably that field was superior to the field he'll face in terms of sprinters - in the Malibu. If Bayern wins it says he's a better sprinter. Did anyone think Shared Belief was a champion sprinter?
I agree that with all Bayern has been through - it makes more sense to keep him at home - but then why run him at all? If he came out of the race strong and good - then send him to NY...to get another open company win in the G1 Cigar Mile. Then he can be sent to the farm for some R&R rather than being kept in training throughout December.
So really I do see the race potentially having 1 impact on Bayern...negative...if he wins its expected against a top three year old who is not a sprinter...and whose turn of foot on dirt is not as sharp as it is on synthetic. And when it comes down to it - because the G2 Woody Stephens has a better field - I would dismiss the effort against Shared Belief.
If Shared Belief wins - it does nothing for his resume either for HOTY - though I think a win against Bayern would show he could sprint - but he's a gelding so what does it matter?
STEVE HASKIN: The case for Bayern
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2014/11/11/bayern-s-feats-shouldn-t-be-overlooked.aspx
http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/blog/_/name/ehalt_bob/id/11891469/will-grass-greener-california-chrome
Plan B, in case California Chrome fizzles in his turf work, would be to run in the Native Diver, also on Nov. 29. It's on the dirt, but is only a Grade 3 stakes and would lack the charisma that could come from a Grade 1 win on a new surface. Naming California Chrome Horse of the Year off a final push from a Grade 3 stakes seems a stretch.
Quote from: Man o Taz on November 12, 2014, 11:30:08 AM
Horse (next race if one is scheduled)
1. Main Sequence (G1 Hong Kong Vase December 14/G1 Japan Cup November 30)
Main Sequence is in training for a 2015 campaign, but will not race again this year. He will most likely go to GP for a race and then Dubai (Sheema classic).
Too bad. He had a short season here - I thought he might take a race in Japan or Hong Kong.
Well, one HOTY candidate was in action this weekend and the victory was emphatic...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0kIXJHR_zo
But, as stated above - I don't think this influences many folks...
Those who like Chrome will like him more.
Those who said he couldn't win against top three year olds and elders in an open company dirt race will say he didn't do it again.
But he did beat the G1 Queens Plate winner...
We'll see what Shared Belief and Bayern bring to the table...if anything...
I like California Chrome. He won The Santa Anita. He won the Kentucky Derby. He won The Preakness. He probably would have won the Belmont with a good hoof.
Don't think you can use the Penn Derby against him. Throw it out.
He came in 3rd in the Breeders Cup Classic by a fast closing neck.
And he won a graded stakes race the first time he tried turf.
Not sure what Chrome has to do, to win HOY honors. He deserves it.
I agree.
He's my top candidate.
I love Bayern's durability, but Chrome entered the toughest contests throughout the year and contested them well.
If three year olds as a class are the top runners this year, then those races should not receive the normal treatment that they have in the past.
Chrome ran in and won three of them. Then he threw in the bonus of the Hollywood Derby.
Bayern ran in and won two of them...
Tonalist ran in and won two of them...
Shared Belief ran in and won two of them...
And Main Sequence ran in and won all his turf starts, but is on the shelf prepping for 2015.
Tonalist is on the shelf.
Bayern and Shared Belief may contest the Malibu...but to me that is a weaker race because its not a route race. If Shared Belief wins they'll discount Bayern's Classic win. If Bayern wins they'll discount Shared Belief which is silly since this is a sprint.
So really I do not see either horse getting to Chrome in the voting...
Main Sequence could be the determinative factor seeing how many votes he takes from Bayern or Chrome.
I would be surprised if the HOY vote comes down to two other horses besides Chrome and Bayern. Main Sequence is undefeated, all in G1 races, but I kind of get the feeling he is not going to stick in the voters' minds all that much when it comes time to cast the ballots. A turf horse has won the award the last two years, plus he only raced 4 times and really was not in the "limelight" all that much, despite his record.
It bears mentioning that an older, dirt/main track, male horse has not won HOY since Curlin in 2008. That's pretty significant, and it figures to go to a horse outside that division again this year. Hard to get past one of the 3yos, with the dearth of highest-quality, older, dirt males once more. Shared Belief is the other logical horse, but he just didn't do enough this year, mainly due to injury. That's not his "fault", but it had an impact on his campaign. Had he won the Classic he would be a frontrunner for the award, but the rest of his resume without that race isn't enough (only my opinion and I don't vote!).
Malibu result aside, I think Chrome will probably get it. He would be far from the most brilliant winner in years past, but he's probably good enough this year imho, plus he has that vox populi thing going for him. The G1 turf win definitely didn't hurt his chances. He would have rolled in that race at CD though (and I am a Hopper fan). In addition, the Bayern-haters will probably vote Chrome (or go home!)
Good points all around.
The only negative I see for Chrome other than not besting elders or dirt three year olds post Preakness is his connections. Some people I have noticed still reference the Belmont comments.
However, I think most people have moved beyond them and the fact that Del Mar set a meet record for the Hollywood Derby is also important.
I am a firm believer that HOTY should come down to what happens on the track. However, I also believe that intangibles matter - albeit for not much more than 5 percent - but in a close race it could have an impact.
I believe many folks - even outside of the horse racing world - enjoyed Chrome's story.
http://www.saratogian.com/sports/20141207/veitch-horse-of-the-year-comes-down-to-a-pick-6
http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/blog/_/name/ehalt_bob/id/11974698/upon-further-review-california-chrome
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/wgoh/archive/2014/12/02/debating-the-eclipse-by-eric-mitchell.aspx#comment-1724833705
And two of the top 3 "moments of the year" feature California Chrome victories.
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2014/12/05/nod-goes-to-breeders-cup-classic-as-year-s-top-race.aspx
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/simon-california-chrome-has-earned-horse-of-the-year/
http://www.forbes.com/sites/teresagenaro/2014/12/01/with-hollywood-derby-win-california-chrome-back-in-the-race-for-horse-of-the-year/
http://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-horse-year-choice-clear
http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/11974007/a-horse-year-vote-bayern
http://www.dailynews.com/sports/20141127/right-now-bayern-looks-like-horse-of-the-year
Today, I would cast my Eclipse ballot for California Chrome as top 3-year-old male. He did too much for the sport to be ignored.
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/reilly-main-sequence-not-chrome-should-top-horse-of-the-year-list/
Shared Belief worked an easy 6F in prep for the Malibu on SA opening day:
Golden Gate 12/16/2014 All Weather Track 6F 1:15.00 Handily 1/7
edit: I don't actually think he is a strong HOY candidate, but not sure where to post this...
I think he is. Despite my thinking that the Chrome victory on turf would not sway voters, I have read a number of articles where the writers indicated that they were indeed swayed by that victory. Of course, I think it depends upon Bayern being in the race as well, but it looks like Bayern is done for the year.
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2014/12/16/california-chrome-my-horse-of-the-year-choice.aspx
www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/horse-of-the-year-an-increasingly-harder-puzzle-to-solve/
Shared Belief looked good winning the G1 Malibu at Del Mar.
The issue in that race is that he beat a long shot in second.
Here are some thoughts from racing pundits...
Chrome - http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/Horse-racing-The-case-for-California-Chrome-5992429.php
Chrome - http://isportsweb.com/2015/01/05/horse-racing-examining-2014-horse-year-mess/
Shared Belief - http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/dec/26/santa-anita-malibu-shared-belief/
Chrome - http://www.reviewjournal.com/columns-blogs/richard-eng/horse-year-vote-difficult-race-call
???? - http://www.troyrecord.com/sports/20141222/scott-last-look-at-the-horse-of-the-year-race
Bayern - http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/othersports/2014-eclipse-awards-voters-shouldnt-overthink-horse-of-the-year-bayern-but-should-think-about-trainerart-sherman/2014/12/18/80806ebe-8656-11e4-a702-fa31ff4ae98e_story.html
http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2015/jan/03/eclipse-awards-california-chrome/